Holien

Sometimes a change at the top is needed. Mark Clark removed John Lucas from VI Corps command at Anzio even though Lucas arguably saved the beachhead from destruction by not overreaching with his relatively meager forces. However, it took Lucien Truscott to actually effect the breakout. 
Now, I'm not saying that this new guy is suddenly gonna have the keys to success but sometimes a new perspective is needed. 

I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.
Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.

Several days ago UKR social media shared scandal video, where servicemen of Dnipro city special purpose police regiment (former riot police "Berkut") rejected to execute an order, transferring them to National Police brigade "Liut' " ("Rage")
Moreover, personnel of the regiment became to speak typical pro-Russian stamps and insult the chief deputy of Dnipro police directorate, who came to them with the order, naming him "Maidan scum". Policemen cried "You have no right to dispose our lives!", "The law doesn't say we have to go at the war!", "We reject to execute this criminal order", We paid our debt to our state, when we defended it on Maidan under Molotov coctails!", "You can go at the war yourself!"
Acording to the law any force structure during martial law is a part of Defense Forces and have to execute orders as well participate in combat if this need. 
The video caused the tsunamy of the hate - police, like courts and prosecutors considered by Ukranian society as more corrupted structures, which defends not a law, but thoise who have a money.  By the way many servicemen in these special purpose police units (from 50-70 in the company to about 250-300 in regiment) are former "Berkut" servicemen, which were restored by court in service with support of former minister of internal affairs Arsen Avakov. Most of these units continue to be a carriers of anti-Maidan moods. Also there are many conflicts between them and AFU servicemen on checkpoints in the rear. You can see on the photo - the servicemen are very tough bulls, not 50 y.o. tired riflemen in trenches. They in perfect physical conditions, but for them easily to show own strenght and power defending interersts of corrupted system and to chase granmas, trading apples near transport stops, than go at the war. Many of them consider themselves as untouched caste and many of new guys, who came to these units quicly become the same dumb buffalos. So, society returns them the same hate, like in 2014.   
Despite many policemen and retired policemen enlisted to volunteer police battalions and regimnets, which in 2023 were united in "Liut' " assault brigade, police have a reservation from sending to frontline to AFU. But they can be transferred to this brigade, subordinated to National Police.
Today leadership of National Police issued a reaction - Dnipro special purpose police regiment will be disbanded. All staff wiil be moved to "Liut' " brigade. Who will reject to transfer will be fired from police service and will receive mobilization summon to AFU. Let see how this ends. Many people believe these pro-Russian scum just will pay money to military medical commitee in order they "found" many deceases and recognized them unfit for service
  

Russians reportedly dropped yesterday on Avdiivka and around 84 gliding bombs. As if Russian commanders got the order to put a flag on the coke plant not later than Monday. Also by unconfirmed yet info, they siginficantly recuced attacks on southern flank of Bakhmut,  taking part of troops from there to Avdiivka. 
 

The article of Defense Express (in English) about disassembling of newest jet Shahed-238, which was shot down recently

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/jet_driven_shahed_238_disassembled_engine_from_chechia_satellite_navigation_tools_from_canada_photo-9437.html
Short list of parts and country manufacturers (detailed with photos in the article):
Engine TJ150 - BPS "Velka Bites" (Czech Republic)
SAT navigation signal receiver TW4721- Tallysman (Canada)
SAT Nav signal processing - the board with USA chips from Intel, Analog Devices and NXP USA Inc.
Inertial navigation - STM Microelectronic (Switzerland) and Analog Devices (USA) 
Flight control board - Texas Instruments (USA)
 

Nadezhdin use for us is an indication of the problems Putler is facing.
He was never going to win, but he was needed to make a sham election "look" like an election. 
The fact he has been pulled speaks volumes about Moscows lack of control of the sham.
 

Yep, the one good thing coming out of the current T mess in America is that Europe seems to be stepping up and in the short term until Europe has internal production sorted America will gain more sales.
It would be good if deals on key ammunition could be done at cost plus small % profit. 
Ukraine needs to keep Russia at bay and we (Europe) have to provide them with at a minimum the ammunition to do so. Even if that means spending money in America. 

There are some key systems that are only available from the USA. Some of these are: HIMARS/M270 munitions, Patrioit intercepters, AMRAAM/AIM-9(airToAir&GroundToAir) ...
Even if Europe made the decisions to invest in own production it could take a decade and would in many cases make very little sense. Of course it is important for Europe to raise its production capacity and it is already doing it, but there is the transitional period with the long "lead times" and some systems will never be made in Europe. 
Lets make the hypothetical example that Europe had weapons available 5% of Ukraines needs and USA had 1000% available of Ukraines needs. Would it not make sense for the weapons come from the USA with cost split fairly between Europe and the USA?

What message politically does that send the US? If you won't supply Ukraine to defend your own national interests, we'll reward you by paying you billions of dollars and do it for you?
Defending Ukraine is in Europe's interests too of course, which is why they are spending money on it.  But for things like artillery shells it is better to invest the money in their own production capacity,  not throwing it at the US as a temporary solution and ignoring the long term one. 
Particularly true if the US is going to become an unreliable ally that is going to abandon allies because of internal ideological politics.

This is very sad, but looks like Avdiivka battle comes to the end and, alas, not in our favor (not counting about two divisional vehicle sets, which Russians lost here). 
During last three days Russians captured quarry area on the NE of the town and gained foothold in dachas and first streets of northern part of Avdiivka. Yesterday they broke through overpass bridge in front of coke plant. Also reportedly for last two days Russians dropped on Avdiivka about week amout of gliding bombs. 
110th mech.brigade, defending the town itself is completely exhausted, drone operators almost don't sleep by days - FPV attacks and Mavicks maintaining resistance in conditions of artillery shells shortage. But bad weather in last days limited their flights and this immediately gave opportunity to the enemy, having overhelming advantage in manpower. Russians continuously replenish own troops with fresh meat, they go forward, die and next meat come behind of them, death conveyor is working, but Russians achive own goals in this way. 
Our artillery near Avdiivka keep almost full silence already four days - no shells. So 110th brigade command moved to positions as riflemen almost all rear services soldiers, because no more opportunity except FPVs and contact clashes to hold this horde. 
But not only ammunition shortage led to this situation. 
- OTUV "Tavria" command (gen.Tarnavskyi) again repeated all mistakes of Bakhmut defense. Expecting that Russians will assault stronpoints (like factories in Bakhmut and coke plant in Avdiivka) directly, when they use enough flexible tactic and after first fails attacked on flanks, made many bogus small assaults to confuse about real attack directions
- passivity of OTUV "Tavria" comamnd, as far as before October, when Russians recently captured Krasnohorivka and began to fill this northern "balcony" above Avdiivka with troops. 
- no reserve fortifications on flanks of Avdiivka. Only when Russians crossed railways, we started to establish some positions, but in conditions of unstable weather when frosts change themeselves with rains and mud it was belated idea
- manpower lack and fatigue. 110th brigade two years fights in this place and never was rotated for rest in full composition. Other units, who were moved here from Zaporizhzhia front also weren't rested and replenished after summer clashes, when Russians continously were replenishing own units. 
- weak air defense capabilities. For whole Avdiivka battle Russians lost only one aircraft. 
The map of northern part of Avdiivka for 5-6th of Feb. Avdiivka is on 90 % is private 1-2 storey cottages, only on the south east from coke plant there is small "Khimic" ("Chemestrian") micro-district with multistorey urban type buildings for coke plant employees. These are so-called "Old Avdiivka" and "New Avdiivka"
 

Today we had next missile strike.
Kyiv form 6:00 to 7:30 of morning was under attack too. about 20 missiles were shot down over the city and on approaches. Alas, fragments of one missile hit residental buulding, causing death of four people and wounding of 36.
Two more were wounded in other place, where allegedly newest 3M22 "Zirkon" hypersonic missile hit the ground between two malls. This is in 5 km from my house. In result power lines was damaged, and part of our district was cut off from electricity and heating for several hours (but not our residental area)
The palce of "Zirkon" (ot its fragments) impact - Air Force Command didn't claim intercepted ballistic missiles today, but also didn't mean about "Zirkon" strike.

Allegedly "Zirkon" fragment with 3M22 marking, fouded near the crater. But this marking made like by hand and we have too few information about "Zirkon", so nobody now can't say for shure what type of missile it was. "Zirkon" is newest Russian sea-launched hypersonic missile with probable range 1000-1500 km and 400 kg warheed. It's not adopted yet, but reportedly first usage in Ukriane was on 29th Dec 2023, when it hit Zaporizhzhia. Some later the similar missile hit Dnipro. Curerently unknown what Russian ship on balcj sea or submarine could launch it. Russians tested it with new frigades pr. 22530M "Admiral Grigorovich" and nuclear submarine "Perm' ", but this vessels are from Northern Fleet. Allegedly "Zirkon" can be launched from upgraded launchers for "Onyx" and "Kalibr". Probably it was launced from the ground. 

 Kharkiv also was under attack. Initially all five missiles were claimed as S-300, but later two of them were identified as N.Korean KN-23. 

Mykolaiv. Kh-22 missile hit on the street of private houses. In result of impact 70 houses were damaged, 2 killed, 20 wounded.
 
Result of AD work today (morning info, while weren't clarifications of N.Korean missiles and allegedle "Zirkon"):
20 Shaheds - 15 shot down
29 Kh-101 - 26 shot down
3 Kalibr - 3 shot down
4 Kh-22 - no interceptions
3 Iskander-M - no interceptions
5 S-300 - no interceptions

Some hackers did some sleuthing about Shahed imports.
"The Iranian side announced a starting price of $375,000 per unit. However, during the negotiations, an agreement was reached for $193,000 per piece when ordering 6,000 units or $290,000 when ordering 2,000 units. The total price of the production contract, including the transfer of technologies, equipment, 6,000 pieces of UAVs and software, is roughly $1.75 billion. According to other published documents, at least partially, Russia conducts its financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold."

Alas, it was enough typical for western Ukriane as far as since 2014. Many patriotism in speeches, portrays of Bandera, but when the war came, as far as in 2014 many men of highland regions fled to work to Europe and to... Russia. In the same way representatives of enlistment offices met in some villages by angry mobs. This is just local mentality. The state must supply us, but  we don't owe anything to the state. Of course this is not bother for westren Ukriainans with pathos to tell you how only "Halychyna and Volyn boys fight at the war for this damned russian-speaking "easterners", when they (easterners) fled to western Ukraine. This is also doesn't bother to them to lease own apaprtments for refujees for cosmic money and sit in Poland, Germany and Slovakia as "refujees", getting social payments for money of local taxpayers. According to last statistic about Ukrainian refujees in Poland, among top-10 oblasts representattives, the western ones make up more than 30 %.   

Alright this will be my last post regarding this guy for a while, I'm frankly getting tired of seeing his face. Don't think I'm the only one who feels this way by now.
Here is the Newsweek article Jonasz and the KyivPost are referencing.
Exclusive: Tucker Carlson Could Face Sanctions Over Putin Interview (NewsWeek)
 

When talking about Zaluzhny and Zelensky, it's important to take note of the mobilization issue: 
It's pretty clear that the general with his ask of 500,000 men has little understanding of the political problems such a step could cause. That's why you don't let generals over rule politicians. 

AFU is getting a new branch focused on drones.
Ukrainian military to have dedicated drone branch (Yahoo.com)
In other news as has already been brought up, we now know what Mr.Carlson is doing in Moscow. Can't say I'm shocked. Tucker has been parroting the Kremlin's talking points for years, now he can just sit down relax and have Putin make the same talking points without Tucker even needing to open his mouth.  Thankfully Mira of Kyiv has posted a drinking game we can play while watching the interview.
 
 

One more caveat: 
A big difference in American politics now from even 7 years ago is that there is a lot of actual intimidation going on on the Republican side. GOP pols get swatted (i.e. have bogus hostage/shooting calls made to police with their address), their kids get targeted online, they deal with waves of threatening emails, calls and texts if they publicly break with Trump. Nikki Haley was swatted in December at her home and just applied for Secret Service protection because of the unrelenting and violent comms she gets. When 20 GOP Senators who would have killed for this border bill in 2015 run cowering from it, it's not because they suddenly had a change of heart. They were scared off it for both political and personal reasons. 
One of America's parties has entered a very dark phase and it's not going to get better unless they lose and keep losing.

Well you have already been pretty badly mauled over this on already but lets unpack it a little further.  First off "this" is not a "narrative", it is analysis and assessment.  A narrative would be whatever you think my analysis was promoting.  Much in that same way your own analysis is promoting another narrative.
But lets just break down your points:
1.  Range.  So you claim that the Adiivka salient is critical to continued UA ability to strike the "heart of Donetsk" and why it is so important to both the RA and UA.   Well that statement simply does not hold up.
 
So that first one is a 22.5km circle from the center of Donetsk.  As can be seen about the closest anyone is going to bring guns in the Adiivka salient is in and around Orlivka.  Any closer and those guns are extremely vulnerable.  Plus it is as close as the UA needs to get with modern base bleed rounds from 152mm or 155mm rounds. The major problem with your theory at point #1 is that the UA has a lot of terrain within the same gun ranges...that aren't currently in a threatened salient.  Neetaliove and Krasnohorivka are both well within the same ranges, with far more free terrain to shoot and scoot.  So unless the UA is parking guns right in the middle of the Adiivka salient (and they do not need to take that risk) this entire point of your argument falls apart.  The UA can threaten Russian logistics from various points, none of them rely on the "critical node" of Adiivka.
Ok, point #2 - Fortification.  Well ok, I can accept that it is heavily fortified.  Well first question is "how many of those fortifications are new?"

Adiivka was a front line town back in 2015.  So how old are all those bunkers?  But let's say that they are indeed new.  Well why would the UA build such heavy fortifications - likely on top of ones nearing ten years old?  One conclusion is that this is somehow key terrain/vital ground.  Or the other is that the UA has fortified because the RA keep attacking there.  The fact that either side has fortified is a signal that this area is worth something, but it does not establish what that value is, or is not.  Like Bakhmut, I suspect the value for the UA, on a piece of terrain they were fighting over for nearly a decade, is that it does threaten Donetsk...politically.  It is a line on the map pointing at a rebel/Russian controlled city.  That makes it an insult, a poke in the eye - but does not translate into military value.  The UA could threaten Donetsk from about a 90 degree angle - as those other maps showed.  So this is all about "I have it and you can't get it back."  followed by "I disagree".  The primary Ukrainian military value is the fact that significant numbers of Russians are being pushed to die there.  Just like Bakhmut, which also fell and somehow did not lead to a full collapse of the entire UA defensive line.
And point #3 - "Ukrainian shelling civilians".  Ok, if we are going to start throwing "narrative" around, I think I can smell where the one you are promoting one is coming from.  The idea that Russia suddenly cares so much about Donetsk civilians who are suffering under the warcrimes of the UA is a pretty bold statement to toss out without a shred of proof.  Do you have any references that show this?  The actual loss of civilian lives in Dontesk?  I am sure it has happened but do we have any proof of UA terror strikes in Donetsk?  As to shelling ranges...see point #1.  As to a Russian "hearts and minds" campaign...well they probably are coming late to that table given the horrendous losses the LNT/DPR have already suffered in the service of the Russian cause. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
The idea that a nation that has acted brutally with clear disregard of the LAOC suddenly "cares too much" is pretty weak.
Point #4 - you kinda snuck this one in under the door.  Ukrainian losses.  Well we know they are not zero, but given simple realities of defensive vs offensive, along with what we can see, the ratio is very likely in Ukraine's favour.  How heavily in that favour remains unknown.  What we do know is that despite losses, the UA has managed to hold this area under RA assault for over 3 months.  This tells us that the losses have been sustainable.  Russia has also suffered horrendous losses but keeps on attacking, so also sustainable...for now.  Russia could be trying to wear the UA down to the point is suffers an operational collapse.  But we have not seen this yet.  We did not see it at Bakhmut and I have doubts it will happen here at Adiivka.  In the end we will have to see but the levels of hardware the RA is losing alone brings into question the value of this current operation.
Last point - "Dumb Russia". Well here you are correct.  We do no service to ourselves assuming Russia is always "dumb."  However, we also do disservice if we assume that they are smarter than they are too, which appears a plague in some political circles.  Throwing away a division on a piece of ground of dubious value is not militarily smart - it may very well be politically smart, I personally do not see it but...  Russia has a pretty bad track record of bad ideas politically driven in this war, pretty much right from the start.  They have made some pretty basic errors - like don't try and defend with a river behind you that has only one viable crossing; don't overreach and then double down on that overextension.  I strongly suspect that Adiivka is being politically pushed from the top.  It is a demonstration in the making.  A demonstration to the Russia people, in their state controlled information bubbles, that Russia is still "winning".  How politically smart or dumb that is, I will leave to others.  Militarily, Adiivka is a horrible idea.  Attacking heavily fortified enemy positions in continuing frontals, losing entire Bns at a time is not militarily smart.
Finally, I am not sure where you are getting these points from.  Perhaps they are personal analysis, which is fine but you should likely work to learn more and refresh a lot of your metrics and assumptions.  If you are getting them elsewhere (I get a strong whiff of MacGregor) would suggest you balance them out and keep coming back here with good questions.

From UKR TG:
Fierce battle took place throughout 5-6th of Feb near Bilohorivka (south from Kreminna). Russian attack started at the 3-00 of night and finished at 2-00 of night today. After intensive artillery shellings they were contiuously attacking during  the day, pausing only for regroup and waiting for next arty barrage and glide bomb strikes. Several companies and up to 20 armored vehicles were involved.
Initially Russians took the initiative and push off our troops from eight positions in local industrial zone (likely water pump station SE from the village). Among Russian tanks was spotted even one T-55. 
At the second half of the day UKR troops regrouped and counter attacked Russians, expelling them from seven captured posititions. Russians now control only part of garages. 
On one of directions of this battle Russian losses are 2 tanks, 4 BMP, up to 40 infantry KIA. Our unit on this direction lost 1 KIA and 6 WIA. 
 

Not only in the "pocket", but whole Avdiivka front: 110th mech brigade, 47th mech.brigade, 116 mech.birgade, 53rd mech.brigade, battalion of 63rd mech,brigade, National Guard "Omega" special forces elements, combined police and border guard detachments 

I afraid, nobody can say real reasons. Zelenskiy said "I'm thinking about rotation of high military command and not only military leaders, we need to give new pulse to leadership of country. We can't despair, can't give up. We should push everybody in one direction". 
The minister of vetaran affairs resigned today.
There are rumors that Zelenskiy is going to substitute also chief of General Staff general-lieutenant Serhiy Shaptala.
But who can sit oт their places? President's Office (Yermak) is allegedly searching candidatures, but... who dares to take huge responsibility on this duty? Rumors say Sysrskiy and Budanov as most loyal to president rejected to be on the place of Zaluzhnyi and even stood for Zaluzhyi has to remain on own duty. But probably Zelenskiy is very dissapointed by summer campaign results and those who planned this operation - both Shaptala and Zaluzhnyi now should be "punished", especially after Zaluzhnyi in straight way told about "dead end" of war, which can be resolved onlt by significant technological superiruty, and criticized political leadership that they didn't do anything to encourage citizens go to army.
Among soldiers Zaluzhnyi also slightly lost own popularity. Despite he continuously talks that stupid Soviet way of army managment and bureaucracy is almost gone, but soldiers say Soveit marasmus in army is growing month by month. Of course this is mostly work of MoD, not of Chief-in-Command or General Staff, but private Mykola see around the same "sovok" and naturaly blame all top-brass including Zaluzhnyi too.
So, if Zaluzhnyi resigned (and this will be terrible mistake of Zelenskiy), I doubt we will see "march on Kyiv". Troops just accepted new chief and will do own work   
 

I think this is an extension of the whole Zelensky/Zaluzny thing.  Politically towns and cities matter very much.  Militarily the answer is far less cut and dry. 
Looking on the map:

Adiivka has next to zero operational value.  It is stubborn salient that the RA is breaking a division upon - that is its military value.  If Adiivka falls it means next to nothing unless this is somehow the lynchpin of the entire UA defence in this sector - which we know it is not.  No natural obstacles, no transport infra implications.  Any core resources or communications tech centered on Adiivka?
This whole "not one step back" plays well to the public but in reality land war is a lot of trading ground for options.  And right now the RA is not buying anymore options through this whole exercise. 
"But if we lose it, we will just have to take it back."  Well true, but if the RA breaks another division there, perhaps it might be much easier to take back afterwards?  And frankly this whole sector is an offensive nightmare - you take back Adiivka...so what?  Next stop is an urban hell called Donetsk.  This is a side show the RA is being pushed into politically and blowing itself all to hell over.  So Ukraine should keep it just as long as it keep delivering 10:1 loss ratios for the RA.  After that pull back and find another Bakhmut/Aviidka and let the RA smash itself to pieces.
As to Bradleys and Abrahams - sure keep them coming but they are not what this fight will ride on.  C4ISR, unmanned, infantry and guns - get those right and then if there is room on the plane, load a Bradley.
The RA is not some bottomless behemoth.  It is a mess of a military that is playing chicken with itself.  Eventually it will lose.

And speaking of Ukrainian success.  If those numbers flying around are even halfway correct, the RA has lost around an entire Bde - maybe up to crippling a Div - on this one little (and operationally insignificant) town over the last 3 months.
The UA could pull out right now and this is a major win.

Can’t speak to the reliability of this report from Telegram, but it does potentially provide some details on what’s happening on the ground at Avdiivka:
AVDIVKA UPDATE
 
Russian forces in the south west salient they created have effectively been cut off as Ukraine has regained the key fortified area of the restaurant services area.
Russia tried to send a column to reinforce their troops in Avdivka’s lower streets, but this was annihilated.
The Russians used a 2km waste water service pipe to get behind the restaurant and into south Avdivka. It’s very narrow and they had to crawl through it, so supplying and reinforcing the now cut off island they’re in in south Avdivka is near impossible, if not pointless.
The tunnel needs to be destroyed at both ends and it’s deep so this hasn’t yet happened.
Eradicating the Russians in the housing they occupied is well underway.
Overall the Russian operation was quite imaginative and it gave them a major gain -  taking the southern defences completely and the Ukrainians by surprise. In some ways the Ukrainians should have expected use of the tunnel, or at least taken precautions to block it. It’s far more likely they just never expected it could be used if they even remembered it was there.
Russian success  - and it was, there’s no getting away from that, it was a daring and imaginative operation, was simply not followed up. Senior commanders doubted its likely success and no one was ready to exploit it until it was far too late. By then the Ukrainians had snatched back the restaurant’s fortification, because nobody reinforced the Russian forces, and now the few remaining Russian troops are more or less trapped, and the whole thing has turned into a Russian disaster. It’s not something Ukraine will fall for again and they’re probably looking to make sure nothing like happens anywhere else either.
This could have been the most consequential move the Russians made in months.
If they had been ready to exploit the success and acted quickly, given it the support it needed, they could have surrounded Zenit and have broken deep into Avdivka. It would in all likelihood have been the beginning of a much faster end for the town which would have quickly become untenable.
Instead their own handful of competent people were as usual, let down by hide bound commanders with zero imagination. Ukraine has always worked well against such opponents and did so again. That they were just as quick to see what had happened and responded with lightning pace to retake the initiative says it all.