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chrisl

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  1. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Large wool socks can do double duty as caps in the winter.
  2. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, I heat my home (as do many). Hot air gas heat. Cheaper than oil or electric here.

    Dave
  3. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Apparently they are geofencing so the Russians can't use it, and the Ukrainians have had issues getting the "fence" adjusted as they advance. It would have been a purely technical problem with an entirely doable solution, but because Musk has been running his mouth and sounding like a tankie there is a massive case of mistrust.
  4. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh I thought it was me. I am fairly conversational in German but at times I must at least switch on the German Subtitles. Thank you, I can sleep more easily tonight. 
  5. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Especially if the winter follows a mud season where the UA can prevent RU from supplying by rail. Trains are relatively immune to rain and mud unless there’s a slide onto or out from under the tracks.  So if Ukraine can keep taking rail hubs like Lyman and also keep hitting rail routes, they can make supply much harder for RU.  Russian truck based supply still seems really deficient, and if they have to drive through mud it will get much worse.
  6. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In some places that means your socks will be wet 8 months out of the year.
  7. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh I get the purpose but nope nopity nope no. 
    Until the first shell lands near this armchair warrior,  I'm sure... 
  8. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, well, they were anti-Iraq war because it was built on lies.  Cheney et al conflated 9-11 w saddam hussein and then told KNOWN lies about WMD.  So they were right, as much as I wanted Saddam dead like most folks.  I was ~70-80% against the Iraq invasion; it was built on lies and exploited american anger and grief to try to realize neo-con wet dream fantasies.  (sounds crazy but I kinda feel bad for Bush -- he was a trusting guy who trusted rotten bastards, and he realized that by ~2006 by which time he wouldn't give cheney the time of day.  T think Bush would've been happier to just live his trust fund baby life w occasional nice cushy jobs watching baseball and other sports -- actually this sounds kinda good to me right now 🙂)
    I supported US going into Afghanistan, though I thought we should have gotten out earlier -- TheCapt & CombatInfMan might correct my thinking on this.
    There is no contradiction between opposing a wrong war and supporting a right one.  Markos (head of Kos) is a veteran and his army son just entered ranger school.  Contrary to popular belief, not all military folks are MAGA.
    And yes, I always put the disclaimer, because I think that is a courteous thing to do and helps to not distract the forum.  
    So let's get back on track!
  9. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which is kind of silly because if it's monochromatic all you have to do is ignore that wavelength or band that includes that wavelength.
    If they're pointed statically and shining up, they're entirely for show and not doing anything besides send a message that says "blow me up next"
    This seems to be the most likely answer:
    It's entirely plausible that the system never actually worked.  They may have built something that lased with a high output, and they may even have done a demo where they set something on fire at some moderate distance.  But there are some relevant technologies that I suspect RU doesn't do very well, if at all, that are necessary to keep the both keep from toasting your own optics and get the beam through the atmosphere without scattering all the energy away.
  10. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Man, I love the backflip symmetrical beauty of UKR with ****ty T64s beating RUS forces and capturing T80/90s, then using those more modern MBTs against the replacement RUS tanks that are... T62s. 
    Perfect. 
  11. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which is kind of silly because if it's monochromatic all you have to do is ignore that wavelength or band that includes that wavelength.
    If they're pointed statically and shining up, they're entirely for show and not doing anything besides send a message that says "blow me up next"
    This seems to be the most likely answer:
    It's entirely plausible that the system never actually worked.  They may have built something that lased with a high output, and they may even have done a demo where they set something on fire at some moderate distance.  But there are some relevant technologies that I suspect RU doesn't do very well, if at all, that are necessary to keep the both keep from toasting your own optics and get the beam through the atmosphere without scattering all the energy away.
  12. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which is kind of silly because if it's monochromatic all you have to do is ignore that wavelength or band that includes that wavelength.
    If they're pointed statically and shining up, they're entirely for show and not doing anything besides send a message that says "blow me up next"
    This seems to be the most likely answer:
    It's entirely plausible that the system never actually worked.  They may have built something that lased with a high output, and they may even have done a demo where they set something on fire at some moderate distance.  But there are some relevant technologies that I suspect RU doesn't do very well, if at all, that are necessary to keep the both keep from toasting your own optics and get the beam through the atmosphere without scattering all the energy away.
  13. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from Hapless in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which is kind of silly because if it's monochromatic all you have to do is ignore that wavelength or band that includes that wavelength.
    If they're pointed statically and shining up, they're entirely for show and not doing anything besides send a message that says "blow me up next"
    This seems to be the most likely answer:
    It's entirely plausible that the system never actually worked.  They may have built something that lased with a high output, and they may even have done a demo where they set something on fire at some moderate distance.  But there are some relevant technologies that I suspect RU doesn't do very well, if at all, that are necessary to keep the both keep from toasting your own optics and get the beam through the atmosphere without scattering all the energy away.
  14. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine has launched a state program to help unwilling Russians to surrender safely.
  15. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What for? Russia supplies us with much more armored vehicles than we could produce in the same time
  16. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One of the facts of modern war that Ukraine has reinforced is the difficulty of holding truly hostile territory where you can only patrol in platoon size units. This one of the things that sunk the U.S. in Afghanistan as well. If every look out post and dirt crossroads requires a platoon to sized unit there are not enough troops on earth to hold down a significant area. The AFU can cheerfully operate its recon forces in two jeep sections, and they can get a hot meal at any farmstead the Russians haven't destroyed. The difference in the two armies situation in the recon fight is hard to overstate.
    Consultations are are going to be ongoing for a few weeks. I expect something TRULY bizarre on the propaganda front here.
  17. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's a way for all the educated men, and maybe some women, to get a free trip to somewhere they can find a better job.  There's certainly some risk involved - you could get shelled on your way to the collection point, or lose your white flag and have trouble surrendering, but it's arguably not that different risk-wise from what a lot of other migrants go through.  Anybody who goes from skilled job to POW inside of a week is probably not intending to go back to Russia, at least not until there's regime change in a direction that won't punish POWs.
    And at this point what can the Russian military do?  The right thing is complete withdrawal - their army is getting weaker and less organized while Ukraine's gets better trained and equipped every day. Probably no amount of operational pause will let Russia catch up at this point - they arguably lost the war in the operational pause from 2014 to 2022.  Both armies were in constant contact with their current opponent.  Ukraine used the time to cycle everybody who spent time in the army through the front for at least a short period, so that at the start all their reserves had at least been in a combat zone before.  And they got training and equipment from the west and developed international relationships that looked away from the former USSR.  Russia had exactly the same opportunity to improve training and equipment against an opponent they had already attacked and planned to pursue, but apparently chose corrupt business as usual, if not worse.  So even if they know it's hopeless, all anybody at the middle and above can do is follow orders and stay away from windows until something happens to Vlad.  All anybody at the bottom can do is hope they can get across a border before they're drafted, or get their hands into the air and surrender before they get shot or blown up.
  18. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Elmar Bijlsma in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Is it even militarily wise to roll up Cherson pocket right now? I mean, it is complete arse for the Russians to supply. It seems worth it to let the Russians "enjoy" their self inflicted wound some more. Squeeze it to a more manageable area to give arty more options but otherwise I would leave it in place.
    I still fancy Melitopol as an axis of advance worth trying. Perhaps too obvious a route and too strongly held, but surely the past few weeks the area has been thinned of defenders some? Perhaps it is too late now, with the autumn mud upon us.
    TBH, I was a little surprised by the Lyman operation. I didn't think it would improve the strategic outlook all that much. Initially, it definitely was, with the local defences in disarray. But the initial progress seemed slow and grinding that I really doubted it was going to go anywhere worthwhile.
    But second guessing the Ukrainian General Staff really isn't the smart thing to do, I realize.
     
  19. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Misplaced from the stock that never existed, fulfilled by the shell company with no employees (but 17 directors), parking lot for a factory and an empty head office, after it won a competition against six  identical other companies (who all share the same address) and judged by the brother of one of the Directors who is a clerk at the MoD. 
     
  20. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What a day! You could easily get dizzy from just trying to keep up with the developments. Let's see what happens in next few days, but if it's all confirmed we could easily be looking at start of general RU collapse - here, I said it, somebody had to!
  21. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The 3rd so called Army Corps seems to have been a stealth lend lease program for Ukraine.
    Edit: It was nice of them to send most of the new stuff with manuals.
  22. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    dude I was already down from that video then you decide I'm not down enough?  So sorry to hear of your loss.
  23. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I honestly think the Ukrainian's analysis is that having the best -ten percent of the Russian army pinned downed there bleeding while the Ukrainians put half to three quarters of their supplies at the bottom of the river is a winning situation. They are just stringing them along. Maybe they are waiting for something nice from lend lease to crush it properly? A hundred Abrams comes to mind...
  24. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    He also enumerated all these territories, including Crimea. 
    Joke time:
    It looks like soon both Ukraine and Russia will be fighting with US lend-lease weapons
  25. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    yeah, why not just put up a post on tiktok saying "I am a war criminal.  If I am ever seen outside Russia, please arrest me."
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