chris talpas

I do not dispute the RAs behaviour in this war has been abhorrent.  It is a stain on them as a military that will not wash off on our lifetimes.  
But…illegality in warfare is not a scoreboard or balance sheet.  Any UA alleged warcrime should be investigated and prosecuted by the Government of Ukrainian. If they are smart (and I think they are very smart), these will be transparent and public fair trials within their legal system.  It does not matter that “Russia has done worse”.  Reprisals have no place in determining the righteousness of any action.
As to Russia, a major reason we will be unable to renormalize with that country is the outstanding war criminality on display.  Without full prosecution…and it goes pretty high up the chain, we should not lift sanctions and put out warrants for known RA perpetrators.  Russia’s continual disregard for the law of armed conflict will be why they likely will remain boxed up as a nation and never allowed to rejoin Europe…or at least one would hope.

The minister of finance is a complete lackey for ultra neo market liberalism. So he insists on austerity, introducing tax cuts for the mega rich and cutting social benefits at every corner.
Almost the entirety of internal German government work is trying to work around his constant political sabotage of every project. 
I don't think his party will even make it over the 5% lower limit you need to get into parliament in 2025. In autumn of that year are the next parliamentary elections, and unless something strange happens, the new government will support Ukraine.
 

Potentially a significant cauldron is forming...
 

Warmer.
 

Ok, we are not going to go down this road again.  There really is no point trying to outshout each other and neither of us can really prove or disprove anything here on a wargame forum in the outer rim of the internet.  We have both been exposed to information and have come up with deductions and conclusions.  You have your opinions which you have presented, and I have mine.  We both have sources we have cited and the veracity of those sources is really up to the reader to decide for themselves.
Now the one missing piece in all this is background credibility.  I do not really know your background but clearly you have got some good sources in the RUSINT sphere, and you speak the language which is a very big plus.  Where you got your expertise in translating what you are seeing in that sphere, you have never shared but it is obvious to me that you are familiar with military operations.
Ok, now as to me.  Funny thing, I just released from the military so I can be more open about what I did at work.  So the reader can take my opinions at face value but they should understand where they are coming from.  Most here know I served at our staff college as DS/Instructor, but I have never made public here what my day job in fact was.  For the last ten years I have been a strategic advisor to three commanders of Canadian SOF.  I will not go into details as to what that means but readers can perhaps get a better understanding of where I am coming from when I say "fully illuminated battlefield" is a reality, and a reality in Ukraine.  Again, I will not go into details but it is no great secret that the architectures I am talking about have been operationalized in this war, before it actually, and on both sides though to a more limited extent for Russia.  There is plenty of open source evidence and indicators of this so I encourage people to go out and find answers for themselves.
So while your viewpoint is no doubt valid, from your point of view, I can say with authority that there are pieces of the larger picture you are not seeing.  Pieces that soldiers on the ground on either side of this war are not seeing.  Modern militaries are very large systems within larger systems. The character of those systems has evolved significantly in the last twenty years as we went into CT operations world wide.
No point yelling back and forth at each other, we in fact likely agree on more than we disagree.  I can tell you that the C4ISR reality I describe exists, and there is plenty of evidence if one looks around a bit - not everything in this war occurs on Telegram.  It is not available to social media at all.  The impacts of these systems are in fact consistent with the phenomenon we have seen in this war, pretty much from the first day.  What was surprising was just how broad and impactful these new systems were, no one really expected this.
So there it is.  I will let the reader decide on these issues for themselves.  Both sides can be presented without us trying to tear the other down. That is a BS Reddit trap that I already fell for once but frankly it just stifles discussion and gets really tedious.

And now, a quick humor break.
Huge thanks to all for the discourse, even when a tad heated it provides fantastic reading and great content.

Regarding the scale of the current Kursk offensive, IMHO more and more signs show this is a limited scale operation.
So far Ukraine’s offensive relies on one main road H07 and one secondary road pass through Snagost. With Sumy function as the logistic center, one highway can support 3 full brigades for a limit time, then got to R&R or rotate.

You have zero proof regarding most of your claims. I am constantly putting quotes from front lines. 
 
Kursk grouping is vastly different than in last summer offensive. That grouping was remnant of Cold War. This one is modern one.
 
You are not supported by anything factual sources. You throw at me bunch of claims that failed to materialize at the battlefield. You was proven completely wrong when claimed that it is impossible to mass even company without magic eye see it (UKR massed far more than company and achieved complete surprise).
Ypu claimed that you cannot mass anything without wonder OTH. Yet for a week of fighting we have 1 confirmed OTH strike at RU columns and we have RU columns arriving for a week. 
Let me requote for you RU Nat (who unlike you is there) describing that classical column movement is still pretty much possible. 
 
 
Let me simply quote him again:
Capt, you do not have anything factual. You have claims of experts who unlike me were grossly mistaken about RU army before war. And who have no idea what is really going on the front lines now. Because all info that is coming directly from front lines grossly contradict your claims. 
 
What do you know about RU airborne and space based ISR? Keep in mind that they just missed concentration of few brigades. 
Never mind you outright ignored two my recent quoted from Mashovets and Serhi Flash that confirmed my previous RU Nat quote that RU Iskanders strikes rely mostly on long range drones (and not on airborne or space ISR). They are litteraly blind without these drones.
 
Capt, stop BS people. Long range ISR wasn't weakest there. I would say it was one of the strongest becasue it was shortest path to UKR rear areas.
 
And that exactly what I told you when you claimed that magic eye can detect everything - I told you brains behind eye can be confused. And you just backpedaled from your magic all seeing eyes position to my brains can be confused position all while declaring that I am wrong and you are right. 
 
Capt, less than year ago RU battalion attack using similar methods (but on foot) collapsed Avdiivka defense in days. Pokrovkse direction is the direction where these RU guys are operating. And this is the only RU direction where RU have success. 
Let's that sink it - Pokrosvke direction (where best RU EW guys are operating) is the only direction where RU have success.
But I know what you will claim:
It is an accident RU Nat do not know anything Your experts who have no clue what is going on say otherwise We need to stop talking, Capt. While I am constantly bringing fresh description (that always contradict your claims) from the front lines you just recycle your old claims that it cannot be becasue you ignorant pre-war experts said otherwise.

I will follow up on the ISW piece with an example:

This is on page 49 on "Penetrating an Enemy Tactical Recon Strike Complex".  At first blush this makes perfect sense - establish a big EW bubble, drop enemy tac ISR from the sky, suppress in depth and breach/exploit. But here is the problem:
- This cannot solve for standoff enemy ISR. Even RA drones have hi resolution LOS of 10-15kms so that is one large EW bubble to begin with.  Higher altitude larger drones and manned AC can stand off tens, even hundreds of kms and provide high resolution ISR (RA less so but not zero).
- Stand off ISR means effective and precise enemy strike.  In the diagram above they have essentially written that off with that lone box that says "Blue suppress Red's TRSC components in the rear."  Given that the "rear" for a HIMARs or Glide Bomb system can be up to several hundred kms that is one helluva rear area suppression requirement for a tactical breach. 
- Standoff ISR and even tactical ISR pre-breach can see 10s of km behind our own lines.  So that nice neat blue force build up in that pic can take hours to marshal, stage and get across the start line.  Once moving it is also a big signature.  So that means the enemy has time to reposition.  Here deception, decoys and whatever we can do to blind and spoof become central.  For example, EW does nothing for manned ATGM teams capable of precision strikes at 3-5kms via LOS.  Those teams need to be queued by all that ISR, once they are all the EW in the world will not protect that breach attempt.
- This is not about EW superiority, it is about fires superiority.  That system above will work if the Blue side has a complex that can basically spot and eliminate anything that even whiffs Red Team going back kms.
- None of this solves for good old fashion stuff like HUMINT.  People with cellphones can blow this entire operation.
- Finally, let's say you breach the mine belt and achieve breakthrough...now what?  As you advance the enemy is going to reestablish the TRSC on your own LOC as you advance.  Or you need to have a secure LOC corridor 10s of kms wide...that is not sustainable.
So while this will (debatably) offer a tactical manoeuvre option, it does not solve the operational problem.  Evidence of this is happening in Kursk right now.  The UA does not appear interested in deep thunder runs.  Likely because the risk is too high for being eventually cut off.
As I read deeper into this report I can say that it is one of the best articulations of the problem we have seen.  The solutions, however, do not entirely follow through to my mind.  And as we see fully autonomous systems on the horizon, pinning this whole thing on EW is dangerous.

I am just going through it and also have a couple issues.  While it advocates closer ISR and deep fires integration, they miss the point that we have shifted from a “manoeuvre to fire” to a “fire to manoeuvre” reality.  They clearly describe the Tactical Recon Complex, which is absolutely true but miss the larger C4 ISR architectures those tactical complexes plug into.  Again, the risk is seeing this war solely through a social media lens - we see a bunch of small drones doing stuff enough times and that becomes the whole picture.  This is micro-masking which is the inverse of what we saw at the beginning of this war which was macro-masking.
But that all said, it is an excellent piece and everyone should give it a look.

Yes, we have confirmed sighting of UKR BTR in Giri village (51.091309, 35.573897). I believe this is part of UKR counter attack in to the flank of RU attack from Oboyan direction through Belitsa (51.123283, 35.551209) settlement (big village). We had credible claims that UKR first captured Plyokhovo, then claims that UKR were attacking toward Belya and Belitsa and now we see them in Giri.
My interpretation of Tea Leaves (aka Yandex Maps traffic) RU already retreated east and abandoned Belitsa.
Along the northern route (there is cross road in Belitsa) RU seems retreated to Sverdlovky settlement (51.147941, 35.658349) and along the southern route RU retreated to Belya settlement (51.055166, 35.708708).
Looks like indeed UKR's intent is to widen rather than deepen its foothold.
 
[EDIT] BTW my Tea Leaves hints that RU abandoned Kromskiye Byki and retreated closer to Lgov  - to Vasilyevka settlement (51.596652, 35.252377). Let's wait if it would be confirmed as well. 
 

Something lighter:
 

 

Yes it has been a more hopeful and positive week on both continents 
 

Darth knocking it out of the park again

Russia's economy will face sharp decline after second quarter of 2024, Bloomberg reports (msn.com)
Russia is on track for an intense economic slowdown due to significant labor shortages and constraints placed on the key sectors that backed growth until now, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 9.
Labor resources are practically drained while the competition between the military and business for recruits becomes more fierce, the outlet writes.
This is likely to limit the further growth of defense-related industries. The banking and construction sectors are no longer protected from the impacts of high interest rates as the government shuts down the state-subsidized mortgage programs.
Despite Russia's GDP growing by 4% in the first quarter of the year, it will likely slow down to 2% in the last half of the year and hit 0.5% - 1.5% in 2025, says Alex Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics.
The government's massive increase in spending to finance the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused Russia's economy to overheat to a level it has not seen since before the 2008 global financial crisis, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in her comment to Bloomberg.
"Reserves of labor and production capacity are almost exhausted," Nabiullina said.
As a result of the full-scale invasion, Russia's spending on national defense rose from 3.6 trillion rubles ($51 billion) in 2021 to 6.4 trillion rubles ($75 billion) in 2023 and is expected to rise to 10.8 trillion rubles ($120 billion), or 29.4% of the budget, in 2024.
In February 2024, U.S. intelligence estimated that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has spent up to $211 billion on military operations in Ukraine. The war has cost Russia up to $1.3 trillion in lost economic growth through 2026, an undisclosed source in U.S. intelligence in a comment to Reuters.
 

When it rains it pours I guess...

The best word is chevauchée. A raid to compel, discomfit.

Honestly I think this is the culmination of Russian arrogance when it came to their border policy with Ukraine after the invasion. They have been able to concentrate the vast majority of their forces in Ukraine, thinking that the Ukrainians would either never attack Russia or be allowed to. This has allowed them to focus on attacking in Ukraine while pretty much leaving the border defended at a minimum. 

This has until now worked really well for the Russians, because the Ukrainians cannot adopt the same policy at least to the same extent due to the potential threat of attacks aimed at Kyiv or other critical areas. 

Then for whatever reason the Russians decided to ruin all of that and make a run for Kharkiv again, allowing a loosening of restrictions on the border as a red line. The raids prior seemed to confirm to the Russians that attacks by Ukraine in return would be fleeting and so they continued to be disgustingly arrogant about the needs to defend their own borders. Now we have a far more extensive operation that has utterly discombobulated the Russians and they seem entirely unsure of what the hell is going on. Its becoming clear they never expected this and their top down system is struggling to respond.  The fact they were throwing Iskanders onto MRAPs tells me they are actually desperate here. 

Propaganda wise its a massive win, and so far it seems the Ukrainians are performing an excellent operation with regards to opsec. The aim might be unclear to us but I would not be surprised if this is meant to finally force the Russians to deploy proper units in strength across the border to prevent this happening in the future...and weaken their forces in Ukraine in consequence. They simply -cannot- allow Ukrainians to remain on their own land, which I expect the Ukrainians are well aware of. Of course the Russians could continue to respond this poorly, in which case domestically the Russian position becomes hilariously embarrassing.

The Russian population has been told for years now how the Ukrainians have nothing left, that victory was on the verge as the AFU would collapse soon. Now Russia has lost potentially near 300 square KM of territory within days and according to Russian sources units in the area are receiving what could best be described as an utter drubbing. This is not going to go down well in internal Russian circles. 

Overall this has been an excellent display of the potency of mobile operations when properly conducted (so far) as well as the operational energy of well equipped and motivated Ukrainians. I certainly hope they continue to perform in this way. Especially with regards of not telling anyone when they do it. The difference between this and the summer counter offensive is night and day. 

no way, they told this guy the real plan to post knowing the russians will think it is the fake plan, but the russians know the UA will know that they know so they obviously can't be giving the real plan!
 
 

Gentleman, you can't fight in here, this is the war room!

And I posted fact that layered ISR and handing off satellite imagery 32 times a day completely failed to detect RU tank regiment operating DF at Avdiivka and taking almost no losses from anything but tactical drones. As well as numerous cases where RU litteraly used armored columns directly on front lines suffering losses mostly from tactical weapons (no wonder OTH strikes at large formations).  
 
I have give you literal quote from RU officer. You gave nothing but your own fantasy based on quotes of guys who previously thought RU army is competent force. 
 
I literally just gave you statement from Major General Ivan Popov, back in 23 commander of 58th Army of the Southern District, who complained to Shoigu not about magic eyes, not about wonder OTH strikes on logistics, not about wonder strikes at his large formation. No, he called the main tragedy of the war - UKR artillery that was killing boys on frontlines. 
Nobody on RU side (including top RU generals) talks much about the eyes, OTH strikes and alike. Sometimes they mention eyes or fuel shortages. But that's it. 
 
Yes, we have. You have not seen the extend it affects RU. I have. Effect is good but vastly exaggerated. They mitigated it to the extend by switching to large amount of smaller dispersed civilians cars. Literally. They fuel tanks with small pickups masked as some unimportant logistical vehicle. 
 
RU quietly thanked UKR for that - they do not need to spend money trying to repair crappy submarine. 
 
I am not denying that strikes are happening. What I deny is your fantasy about their overall effect. It is good but not at great as you claim and they did not cause the shift in warfare we see.
 
For me is what RU Nats from privates to Generals says. Non of them ever complained much about warfare defining effects that you claim are everywhere. 
I repeat - nobody on RU side (including generals) complains much about magic eyes, wonder OTH strikes on logistics or wonder strikes at large formation (they do complain about eyes and logistics strikes a little).
They all state very clearly that drone adjusted artillery and FPV drones is what changed warfare. 
The problem is very much with you.

There is a power button on EW devices. Unless it switched on EW device is "invisible" until right moment
 
You continently "forgot" about mines, artillery and aviation. 
UKR somehow neutralized mines, blinded RU artillery by jamming drones, hit aviation with interceptor drones and SAMs. 

RU rumors that UKR passed 25 km mark
 

And screw up their planning. This will make Russia move a lot of things they were not planning on moving, to a place they were not planning to move it to. There is already video of Russian tanks burning without ever getting off the semitrailer. That is the kind of thing that happens when you catch the bad guys with their pants down and they start doing things in a panic.