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acrashb

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  1. Like
    acrashb reacted to Lethaface in Israel War Thread   
    Indeed, apart from the logistical challenges of moving such a mass of people in such a short time without (probably) sufficient electricity/fuel/water/food/medicine there are many people in hospitals who would have issues moving even in a fully functioning western country. 
    Plus Hamas will probably hinder the movement as they (also) don't care about Palestinian lives
     
  2. Like
    acrashb reacted to chuckdyke in Israel War Thread   
    Gaza is not sustainable and nobody wants it. Egypt was offered the place during the Camp David accord. Yes it will be occupied by Israel whether they like it or not. It will come with responsibilities.
  3. Like
    acrashb reacted to ALBY in Israel War Thread   
    Howdy friend.
    Your analogy is flawed.  Russia is an aggressor. Israel is not. Israel is besieging a military target that is firing rockets and hiding an army.  Whether the Gazans are human shields or not is on Hamas.   The entirety of Gaza is a weapons free zone for targeting and it will all be legal.  
    Hamas broke every rule of war in their attack.  They must all die  
    We all feel bad when we have to shoot a rabid dog. But obviously, Israel cannot be expected to live next to baby murderers. War is hell, But it’s much worse if you lose.  We’ve seen this movie before. Don’t awaken your giant of an enemy and fill them with a terrible resolve.
    Delenda est Carthago. 
     
  4. Like
    acrashb reacted to Aragorn2002 in Israel War Thread   
    It's complete rubbish. Of course the Iranians knew. US and Israeli intelligence are just lying the stars from heaven, so they can explain to the dumb masses why they don't military respond towards Iran for the moment.
    Biden has enough problems as it is and Netanyahu first wants to eliminate Hammas with a devastating ground offensive. 
    First things first. 
  5. Like
    acrashb reacted to paxromana in Israel War Thread   
    Indeed it is.
    However, blockading a besieged place in time of war is not 'collective punishment' ... 
    And any civilian casualties which result are the legal responsibility of the besieged force ... Hamas in this case ... not of the besieger.
    Once the Israelis take control if, for example, they decided to blow up the Power Plant, that would be collective punishemnt ... what;s going on now is entirely at the foot of the Hamas fanatics.
  6. Like
    acrashb reacted to Splinty in Israel War Thread   
    Hamas, Hezbollah, and indirectly Iran will never allow that to happen. There are FAR too many fanatics in all those groups leadership, and their ranks to ever let any good solution happen. Until Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened to almost complete ineffectiveness and Iran contained, Gaza will be mired in poverty and terrorism.
  7. Like
    acrashb reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That’s actually a tank wearing some form of Cope Cap, but more importantly: now we need tank-riding in CMBS also. 😜
  8. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh goody, that kid showed up.  Russia is “still there” because they dug in behind minefields and won’t leave, hardly the high water mark of military performance.  The UA defeated the initial invasion.  Created conditions for a Russian operational collapse, twice.  And are now working on a third.
    Any chance you could be curious somewhere else if the sum total of your contribution is questionable, incited claims and pointing out that Jesus wasn’t really born on 25 Dec?  Asking for a friend.
  9. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You do realize you just violated the principle of my initial post?  “Oh hey look everyone, THH149 did ‘national intel selection’!”
  10. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am willing to bet half the guys on this forum have, or had clearances.  Let's just all agree to not go there in here.
  11. Like
    acrashb reacted to Astrophel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Few points in reaction to your post and several others:
    1) European support for Ukraine is instinctive and not diminishing.  There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children being educated in European schools - voluntarily - for 20 months already.  They even go "home" on vacation this summer while their European school was out.  Now they are back and learning hard.  The long war Putin has engineered with his mines and trenches and bloody sacrifices is working in fact long term against the russian interests. 
    2) When Ukraine wins Europe will be there with reconstruction and investment - this is where EU at least is best in class.
    3) Militarily we all need USA, as we have for 70 years.  Personally I doubt that USA will wobble on support for Ukraine.  If anything the current talk in USA reflects a trap being set for the Republican Party and also an echo of the assumption several months ago that a Ukrainian victory was going to be like a walk in the park.  Support for Ukraine is a wedge issue that might divide and destroy this current iteration of the GOP.  Every Republican I know would die for the values Ukrainians are dying for today.
    The situations elsewhere in the world are telling that the Obama hug and love approach does not work.  We are now in an idealogical conflict between liberal values and authoritarianism that goes way beyond Ukraine.  
    4) Militarily Biden still has another year and a bit to be Commander in Chief.  I back him to stick to his guns.
     
  12. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was a younger more energetic man then.  Now I just want to sit in my chair.
  13. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Deep breaths, my friend.  Going to get worse before it gets better.  
  14. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wanted to come back to this one.  This is not artillery clearing a minefield.  It is a minefield clearing a minefield.  The mines are too close together and the detonation pressure from one is setting off another.  Clearly the RA is in a “never too many mines” mood.  
  15. Like
    acrashb reacted to alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Please, guys, it's bad enough this thread has been dallying with conspiracy theories about how Russia invaded Ukraine because of Canada or something. I don't think it illuminates much about what's happening in Ukraine right now to theorize about how a conflict happening thousands of kilometers away - one which has been happening for decades longer than either Russia or Ukraine existed in their current incarnations - is actually all masterminded by Putin in order to... elect Trump?! I love political thrillers and spy stories too, but sometimes stuff around the world just happens, it doesn't all need to be connected to a sinister grand plan. For sure everything that happens everywhere in the world is connected in some way or another because that's the nature of human civilization, but that's a less interesting insight than I hope for given the expertise of people on this thread.
  16. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Really damn risky play.  Far right in the US get wind that Russia backed a slaughter of Israelis and the whole thing could swing enormous support into the arms of “let’s get Russia”.  Would only be a big win of the US does not find out and given the intelligence architectures in the region, that is a stretch.
    Done the math.  The “help” will likely be symbolic.  Israel does not need a lifeline of support to pound Hamas into sand, they just needed permission…and I think they just got it.
  17. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    All I want for (the real) Thanksgiving, is a River Crossing Assault to break the left flank!
  18. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So first of all, if you are turning to Lindsey Graham for foreign policy advice, you may want to check outside and ensure that the sky in in the right location.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/lindsey-grahams-foreign-policy-advice-donald-trump/572089/
    But that is just me.  
    Of course we want Russia to get back in the box.  Hell we want them back in the G7 and selling all that cheap gas.  We want the global order back because it was a lot more peaceful and profitable than whatever this is turning into.  We want Putin and enough of his ilk gone, but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy".  Ukraine is not a "weapon in our hands," it is a nation who we are desperately trying to keep above water.  The strategy you are proposing is so bafflingly short-sighted that is borders on self-destructive.  So how many Russians are enough?  What happens if Ukraine doesn't kill enough Russians to satisfy our bloodlust?  Of course when you are done killing Russians we will simply walk away and leave you in the ruins, because all we care about are dead Russians and not the reconstruction of Ukraine.
    There is an element of proxy war to this conflict, but it is not one we wanted.  If the objective were to destroy Russia, then we would drag this thing out for decades - that is the argument coming out of the US far right, btw, "this is a forever war where we fight til the last Ukrainian...we should get out now!"  MacGregor pretty much has been saying this from Day 1.  So all talks of "Dead Russians as Strategic Objective" and "Economic Interests - War for Cash" and "Ukraine is a Handgun", you can leave in the far right loonie bins where they belong. 
    Finally, if you are telling me that Canada, under a liberal government, is spending over 2 billion, coming up on 10 percent of our annual defence spending, in the defence of your nation because "killing Russians" is our sole national interest, then I think this conversation is pretty much over. 
  19. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If that were true then why is my country spending an order of magnitude more on support than it ever saw in trade?
    https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/ukraine/relations.aspx?lang=eng#
    https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/campaigns/canadian-military-support-to-ukraine.html#
    By your paradigm there is no stark national interest for Canada to spend billions in supporting your country.  Sure Russia is doing dirty but it is a country that we historically do much more trade with than Ukraine: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/canada
    https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports/canada
    We live under the security umbrella of the US and are 9 timezones away.  Beyond diaspora - and last we recognized that relationship it did not work out so well (https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-house-speaker-apologizes-recognition-veteran-who-fought-nazis-2023-09-24/)…why in the hell should we spend that much taxpayers money on Ukraine?  A non-NATO, non-EU, non-5EYES, non-G7 nation that is at war with another nation we historically did about 3-4 times more trade with?
    No, I reject your premise as it does not match the facts.  Do nations work toward interest?  Absolutely.  However, those interest are expressed as far more than money and fear - and they should be.  We are in this because we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now.  Where unilateral invasions are in fact against the law.  We built that world to get and stay well,  we also built it because we actually care enough about humanity that we would prefer we don’t destroy ourselves through narrow minded greed.  There is no hard geopolitical or economic reasons for Canada to be spending this amount of money on supporting your nation in this war.  There are some incredibly powerful morale and ethical ones, and as bafflingly ignorant as a we can be at times, those things still matter.
    We got rid of AP landmines because they did more harm than good.  Not some weird “hey everyone let’s disarm Ukraine so Russian can maul them later - tee hee”.  Same definitely goes for nukes - sorry but Eastern Europe was a hot mess after the USSR fell and no junior partner still trying to figure which way was up was going to be keeping hands on strategic weapons.  Frankly Ukraine was not that important to anyone’s calculus in the 90s and 00s to put that together - you may recall we kinda had our hands full.  
    So I think we are done here.  You want to be a bitter old man dreaming reasons why “everyone screwed you” and why “we all owe you”, I can’t stop you.  But the reality is that our sin in the west was we simply did not care.  We were focused on other things while Russia kept sticking its toes over the line while getting people hooked on cheap energy.  There was no conspiracy, there was neglect.  But Ukraine was and is an independent nation that needs to own it mistakes as well - and there were many.  In the end all that added up to an embolden Russia that leaned in to far too fast…and here we are.
    We support Ukraine because we all owe it to each other to ensure that we do not fall back into dictators doing whatever they want to grab power.  We fought two of the largest wars in human history in the last century when we allowed that to happen.  It is bigger than money and geopolitics.  It is bigger than whatever grudges, bias or prejudice you bring onto this.  This is about global order and the right thing to do.
  20. Like
    acrashb reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In Ukraine, both sides have modern integrated air defence systems,  with MANPADS, short range air defences, and longer range systems all the way up to patriot / s-300 / s-400 systems with huge ranges over 100km. They have the operational depth to locate these systems 10s of kms from the front line to help protect and conceal them. They have integrated radar systems, an air force with interceptors, and (to an unknown degree) at least potential access to airborne and space based intelligence gathering systems.
    In Israel, one of the sides has this (more or less), while hamas has no air defences beyond whatever manpads they've managed to smuggle in past the Israeli and Egyptian blockades, and a territory that is a few km wide at its widest point, and an opponent that started from a position of such military superiority for decades than any attempt to build a meaningful air defence system (in their tiny territory) would be detected and destroyed long before it was even marginally effective - assuming they could even find a route to get a significant system in theatre without it being intercepted. Hard to smuggle an s-300 through a small cross-border tunnel...
  21. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Like most of your other theories, come up with one shred of supporting evidence.  Of course there was diplomacy but no one coerced Ukraine into giving up land mines.  The fact that Ukraine still has cluster munitions is proof that coercion was not the primary method of trying to get people to sign on to any of these treaties.  Prove it.
    Again the West can’t win.  We somehow blindly trusted Russia and then violated agreements not to contain them through NATO expansion. We forced Russia’s hand and let them do dirty through inaction- at the same time.  Here is the truth and you can go back to the Budapest Memo debate we had on this…Ukraine agreed to all of the arms reductions the each step on the way.  Ukraine was paid millions for those reductions and signed off on every one.  Ukraine signed off on guarantees - weak as they were - as well.  So now that things have obviously gone sideways, you want to forget all that and put all the blame on the US/West for this mess?  You want to forget gross political corruption in defence - that is still happening according to some - that very likely would have seen all those MANPADs sold off to a highest bidder, many in those VEOs we faced for 20 years?  Are we to honestly believe that you are saying with a straight face that Ukraine would have held onto all that weaponry for a rainy day 20-30 years later?
    The West’s failure was in not acting decisively and with unity back in 2014.  We definitely did not step up and push back hard enough.  That is a fair point.  Further we definitely could have moved faster in late 21.  The rest of your narrative is unsubstantiated, and frankly self-serving.  The West does not owe Ukraine a damned thing based on its failures.  
    It owes you support because it is the right thing to do.  Ukraine is an independent nation that was minding its own business when Russia decided to invade and murder.  That is why we support Ukraine.  Not some bizarre construct of culpability pulling half the facts from the 1990s.
  22. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And this is where I stop listening.  "Forced" to sign the Ottawa treaty.  Sure.  By who?  Bigfoot?
    They were!
    "May 1990: Gorbachev and Bush Meet at Camp David and Washington
    Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met in Washington and Camp David in May 1990. They signed a key elements agreement for a strategic arms treaty, a chemical weapons reduction accord, and a trade agreement reducing barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce. They also concluded several other bilateral accords to increase cultural and scientific exchanges, and maritime and air links. In addition, the two leaders discussed the topics of Lithuania and German unification. Following the summit, President Gorbachev journeyed to Minneapolis to meet local business leaders. The next day, he met with former President Reagan in San Francisco before returning to Moscow."
    https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm#:~:text=Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met,barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce.
    Hey, you want to paint some nonsense Grampa Simpson rants on how this war you are in is all the US/West's fault - go for it, see how far it gets you in sustaining international support. 
    Oh and you totally got me with that picture:
      


    Clear indication of a Canadian conspiracy to get into bed with Russia...must be why we forced Ukraine to sign the Ottawa treaty.
  23. Like
    acrashb reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    C'mon, that is really bordering on conspiracy theories we do not want to get into. In fact the logic doesn't even make sense.  Israel had "too strong ties with Russia", yet Russia was also supporting Hamas to conduct an attack of this scale?  So Russia did this because...why?  Israel was already pretty much out of this war, so why open up another front?
    Russia is in bed with Iran because they are anti-US/West.  What interest does Russia possibly have in a war in Israel?  In fact if Russia had that sort of pull wouldn't Israel "going all in in Ukraine" simply accelerated what is happening now?  This is drawing links where none exist.  Hamas and Israel have been going to war with each other for over 20 years, they really don't need a Russian (or US) excuse to do so again.
    None of this comes close to justify saying that "it is all Israel's fault because Ukraine".  If Israel had somehow really supported Ukraine then Hamas would not be doing whatever this is, I mean seriously?!  
  24. Like
    acrashb reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It seems there's been a decade or two when everyone learned the pros and cons of the West (but mostly US) playing the World Police. Lots of people didn't like it.
    Now we seem to live in a decade where the West doesn't play world police, or at least is seems to be doing it a lot less. Lot of people also don't like it.
    Seems every way is wrong.
  25. Like
    acrashb reacted to kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the argument being made is post-90s Israel has stronger ties with Russia than is generally preferred, and as a result did not aid Ukraine as much as it could, and now that Russia is in bed with Iran of all countries to the detriment of Israel, and this could have perhaps been avoided with more Israeli aid. Plus Israel not developing Russia’s drone program, of course.
    Personally, I think Israeli aid would have helped, but I don’t think it would have changed the overall situation dramatically unless Israel went all in and said “genocide is bad, and we will commit whatever it takes to stop it”.
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