The_Capt

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

It is not a question of “complete/not complete” - there is no theoretically consistent complete victory here as it would mean unconditional surrender and likely occupation of Russia while the international community rebuilt a functioning democratic state…in Russia.  So every victory is less than complete.  We can achieve major victory here but the question there is speed. My sense is that a slow stranglehold, containment and marginalization will yield internal change within Russia that has a chance of not coming completely undone. My evidence is the fall of the Soviet Union, not perfect but there is that.  
Other than that we have 1917 which we do not want but can see the conditions for it right in front of us - rigid autocracy largely held up by elites, masses held together by fear and lies, and a grinding war.  Not a perfect fit but we are closer to 1917 than 1991.  So based on historical precedent, slow and steady might give the best shot of eventually getting Ukraine back to where it was and Russia in a position to do internal change that we can work with, without blowing the f#ck up.
If ISW is saying “hey it is 1917 but screw it,” then I disagree with ISW.  18% of Ukraine in 2025 is not worth a nuclear power tearing itself apart uncontrollably. People can doubt this or “poo-poo” the risk but it is simply a reality we have to live with. Further, I know the grown ups are in this headspace or we would have seen NATO airstrikes two years ago (again history is on my side - see Saddam H).
A major victory is possible that would see Ukraine restored, reconstructed and in NATO…and a path to renormalization with Russia. Yep, I said it. You want to frame this war and Russia in terms of the bigger game?  Pull them westward and take all that oil and gas away from China. Now the Russia we renormalize with cannot be Putin’s Russia. It must be a stable democracy (within reason), a functional member of the international community, pay reparations for this war, prosecute war criminals and generally fix itself.  That, is one tall order, but we are on the topic of real victory here.  I do not think we will get this in my lifetime, so we may have to live with a weak and tethered Russia instead.
If you want to talk strategic, look at after this war.  If Ukraine is back to 100% territory and in NATO, it is still not a “complete win”.  In fact the state and facing of Russia is a far bigger issue in the larger game than Ukraine.  And we haven’t even talked about the wall of climate impacts coming our way in about 20 years.

Holy crap…someone has definitely been taking notes.  You bullies in the back take note and do not beat dan up after school.

Your faith in people not being stupid is comforting. However, that same clowns juggling hand grenades blindfolded show thought this entire war was somehow a good idea. To my mind Priggy’s Wild Ride as he fumbled towards ecstasy is a prime example of just how freak show this entire thing can get.
Regardless, we are definitely still in the military solutions space for awhile longer.

I think it paints a pretty accurate picture of the most likely western strategy to be honest.  We are liking seeking a frozen conflict followed by full enfranchisement of Ukraine into the western world - exactly what we did with South Korea.  Russia will be boxed up and made to be China's problem.  Contain and compress into irrelevance, while showing off Ukrainian Brook Shields in blue jeans.
The danger of this theory is that at its core it reduces Russian options down to the nuclear ones.  The assumption being that Russia will never use them.  What is interesting is that as Russia runs out of conventional power options it will be pushed to decision point - accept the western "win" or cross the nuclear threshold.
The only possible exit/off ramp is a major shift in Western (and here, mainly US) policies based on internal political power shifts.  Or we fight to the end and deal with a full on Russian internal collapse.

I think it paints a pretty accurate picture of the most likely western strategy to be honest.  We are liking seeking a frozen conflict followed by full enfranchisement of Ukraine into the western world - exactly what we did with South Korea.  Russia will be boxed up and made to be China's problem.  Contain and compress into irrelevance, while showing off Ukrainian Brook Shields in blue jeans.
The danger of this theory is that at its core it reduces Russian options down to the nuclear ones.  The assumption being that Russia will never use them.  What is interesting is that as Russia runs out of conventional power options it will be pushed to decision point - accept the western "win" or cross the nuclear threshold.
The only possible exit/off ramp is a major shift in Western (and here, mainly US) policies based on internal political power shifts.  Or we fight to the end and deal with a full on Russian internal collapse.

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

Not bad, really.  Some of these would not be my picks, others are “duh”/low hanging fruit.  His first lesson and tanks is self-contradictory.  In this war we are watching old and new weapons try and figure it all out.  If I could pick a quick 8:
1.  Know the war you are in. The West continued failure to really frame this war has led to confusion on the stakes and desired outcomes.
2.  Technology is a symptom of change.  Learning is deterministic.  The side that is able to learn faster in a war of technological disruption has advantage.
3.  Narratives matter.  The authors point on “winning story” really resonates.
4.  Macro and micro lenses.  So much of this war started with Macro lenses being applied.  Now with social media we are galvanized on micro-lenses, often 50 sec vignettes. The balance of perspective is more important now than ever.
5.  Mass, friction and defence/denial have all shifted - direction TBD.  They have done so on the backs of precision and processing.
6.  Open source is both better and worse than filtered mainstream reporting.  We have seen the first real open source information war.  The data collected in this war is exponentially larger and closer to real-time than any in human history.
7.  Hard power is back with a vengeance. The political theories of the post-Cold War centring on soft power and human security have proven inadequate for this war, and likely the next one.  We need to rethink discourse between nations as the dream of collective pressures and “friend-shoring” are nowhere near enough.
8.  All war remains a violent negotiation of irreconcilable certainties that suffers time poorly.  This war, like most, was “come as you are”.  The West needs to learn that “come as you were” is a very poor fit and we need to rethink what the western way of warfare is and build that machine.  Instead we have a mad scramble of a dog’s breakfast of capability being thrown at Ukraine.  NATO standards are a joke. Capacity and industry need a major realignment as the dirt wars of the last 30 years are likely over.

Your faith in people not being stupid is comforting. However, that same clowns juggling hand grenades blindfolded show thought this entire war was somehow a good idea. To my mind Priggy’s Wild Ride as he fumbled towards ecstasy is a prime example of just how freak show this entire thing can get.
Regardless, we are definitely still in the military solutions space for awhile longer.

Not bad, really.  Some of these would not be my picks, others are “duh”/low hanging fruit.  His first lesson and tanks is self-contradictory.  In this war we are watching old and new weapons try and figure it all out.  If I could pick a quick 8:
1.  Know the war you are in. The West continued failure to really frame this war has led to confusion on the stakes and desired outcomes.
2.  Technology is a symptom of change.  Learning is deterministic.  The side that is able to learn faster in a war of technological disruption has advantage.
3.  Narratives matter.  The authors point on “winning story” really resonates.
4.  Macro and micro lenses.  So much of this war started with Macro lenses being applied.  Now with social media we are galvanized on micro-lenses, often 50 sec vignettes. The balance of perspective is more important now than ever.
5.  Mass, friction and defence/denial have all shifted - direction TBD.  They have done so on the backs of precision and processing.
6.  Open source is both better and worse than filtered mainstream reporting.  We have seen the first real open source information war.  The data collected in this war is exponentially larger and closer to real-time than any in human history.
7.  Hard power is back with a vengeance. The political theories of the post-Cold War centring on soft power and human security have proven inadequate for this war, and likely the next one.  We need to rethink discourse between nations as the dream of collective pressures and “friend-shoring” are nowhere near enough.
8.  All war remains a violent negotiation of irreconcilable certainties that suffers time poorly.  This war, like most, was “come as you are”.  The West needs to learn that “come as you were” is a very poor fit and we need to rethink what the western way of warfare is and build that machine.  Instead we have a mad scramble of a dog’s breakfast of capability being thrown at Ukraine.  NATO standards are a joke. Capacity and industry need a major realignment as the dirt wars of the last 30 years are likely over.

Your faith in people not being stupid is comforting. However, that same clowns juggling hand grenades blindfolded show thought this entire war was somehow a good idea. To my mind Priggy’s Wild Ride as he fumbled towards ecstasy is a prime example of just how freak show this entire thing can get.
Regardless, we are definitely still in the military solutions space for awhile longer.

Your faith in people not being stupid is comforting. However, that same clowns juggling hand grenades blindfolded show thought this entire war was somehow a good idea. To my mind Priggy’s Wild Ride as he fumbled towards ecstasy is a prime example of just how freak show this entire thing can get.
Regardless, we are definitely still in the military solutions space for awhile longer.

The official motto of the European continent….

I think it paints a pretty accurate picture of the most likely western strategy to be honest.  We are liking seeking a frozen conflict followed by full enfranchisement of Ukraine into the western world - exactly what we did with South Korea.  Russia will be boxed up and made to be China's problem.  Contain and compress into irrelevance, while showing off Ukrainian Brook Shields in blue jeans.
The danger of this theory is that at its core it reduces Russian options down to the nuclear ones.  The assumption being that Russia will never use them.  What is interesting is that as Russia runs out of conventional power options it will be pushed to decision point - accept the western "win" or cross the nuclear threshold.
The only possible exit/off ramp is a major shift in Western (and here, mainly US) policies based on internal political power shifts.  Or we fight to the end and deal with a full on Russian internal collapse.

I think it paints a pretty accurate picture of the most likely western strategy to be honest.  We are liking seeking a frozen conflict followed by full enfranchisement of Ukraine into the western world - exactly what we did with South Korea.  Russia will be boxed up and made to be China's problem.  Contain and compress into irrelevance, while showing off Ukrainian Brook Shields in blue jeans.
The danger of this theory is that at its core it reduces Russian options down to the nuclear ones.  The assumption being that Russia will never use them.  What is interesting is that as Russia runs out of conventional power options it will be pushed to decision point - accept the western "win" or cross the nuclear threshold.
The only possible exit/off ramp is a major shift in Western (and here, mainly US) policies based on internal political power shifts.  Or we fight to the end and deal with a full on Russian internal collapse.

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

You forgot - “and leave yourselves entirely unprotected so we can come back and finish the job later.”

Long standing board tradition.  In the 120th Thursday of a war we get 12 OT post in a row as a breather….and you just ruined it….now we have to start over.

We will not have the “P” word used in this house!

Looks like this might be happening:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/g7-leaders-finalizing-deal-to-use-frozen-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine-war-efforts-1.6924866

So why is this guy still here?  I mean I get counter thinking and all but this is not “thinking”.  “Clear superiority”?!  A global power who outspent a weaker opponent by nearly 10 to 1 before the war just got pantsed and punked on the global stage.  They are coming up on 1/2 million casualties as they “invade” Ukraine 100 feet at a time.
Russia will run out of gas, is running out of gas and best of all will be next to useless militarily for a decade…all for another 8-10 percent of Ukraine, which they now cannot use because it will be contaminated by mines and UXOs for another century.
Yet, this guy demonstrates the height of “classy” by crowing Russian tactical successes at every turn in complete absence of the operational and strategic picture:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-11-2024
So I do have to ask what value this individual is providing? These are not valid points. This is bald face Russian propaganda.

Long standing board tradition.  In the 120th Thursday of a war we get 12 OT post in a row as a breather….and you just ruined it….now we have to start over.

Not that one..the other one.  It is the name-that-steals-the-light.  The Unholy.  The anti-intelligent.  The namesake of the Forbidden Thread.  A thread of sins finally washed away in the waters of this one - “Long may the Hot thread reign!” (Seriously, once this war is over there will likely be another right behind it, sadly).