LongLeftFlank

While we're resurrecting old games.... Kekekekekekekekekekekeke!!!!!

For great justice!

You know our standing orders, Kaminski: Out of commission, become a pillbox. Out of ammo, become a bunker. Out of time, become heroes.

In Putin Russia, Score settle YOU! Galeev has been a little scattershot lately, but he does make a relevant point here: ... TL:DR All cards can go wild in extremis. Especially in Russia, where an economy/polity 'demodernised' itself twice within the last 100+ years. Even shorter: for Kremlinologists, GIGO *** P.S. Remember the Skripals and any number of other minor players for whom the 'punishment' did not seem to fit the crime, at least by any rationale rational people might use.... “‘Who ever heard of Moscow Rules in the middle of bloody Hampstead anyway?’ Strickland asked, waving out the match. ‘Bloody Hampstead is right,’ Smiley said quietly.”

... or WELCOME TO ALBANIA: YOUR CAR IS HERE ALREADY

.... or are now reduced to feeding on a warm patch of water behind the shark.

Collapse Watch, episode ____ 1. https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738 With the exodus of some 1,000 global companies, Russia has lost companies that represent some 40% of gross domestic product, according to the study.... In the longer run, Russia's economy will become more primitive as it partially decouples from international trade, it said. To avoid social tensions, the government will intervene to support Russian businesses, leading to more protectionism and a larger state footprint in the economy. 2. More data (June): https://www.csis.org/analysis/strangling-bear-sanctions-russia-after-four-months The existing sanctions, especially export controls, may contribute to favorable military outcome for Ukraine by weakening Russia’s ability to resupply its forces. But ultimately, this is a war, and the road to a settlement probably goes through the battlefield. 3. Counterpoint? Not really, just more bluster: https://fortune.com/2022/07/30/russia-is-skirting-sanctions-quite-successfully-meet-the-architect-of-putins-economic-counterattack/ As some powerful Kremlin players have pushed for reasserting state control over the economy, Oreshkin has fought back, so far successfully. “Russia is not going to abandon the market economy,” Oreshkin said in reply to questions from Bloomberg. “On the contrary, it’s moving in the opposite direction. Private initiative is now especially encouraged. This is constantly noted by the president in his speeches.” Blyat blyat blyat.... 4. Moscow does not believe in stats [interesting piece by a Navalny aligned ex minister]... https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/ Russia has greatly reduced the transparency of its economy, stopping to publish some vital statistics and corporate data.... data on budget spending became classified. This made it significantly harder to assess the effects of sanctions.... We also don’t know the real ruble exchange rate – which is vital for ...an economy heavily dependent on international trade, including mass imports of goods and critical intermediary components for manufacturing. ...food prices growth is higher than the overall consumer inflation, and undercounting its share reduces the overall inflation estimates. Russian enterprises are accustomed to using various tricky forms of work suspension without laying off workers (reduced working hours, temporary downtime, etc.), which distorts the overall picture of unemployment Russia will receive much less [energy] profits from the Asian market. For instance, in April-June, the average price of Russian Urals oil blend was about $36 per barrel below Brent average – whereas transporting the oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports is significantly more costly. The infrastructure aimed at exporting natural gas from Western Siberia, the main gas producing region in Russia, to Asia is simply nonexistent, and will take hundreds of billions of dollars (and years) to build. 5. For those interested, by the same author, skepticism on a Russia-China entente (Nov 2021): https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/ambitions-dashed-why-sino-russian-economic-cooperation-is-not-working/?amp=1 **** All that said, I remain concerned that Xi's China is / will take targeted measures that prolong the war (e.g. quietly sending certain arms, kit or other manufactures Russia can't make for itself), simply because he sees keeping Russia in the fight as a way to bloody the US nose without a direct confrontation. If American resolve weakens after the midterms, that will seriously damage US standing in the world, to China's benefit. I am not saying that will happen -- in fact I doubt it -- or that Chinese aid *can* in fact materially prop up Putin. But it's what Xi thinks that matters, and a price will be paid in Ukrainian lives.

Interesting 30 minute grunt level memoir from a volunteer squaddie who fought in Irpin and Bucha. He went home in March, but he did his bit.

... I wonder how soft and absorbent that paper is? Meanwhile in 'Mockba'....

Curious how that map cuts off at Kharkiv / Kursk. The Argus eye would also seem to cover most of the territory of Belarus.....

CMBN Pacific: Makin Atoll I am not in a position to do anything CM related, beyond the occasional drive by on the Ukraine thread. But good luck to anyone wanting to pursue a PT project. I personally find PTO can be satisfyingly gamed in CM.

Oh that's right, how silly of me. Biden is King Solomon and Thufir Hawat all rolled into one, and his Cabinet sits at his feet, dutifully scribing his analysis and making his sacred Word flesh. What's your take on it, since you clearly know him intimately, or have access to the Oval Office? In more than one word, since Nonsense is not in fact self evident.

None of the above assessments of US decisionmaking are contradictory IMHO. It is pretty obvious to me that Mr. Biden (like Reagan as of 1984 or so) suffers senile dementia, and it is progressing, with good days and bad days, as we see pretty much every second time Joe speaks off the cuff. Nor was he an especially brilliant man when he was in his prime; let's not fool ourselves about this. Although there are many different kinds of 'smart' in this world.... But like most folks in such cases, Biden falls back on the effective habits of a lifetime (40 years in public service), plus the advice of trusted persons like his wife and longtime staff. I won't claim he's a rubber stamp, but he knows how to 'listen' for the consensus and declare the decision, without necessarily grasping details, or contributing much in the way of synthesis or critique. Hence the comfortable armchairs around the fireplace for him and Kamala, not a conference table or the War Room..... Anywah, JRB makes a perfectly adequate figurehead for the permanent policy establishment (the MIC, the Swamp, whatever you are inclined to call it). This is the (very much bipartisan) group whose performance is being praised here. And in time of war, that's how it ought to be. ....Would I personally wish to be governed permanently by such an unelected permanent establishment? No! A mandarinate has its own flaws, not least that it governs for its own convenience, not that of the people, even when not overtly venal. However, in time of war, such a structure makes eminent sense, and we're all seeing it at work. One expat Canuck's opinion....

No time to read this right now, but looks interesting.....

1. Haven't checked in on OBrien in a bit, here's his latest thoughts on the war. Shouldn't shock anyone on this thread: like the strategists on here, he isn't overly worried about Ukraine's 'inability' to concentrate heavy forces. Overall this way of fighting is generally why I'm positive about Ukr prospects. The two sides are intellectually fighting very differently. The Russians are plodding, battle-centric, have difficulties adjusting and cant operate their complex systems well (see air and sea power) 2. Interesting thread here, from March, though covers a far wider scope than this war.... There were no decisive battles in WW2.... Wow, them's fighting words for CM grogs lol.

Hmm, other than the slow motion self-inflicted dismantling on what was once its own territory, of what was once a key Eurasian empire and global superpower holding (many of) the keys to Doomsday, sure, no doubt future historians will see no difference whatsoever.... @danfrodoaww

Brennschluß! (I swore an solemn oath long ago to work that word into casual conversation whenever I possibly can. Yeah, life of the party, I know) ....He takes some time lightening a cigarette. He won't hear the thing come in. It travels faster than the speed of sound. The first news you get of it is the blast. Then, if you're still around, you hear the sound of it coming in. What if it should hit exactly-ahh, no-for a split second you'd have to feel the very point, with the terrible mass above, strike the top of the skull... (Apols. to Sir Elton, I carry a lifelong torch for Kate, in spite of the... questionable choice of a reggae beat for this cover) OK, with that, I return you to your regularly scheduled thread.

A legend in his own mind....

Umm, I seem to recall them having a slightly worse day on 22 June 1941.... **** Meanwhile, you may find youself in a different part of the world.... I do loves me some good CT snark lol.

ACHTUNG/STÖJ! I don't want to be peddling misinformation on here, still less promoting a dolchstosslegende. It seems this guy is a legit UA general with a long record, but [fuzzy] got dismissed [for some kind of mouthing off?], ran against Zelenskyy in 2019 and then endorsed Poroshenko. So pass a lot of extra salt with that black bread.... And holy cats, he looks and sounds just like a figure out of the 19th century. I hear sinister hoofbeats just looking at him. Postwar Ukrainian politics is gonna be, umm colourful. Full (unfragmented) transcript from Dmitri: https://wartranslated.com/big-interview-with-ukrainian-general-serhii-kryvonos-updating/ Let's get this straight: the country's military-political leadership.... Did they oversleep, or did they pretend to oversleep the offensive? ....In January, some Americans of the extremely high level came, and right on the maps, they were telling us what would happen and how. But the political leadership said it was all lies, nonsense, and provocations. Why? Well, because the pro-Russian agents are probably in the president's office. There's no other way to justify this. To say that they didn't know. That's an outright lie. ...And generals of the Russian General Staff called their classmates, friends, and brothers who were serving here and warned that in 24 hours, Russia would attack. And the fact that the attack will come from the side of Belarus is one hundred percent. A year before the start of the war, I warned the country's leadership, and, in principle, I was fired for that. They did not want to hear what they did not want to hear.... And the Ukrainians, regardless of the country’s political leadership position, were instantly self-organized, having already had enough experience. And they started to burn Russian tanks wherever they could. Only afterward was it taken under the control of the military leadership and became more or less normally managed.... [25 Feb] I accidentally stopped at Zhylyansk airfield; we had to get ammunition there to go to another area. I saw many border guards, officers, and soldiers of the National Guard present. A few soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were present. When I asked, “what will we do? What were we waiting for?” – “We are waiting for the Kirov landing party.” – “What are we doing? – “We are not doing anything. We are waiting.“ – “Who is the man in charge?” – “No one in charge.” Understanding the importance of Zhulyany airport – It was the air gateway for the Russians, for the success of the takeover of Kyiv. ...They gathered, and I introduced myself, “I’m general Kryvonos. I am taking the command”. Then I set some tasks. I had some experience in defense and successful experience in defense of airfields. In 2014 during the 47 days, I defended in Kramatorsk.... There were cadets from the military institutions of the Shevchenko University. There was a small unit of the presidential regiment. Again, even just an honor guard company. You understand, these are just the guys who absolutely do not know how to fight. But here, we have to give credit to both the commander of this combined unit and these guys; they did everything right.... (I): There are less than 10 kilometers from the airport to the president’s office. (K): It is seven kilometers only in a straight line and within the city limits.... ....The question is, who gave the command to demine the bridges from Crimea? That is the question that worries everyone.... And who is the traitor the public has yet to hear? And it is very interesting because we don't have the information. There are no comments from top leadership. Accordingly, there is a certain distrust toward the leadership. [March] Russia’s mouth turned out to be too small for big Ukraine, so they decided to bite off Ukraine in pieces, not to swallow it whole....[but] Ukrainian armed forces had severe shell hunger from the end of March – early April. [Apr-Jun] Domination on the field of artillery duels resulted in our losses being far greater than the Russian losses. Because one might imagine war from the old movie, when people go up to the attack and go there in chains, they are shot by machine gunners. Unfortunately, in this war, it’s a bit different. There are considerably fewer shooting contacts than artillery fire. So, at the expense of the artillery advantage, the Russians suffered fewer losses than we did. And the fact that the counter-battery was not tight enough because there were simply no shells.... The first issue the Russians have always practiced in these exercises has always been the redeployment of troops. And we have to give credit for that: they have polished it perfectly. Even from the Far East, they quickly redeployed equipment and people; I say this as a military man.... An enemy has always been identified in the history of the Russian state, whether during the tsar’s time, during the Soviet Union, or now under Putin. So the enemy prevents Russia from living happily.... which has constantly distracted people from the problems in Russia: “the Englishwoman ruined things, the German ruined things, the Finns disturbed us, and someone else disturbed us.” They consider their people cattle, but they realize that cattle can get smarter. That’s why they need to make them go to war. And the war is usually fought by some of the most active segments of the population. So it’s better to let them die in the war, and there will be less. Then there will be more inside Russia. And all the rest will keep quiet, like, excuse me, enslaved people.

... wow, after that suitable-for-framing assessment, this looks pretty lame, but here it is anyway: Anecdata for the 'Scraping the barrel' files....

Welcome, Maciej, to the swelling ranks of CM's elite Polish brigade! I won't repeat my post above, but I'll venture to guess that UKR losses have NOT run 200 KIA per day for at least 6 weeks now, if indeed they ever did. And the Russians definitely aren't giving better than they get. ...I know this sounds awfully trite, but as you know of course, the only way to kill and maim enemy infantry in bulk day-by-day is to be spotting and shelling concentrations of them, preferably on the move and up front, in range of your mortars and direct fire ordnance (not just your heavy guns). And the main way to force them to concentrate that way is by concentrating your own forces. On the move and up front. Bite and hold / 'grab the belt', or by other methods (probes, infiltration). Which is costly. ...That's why almost by definition, an attacker generally loses a lot more than a defender, unless he can achieve a payoff in terms of a rout or encirclement. The latter appear to be fairly few in number since February, thanks to generally superior Ukrainian tactical mobility (not tied to AFVs), NCO initiative and situational awareness. Arithmetic on the Frontier, FWIW.....