Elmar Bijlsma

Keep hitting them as they leave. Then if they don't stop with the terror attacks keep hitting them after they leave.

After WoW ("Wolski o Wojnie") FB and YT account. About polish support. Autotranslate from his FB post:
"
I see that the manipulation of Morawiecki's statement is beginning, and yet both fragments can be directly quoted:
"We will certainly not risk Ukraine's security, which is why our hub in Rzeszów, in consultation with the Americans and NATO, continues to play the same role as before. And it will continue to do so."
Nothing more needs to be added here. Supplies of materials for the defense of Ukraine have been, are and will continue.
However, the second fragment manipulated in the message:
"We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves
with the most modern weapons. If you don't want to defend yourself, you must have SOMETHING to defend yourself - this is our principle. And that is why we have made increased orders (...) we are focusing on quickly arming the Polish army."
Of course, the statement is taken out of context and manipulated, but this is the truth: while other large NATO countries give equipment from arms depots after disbanded units, Poland is the only country with numerous land forces that donated equipment taken from the lines. Taken from Polish soldiers from line units. The Germans are giving museum equipment - Leopard 1A5s, which even the Ukrainians did not want to accept. We are giving Leopard 2s that we are taking from the line in 10BKPanc, we are giving a battalion of Wolverines that we are taking from 17WBZ, we have given and are still giving "Twarde" PT-91s taken from the lines in Braniewo and Giżycko.
More than 270 T72M1/M1Rs donated to Ukraine were tanks freshly renovated from frontline units of the Polish Armed Forces.
In 2019, Poland nominally had 861 tanks. We donated approximately 350 of these to Ukraine.
40%! No one has given more than us in relation to the armed forces. Artillery?
By spring 2022, the Polish Armed Forces received approximately 82 Krab AHS. 54.65% went to Ukraine! I ignore deliveries from this year. There are many such examples. No one gave as much as Poland and as quickly as Poland. We simply don't have anything to give anymore. Because we have already taken it from a Polish soldier to give it to a Ukrainian one. We temporarily weakened the Polish Armed Forces, but thanks to the fact that equipment from Poland saved Ukraine, our security per se increased - by stopping Russian imperialism on the battlefield and by bleeding the Russian Armed Forces. In return, we buy new equipment, but these purchases - due to the need - are not optimal - we buy them on different terms because we have no choice. And the equipment is just arriving. We will close the gap for approximately 30-40% of the Land Forces by at least 2027-2028.
I really hope that the ill-considered statements of the Ukrainian side and the row over grain are the result of the position of the oligarchs and the quality of the political class in Ukraine, and not a cynical conclusion that we have already given everything we could give...
Please forward the entry. It will not make up for the damage that an ill-considered and out-of-context tweet from the Prime Minister's statement (from the PRM account) will make up for, but maybe it will explain the situation a little better."
Pleas consider this before writing bull**** about Poland support and selfishness.
 

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.
So how about everyone calms their tits?
 

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.
So how about everyone calms their tits?
 

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.
So how about everyone calms their tits?
 

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.
So how about everyone calms their tits?
 

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.
So how about everyone calms their tits?
 

Daily Kos has a nice daily update, almost all flavors of good news, but the bit above seems like the important part.

One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

😆 Yeah that's a pretty good line. Of course Firefly is full of good lines.

One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

Morawiecki's words were misreported, as he did not declare a policy shift, but stated as a matter of fact that Poland at the moment is not supplying arms to Ukraine, because it needs to rearm itself. This is generally true because most of assets that Poland could spare have been donated already and the new deliveries have yet to be realised. The press being the press reported this in a way which both creates controversy and satsifies the biases of the writers and the readers.
Still what Morawiecki refers to is important to understand the present crisis in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Poland was determined to help from the beginning and had a significant stock of post-soviet stuff which blended relatively well with Ukrainian assets. This caused Polish aid to be hugely important in the first period of the war. By now, we have largely shot our bolt and do not have so much to give anymore. Western European aid is on the rise, and countries like e.g. Germany can help Ukraine in EU accession negotiations which Poland cannot. Therefore, our value as an ally has decreased, apparently to the extent that Zelenski decided to prioritise the profit marigins on the sale of grain over UKR-POL relations. As long as we do not close the border or the Jasionka airport - which is not going to happen - Ukrainians will continue to benefit from most of Poland's value as an ally in this war.  Also, he may be counting on currying favour with the EU commission and Western European governements by creating a difficult situation for the PiS govt shortly before the elections.
Conversely, most of Ukraine's value as an ally to Poland is realised via Ukraine defending itself and killing Russians. At this stage it seems they are capable of doing it without Polish aid deliveries, with Poland acting just as an airhead and land bridge to UKR, so I expect this will be the equilibrium on which the matters will settle: we will keep providing the passive support plus training, repair services and deliver under the existing contracts. Cheering for Ukraine's wins and enthusiasm for post-war close cooperation will decrease, money and asset collection among the general populace will fall away, etc. - but these have always been optional and had no impact on the general direction of the war.
BTW this is exactly the course of events which was predicted by many Polish political analysts of the "realist" persuasion.
 

If I recall correctly, his identity was revealed a few weeks back and he deleted his account soon after the backlash hit. A fella went "thank you very much" and took over the free real estate and is running it as a pro Ukraine account.

If I recall correctly, his identity was revealed a few weeks back and he deleted his account soon after the backlash hit. A fella went "thank you very much" and took over the free real estate and is running it as a pro Ukraine account.

If I recall correctly, his identity was revealed a few weeks back and he deleted his account soon after the backlash hit. A fella went "thank you very much" and took over the free real estate and is running it as a pro Ukraine account.

If I recall correctly, his identity was revealed a few weeks back and he deleted his account soon after the backlash hit. A fella went "thank you very much" and took over the free real estate and is running it as a pro Ukraine account.

So, in the last few months it seems to be the case that Ukraine have:
Successfully countered/neutralised the attack helicopter threat which caused some worrying tactical issues in the early stages of the offensive. Improved their air defenses to the point where it seems like few Russian drone/missile attacks ever actually get through to hit their targets. Apparently resolved a potential artillery ammunition shortage by receiving/using DPICM where necessary. Developed a significant additional threat to ocean-going and coastal vessels/infrastructure almost entirely through the use of unmanned surface drones. Developed a long-range drone/missile threat that now routinely hits targets deep inside Russia. Established occasional small-scale attacks on facilities in Crimea as basically routine. Apparently broken through the Russian forward line in the south, with Western consensus seeming to be that further progress should now be relatively easy to achieve. While, in the last few months, it seems to be the case that Russia have:
Tweaked the age limits on existing conscription law, apparently in an attempt to scrape together a few thousand more men without further annoying the populace. Wallowed in internal mafia-politics, eventually resulting in the probable assassination of the Wagner leadership and subsequent apparent efforts to dissolve the rest of the group. So, first of all, is there anything significant that I have missed out from or got wrong about the above lists?
If not, what do we make of the fact there seem to be no real signs of serious concern or panic coming from the Russian leadership?  Where is the frantic lashing out and searching for solutions that you might expect of a military that appears to be heading towards at least an operational collapse?
Is it:
We are lacking in the information needed due to fog of war and/or biases in the information we have access to. The Russians are incapable of developing at the same pace as the Ukrainians for practical, cultural or economic reasons. The Russians do not actually perceive any serious threat posed by this summer's offensive, to the point that they are happy to sit in their trenches, confident that they will see it through. Assuming for argument's sake it is not actually #3, what do we expect to see from the Russian leadership in the next few weeks as a response to the worsening military situation?  I cannot imagine that the Ukrainians will break through additional lines of defence and begin moving into places like Tokmak without the Russian government trying pretty damned hard to manage that situation both militarily and publicly.

I love this.  Telling the suckers that 25 CAA is a reserve unit until Dec 1.  Of course it is.
"Don't worry comrade, you'll make a bunch of money to just train the rear for months, then be in reserve.  War will soon be over due to our wonder weapons and you probably won't see any of it.  What's that?  Comrade, you know that Putin would never allow new soldiers to be sent to the front without months of training & preparation.  He loves his soldiers, for he is the heart of the Motherland."

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.
That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.
That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.
That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.
That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

ISW hasn't updated their map in a couple of days, so I'm not sure how many of the recent Ukrainian advances have actually been confirmed yet (maybe there will be a big map update today?). But they did assess earlier that the current Russian line would probably be less effective than their forward positions. The Russians committed very heavily to defending their forward positions, those forces should have been significantly degraded by that fighting, and it doesn't look like they have anything in reserve.
The Russian static defenses in this area certainly look intimidating. But as had been discussed before, static defenses are only effective when overwatched by fire. Static defenses which aren't being overwatched are more of a speed bump than an actual obstacle. So if the Russians don't have enough troops left in the area to actually man all of those defenses, then they are not going to get the full potential out of those defenses.