chrisl

It's the nature of Science Fiction/Fantasy, which gaming is kind of on the edge of.  While you're spending your days trying to figure out how to simulate the fog of war that real armies experience, the guys who have to live the reality are looking at your game and saying "Dude, how do we make the real battlefield like *that*?".  And the time scale is about right.  CM:BO came out 20 years ago and there's been a whole generation of people playing CM and its ilk and having it influence what they wanted to develop in reality.

Concentration of mass will have to happen more like flash mobs on targets than traditional massing and then moving together.  Bunches of uncrewed vehicles will converge from multiple directions to coordinate attacks on focus points and then disperse just as rapidly.
It will depend on extremely good communication and coordination, with a lot of switching between mission command and detailed command on the fly - something like CM with borg spotting, but with hopefully better AI from units that have broken comms, and keeping your units staying farther apart until they converge.

Concentration of mass will have to happen more like flash mobs on targets than traditional massing and then moving together.  Bunches of uncrewed vehicles will converge from multiple directions to coordinate attacks on focus points and then disperse just as rapidly.
It will depend on extremely good communication and coordination, with a lot of switching between mission command and detailed command on the fly - something like CM with borg spotting, but with hopefully better AI from units that have broken comms, and keeping your units staying farther apart until they converge.

Sensors will continue to win for those who have the money to develop fancy sensors.  The production cost of fancy sensor systems is generally nowhere near the development cost, and the better/faster your computers the fancier sensing you can do with sometimes rather bad sensors.  So the sensing benefit is always going to go to the side with the advanced microfab capability.
Real AI is a thing, and it can do real detection and tracking, but it's also not trivially available to everybody, either.  I've had people working on low SNR detection and tracking for very different applications (all imaging problems are the same once you get them onto the sensor array) and even with getting people from the black world the detection and tracking can be inconsistent.

It's a surprisingly good article for a non-technical audience.
Multispectral sensing that gets integrated and fed to reasonably well trained computers is going to be hard to beat.  
It's tougher on the ground than in the sky in many ways - if you're in the sky and you can eliminate any radar return you just look like the rest of the sky.  But if you're on the ground and eliminate radar (or lidar, or simply optical) return you look like a big hole in the environment and are obviously something interesting.  You can camouflage yourself in one band, but it's likely that at the same time you make yourself stick out like a sore thumb in another band.
Similar with emissions - if you're functioning you're using energy and emitting waste heat. It's not enough to have something that simply reflects your own thermal emissions - that heat has to go somewhere.  It's either heating you up or something outside you (like your camouflage on one side while it keeps the other side cool, or it's slowly conducting itself to the surface of your camo.  You also have to match your external environment across the spectrum so you don't stick out like a sore thumb or a black hole.  That's why battery, or at least hybrid power is going to become more valuable - if you can turn off the heat generating internal combustion engine when you're not actively moving, you produce a lot smaller heat signature. 

Sensors will continue to win for those who have the money to develop fancy sensors.  The production cost of fancy sensor systems is generally nowhere near the development cost, and the better/faster your computers the fancier sensing you can do with sometimes rather bad sensors.  So the sensing benefit is always going to go to the side with the advanced microfab capability.
Real AI is a thing, and it can do real detection and tracking, but it's also not trivially available to everybody, either.  I've had people working on low SNR detection and tracking for very different applications (all imaging problems are the same once you get them onto the sensor array) and even with getting people from the black world the detection and tracking can be inconsistent.

It's a surprisingly good article for a non-technical audience.
Multispectral sensing that gets integrated and fed to reasonably well trained computers is going to be hard to beat.  
It's tougher on the ground than in the sky in many ways - if you're in the sky and you can eliminate any radar return you just look like the rest of the sky.  But if you're on the ground and eliminate radar (or lidar, or simply optical) return you look like a big hole in the environment and are obviously something interesting.  You can camouflage yourself in one band, but it's likely that at the same time you make yourself stick out like a sore thumb in another band.
Similar with emissions - if you're functioning you're using energy and emitting waste heat. It's not enough to have something that simply reflects your own thermal emissions - that heat has to go somewhere.  It's either heating you up or something outside you (like your camouflage on one side while it keeps the other side cool, or it's slowly conducting itself to the surface of your camo.  You also have to match your external environment across the spectrum so you don't stick out like a sore thumb or a black hole.  That's why battery, or at least hybrid power is going to become more valuable - if you can turn off the heat generating internal combustion engine when you're not actively moving, you produce a lot smaller heat signature. 

My own preference at the moment is to build around the proportional representation democratic model we are familiar with in Europe.  Decisions tend to get taken reflecting a broad range of views and after thorough debate, rather than reflecting partisan ideologies.
 

I just saw in the news that Zelenskyy has invited Xi to visit Ukraine. I think this is a very clever move. It'll be hard for Xi to turn down the invitation while still trying to maintain China's self-appointed image as "arbiter of peace". However, I find it unlikely that Xi accepts. If China did though, Russia will scream like a stuck pig when Ukraine takes advantage of the opportunity to talk one-on-one with China. I can only image what clever things Ukraine might offer or what opportunities they might use to generate positive press.

"There I was, in the Congo....working out the declination, signal processing and backscatter energy analysis required for the band radar UAV op....as I considered what would be the best movies to have on hand for a winter deployment. Btw, these boots might work for you but they're hell on this old Nam Marine recon sniper's feet." 

You can buy a variety of radars and lidars that will fit on a drone. The radars are available in mm wave, so you can get fairly high resolution with that.  A combination of drone and automotive applications are driving the size and power down.

You can buy a variety of radars and lidars that will fit on a drone. The radars are available in mm wave, so you can get fairly high resolution with that.  A combination of drone and automotive applications are driving the size and power down.

You can buy a variety of radars and lidars that will fit on a drone. The radars are available in mm wave, so you can get fairly high resolution with that.  A combination of drone and automotive applications are driving the size and power down.

Any number of military FLIR and SAR type systems.  What is weird about this thing is that is sounds a lot like it was written by ChatGPT or somesuch.  A lot of technical terms and buzzwords (Kinetic Action) being used out of context or in an odd context.
 

It's realistic and there's plenty of research out there you can find on the intertoobs. It's stretching the limits of absurdity to be reading a technical discussion about it from some Vietnam era Sgt Slaughter idly talking about it from a muddy trench behind Bakhmut though.

Give the mortar a round that's got a small amount of guiding/targeting ability and an EFP, have its fire directed by drones, and it's a bit like a ground based Apache Longbow, but potentially cheaper, stealthier (give it an electric motor and it doesn't make noise when stationary), and able to carry more rounds.

Can I be greedy and throw in electromagnetic impulse for the mortar, instead of charges? Or would that be gilding the lily?

Give the mortar a round that's got a small amount of guiding/targeting ability and an EFP, have its fire directed by drones, and it's a bit like a ground based Apache Longbow, but potentially cheaper, stealthier (give it an electric motor and it doesn't make noise when stationary), and able to carry more rounds.

hcrof is dead on here. In particular a 120mm breach loading mortar makes more sense by the day vs 120mm smoothbore designed to send APFSDS down range. You have to show most of the turret to shoot APFSDS, that seems ever less healthy even with the best armor and APS on the planet. 
I am mildly concerned that some wrong lessons could be drawn from this war if the late model NATO tanks show up, and just shreds giant gaps in in the crumbling and corroded mess that currently passes for the Russian army. Not that  would be unhappy about the Russians getting shredded, but it would reduce pressure to rethink things as much as I think the Pentagon and various other defense ministries need to rethink them. I mean the Chinese could be as stupid as the Russians have been even after watching the Russian's disaster, but I don't find it likely.

Anything fired from a lightweight drone (and probably even fairly heavy drones) is going to need to be recoilless unless you want the drone spinning around like a cartoon creature.

I also hope that that factory in Poland is working overtime producing lots of blow up copies of all these new vehicles.  Keep RU guessing.

I think the western armor remains a distraction.  The shaping is already going on with the destruction of RA high value targets, particularly things like AD/CB radar and EW equipment.  They're slowly blinding the RA further and making sure that UA remote operators will have free operating areas.

Im on the same page as ISW, always a good place to be.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-26-2023
"A negotiated settlement may therefore be unattainable because Putin will not accept the reality that he cannot actually conquer Ukraine".
 

In this day, year ago, on 26th of March 2022  UKR army successfully completed first offensive operation and liberated Trostianets' town of Sumy oblast (about 20 000 of population). 
Russians appeared on outskirts of Trostistianets' as far as on 24th of Feb, but their columns were advancing further to their priority objectives - Chernihiv and Kyiv. They just set some chekpoints around the town and made probes, which were repelling by local DFTG forces (Volunteer Formations of Territorial Communities - irregular add-ons to Territorial Defense Troops) - Trostianets' hadn't own Territorial Defense battalion and small unit of 93rd mech.brigade. But since 27th of Feb 2022 Russians entered to the town with large forces and up to 1st of March 2022 completely captured it. After Russian troops were unable to capture Sumy and Konotop, they established own HQ and transport hub in Trostianets'
DFTG unit became partisans and informators for 93rd brigade, which established defense line not far from the town. Formally operation of town liberation began on 21st of March, but during previous week UKR forces destroyed several columns, moving west and since 16th of March conducted several successful artillery strikes on Russian artillery positions. Also was hit command center of 96th recon brigade, which with units of 13th tank regiment of 4th "Kantemirovskaya" guard tank division were main forces, holding Trostianet's and it outskirts. 
21st of March partisans were in role of pass conductors - they, knowing terrain, brought to the town multiple small assault groups of 93rd mech.brigade, bypassing Russian checkpoints. In this day UKR troops couldn't liberate the town and they withdrew - clashes with Russian troops were lasting on outskirts of Trostianets' up to 24-25th of March, when 93rd brigade entered the town again. Russians couldn't stand and in the night from 25th to 26th of March abandoned the town. Allegedly commander of Russian 13th tank regiment shot himself, being unable to keep thіs crucial point. His regiment also lost many armor in this battle destroyed and abandoned. 
There are no more detailed information of this operation and number of losses of both sides. UKR side approximately lost about 50 KIA. 
 
 

I don't think I've seen this NYT article linked here yet - it's about the difficulty the US DOD/MIC is having in ramping up to supply Ukraine while also maintaining enough in stock to protect Taiwan.  Shouldn't be much of a surprised to anybody here, given how much it's been discussed, but it's getting higher visibility.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/us/politics/military-weapons-ukraine-war.html?smid=url-share