LongLeftFlank

Very useful, CalWaff, cheers! I aggregated the key data below to try to put that '900 tubes' chestnut in context. Corrections of a material nature are of course welcome, as are credible sources! I will be keeping my eyes out. 1. TUBES, per Military Balance (2021), less confirmed RU losses, per Oryx (SP+towed). There are of course other losses on both sides, but let's not go down the rabbit hole on losses (he said/she said BS). This is very macro, sizing of the problem. -> 120/122mm: U 421, R 245 - (34+19) -> 152mm: U 742, R 2028 - (93 + 28) -> 203mm: U 48, R 160 - (0?) -> MLRS/Grad: U 1680, R 3547 - (79) Western aid: -> 155mm USM777s: U 108 -> 155mm, other: U 40-50(?) -> Other 'large' calibres: 50 2. AMMO STOCKS Ukraine -> Bloc calibres at start: 300,000 -> Bloc calibres received: 225,000 -> NATO 155mm: 300,000 -> Rockets: tbd Russia -> 122mm: tbd -> 152mm: tbd -> 203mm: tbd -> Rockets: tbd **** Anecdata on stocks, consumption rates, and losses: https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/06/09/initial-request-of-the-armed-forces-regarding-155-mm-artillery-units-has-been-90-fulfilled-by-the-ministry-of-defence-–-oleksii-reznikov/ but... Loss rates, taking due note of @c3k's separate estimate of 625 Russian launchers lost since the start:

As noted, Pfarrer tends to be *very* rah rah , but map gives bridge locations.

That's a keeper! As to Jomini, when he spoke of a pivot point I think he was referring to the entire salient (UA controlled Donbas) behind Sivierdonetsk, not just the city, clear back to Siversk, at least. Or that's how I read him, anyway. Also, this map I found yesterday suggests that the main concentration of Russian guns is north of Sivierdonetsk. So perhaps a little wider angle and therefore slightly more area to deploy in. Doesn't change your points much tho, just for info

Not quite....

And your preference is well noted as well. But at this point the facts-free opinionating is starting to drown out the substance.

Good responses, @Grigb, @Calamine Waffles and others. Being as this is a tactical wargaming site, I'd much rather float and debate (and get schooled in!) this kind of stuff than pages and pages of wailing and gnashing of teeth about ze Germans (or ze Turks). Re the tube and fire volume exaggerations and so on, that could well all be true to push Western aid panic buttons. But the reality is that UA defenders in static positions are getting the crap pounded out of them by Russian arty right now. I believe them about the casualty counts. So top priority, while the UA is building up for whatever big push they have in mind, ought to be to cull that incoming back, a lot, whether using Wunderwaffen or good old CBA, or sabotage of LOCs, or a combo of means. Just digging in and taking it a la Verdun, while feeding still more kids into the meat grinder should not be the default choice. ....So if Gray Eagles (Predators) are full sized US stealth drones, and they DO have the range and loiter time and 360kg payload (sez Wiki), how's about kitting them out with Switchblades? Figure out areas where Ivan is shooting and scooting, or sending convoys, send out your 'Night Witch' mother ships and dump clusters of smaller drones into the area to hover and hunt?

Jomini gives the big picture.... (but you'll need to read the fine print in that big red box. Grab a coffee, or another drink, depending on your point on the globe) Brother Jomini definitely ain't in the Collapse school. Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate. Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk. ....Now, about that bit where the RAF completes the capture of Sieverdonetsk in the next 24 - 72 hours..... In spite of his SOF pedigree, Chuck Pf is a lot on the rah rah side, so bread and salt here, but nice map. He also approvingly reposted this clip from the street fighting. **** EDIT: So I would humbly pronounce the entire Jomini thread essential reading for anyone following this board. Like his namesake, he tends to be on the conservative side, but he is making sense here in light of the current facts on the ground. BUT, I will ask a fairly obvious question: 1. If the Russian effort rides pretty much entirely on heavy artillery right now, to the tune of about 900 tubes or launchers in the key sector; and 2. If drones are a real pain in the arse to shoot down right now, and can roam with near impunity, day and night, limited only by their time aloft..... Where is that swarm of several thousand drones of all shapes and sizes, kamikaze and other, that will sniff out and neutralise these tubes, as well as their LOCs? Or does the West need China in order to manufacture anything in bulk now? .... And along those same lines, what's happened to the Bayraktars? They haven't all been shot down, that's definitely not the case. And aren't there some Gray Eagles quietly floating around? Hmm.... I mentioned earlier General Giap snookering the French master artillerists (and they were really good!) at Dien Bien Phu by bunkering in his guns on forward slopes, refusing to play the traditional game. By the same token, conventional tube on tube counterbattery work remains important, but it may not be the only game in town any more. So could Sieverdonetsk be a giant trap, like DBP, luring all the first line RA artillery into massing so it can be whacked by some kind of massively scaled up Aerorozvidka (with a secure line to Nellis AFB)? Because that would be simply awesome! As our @The_Capt hath taught us, the offence / defence equation is seriously out of balance right now -- a convergence of disruptive innovations, in Clayton Christiansen's sense -- and more Big Surprises are likely in store before this ball stops ricocheting around. But the waaaaiting is the hardest part.

So for a force that is outnumbered 7:1 in tubes and running dry on Bloc 152mm, the Ukes are putting quite a hurt on the Russian LOCs around Izyum. And Rubizhne. Keep an eye out for a matching map showing the key road and rail routes. Either that or their Anarcho-Syndicalist Platoons are wreaking havoc with matches behind enemy lines....

Russian side sources speculate that this is a chemical works.

Grauniad, citing the same source.

Quite correct in theory, but it didn't work out that way at all for them in the textbook tank country southwest of Izyum. Artillery and the usual ATGMs.

1. Interesting graphic, for any comment the artillery mavens may have beyond, well, sure, this is Basic Artillery 101.... I have very little knowledge of gunnery myself, but I do recall from Dien Bien Phu readings (and a battlefield visit) that French artillery commander Col. Piroth was entirely confident that his 155mm battery could erase any lighter Viet Minh guns emplaced on backslopes using this technique. And he also kept his own guns in open pits to enable a 360 field of fire. What he wasn't counting on, of course, was the VM emplacing many guns on the forward slopes, in caves.... 2. Also in the artillery department, when the Russians are also having to conceal their supply dumps in civilian facilities (and they've finally figured out that they ought to), you know the UA is doing its work.... Quite an intense bombardment too, correcting fire.

@Kinophile also gave us a preview in April of what RA 36th CAA is looking at now that the road to Sloviansk is, umm, open.... [DefMon3] 36th Combined Arms Army (RU) in the Izium area are supposed to have got 1000+ troops and 100 equipment in reinforcement. Unknown types. [some red zones are debatable] Notice they have the Sviaty Hory massif (the river bend) on their left, untaken, and ahead some more woodlands, how nice. Their right flank is paralleled by that great big canal there, which prevents any kind of right flank maneuver. So there's really only one road left for them, hey diddle diddle.... **** Bonus tweet, from Khodorkovsky. Yup, that arschloch. I guess he's on our side now, but still scum. Pony up for some MANPADS, scumbag. These kids got your Land of Hope and Glory right here, Putin....

At this point, I want to ask for a moment of silence (looking at you, Eurosquabblers!) for the heroic defenders of Dovehnke. And yet another kudos to our own @Combatintman who flagged this innocuous looking (to we lesser mortals) bit of ground as a key barrier to the RA advance from their hard won Izyum bridgehead to Sloviansk. ....On that same note, I'd like to revisit another astute post of CIMan in mid April, where he ID'ed various attack axes for the Russian 'pincer, and then predicted the Russians would end up getting forced onto the hardest, bloodiest paths. Nailed it, mate. 1. AA1 promptly bogged down in the open country, and that sector now seems increasingly dominated by UA artillery. No blitzkrieg for you, Popov! 2. AA3 worked ok at first, up until it hit Lyman and then it took 3-4 further weeks of costly fighting to clear that town and the forests behind it, and secure the S-D River line. 3. AA2 hit a dead stop at Dovhenke, as noted and has had to take the hard way around. 4. AA4? has basically stopped on the start line at Sieverodonetsk. Ivan is beating his head against a stone wall and getting counterpunched.

As noted, that northern attack towards Sloviansk seems to have some weight behind it. And it looks like they've finally taken Dovhenke for good, after flanking it through 'Sherwood Forest'. But the terrain ahead canalises the attacker very badly indeed.

I will take the ring to Mordor!

Yup, after 1.5 months of gnawing at the outer crust and floundering in the fields south of Izium, it appears the RA 'north pincer' is at last reaching the nortern approaches to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk logistical hub. They are putting some weight into it, although Girkin made no mention. If those cities fall, Donbas definitely becomes untenable. But there's still a long way for them to go.

Like those famous Russian dogs at Rostov with mines strapped to them. ...Who allegedly failed to run under the German panzers as they had been trained (with food) because the Maybachs ran on gasoline, while the Soviet tanks were diesels. (hey, I may as well go for the misinfo trifecta while I'm on a roll)

Yeah, while I'm closer to Steve in terms of seeing NATO as a generally benevolent alliance, this kind of thing from the NYT Syria piece he linked earlier makes it all too easy to get folks, especially formerly colonised nationals, believing that Uncle Sam and the West project power globally largely for cynical and materialistic self-serving reasons..... Russia and the United States were backing separate offensives against the Islamic State in Syria’s oil-rich Deir al-Zour Province, which borders Iraq.... A team of about 30 Delta Force soldiers and Rangers from the Joint Special Operations Command were working alongside Kurdish and Arab forces at a small dusty outpost next to a Conoco gas plant, near the city of Deir al-Zour. [/Facepalm]

ha, it's LLFs day for Alternative Facts then lol! I hope you're right, in this case!

Good info, thanks. This is getting in @The_Capt's wheelhouse, but seems to me there's a serious mismatch at tactical level here today. In the Sixties, you had Ryan Firebees and by the 70s variants on ALCMs, then stealth tech and Reapers, Predators, etc. for the GWOT. All very strategic level assets, crazy expensive and accordingly rare. But you're saying here that a 250 USD Chinese drone that could be issued to and used by any rando rifle squad still needs a 3 million(?) missile or AAA system deployed to the front by a specialised formation to neutralise it! Wow. I mean, not saying you're wrong, but wow.

I'd actually rather all the ace BS detectors on here opined on this query from yesterday, which is somewhat more important than barroom tales from 35 years ago. ...Why aren't UA (or Russian) squads killing more drones, at least the little quads as opposed to the big higher flying UAVs? Or maybe they are? Or maybe there's fewer of them than it looks like? TBH, I know little to nothing about the drone war but it seems like getting these things out of the skies should be pretty high on the list for both sides. Like why the Sam Hill would this kind of thing ever happen? You're on patrol and hear something buzzing above you, you kill it (shotgun? or what?), or else assume the enemy knows exactly where you are.... Anyone?

Speaking of 'is it disinformation or not?', there are still reports of the Russians crossing the Seviersky Donets between Lyman and Svyathohirsk.

wow, you're good! I heard the story in the late 80s, so it fits that timeline, but the old guy didn't seem like the type who would Kaiser Soce stuff off network TV. He had absolutely lived the reality (VN and Laos), that I do know. Anyway, sorry about the sidebar.

I thought you guys might miss Kettler (I hope he gets let back out of the doghouse eventually). No, I wouldn't have posted it if I hadn't heard it from a guy who was otherwise credible, but, I wasn't there. So as I say, FWIW.