LongLeftFlank

Scenario 2. The Tractor Works Interesting street map, very Rodger MacGowan (/genuflects), but the controlled zones may be fanciful. Don't have his source. P.S. This tweeter (who I doubt is actually fighting, but I could be wrong) also posts a number of graphic but tactically non-informative images and videos of Russians getting killed. If you get off on that, be my guest, but *please* don't repost them here; they are simply war pron, regardless of which particular humans are suffering and dying. I think we had that convo already. Cheers. 2. Wishful thinking aside, it looks like the UA has withdrawn into the industrial district again, presumably having done what they intended (disrupt a Russian buildup?). Another good map by a French military analyst (and some sobering commentary for those 'preannouncing another Russian rout). 3. Caption: Bridge across the Seversky Donets on the highway Slavyansk-Liman (UA tank is headed north, IFV headed south, per thread) Brother @Haiduk, I hope all is well. Is this (dam?) viaduct still up, or is this old footage?

Well, it certainly appears Туман has met @The_Capt's "fog eating snow". *** This one definitely falls into the category of unconfirmed, but I've seen it in a couple of places now: https://poland.postsen.com/news/11623/General-Mikhail-Zusko-arrested-in-Russia-Here’s-why-–-o2.html https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/6/1/500635/ ...The commander of 58th CAA was (allegedly) arrested, variously for (a) failure to meet his objectives (b) being of Ukrainian (Volhyn) origin (c) betraying his army's positions outside Mykilyaev to the enemy. @sburke

I don't have a translation, but meaning seems clear enuff

Z nami Bog? I have doubts about that red line.... Below is Yarova, beyond that steep massif above, where the RU flag is on the map. Took them a week+ to take it.

Girkin's latest brings nothing special, either in terms of insights or cynicism. He continues to plump for general mobilisation. ...the Russian advance is largely exhausted due to natural reasons linked to casualties taken during the offensive. ...the Ukrainian army took very serious losses mainly due to aviation and artillery strikes concentrated on rather narrow directions. Ukrainian units fighting there are practically taking very serious losses in no-contact fights, since in contact fights our forces take more losses naturally as they are attacking. A number of Ukrainian units were frankly destroyed, a part of them we can say, judging by the losses, was defeated. Yet in general, the enemy’s groups preserved. ...what is clear is that in a situation where our and enemy’s forces are battling for mere meters of the Donetsk territory, the strategic victory by our forces most likely is impossible to achieve since the enemy has access to far more human resources in reserves than our armed forces do.

Ref. that video AKD just posted. Look at the industrial zone they're forcing Ivan to attack through. IMHO, it really gets back to what our host (Steve) said back on, like, page 9 of this thread: that all Ukraine has to do to win is to keep killing Russians (without bleeding itself out first). Grim, but correct. And as we've discussed, it isn't clear the UA is doing any better yet with combined arms tank attacks than the Russians did, so letting them burn themselves out attacking is the next best thing.

That's a touch uncivil, mate; it was pretty clear what he meant. I believe our comrade's first language isn't English either.

Other guy's first language isn't English. I am pretty sure he means his company (already understrength), but I could be wrong. And that isn't beyond believable given the forest fighting. Not all killed, presumably.

I think you're very on point here, it's a little like the 'hanging on the enemy's belt' tactics of the Viet Cong. I posted a link to the savage Ortona battle of 1943. While outnumbered, the German paras were lethal in their use of channeled killing zones, mined buildings and ferocious local counterattacks. Throughout WW2 the Germans on defence were masters of 'trap, maul and slink away' tactics, conserving their infantry by stalling attacks and then letting the guns and mortars go to work on the enemy. So the Ukes are fighting like Fallschirmjager did in Italy. Small combat groups, but powerful and cunning, making cover work for them and making the enemy bleed for every house or every rock. Worthy thread here on UKR casualties, but here's the meat of it... Suitably fatalistic music: https://youtu.be/UTznkBiev1Y

Yes, but it cost the stayback UA forces very heavily as well. I believe that's the stalwart 79th AB. 4 out of 60 left, basically destroyed. Worthwhile piece on the Seviersky Donets river basin here, now 'running lke a main circuit cable through the heart of this war....' https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/01/ukraine-villagers-river-defence-russia/ I have no idea though why so many journos (or their local contacts) seem convinced the Russians are about to cross the river opposite Lyman and advance on Sloviansk. They can rain shells on it, sure. The river bank is mined, so there can be no fishing for supper - something everyone here used to enjoy. I say again, I predict mines are going to loom VERY large in the next phase of this war. Mines could become as dominant in shaping and limiting the tactical options for both sides as ATGW were in Feb - Mar.

Re SIerverdonetsk, my expectation would be a mix of ambushes and mine warfare, a la Ortona (we were speaking of Canadian battlefields), possibly followed by counterattacks to displace the Russians from key buildings. Maybe some kind of monster IED waiting for the Kadyrov Tiktok commandos.... But that's all conjecture on my part. I would bet any money though that mine warfare - not just AT mines - is already ramping up for both sides. Infantry movement (Spartak). The fight for the hotel was a few days ago. It's hard to make out btw, but the cameraman gets hit by a ricochet and binds up his wound while still giving orders to his squaddies. Yup, a bloody paratrooper all right. ...some time ago though, based on the rust. I'm seeing a lot of recycled footage on both sides btw being claimed as recent -- no leaves on the trees.

These are 3 quite intense fights (DefMon3), 2 of them primarily infantry. Frankly, if Ukraine can't yet deliver the necessary 'shove' to precipitate the Collapse© using combined arms, they may be able to accomplish it by consuming the Russian assault infantry. Ah, the historical irony of basing a strategy on running *Russia* out of men.... (yes, it's not actually Asia, but you can almost see it from here)

In Tonawanda NY, the industrious but too- perfectly-named Amigone family operated both a restaurant and a funeral home. **** Another company of DPR conscripts are petitioning Putin, saying they had been made to fight with no food, ammo or medical supplies.... and that some members of their company are not eligible for military draft because of chronic health conditions or family situation, yet they were forced into service. Now they are asking Putin to restore justice. ...Good luck with that, boychiks.

I heard from a source I deem reliable that a 'Train the Trainer' program in the fine points of modern IATGW tank killing was held in the US Northwest (I assumed Yakima) for several hundred UA NCOs. This tracks very nicely with that. What's interesting (ht @billbindc) is the date this training was conducted: March 2021. Note also though that the program was greenlit the previous fall. ...Now I understand this gets USA-political, and I can't document it, but it seems that by 2019, POTUS would only be briefed (i.e. given an option to intervene) on certain defence and mil assistance decisions. Everything else was kept vague and merely presented for signature. And in practice, the former were solely matters where (a) US personnel might come home in body bags on camera, or (b) Israel had an interest. Pence and Mnuchin were the filters. Beyond that, the policy establishment was left mainly to its own devices.

From Dmitri Galeev discusses the idiosyncracies of the Russian conscription system:

[LLF preens feathers modestly] Yep, ammo supply (and casualty avoidance) is the key factor there, by design. What should really happen is that the insurgents fade away the moment their main force starts getting Owned, but the TacAI just ain't that smart. I didn't want to induce a Surrender because it could be triggered without rescuing the trapped squads and that, not killing bad guys, was the point. But thanks for the kind words mate.

Does it matter at this point? Do you want them to give up and go home or don't you? Your fever dream -- which I have a feeling long predates 2014 -- of the world somehow proscribing Russians from the human race as the Romans did the Sarmatii (unsuccessfully) isn't ever going to be a thing. So you're going to need to find a way to live with Them afterwards.

Stand up now, Kuban and Novgorod and Belgorod and Voronezh-Volga Republics! And in time there could yet be a place for a prosperous Muscovy Republic as well! Russian lurkers, could this post-imperial condition honestly be any worse than the place your Tsar has put you in right now? Consider that Thais and Vietnamese today live better than you do now, under Western capitalist 'exploitation'. Without a fraction of your mineral wealth and human capital (although that is growing, fast!) ...Yet you have parliamentarians on talk shows frothing about nuclear war! Do you think the Chinese will back you in that? What nonsense! Xi and Modi will make common cause with the West long enough to put you down like mad dogs. End this, now. It's horrible, it serves no purpose.

Lyman sector, river NE of Sloviansk: 1. I like OsA's maps except for the Red Arrows of Dooom, but as Steve noted he tends to overcred RU side sources. So I personally call BS on this. The Russians have no capability at all to force the river in the Lyman area. If they try, they will simply get more elite troops killed to no purpose. 2. I believe I mentioned Monte Cassino before. The Russians have only just reached the far side of that hill. They can and will level this beautiful monastery to the ground (slow clap for Third Rome) but that won't take the ground, so long as it is defended by men who know it. Yet again, the Ukrainians are choosing the battlegrounds. All Ivan can do is bleed. A little clearer view here It's taken them all of May to clear those wooded zones and Lyman town. And they've mainly pulled the forces that got them there.

Tiktok war whores and pronstars can all f**k off as far as I'm concerned. I don't care what side he's on. And I wouldn't click a YouTube link that looks like that if you told me it was the second coming of Moses. IMHO....

LOL. @BlackMoria is also the playtester who demolished -- no really, chewed and effing spit out! -- my CMSF1 Ramadi JOKER 3 urban hellscape (back a decade ago), taking only a single casualty! IIRC, he end ran the QRF column around the (obvious) insurgent kill zone, linked up the forces (replenishing ammo, which is key) and then brutally straight punched into the heart of the ghetto to relieve the cut off Marines. Freeking legend! (I had to make quite some design tweaks to the scenario after that, I can tell you) Canucks by and large are a peaceable people, but we do have hidden talents for war when put to it. My uncles in the South Scotias and Seaforths told quite some stories #TommySS

Agreed, although there is one horrible full colour sequence I won't link from Saipan 1944 ("Hell in the Pacific" series), where a Japanese hetai emerges on fire from his bunker and runs around for a bit before lying down in a ditch to expire. The poor guy's body language expresses less agony than embarassment, as if he had been caught outside naked. And then there's this non-explicit but nonetheless poignant sequence of a US tanker on Okinawa, a young skinny kid, likely sole survivor of his crew. His body language alone tells the tale. ....These are the kinds of stories a good friend of mine at USVA hears on a daily basis from veterans ever since they began offering extra PTSD benefits. The stories invariably begin, "I always thought I'd take this story with me to the grave with me, because who the hell would want to hear it, except my wife who wonders why I wake up screaming at night." We are all human.

I've posted a few of these too, so not judging at all, but the intimate horror of watching human beings die on camera in these videos is something I hope I never become indifferent to, still less regard as entertainment. And I say that as a hunter. 2. Speaking of horror.... The positive news is that, having blown up this plant, the Russians will be unable to use it to manufacture munitions (explosives being kissing cousins to bulk chemicals of course) in the event this war goes 'long'. (note also that this footage may be quite dated, based on the absence of foliage, as pointed out by other Tweeters. But the point remans) 3. 10 days of fighting and the Russians have only just cleared Yarova, maybe. It's in the flatlands. The UA can fight a vicious Monte Cassino defence (low tech, grenade throwers and 81mm mortars) in the rocky wooded massif above Sviatohirsk for weeks if it so chooses before withdrawing across the river. A whole regiment of VDV could bleed out taking this area from a reinforced company of bloody minded Ukrainians. It isn't mech friendly and Katyushas won't pave the way; if you haven't visited Cassino (well worth it!) think Ardennes. Or the Gettysburg 'Devil's Den'

If that happens to be a literal quote, it is epic trolling of Putin by die Reichskänzler!

Yes, that statement is getting a *lot* of press scrutiny right now. Is it KIA, WIA, what? As you know of course, the true question is the *sustainability* of those losses for each side over the next 30 - 60 days. ...Or into the fall/winter? if our longed for Collapse somehow fails to arrive. Which leads directly to the "Collapse" question regarding sustainment of the causative agents. a. The Russian killers are almost entirely artillery and maybe some air strikes. The UA forces tend to be in cover by the look of it; buildings, entrenchments except on the occasions when they get whacked on the move by drones. Which makes them harder targets to hurt, but also more prone to get 'hosed' down by HE once spotted.... b. The Ukrainian killers seem a little more diversified -- ATGWs, sniping, mines -- but still preponderantly artillery. Being on the attack, Russians seem to be caught on the move or in laager more often, but they may also be getting better at avoiding presenting targets. But doctrinally, even their paratroopers remain quite tied to their vehicles. So, using JasonC's old analogy of mortar, gun (or rocket) tubes being fire hoses and the actual limiter being the number of shells/rockets you can truck in to them, how sustainable are these killers? >> Can Side A kill/disrupt enough of Side B's tubes to reduce the volume of incoming? >> Can Side X (and its allies) keep the materiel flowing in? does quality (e.g. accuracy) degrade with time? how much does it matter if the Russians run out of fancy smart stuff and have to revert to 1944 tech? What about fuel? Fuel trucks? Spares? >> Do the belligerents start seriously neutralising (jamming? skeet shooting? drone v drone?) each others' drones in a serious way? raising the number of shells needed per kill back to 20th century levels? >> If the fronts go static, do we see an exponential increase in mine warfare? making attack more costly than ever. (HINT: HELL YES!) The West largely faced crude but effective homemade IEDs in the Stanbox. The Russians can doubtless field vastly more fiendish and lethal devices, even with an impaired industrial base. How many? Can they source key components in volume from unscrupulous suppliers overseas? blah blah blah.... Grim "Arithmetic on the Frontier", as it were, one opinion, framework or model as is good, or irrelevant (e.g. the confounding variable of Will) as another, really.