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chris talpas

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  1. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's because they are all familiar with the default Combat Mission UI and think that rifles should be green. They are probably wondering if it turns yellow when the owner is injured.
  2. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shooting-blast-reported-concert-hall-near-moscow-agencies-2024-03-22/

    Quick tinfoil hat take:

    Putin secures election 'legitimacy'
    Peskov says it's no longer a Special Military Operation, it's a War
    Terror attack in Moscow
    ...
    Mobilisation
  3. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    the greatest nation in the world -- held hostage by lunatics due to the unbelievable cowardice of GOP congressmen & women and a GOP voter base-cult that's so brainwashed it doesn't even know where reality even begins anymore.  Disgraceful and sickening.  
  4. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I dunno.  My cat was really aggressive and peeing all over the place.  Then I got him "fixed" and he behaves a whole lot better.
  5. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, that's true. He doesn't have the running shoes on yet, but he is thinking really hard about the socks.
  6. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well kudos for trying to wrestle with it.  There is a lot in the wind with respect to warfare right now. All of my theories could easily collapse tomorrow.  I spent the first year of this war, mouth agape, trying to figure out what was going on.  The second year, things started to form, but they are nothing more than shadows we can see from the outside.
    Now into the third year, I am convinced of some things, which if wargaming has taught me anything, is about the time Bil H drops the bomb and blows up my entire plan.
  7. Upvote
  8. Upvote
    chris talpas got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would love to see our country up their game in the Czechia ammunition initiative.  Our $30M CDN (22M US) looks a bit anemic against Norway’s 143 M €.  Although I realize their finances are in better order.
     
  9. Upvote
    chris talpas got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would love to see our country up their game in the Czechia ammunition initiative.  Our $30M CDN (22M US) looks a bit anemic against Norway’s 143 M €.  Although I realize their finances are in better order.
     
  10. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Eddy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:
    Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)
    Co-pilot summary
     
  11. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh boo hoo, we have given so much to Ukraine, why not Europe give their "fair share"? Why must America lead...Are we not the world superpower? Are we not the best, strongest, most advanced military world-wide? Do we not have the strongest economy? Tell me how starving our ally of ammunition of cold war era shells does anything positive for our standing to compete with China. Tell me how illustrating that America cannot compete in a war of attrition with some of the decrepit remains of the Soviet Union somehow strengthens us to for a future competing with the world's factory (China). And I'm not being rhetorical, come here you supporter of Ukraine and Trump/Republican Party and tell me how America is benefitting from not funding artillery shells for Ukraine. I am sick and tired of seeing this notion existing, that the Republican Party/Trump will be stronger on China, on ensuring America will be safe when they can't fund goddamn cold war era shells for Ukraine. Am I being "political"? So sorry, but fair is fair, can't bash Europe without being fair to America.
  12. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think describing an actual reality is 'getting too domestic'. Trump and his acolytes have made it clear that should he win, Ukraine...and indeed Taiwan...is on it's own and the pressure he is putting on Congress to stymie aid is proof of it.
    If you want Ukraine to win, get out there and help make it happen. 
    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    The Senate-passed Ukraine aid package has been put up for a discharge petition today. If it reaches 216 signatures, it can be brought to a vote even against the Speaker's opposition. == As of 12 March == Total signatures: 169 (out of 216 needed) Needed signatures remaining: 47 Democrat signatures: 169 (with 44 remaining). No Republicans have signed yet. We assess: Republican Reps are waiting to see how many Democrats sign before they make a decision. Current top priority: CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE! -- If they haven't signed yet - urge them to sign the discharge petition (H.Res. 1016) to bring Ukraine aid (bill H.R. 815) to a vote. -- If they've already signed on - ask them to reach out to their colleagues to encourage them to sign. You can check your Rep's status at: http://bit.ly/discharge815 Now that the working day is over, we can start intensively circulating the shortlist of Democrats who have not yet signed the discharge petition. This graphic is based on the data at http://bit.ly/discharge815. Both that list and this graphic are by @community4Ukraine. #call4ukraine Reposts welcome - no credit required. Community for Ukraine
  13. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    All america literally needs to do is make shells. Buy shells. Just make some goddamn artillery ammunition. Just buy some shells from a 3rd party, stuff them into a C-5 or a cargo ship and send them to Europe. And yet for months, months we have simply been unable to.
    Disgraceful. There is literally no evidence that certain someone who benefits from this situation will should he be elected, not change this stance of non-assistance. This entire fiasco is due to him not pushing for this to be passed in the first place. This isn't a case of stuff that is in short supply, or needs to be hoarded (the money to buy the shells is the money to open more production lines!!!!!!), it is simply for one reason.
  14. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Truly America is so stupid. We can't provide a tiny portion of our gdp to a cause most Americans are fine with, to which no American lives are at risk, to degrade the ability of a enemy, and strengthen our own standing in the world....and we are willingly throwing it away. Holy ****, why would any nation ally with us vs China.
    We are starving our ally of life for literally no ****ing reason. No reason except as a favor to a certain someone. And no none of the flimsy excuses pass, most Americans, most senators, representatives support Ukraine or at least espouse sentiments to such.
  15. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    An update from Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi:
    https://t.me/osirskiy/615 
     
  16. Upvote
  17. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lies, damn lies, statistics, and economic statistics. Reminds me of the old joke!
    Two economists are walking in the park. As they're walking, they come across a pile of dog ****.
    One economist says to the other, "If you eat that dog ****, I'll give you $50". The second economist thinks for a minute, then reaches down, picks up the ****, and eats it. The first economist gives him a $50 bill and they keep going on their walk.
    A few minutes later, they come across another pile of dog ****. This time, the second economist says to the first, "Hey, if you eat that, I'll give you $50." So, of course, the first economist picks up the ****, eats it, and gets $50.  
    Walking a little while farther, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $50 to eat dog ****, then you gave me back the same $50 to eat dog ****. I can't help but feel like we both just ate dog **** for nothing."
    "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $100
  18. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1766256716214100061?t=3Q7rTwMgjJ4ITNUn1qIT9g&s=19
  19. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't worry we will have nano Grey Goo to clean all that up...and eat humanity while they are at it.
  20. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Frankly, I'm as shocked about this development as anybody.
  21. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lol
     
  22. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well said. We're not going to beat fast, light and cheap with slow, heavy and expensive. Examples abound in history - battleships v airplanes being the closest example. 
  23. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Drones Today
    The ongoing war in Ukraine showcases small drones as key tools for ground combat in the modern era. The technology behind them will continue to improve, as machine guns did, by becoming more reliable, portable, and tactically useful. Ukraine and Russia are desperate for better and more drones to equip their forces. This year, the Ukrainian government aims to produce one million small drones for military use, and its partners are focusing on supplying thousands more. As much as 50 percent of Russia’s modern T-90 tank combat losses are attributed to small first-person-view drones. Over 3,000 verified drone strikes occurred along the front line in January 2024. At the same time, Russian forces are building and using drones with equal zeal. In at least one case, a bakery was converted to 3D printing drones, and public schools are teaching classes on drone flying along with other martial topics. Small drones are becoming the defining technology of the conflict."
    That is just nuts.  Excellent article.
    As to western military integration, let's just say it has been "spotty".  We are all watching this war, but just like on this forum at times, we are all seeing what we want to see and not necessarily what is actually happening.  Before this war in the Canadian military UAS programs were a hot mess.  The RCAF still does not have an unmanned platform within its fleets.  They are getting one, but in typical fashion it will be some large Strategic/operational beast.  This is not all bad as we need these too, but the smaller stuff, Class 2 and below, are all being handled internally by each service.  This has led to the capability spinning off in a bunch of directions.  So as to training and force development, it is kinda all over the map right now and changing daily.  No one expected to see naval drones swarming a patrol ship that looks a lot like our AOPS. No one could have imagined "1 million" FPVs who appear to be doing most of the tank killing back in March of '22 - hell my money was on ATGMs, like Javelin, which definitely worked but were not even close to becoming the major shocker.
    We have major issues with deconfliction, training standards, training clearances, frequency management - ranges and training areas are not set up for FPV gunnery - I am not even sure what that looks like.  Simulators are our best bet, but we will spend 5-10 years buying some massively bloated system or some app-garbage built by some "diversity group" (see: ArriveCAN app).  All this is of course also held up by procurement friction.  Some organizations are out in front - but they shall remain unnamed - however even they are struggling at times.  We definitely do not have doctrine or established tactics.  Frankly I do not even know where to start on Unmanned Battlefield Management, I mean what do the supply lines even look like?  Training, C2 and effective employment are all behind the curve. 
    Our reactions and culture are not competitive either.  With few exceptions, I have largely heard of the "drone problem" as just that, a problem to be managed so we can get our current "stuff" to work like it used to.  Few are pointing at the competitive opportunities here.
    And all the while the Chinese are pushing ahead:   https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/List/ORIGIN_china--people-s-republic-of-d6ee02&DOM_air-e61af2&DOM_aircraft-42b8bd&DOM_unmanned-aerial-vehicles--uavs--bc8e46
     https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/List/ORIGIN_china--people-s-republic-of-d6ee02&DOM_land-f5e1db&DOM_infantry-vehicles-0a6516&DOM_unmanned-ground-vehicles--ugv--453001
    It is one of my final departing shots - we have seen this coming for years and largely ignored it.  We either get with the program or we risk losing the few military options we have left.
     
  24. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It could be that to protect the bridge they need the ships out patrolling...
    Who wants to bet that Ukraine has more Drones than Russia has ships...
  25. Upvote
    chris talpas reacted to Tenses in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What I mean by saying that grain exports are not contributing to the war effort is that it provides money. From quick search it seems that agricultural exports peaked in its value in 2021 by adding 27.8 B$ to GDP(so it is not cash, just taxable economic value). Unfortunately money alone is not enough to pop out warplanes, tanks, drones etc. Of course having smaller deficit is nice and will put less strain on western countries, which at the moment effectively keep Ukraine afloat thanks to covering its deficits, but it does not change the situation of war effort by any means. If there would be no grain export, West would have to pay higher bill for keeping Ukraine up, but lets face that, money is of least concern, especially for countries like Germany, which are more comfortable with paying the bills than military support(not saying that they not help, just prefer to base support on money for various reasons).
    Overall the cost of covering Ukraine deficit is not a big deal for western joint effort. Much bigger problem would be, if entire north Africa started to starve. This was Ruzzians main target to create further disruption in the western countries by destabilizing masses of hungry Africans. They are actively supporting illegal African immigrants long before the war started so it would fit perfectly in this strategy. Any Ukrainian income, which would be hurt during the process was secondary target.
    In general, keeping the grain exports up is important for various of reasons like mentioned World food security issue, better economy kickstart after the war, etc. but won't help directly in any meaningful way in fighting Ruzzians. When Ukraine kicks out the last Ruzzian out of its borders, we can surely expect very powerful rebuild program, which should put the country back on its tracks despite any previous headwinds.
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