LongLeftFlank

As @sburke kindly observed, my thread participation has become scant in the past month due to work (sadly, I'm not an oil trader, although I do ok). Also, I note our esteemed new grognards in residence, @Grigb , @Beleg85 , @Hubaand others are finding better sources now than I could. Many thanks, guys! Ref. @chrisl 's post, it seems to me the UA reactions to Russia's blunt force saturation bombardments are the time tested ones: 1. where they have time, or the use of existing tunnel works, dig deep, with solid overhead cover and camou. That's the 'WW1 solution', used in nearly all positional warfare ever since explosive shells became available to armies in volume. Leave the dugouts only when the enemy is danger close. 2. otherwise, 'deepen' their fronts -- up to 10kms now? -- (a) avoiding putting too many defenders in one targetable spot, (b) maxing use of dummies and camou, (c) using schweige (silent) ambush positions, (d) mines in huge volumes, and (e) nimble shoot-and-scoot fire teams to retard Russian advances into this thinly manned zone prior to calling in their own guns. I believe the Russians are adopting similar (though not identical) dispersed tactics, which is why the UA in turn is having trouble attacking in mass/with mech (except in the wooded areas near Izyum or the densely settled areas around Kharkiv, where they can infiltrate at scale). => This urgent need to spread out seems to me to explain many of the UA withdrawals we've seen (and now, some of the Russian moves); being 'cauldroned' isn't just being cut off, it's about being forced to be too dense on the ground. Furthermore, forcing the attacker to make himself 'dense' in canalised terrain, bring up his direct fire vehicles, etc. and then blasting the hell out of him, can be well worth giving up some ground (temporarily or permanently). However, I also believe both sides are becoming skilled at leaving behind mines and sensors to make reoccupying vacated ground costly. .... (which is why I believe the next phase of this war -- retaking the lost lands -- is going to be less about drones and more about mines, which the Russians can still make in quantity) Villages or hedgehog strongpoints are less valuable tacticallly than previously, as the Russians just zero and level every structure. Conversely, woodlands or large urban or mining/industrial zones that mask movement but can't be leveled remain valuable, and very tough nuts to crack. Notice, these dynamics also make river crossing bridgeheads far more vulnerable for both sides (on top of the crossing risk itself), as there's less space in the kessel to spread out and avoid counterfires (e.g. Inhulets crossing). As most here know well, the Wehrmacht tried out a lot of the above 'zone' defence tactics in later WW2, although their artillery tended not to be equal to the task of area denial when the Red Army was determined to break in en masse. ....Anyway, that's the basics of it, I'm sure more knowledgeable folks here can elaborate and correct. P.S. Some of the same dynamics above are readily visible in my (unfinished) CMBN Le Carillon sequence, where successive US regiments kept 'clearing' the Germans out of Le Meauffe village, only to (re)discover it was a trap, a lethal mortar magnet. They'd withdraw leaving just an OP, and the German snipers and sappers would come in again, infiltrating from the bocage: lather-rinse-repeat for a full month. A lot of the Italian campaign was fought much the same way.

I would actually wear this one, although it should read: the 'birds' are in the pay of the bourgeoisie Honorable mention (as it implies you're armed as well as crazy, as opposed to hipster ironic)

1. Annual wind rose for Zaporizhzhia ....you’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk? 2. Nice power plant you've got there, Kursk. Be a shame if sumfink happened to it.... 3. Of course, this sort of thing moves fairly quickly into WMD space. The list of human winners from nuclear war at any scale is fairly close to zero, and definitely does not include the leadership of China.

Linking to this interesting thread from late last year....

Bump, in light of discussion over in Ukraine gigathread. Also, some details on the planned PLA 'exercises' https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis/

Remind us please, what century do you live in?

Get up. Do your fkg job.

And at the risk of awakening the slumbering Old Ones from their Sunken non-Euclidean Thread Beneath The Waves....

Nasty bit of sophistry there.

Good elenchos these last few pages on the nature of demos vs. oligarchs vs. tyrants. I would foray into my Thucydides or Xenophon for some astringent comments from the Peloponnesian Wars had I more time.

Yes, the stupidest thing is that with the global commodities price windfall of 2006-2009, Russia was well positioned to diversify itself into a software and technology services hub, with millions of numerate people and solidifying ties to the EU. On that path, it might have moved to middle income status in the 2010s; the Germans and French would have happily played along. Instead, the mafiyas and siloviki looted the resource sector and legacy manufacturing and then Putin tried to put the Soviet Humpty Dumpty back together again by force, with the horrid results we see.

False analogy. DMS is a longtime member of this forum, respected for his contributions to our gaming community. I don't personally find his whataboutism useful in this instance, as there is no moral equivalency to the war in the disputed Donetsk territory at all -- I think @The_Capt has the right of it here, this is just a murderous and stupid tantrum -- but I still want to hear his POV, and the rebuttals.

Wow, anyone with the tiniest familiarity with Chinese knows this statement is utterly meaningless as a signal to intent.

Thanks. I have been gagging on his 'Russians = mongoloid orcs who take murder and rapine in with their mothers milk' line for the entire thread. ...That said, there's definitely something very disturbing about Russian 'high culture'. This Galeev thread gets into part of it. Curious what your take might be, at your convenience.... ...FWIW, I actually take away something a little hopeful, which is that there's a grumpy strain of individualism in Russians that could shrug off all the worn out Czar worship / Third Rome suprisingly quickly if given a chance. More here... Their crabs-in-the-bucket mentality (envy), sadly, might take them a while longer to get free of. But prosperity too, can create more generous hearts in time. Nobody is born that way. **** P.S. Speaking of Galeev, he's been prodding at German double-dealing for some time now.... And I can neither confirm nor deny that this *exactly* describes the dynamic in developing energy and infra projects in most emerging market countries lol.

1000 pages, woot! Not quite the conflagration we'd been banking on....

Nein nein nein!

Thank you. 1. As someone who has spent most of his adult life working in Asian emerging markets, watching some flourish and others flail, I would personally invest capital east of the Oder and north of the Danube. 2. As you note, 'Old Europe's' private sector is very much investing that way too, even more urgently today as it seeks alternative 'workshops' to an increasingly sharp dealing and high handed China. 3. All the human capital, knowhow, work ethic and other resources are in place to rapidly stand up Europe's new tech manufacturing hub. Over the next 25 years -- not overnight! as some here seem to have strangely misread my post -- that will entail a rebalancing of wealth and power eastward. However, it will likely take 2 generations before Ukrainians live as well on average as Frenchmen. Nonetheless, standards of living will improve noticeably. 4. Providing skilled labour to Greater Europe at competitive but rising cost for a time (a la ASEAN) is one thing. But if Bruxelles Eurocrats also demand they throw open their borders to (and compete with) millions of migrants from the Global South flocking into their cities, that will most definitely *not* be on. A middle class society and open borders simply aren't reconcilable, sorry. If there is going to be a substratum of low cost migrant workers, let them come in from Russia over time and take the new ethic home with them.

Well done sir! I would do much the same in your place. But let's dwell for a moment on 'your place.' As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East. Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure. The one positive thing Communism left behind in Eastern Europe is excellent secondary polytechnic education, a byproduct of forced industrialisation. For all the old EU sneering about 'Polish plumbers', it's a backhand compliment to unfussy people who bring tangible, practical problem solving skills. Ukrainians seem cut from much the same cloth: tough, cheerful and adaptive! Not so different from how Americans used to think of themselves (and some still are). ... All this region needs to thrive is to get the boot of outside imperialist overlords off its neck, whether it's Austrians, Germans, Muscovites, post-Soviet mafiyas, or anyone else. In fact, break the legs inside those boots as needed to make that point! Ukrainians (and Poles) should keep rifles in their homes for a generation, with localities maintaining armouries of AT weapons. Well ordered militias, bedrock of diversified, no-nonsense republics. ...And we shall see what kind of economic order can grow from that base. I personally believe great things are possible.

Having both Leatherneck and Bootneck friends, let me assure you it is entirely possible to be all of the above lol. I have no reason to believe he lied....

Some history from (Kazani) Galeev, though he hasn't (yet) explicitly waded into the present day implications.

Support for the 'Franco thesis' of Lukashenko behaviour? (Or else a fake) Open appeal of servicemen of the 5th special brigade of special purpose Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus Dear Alexander Grigorievich! The personnel of the 5th special constitutional order. Without exception, all military personnel of the Brigade are ready to defend the borders of our Motherland to the last drop of blood, regardless of the exigencies and hardships of military service. Currently, officers of the 5th special brigade of special purpose of the Armed Forces are observing the grossest violation by the highest political leadership of the Russian Federation of Article 1 of the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, according to which “the Republic of Belarus has supremacy and complete power on its territory, and independently implements domestic and foreign policy.” The occupation by the Russian Federation of the internationally recognized territories of the friendly state of Ukraine, an attempt by the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin to drag the Republic of Belarus into an unprovoked war against a sovereign state, is nothing short of the destruction of the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus. As a result of the aggression, the Russian Federation has already foundered itself in the stringencies of international economic foreign policy, which is steadily destroying the country's economy. The Republic of Belarus is a democratic social state. Article 2 of the Constitution defines a person, his or her rights and freedoms, and guarantees of these, as the highest value and goal of society and the state. Supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin in his aggression against Ukraine will entail huge human losses among the military and civilian population. Entering the war against Ukraine and the countries of Europe and America that are supporting its sovereignty and territorial integrity within internationally-recognized borders, will expunge the Republic of Belarus from the community of civilized powers, making our nation a pariah state for many years to come. Entering the war on the side of Russia for the Republic of Belarus will be veritable suicide. The political isolation and international sanctions that such aggression against Ukraine will inevitably entail, will be disastrous for our country which, unlike the Russian Federation, does not have a margin of safety in the form of a reserve of natural resources. Based on the foregoing, the personnel of the 5–11th special brigade of the special purpose of the Armed Forces appeals to you, dear Alexander Grigoryevich, with an appeal not to sacrifice the people of Belarus, the future of our children, and the sovereignty of the state you head, for the sake of the imperial ambitions of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, which is alien to all citizens of Belarus without exception. Having chosen the profession of military men, we are all ready to give our lives defending our Motherland from aggression. At the same time, having entered into a war of conquest against a state friendly to us, in our own eyes and in the eyes of our children, we will lose the right to be called Officers, turning into occupiers and war criminals. We have the honour to be!…

Short piece by Phillips O'Brien https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/rethinking-russia-ukraine-international-political-power-military-strength/661452 Russian strength has shown itself to be so overrated that it gives us an opportunity to rethink what makes a power “great” .... A military is only as strong as the society, economy, and political structure that assembled it. In this case, Russia was nowhere near a great power.... Its economy is about the tenth largest in the world, comparable to Brazil’s, but even that masks how remarkably unproductive it is, basing most of its wealth on extracting and selling natural resources, rather than on producing anything advanced. When it comes to technology and innovation, Russia would hardly rank in the top 50 most important countries in the world.

...Take Macron off call waiting.

Elegant map of Donbas front by HeliosRunner.

1. So does this mean Ivan is giving mech attacks another try? (ref. that long thread I translated above which asserts they've basically given up on that for some time). 2. More icons on a map 3. A new form of interdiction? 4. /mic drop