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chrisl

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  1. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We're at the very, very beginning.  As far as I've seen so far, both sides are doing all this with a very conventional sensor set (Vis/IR cameras and GPS, mostly) and and haven't really ventured into RF or chemotaxis.  And we've seen only tiny bits of autonomy where it looks like it's "last 100 meters" kind of autonomy, more than "deny this volume indefinitely".  There have been a few US/European demos of RF-chasing drones.  Once those sensors and autonomy get more widely distributed it's going to be massive swarms of drones against drones.  
     
  2. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Offshoot in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Vodka is just ethanol plus water, so yes
  3. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Within reason there are only two players in this fight who are actually implementing battlefield developments.
    Even Western weapons are only provided as-is, with the ZSU doing the additional original work in implementation.
    WRT Drones Russia is really only a copycat of UKR cutting edge TTP. 
  4. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the lead tank was basically screaming "shoot me first! shoot me first!" on every frequency.  Anything using its radio for target homing instead of communication will make a beeline toward it.  So if it wasn't an optical/AI drone, it could have been an anti-radiation drone.
  5. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the lead tank was basically screaming "shoot me first! shoot me first!" on every frequency.  Anything using its radio for target homing instead of communication will make a beeline toward it.  So if it wasn't an optical/AI drone, it could have been an anti-radiation drone.
  6. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the lead tank was basically screaming "shoot me first! shoot me first!" on every frequency.  Anything using its radio for target homing instead of communication will make a beeline toward it.  So if it wasn't an optical/AI drone, it could have been an anti-radiation drone.
  7. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I guess this is the AI part: an optical system that can track the tank with a camera. Probably the operator needs to point out the target once and then it is autonomous. No amount of EW can defeat that (unless you can fry the drone with microwaves).
  8. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yep this at the end is the pay off....  Not.
    He offers no idea on how Ukraine should have done it differently.
    Ukraine was desperately trying to stop Russia and all energy and thought spent on that.
    If they had the means to encircle the Russians they would have.
    They did well to stop the Russians.
    To think Ukraine squandered a chance to end the war is utter BS...
    He offers no evidence on how they should have done it. Magic...
     
  9. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have no idea what point that guy is trying to make.
  10. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This sounds more like the pre GPS cruise missile guidance systems than true AI. Although there could be another layer to the software obviously. Either way it is fantastic they can't be diverted by GPS jamming.
  11. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's the thing about diseases and medicine in general.
    Doctors are usually pretty good about telling whether you're alive or dead.  Usually.  In between is an extremely sliding scale, and if you can feed yourself and make to the bathroom on your own most of the time a lot of doctors will say you're fine.  Even if you won the a Nobel prize the previous week.  
    And the problem with biological damage in general is that we have terrible resolution on a lot of things, and things at very tiny scales can matter a lot in how your body functions.  Other tiny things (like a virus) can do microscopic damage and then be cleared from your system so they're undetectable.  But you're still messed up because maybe a whole bunch of capillaries aren't acting the way they're supposed to.  Or your clotting system is doing weird intermittent things in your organs. Or some intermediate chemical process that people have mostly ignored, except for maybe one poorly paid graduate student, is completely broken and we won't learn that it matters for another decade.  But there's nothing chemically or macroscopically detectable (at least not without slicing you into thin sections, which would probably annoy you) because your body cleared out the actual virus a long time ago.  To get a sense of how tiny things can be and matter: at peak covid there was probably about 10 (or maybe a few tens) total kilograms of virus on the entire planet.  Biology is complicated stuff.
  12. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's the thing about diseases and medicine in general.
    Doctors are usually pretty good about telling whether you're alive or dead.  Usually.  In between is an extremely sliding scale, and if you can feed yourself and make to the bathroom on your own most of the time a lot of doctors will say you're fine.  Even if you won the a Nobel prize the previous week.  
    And the problem with biological damage in general is that we have terrible resolution on a lot of things, and things at very tiny scales can matter a lot in how your body functions.  Other tiny things (like a virus) can do microscopic damage and then be cleared from your system so they're undetectable.  But you're still messed up because maybe a whole bunch of capillaries aren't acting the way they're supposed to.  Or your clotting system is doing weird intermittent things in your organs. Or some intermediate chemical process that people have mostly ignored, except for maybe one poorly paid graduate student, is completely broken and we won't learn that it matters for another decade.  But there's nothing chemically or macroscopically detectable (at least not without slicing you into thin sections, which would probably annoy you) because your body cleared out the actual virus a long time ago.  To get a sense of how tiny things can be and matter: at peak covid there was probably about 10 (or maybe a few tens) total kilograms of virus on the entire planet.  Biology is complicated stuff.
  13. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Shahed plant go boom. 1000km from front. 
     
  14. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The thing is all falsehood goes through the first two stages, as well.  Unfortunately some even makes it to the third, even if only to a minority of people…
    Come to think of it, the reason we value the scientific method and rational argument is because it forcibly applies the first two stages to information and so we hope that only truth makes it to the third.
    Perhaps Schopenhauer should have added the word “thankfully” in there, somewhere.
  15. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    MS is still basically a cipher.  Unbelievably mysterious and bizarrely correlated to the latitude where you grew up.
    Biology is insanely complicated. I spend a lot of time among physical scientists who fancy themselves to be doing biology research (a description that fits me a lot of the time, too).  Many of them don't have any hands on bio experimental experience and you end up with people who think that easy (and solved) things are impossible, and that things that are currently well beyond our knowledge and available data are trivial.  And that's in research labs where you can isolate questions reasonably well.  Doctors are basically working with horribly complicated systems that are hard to understand and have huge variations when functioning normally, and can break in a unbelievable number of obscure ways.
  16. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Getting good RF in buildings can be a pain.  It's why I still have a desk phone at work - I'm in the middle of a building and my cell reception sucks there (though VOIP mostly mitigates that now, so I could probably let it go).  Cell reception sucks in my house that isn't even all that large and is all wood, but is surrounded by hills and trees and things.  And that's with trying to get reception.  Effective drones much beyond the entryway of buildings is still DARPA Grand Challenge territory.  They'll get there, and probably sooner than we think, but that's where you really need to have a lot of autonomy.  Even if you have decent reception in the building sometimes, it can easily disappear in good sized regions and you need the drone to be able to take care of itself without comms and not be taken out by a bunch of curious cats.
  17. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's the thing about diseases and medicine in general.
    Doctors are usually pretty good about telling whether you're alive or dead.  Usually.  In between is an extremely sliding scale, and if you can feed yourself and make to the bathroom on your own most of the time a lot of doctors will say you're fine.  Even if you won the a Nobel prize the previous week.  
    And the problem with biological damage in general is that we have terrible resolution on a lot of things, and things at very tiny scales can matter a lot in how your body functions.  Other tiny things (like a virus) can do microscopic damage and then be cleared from your system so they're undetectable.  But you're still messed up because maybe a whole bunch of capillaries aren't acting the way they're supposed to.  Or your clotting system is doing weird intermittent things in your organs. Or some intermediate chemical process that people have mostly ignored, except for maybe one poorly paid graduate student, is completely broken and we won't learn that it matters for another decade.  But there's nothing chemically or macroscopically detectable (at least not without slicing you into thin sections, which would probably annoy you) because your body cleared out the actual virus a long time ago.  To get a sense of how tiny things can be and matter: at peak covid there was probably about 10 (or maybe a few tens) total kilograms of virus on the entire planet.  Biology is complicated stuff.
  18. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    MS is still basically a cipher.  Unbelievably mysterious and bizarrely correlated to the latitude where you grew up.
    Biology is insanely complicated. I spend a lot of time among physical scientists who fancy themselves to be doing biology research (a description that fits me a lot of the time, too).  Many of them don't have any hands on bio experimental experience and you end up with people who think that easy (and solved) things are impossible, and that things that are currently well beyond our knowledge and available data are trivial.  And that's in research labs where you can isolate questions reasonably well.  Doctors are basically working with horribly complicated systems that are hard to understand and have huge variations when functioning normally, and can break in a unbelievable number of obscure ways.
  19. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's the thing about diseases and medicine in general.
    Doctors are usually pretty good about telling whether you're alive or dead.  Usually.  In between is an extremely sliding scale, and if you can feed yourself and make to the bathroom on your own most of the time a lot of doctors will say you're fine.  Even if you won the a Nobel prize the previous week.  
    And the problem with biological damage in general is that we have terrible resolution on a lot of things, and things at very tiny scales can matter a lot in how your body functions.  Other tiny things (like a virus) can do microscopic damage and then be cleared from your system so they're undetectable.  But you're still messed up because maybe a whole bunch of capillaries aren't acting the way they're supposed to.  Or your clotting system is doing weird intermittent things in your organs. Or some intermediate chemical process that people have mostly ignored, except for maybe one poorly paid graduate student, is completely broken and we won't learn that it matters for another decade.  But there's nothing chemically or macroscopically detectable (at least not without slicing you into thin sections, which would probably annoy you) because your body cleared out the actual virus a long time ago.  To get a sense of how tiny things can be and matter: at peak covid there was probably about 10 (or maybe a few tens) total kilograms of virus on the entire planet.  Biology is complicated stuff.
  20. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    MS is still basically a cipher.  Unbelievably mysterious and bizarrely correlated to the latitude where you grew up.
    Biology is insanely complicated. I spend a lot of time among physical scientists who fancy themselves to be doing biology research (a description that fits me a lot of the time, too).  Many of them don't have any hands on bio experimental experience and you end up with people who think that easy (and solved) things are impossible, and that things that are currently well beyond our knowledge and available data are trivial.  And that's in research labs where you can isolate questions reasonably well.  Doctors are basically working with horribly complicated systems that are hard to understand and have huge variations when functioning normally, and can break in a unbelievable number of obscure ways.
  21. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Getting good RF in buildings can be a pain.  It's why I still have a desk phone at work - I'm in the middle of a building and my cell reception sucks there (though VOIP mostly mitigates that now, so I could probably let it go).  Cell reception sucks in my house that isn't even all that large and is all wood, but is surrounded by hills and trees and things.  And that's with trying to get reception.  Effective drones much beyond the entryway of buildings is still DARPA Grand Challenge territory.  They'll get there, and probably sooner than we think, but that's where you really need to have a lot of autonomy.  Even if you have decent reception in the building sometimes, it can easily disappear in good sized regions and you need the drone to be able to take care of itself without comms and not be taken out by a bunch of curious cats.
  22. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    MS is still basically a cipher.  Unbelievably mysterious and bizarrely correlated to the latitude where you grew up.
    Biology is insanely complicated. I spend a lot of time among physical scientists who fancy themselves to be doing biology research (a description that fits me a lot of the time, too).  Many of them don't have any hands on bio experimental experience and you end up with people who think that easy (and solved) things are impossible, and that things that are currently well beyond our knowledge and available data are trivial.  And that's in research labs where you can isolate questions reasonably well.  Doctors are basically working with horribly complicated systems that are hard to understand and have huge variations when functioning normally, and can break in a unbelievable number of obscure ways.
  23. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's the thing about diseases and medicine in general.
    Doctors are usually pretty good about telling whether you're alive or dead.  Usually.  In between is an extremely sliding scale, and if you can feed yourself and make to the bathroom on your own most of the time a lot of doctors will say you're fine.  Even if you won the a Nobel prize the previous week.  
    And the problem with biological damage in general is that we have terrible resolution on a lot of things, and things at very tiny scales can matter a lot in how your body functions.  Other tiny things (like a virus) can do microscopic damage and then be cleared from your system so they're undetectable.  But you're still messed up because maybe a whole bunch of capillaries aren't acting the way they're supposed to.  Or your clotting system is doing weird intermittent things in your organs. Or some intermediate chemical process that people have mostly ignored, except for maybe one poorly paid graduate student, is completely broken and we won't learn that it matters for another decade.  But there's nothing chemically or macroscopically detectable (at least not without slicing you into thin sections, which would probably annoy you) because your body cleared out the actual virus a long time ago.  To get a sense of how tiny things can be and matter: at peak covid there was probably about 10 (or maybe a few tens) total kilograms of virus on the entire planet.  Biology is complicated stuff.
  24. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to ASL Veteran in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think it might be time for some drone footage straight from the front lines:
     
  25. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    People, people, please.
    It is perfectly reasonable important to ask ourselves sometimes: how do we know the world is actually a spheroid?
    We all assume it is, but have you experienced it yourself? Humans are wrong with their assumptions about the world more often than they are right, did you consider this?
    Now, you might have a thread full of possible hints towards a spheroid planet, and you have discussed it amongst yourself, to the best of your ability determining it does a lot look like it might be spheroid - with some people hoping that it turns out spheroid and others open that it isn't qhen things go wrong. But what if all of you are just subject to a well-known phenomenon of mass hallucinations, which especially affects those of low IQ, such like the people who are not myself?
    And it gets worse when people are in a group for anlong time. They tell to each other that the world must be round, but what do they use? Physics? Optics? Geometry?
    Do you know how many times these fields have been re-written again and again? By people in authority no less, who are well-known to be conspiratorial liars whenever you don't watch their fingers closely.
    You might now wonder where my questions are going, but really, where would all you people end up if not someone like me, with one year of high-school philosophy under my belt, didn't engage you with aimless sophistry?
    This is my last and only post. Have a good night everyone.
    (You expected me to wish you a good day? Expectations subverted again sheeple! I will now leave to look at Hunter Biden's leaked nudes.)
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