LongLeftFlank

Hmm, seems the Russians continue to bombard the perimeter of villages shielding the Sviatohirsk massif. But unclear how much ground game they're really putting into that or to Lyman. Nothing further on that alleged crossing behind Lyman reported a few days back either.

@akd posted another snip from this thread earier, and it's worth reading in full for the broader context of this operation. (I've drunk my fill of the Great Amphibious Scrapyard Caper at this point personally, but by all means, carry on) Any Peaky Blinders fans out there? A bit far fetched at times, of course, but some of the acting was fantastic.... Alfie Solomons: See, Oi'm guessing, right? That all the *bad* ideas 'round 'ere, they're you. Right? They're all you. Aren't they....

It looks like they indeed tried multiple crossings, smoke, maskirovka, saturation artillery prep, etc., as discussed above. Looks like they even let infantry lead for a change, and actually made some headway in expanding their tiny bridgehead! But for some reason they then let vehicles pile up AFTER the crossing, 1941 style, instead of getting them to the front. They would have lost the pontoons anyway, but spared themselves the photo op of the half-drowned scrapyard.

'Defeat in detail', the favourite of the Great Captains of history, straight back to Megiddo. ... But I am concerned also about the condition of the local Ukrainian forces. Based on that Polish gent's operational summary cited above, it looks like 17th Brigade is their local mech reserve (speak up if I'm wrong), and took quite a beating from the RU barrage all along the river frontage they had to hold over the past week. So their victory has come at a price.

Yup, quite likely. They've been trying for 'cauldrons' since the start, of course (hell, back to 1928 lol). And Stavka has got to be desperate to show some kind of offensive success, however limited. 'Facts on the ground'. [Because, you know, securing the other half of yet another Rust Belt Superfund province (after blowing it to bits first) is just sooooo economically valuable!]

Agreed, but if you look at maps of the area and reporting on prior pages, you'll see that that area is heavily fortified. This is a heavy industrial zone, liberally sprinkled with factories, refineries, quarries and whatnot, with Soviet era bomb shelters beneath. Heavier, taller buildings, not just farm villages. Shades of Mariupol (but different as well). As I noted before, it's a bit like Germany giving up in the Ardennes in 1940 and instead punching down toward Metz to roll up the Maginot Line instead. Can the RA clear this zone, given time? Sure. Will they have anything left after to counterpunch against a UA offensive against Izyum or the (remoter) Kherson-Donetsk front? Aye, there's the rub. ...I remain hopeful about the thesis of Steve @Battlefront.comand others here that the Russian army goes 'bankrupt' per Hemingway: 'In two ways. First slowly and then all at once.' But until that collapse, it's also going to cost a lot of Ukrainian blood to make the Russians bleed out on those forward positions. They're going to be very hard to resupply -- this is where the RuAF is most active -- and there is a very real danger of isolation and sieges. So I wouldn't be surprised if the UA finally evacuated the Donbass east of Seviersk. Hopefully with the idea of retaking it later, once it destroys another Russian army (Izyum, Kherson, Zaporizhe, pick one or maybe two. You know my vote....).

Polish scholar evaluates the overall operation and the debacle at Bilohorivka, from RU sources, with maps. Translated below.... How was it under #Bilohorivka? Two days ago, you could read an excerpt from the action thanks to @ kms_d4k The Russians are shocked by the development of accidents and the losses. Today you can see the full version of the events from the Russian point of view 2. The entire operation lasted from May 2 to 10, but battles with the Russian survivors are still ongoing. A massive forcing operation that is not over yet 3. On May 2-3, Russian forces crossed Seversky Donets near Shipilovka [break 1]. After the crossing, the Russian army joined the battle with the garrison of the settlement. There were no troops ready to fight in Shipilovka, the garrison withdrew towards Privolye. 4. Russian units dispersed in small groups around the area. The fighting started near Novodruzhsk, on the outskirts of Privolye and #Bilohorivka. Until the occupation of Shipilovka, a relatively small calculation of forces and resources was involved, which was less than half the BTG 5. On May 4, the bridgehead near Shipilovka [crossing 1] was lost. It happened most likely due to the underestimation of enemy forces in the surrounding settlements. A full-fledged battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was stationed in Privolye, which was soon reinforced by Novodrużesk and #Lysychansk. 6. On the night of May 4-5 and in the afternoon of May 5, on the left bank of the Donets Siewierski from Serebrianka to Privolye, massive artillery preparations began [yellow arrows]. According to reports from local chats, the coast and the vicinity of Shipilovka "were littered with the corpses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine". 7. On May 5, Russian forces crossed Donets near Serebrianka [crossing 2]. It was not possible to get a bridgehead on the opposite bank: the combat-ready units from Siewiersk were transferred to Serebrianka. 8. Seversk itself included newly rotated units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from #Sieverodonetsk, which were replaced by territorial defense units and national battalions. Artillery preparations at the positions of the #Ukraina Armed Forces continued for a few more days. 9. On 7-8 May, Russian troops crossed Donets Siewierski, near #Bilohorivka. The Russian troops managed to occupy the dominant hills near the coast (the so-called Shipilovsky Mountains) and to capture the outskirts of Belogorovka along Pervomajska Street. 10. Subsequently, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation met fierce resistance from Ukrainian units. The fortified area of the #Ukraine Armed Forces was in a residential area and near the Cretaceous quarry 11. On May 8, the Allied forces began a full-fledged pontoon crossing [crossing 3] across Donets Seversky near #Bilohorivka to introduce armored vehicles into the battle. Ukrainian artillery began to operate along the passages 12. Before the failure of the first pontoon, several pieces of equipment were transferred to the opposite shore. Russian forces continued their offensive on #Bilohorivka, where the Ukrainians transferred their reserves from Siewiersk. At Sipiłowka, the Ukrainian troops were again thrown back to Privolye 13. On May 9, the pontoon crossing at #Bilohorivka [crossing 4] was restored. The transfer of up to 100 units of equipment began to the occupied bridgehead. 14. The approximate plan was to consolidate the success in #Bilohorivka and Shipilovka from Privolye, as well as prepare for the storming of Seversk. 15. For an unknown reason, the equipment was not put into combat and was left near the headland on the other side of the Shipilov Hills. Presumably, on the night of May 10, the Armed Forces of #Ukraine conducted air reconnaissance and discovered a huge accumulation of equipment near the crossing. 16. Ukr. artillery launched a massive artillery attack on the outskirts of the Shipilov Hills. Most of the equipment moved to the eastern shore of the Dońca Siewierski (with the exception of the BTG equipment used in the battles of Shipilovka and #Bilohorivka) was disabled. 17. On May 11-12, Russian troops from #Kreminna and #Rubizhne were handed over to the assault on Privolye by the Russian forces remaining on the west bank of the river. Fighting in this area continues. ... 4. A complicated situation under #Bilohorivka. Some of the Russian troops managed to survive (a lot of them had to be crossed) and are attacking the NE along #SiverskyiDonets. The Russians tried to evacuate them or send reinforcements, but the next crossing was destroyed by the Ukrainians. 5. Ros. They are gathering crossing equipment on the #SiverskyiDonets bend and will cross the river from the side of the captured #Rubizhne to connect with the unit from #Bilohorivka and go to the rear of the #Lysychansk defense. It is a very difficult place to defend due to possible attacks from 3 sides .

Further (unconfirmed) RA crossing of the river, to break into the more open countryside between Siversk and Sloviansk. Interesting, if true.... At #Izyum, the front has died down, artillery duels are underway, fighting continues NW from #Lyman. A lot of Russian equipment has been seen withdrawing towards #Donbas in #Borova. The Russians seem to have abandoned this line of attack. The Sviatohirsk monastery and wooded hills have taken a terrible pounding, but the Russians don't appear to have the wherewithal to assault it.

This was a great summary of the 700 pages, well done sir!

Can you take a hint? Or about 5? Shut this down, now.

Given your handle, I imagine this should resonate: P. We will accept battle? C. Certainly, why not? P. We are outnumbered three to one, and five to one on horse. What uninjured men you have are scared and hungry and desperate. C. That is the advantage we must press home. P. I was not aware that irony had military usage. C. We must win or die. Pompey's men have other options. Your point is well taken, and many of us here have been watching closely for signs of improvement, even in ancient tactical fundamentals like ambush and entrenchment. Having a back against the wall makes a difference. Russians aren't defending the Rodina, and they know it. So evolution for them is not yet less dangerous than disobeying orders.

Don't know how recent this is, but 79th AAB are the stalwart and seasoned defenders of the north face of the Sloviansk complex, including Lyman. Check out the terrain. Also, note mine roller. No traktor for Ivan! (also leaked beta video of CM3 engine, with beta sountrack)

....And since I used the word 'Zeitgeist' already, let me provide you a little palate cleansing schadenfreude.... [as surely as Sibelius must follow GWAR] Greater Russia cheerleader and contrarian nutjob extraordinaire John Helmer has been defenestrated from Moscow for all his strenuous efforts on behalf of the Comintern. For those who are strangely fascinated by the amazing mental contortions of otherwise intelligent human beings.... https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/05/exile.html He's basically one of those zealots whose last words in the Lubyanka basement were 'Long Live Sta--!' Except for the pistol round at the base of the skull part. He's rather fortunate to have been born a couple of generations late....

I would love to copy-replace Finland and Karelia above. Long live the Greater Finnic Elvish Uralia! Linux Imperium! [EDIT. Wow, right in step with the Zeitgeist of the previous 4 posts!] (speaking of Black Swan events btw)

LOL, barely visible on that black line.... Before / After

One of my usual sources, though not infallible: Per @Haiduk, Ukrainians have kept it vague how many forces they left to contest Lyman and its environs north of the river. They blew all the bridges some time ago, and I would assume left some nasty surprises behind as well. More to the ongoing "is it Mass? or is it Memorex?" discussion (yes, I'm an old codger), letting the Russians mass up and then 'punch at air' a lot of the time seems like a nice gloss on the overall strategy. Very Sun Tzu. Compare the German delaying action in the bocage above St. Lo, where a depleted division (352, with shredded bits of others) slow walked and bled 3-4 times the number of American forces for a full month. They employed a 'checkerboard' defence where the GIs had no idea what was waiting for them in each field until they went in. This is an echelon up, but not dissimilar?

Raihorodok and roll! [GWAR rulez!!!] ..... No, seriously, all that ground has been carefully studied, for weeks at least. All those crossings are canalized to the max, boggy forests. Let them get nice and strung out on the roads and then, linear barrage. You know, the one everyone was waiting for on that big column north of Kiev but which was a little out of reach for the UA artillery and air forces at that time? ...Not now though. We're long overdue for a nice Highway of Death in this war.

Terrific analysis here, all, although it's hard to keep up with all of it! There's a famous aerial photo I can't locate showing (I think) a Russian mech corps trapped at a river crossing at (I think) Vyazma, 1941. Acres of shattered wrecks. Quite the replay we're seeing here today.

And for yet another day, the RA flings its dwindling troops and firepower against the UA fortified zone. JasonC observed a while ago that at least since 1914, in order for artillery to be the 'killing machine', the enemy infantry needs to be compelled to leave his deep dugouts and man more vulnerable forward positions. And to compel him, you must attack those positions, even at great cost. That's the only method I can think of to justify this particular madness right now. Any other ideas from the bigger brains? ..... Longtime Forumites will recall that JasonC was also very insistent on the efficacy of the strategic bombing of shopping malls, particularly using scarce precision guided weapons. So as to deprive the populace of scented candles, overpriced running shoes and other essentials, thus inexorably breaking their will to resist....

For context, could you possibly remind us of the overall TD force size on 22 Feb and now? Round numbers, ISTR 140,000?

Do you never worry? Would it help?

Some folks pay good money for that.

I think this was pasted a few pages ago mate. Plus, on all topics unrelated to tyres, Telenko is, in the lingo of my teenager: 'suss'

Meanwhile, up at strat level... Horowitz's take on the likely end game, mainly stuff we all know here: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/09/five-ways-the-war-in-ukraine-could-end-view “Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please,” Machiavelli observed.... There is a more “prudent” course of action for Putin, one that I think is more likely than “doubling down” given the risks involved...Russia could try to simply “lock in” the territory it already secured, and “dig its heels”.... The World Bank recently predicted that the Ukrainian economy would shrink by 45%. By contrast, the highest estimate suggests the Russian economy will contract by 15%. This would not be the first time Russia... turns active conflict into a frozen one for lack of a better solution.... A frozen conflict has one key advantage for Russia: It may well help it demobilise the West. As the fighting becomes more sporadic, media attention may shift away to other crises.... Ukrainian victory would likely come from the attrition suffered by Russian forces, either due to exhausting offensives, or the need to maintain control over increasingly rebellious areas. Ukrainian forces have been quite effective at hitting Russia with limited but painful counter-offensives, taking advantage of a Russian penchant for large-scale offensives and reliance on poorly defended supply lines. The fog of war is still thick, but I would argue that [victory] is the only realistic and positive “end-game” for the West. Giving Putin an “exit ramp” out of the conflict will only work once Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is clear, and not a second before.

Super interesting thanks. I don't have any domain knowledge to add here, but this feed is worth checking. 'Dan' tries to geolocate the bang bangs and put them in context rather than just posting ooh ahh vids. Izyum is the linchpin. And clearly the UA big guns are voting that way. Something is getting, if you'll forgive the technical jargon, effing plastered.