Hizballa

[oren_m]

Originally posted by Saviola:

Yes oren, I thought about and am excited for you too. As hot off all credible news wires 3 Merkavas are being barbecued in Maroon al Rass, Lebanon, perhaps you’re havin’ a bit of a difficulty postin’.

The Lebanese are about to teach Oren’s squadron a true lesson in Asymmetrical warfare; the good news for oren is he will have a nice delicacy named after him, “Oren on The Cob”.

Doubtless the rest of his squadron’s tanks will serve as a well needed recycling outlet for machine shop small arms manufacturing. After they finish roasting that is.

You're an idiot! have a nice day.

Oren_m

[Beastttt]

How about this Sergie

Lebanon is bordered by the med to the west,syira to the north and most of the east jordan to the rest of the east and Israel to the south

if Syria is invaded the US would IMHO go in from the med in the west(access to more US bases and shorter supply lines from the europe

the eastern front the would simply play the anvil to the 7th fleet's hammer in the west

what does this mean

Hezbolla is surrounded

no support from Syria or Iran

unless they dig a tunnel

so for their own survival they would come to syria's aid because Isreal would march north and turn over every rock to root them out with no fear of syria or Iran intervening

Iran would have to go thru US held/supported Iraq first

and for them to even have a chance would entail nukes with no US response because otherwise they would have to grind them selves up crossing Iraq

and the US could trade space to the rivers to regroup and see how good Iranian engineers can build bridges under fire

Originally posted by Sergei:

That doesn't justify it either. Forces can be given the kind of experience level that is desired, so you can have Syrian militia who are Veterans.

[John Kettler]

dan/california,

That was a worthwhile read. It needs updating, though, since there's no mention of the effect the Syrian army's withdrawal has had on Hezbollah.

Regards,

John Kettler

[birdstrike]

Beastttt,

I dare to say that nobody here is ruling out completely the possibility of Hezbollah units partaking in defending Syria aginst a US attack - but the question is: how would the inclusion of specific Hezbollah troops differ from the inclusion of a generic type of irregular pro-syrian militia?

Talking in reference to CM1: in WWII let's say the British *** Corps kicked so much more a$$ than ### Corps - but how would their equipment, OOB or anything differ so much from other British units as to have them included in the game?

See, if CMSF gives you the opportunity to pick various militia units with variable training/experience, there really is no need to include a specific group.

[John Kettler]

birdstrike,

Based on what I saw today on a CNN special, Hezbollah is unique among Arab warriors for the last half century, unique in that small as it is, it has done what hundreds of thousands of regular Arab soldiers could not: drive main force Israeli units out following direct invasion by those forces. According to the program, Hezbollah has every right to claim effectiveness beyond all the regular Arab forces, say, crack or elite in a CM sense, coupled with what ought to be a high fanaticism rating. Further, Hezbollah is anything but irregular in structure, being in fact organized into brigades. Also, not only does Hezbollah operate essential services and provide relief in many parts of Lebanon, but it even has

its own construction firm!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Seanachai]

Originally posted by John Kettler:

birdstrike,

Based on what I saw today on a CNN special, Hezbollah is unique among Arab warriors for the last half century, unique in that small as it is, it has done what hundreds of thousands of regular Arab soldiers could not: drive main force Israeli units out following direct invasion by those forces.

Uh, yes. Very nice, John. I think it far more likely, though, that the Israelis are simply unwilling to incur even minor casualties against a minor enemy in what is, practically speaking, a punitive move against a sovereign nation that is simply too weak militarily to hold extremists in check.

Reduced to a Fourth World country by Israel previously, they're now being shattered again because previous Israeli incursions left them too politically and militarily weak to hold their own.

Israel has based both their military and political policies on regular 'culling' of their neighbours and the irregular forces that blossom in the vacuum that nation-shattering military incursions leave in their wake.

The weeds have gotten too rank in southern Lebanon, so it's time to prune back their capabilities. But there's no point in paying much for it, especially if you're going to have to turn around in a year or two and do the same thing in Syria.

And now, not only is Hezbollah fairly de-clawed, but Lebanon has been reduced once again to tatters. No strong nation to the north, current irregulars battered: Why spend any more lives or military capital than you need to?

Originally posted by John Kettler:

According to the program, Hezbollah has every right to claim effectiveness beyond all the regular Arab forces, say, crack or elite in a CM sense, coupled with what ought to be a high fanaticism rating.

Well, for one thing, before we start trumpeting Hezbollah's 'effectiveness' against that of 'Arab Armies', Israel hasn't fully engaged any 'regular Arab forces' since the '73 war. That was 33 years ago, John, and the Syrians managed to make that one hurt, even though they could not win it.

Also, changes in technology have, as the US is currently discovering, made irregular forces effective far beyond their actual capabilities, if the only criterion is 'short term, immediate damage'.

If the Big Player nations wanted to end the effectiveness of insurgents and irregulars, they'd get on top of the International Arms Market and shut it down. But for all the Neo-Con snarling and yapping about France and Russia, the United States does absolutely nothing about instituting effective control of arms sales, and, right up there with such slut nations as France and Russia, our equipment is just as available, albeit a few more hoops have to be negotiated before the insurgent seal can blow the head off the ringmaster.

We wire-tap, and trace the money (a far more effective and useful policy, in my opinion), and we posture endlessly. But move to regulate the world's Arms Industry? Never happen.

Originally posted by John Kettler:

Further, Hezbollah is anything but irregular in structure, being in fact organized into brigades. Also, not only does Hezbollah operate essential services and provide relief in many parts of Lebanon, but it even has its own construction firm!

Good for them! It'll make it much easier to identify the dead.

Oh, yeah, before I forget:

I think the game should...um...you know, take into account the whole 'Arab' thing. You know. And Iran. They're almost like 'Arabs'. There should be rules that, like, take into account the Arabs.

There. That should be enough to keep my post from being taken as 'political'. Christ knows it doesn't take much, given the Game concept.

Originally posted by John Kettler:

Based on what I saw today on a CNN special...

Oh, and John? CNN isn't out to inform you. They're out there to grab your attention, titillate you, and make you tune in for more. Just like 'Survivor'. The special you watched? That was the CNN take on 'who will get voted out of the Middle East next?! Stay tuned for all your Middle East Crises here!'

[dixon_el]

Do I sense bitterness in that post, Seanachai? Are you longing for the days when people actually thought about world affairs? When heros strolled the earth. MacArthur, Patton, Mikey Mouse.

Sigh.

The Arabs should be getting used to getting their heads slapped for being stupid. We only been doing it about 60 or 70 years.

But, what do you expect? Hezbullah starts the trouble and they get mad at Israel for slapping Hezbullah back. You have to be an idiot to let somebody launch a rocket from your kids room, and expect the response (from say, thirty miles away) to only hit the guy that lit the fuse.

Figure that?? :confused:

Cool, rules :cool:

[John Kettler]

Seanachai,

A cogent and well-argued post! I would certainly agree that the Israelis are taking an own casualty minimizing, firepower drenched approach (rather American, in fact) in the current fray/police action/war. The driving the invaders out, though, to which I referred, was in 1982.

While I'm familiar with the Israeli practice of periodically stomping on annoying neighbors, I think it's dangerous to believe the claim about Hezbollah's having been "fairly declawed." While Israel is claiming that it's got things pretty much under control, 100 more rockets hit Israel today.

There was some excellent ground truth footage shown of what those rockets are doing. They may not do all that much in CMBB, but Katyusha rockets, even in onesies, shatter most buildings. I saw badly damaged apartments (whole walls ripped off units), a hard hit post office, and the Haifa train station had a gaping hole in the roof over the platform, extensive fragmentation damage (and bloodstains on the concrete) and a sizable hole where the rocket motor kept going after warhead detonation, going right through the concourse floor. The ordnance ignorant tend to think that when a rocket detonates, the whole thing's gone. The program showed, via a collection of rocket carcasses, that something like three feet of steel

pipe remains after detonation, and it has formidable penetration capabilities just from kinetic energy.

I think it's worth noting, too, that Israel is being hit in places long thought unreachable. The pain once reserved for the kibbutzim near the border and places like Kiryat Shmona is now being visited on major Israeli cities, causing lots of people who haven't done it before to learn the hard way about dashing for shelters. Hezbollah's

reach has gone up dramatically in terms of range,

but where it gets really disturbing is when you plot just how much of the area of Israel is now targetable. What was once a relatively narrow strip has now become a broad swath. Fortunately for Israel, the northern end of the country doesn't have many major cities. Even so, many more are now at risk.

https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/is.html

This shows what I'm talking about much better, and according to the analysis dan/california posted, Hezbollah has free flight rockets with ranges of as much as 75 km. These sorts of weapons do not lend themselves to antimissile defense such as the Patriot PAC-3, and were I Hezbollah, I'd be thrilled to play that exchange game if the Israelis bothered to try it.

http://worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/lgcolor/ilcolor.htm

Of course, this analysis does not factor in the use of even more advanced weapons. In light of the unprecedented nature of the attack mounted on the INS Hanit, it would be prudent to expect exactly such a move.

I agree that weapon developments have made insurgent/irregular/militia/terrorist and other forces much more effective and dangerous, and I absolutely agree that the U.S. is a major culprit

when it comes to trafficking in arms, along with the other players you named. Indeed, one of the dirty secrets of Saddam's former chem/bio weapons was that France, Germany, the U.S. (American Type Culture Collection (Jim Baker et al.)) and others all helped provide the materials and equipment. Seems troops entering some of those huge ammo storage complexes during GW I videoed some really embarrassing things! Russia and former SU pieces thereof are definitely pumping weapons into the area, and I'd keep a weather eye for sure on the PRC. I used to get a newsletter covering worldwide arms sales, and the U.S. was always at or near the top after the Cold War ended.

Since you're arguing for special Arab and quasi Arab mods, I'll go further and suggest a percentage chance that if AQ encounters Hezbollah, that they'll go at each other. Apparently Bin Laden and Nasrallah hate each other. Does it go beyond the whole Sunni/Shia thing?

For what it was, I think the CNN program was pretty good. Certainly, it was head and shoulders

and torso above the mindless "It's World WAR III!

The sky is falling!!!" we've been getting nonstop from so many so-called conservative talking heads.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Saviola]

Originally posted by dixon_el:

But, what do you expect? Hezbullah starts the trouble and they get mad at Israel for slapping Hezbullah back. You have to be an idiot to let somebody launch a rocket from your kids room, and expect the response (from say, thirty miles away) to only hit the guy that lit the fuse.

No country in the universe brings to bear the destruction and incineration Israel is undertaking in Lebanon for two measly soldiers. And whoever thinks this was retaliation for the POWs and infiltration is a sap.

Israel’s was an all out plan prepared years ago with coordinates, designated targets, sleeper intelligence cells infesting Beirut and painting infrastructure targets. Israeli commanders were just waiting for that pretext and knew it would come soon. Israel’s is a machismo message to its neighbors, “mess with us, and look what becomes of you.”

Sharon didn’t implement the above plan because he had a Lebanon complex and was reprimanded by his own parliament for war crimes there in the 80s. Olmert is free of former baggage, is a civilian and has an inferiority complex along with something to prove. So he’s trying to prove it.

Lebanon presents a competing economic threat to Israel with its banking system, laundering savvy, tourist industry, maritime commerce and ability to pull a Lazareth repeatedly. Every summer the Israelis mount strikes to kill the Lebanese tourist season. They want a bear-foot and pregnant Lebanon to the north for ever.

Mid East wars between indigenous combatants, by their nature, last a few weeks. After 12 days of mass destruction, show the board where Hizbullah’s capacity to retaliate has been diminished. Their rockets are still being launched and Merkevas are still twisting into bloby metal.

Any unopposed air force can dispense mass destruction on urban infrastructure, cities, villages and their civilian dwellers. All Hizbullah has to do to claim victory here is exist after a cease fire. These are the kinda victory conditions that govern conflicts between mismatched Mid East combatants.

Originally posted by dixon_el:

The Arabs should be getting used to getting their heads slapped for being stupid. We only been doing it about 60 or 70 years.

You should start getting used to it too, in fact you’re starting to be very good at being on the receiving end. It’s you who’s being smacked around and humiliated in Iraq daily and don’t know how to extricate yourself. You’ve parlalysed and inserted yourself in a pincer between Iran and Syria.

Lest you forget, it’s the Arabs who’re takin’ out your best of the best day in day out in Anbar. You mounted 15000 offensives, gave them the most nancy and colorful names, leveled and pulverized, and you’re still losing 2 – 3 a day.

By the time you leave, you would’ve lost 6000 personnel, umpteen materiel, 6 years and 2 $trillion. And for what? To give Iraq to Hizbullah’s cousins. You think Maliki and his administration are happy about seeing their brethren’s families and children slaughtered to the west? Where did Hizbullah’s chairman receive his theological education and was idelologically molded? That’s right, in Shiite Iraq.

[Khane]

Originally posted by Saviola:

And whoever thinks this was retaliation for the POWs and infiltration is a sap. Israel’s was an all out plan prepared years ago...Israeli commanders were just waiting for that pretext and knew it would come soon

I also don't buy the story that all the **** in the north is to free the soldiers but how do you know that the Israeli commanders "knew" it would come soon? Did you read their minds ?

. Israel’s is a machismo message to its neighbors, “mess with us, and look what becomes of you.”

If the aim of Israel is to have a bear-foot and pregnant Lebanon (or other neighboring states) for ever whether they mess with Israel or not, why should Israel send a message at all. "Lebanon if you don't mess with us we won't destroy you competitive economy!"

Sharon didn’t implement the above plan because he had a Lebanon complex and was reprimanded by his own parliament for war crimes there in the 80s. Olmert is free of former baggage, is a civilian and has an inferiority complex along with something to prove. So he’s trying to prove it.

It sounds like you personally analyzed Sharon and Olmert in your office to make such a detailed psychological analysis.

was reprimanded by his own parliament for war crimes

If the Israeli establishment does all the destruction and death only to kill the economic threat that Lebanon causes (according to you) then this establishment is a collection of war criminals; why should they reprimand an other war criminal?

Every summer the Israelis mount strikes to kill the Lebanese tourist season

Who are according to you those Israelis who want a bear-foot and pregnant Lebanon to the north for ever ?

Every summer the Israelis mount strikes to kill the Lebanese tourist season

I barely remember what I did last summer so can you give me a list of all the former summers during which Israel has attacked Lebanon infrastructures in such a large scale as it does now or such an attack that could kill the tourist season?

the good news for oren is he will have a nice delicacy named after him, “Oren on The Cob”.

Nasty post. Any personal hard feelings toward Oren maybe?

Khane

[Dirtweasle]

Originally posted by Saviola:

.... the good news for oren is he will have a nice delicacy named after him, “Oren on The Cob”.

Doubtless the rest of his squadron’s tanks will serve as a well needed recycling outlet for machine shop small arms manufacturing. After they finish roasting that is.

What would cause a person to write such a thing? Albert Einstein sums it up best; "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."

[Darren J Pierson]

In the bad ole days in the forum I don't think posting such things about a fellow forum member would have been allowed by the mods, but we live in such more enlightened times today. Plus, thankfully, we keep the politics out of the game discussions. :cool:

[ July 23, 2006, 09:45 AM: Message edited by: Darren J Pierson ]

[juan_gigante]

John, I think you made some very good points about the strategic nature of Hezbollah, but I still believe that on the tactical level of CMSF, Hezbollah fighters can be represented by a standard "Irregular militia" unit, with higher experience and morale and better equipped. I'd be interested to hear from those with more knowledge on the subject than I if there are any significant tactical differences between Hezbollah and Irregular Militia X other than those we would already expect to have control of (morale, experience,some equipment changes).

[Matthias]

Seanachai made one of the better posts, and John too.

but what i don't understand is the odd couple of posts which are basically asking for this thread to be closed, to me it like saying

"i don't like reading peoples viewpoints that aren't the same as mine, please admins, close these threads because i am too stupid to not read them and be offended"

while this thread is only very very slightly related to Shock force, it still is, and even tho alot of the view points are at at the very ends of the political viewpoints they shouldn't be shunned away from, as Voltaire said

"I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend, to the death, your right to say it."

[Nidan1]

Originally posted by Matthias:

Seanachai made one of the better posts, and John too.

but what i don't understand is the odd couple of posts which are basically asking for this thread to be closed, to me it like saying

"i don't like reading peoples viewpoints that aren't the same as mine, please admins, close these threads because i am too stupid to not read them and be offended"

while this thread is only very very slightly related to Shock force, it still is, and even tho alot of the view points are at at the very ends of the political viewpoints they shouldn't be shunned away from, as Voltaire said

"I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend, to the death, your right to say it."

I will not defend a person's right to be hateful and predjudiced. Even the priviledge of free speech has it's limits in a civilized society.

BFC has expressly limited political discussions in these threads.

[Kwazydog]

Originally posted by Nidan1:

to be hateful and predjudiced. Even the priviledge of free speech has it's limits in a civilized society.

BFC has expressly limited political discussions in these threads.

Yup, we have.

The reason for this Matthias is that from our experience people often revert to personal abuse during such. In fact we even used to have a dedicated forum where people could discuss such things, but it took many many hours a week to moderate and despite several warnings that we would have to shut it down if the personal attacks didnt stop, they continued. It was unfortunate but as our time to moderate it was limited, that is the action we had to take.

I have left this thread open as initially it was somewhat on topic, but as you can see by the last few posts it is already heading in the wrong direction. We have left a thread open in the general forum to discuss this topic providing it remains on a civil level, and Im happy to say that it has thus far. As this is a game forum its probably best to take this discussion to that thread for now, or off site if it is likely to become heated.

Dan

[ July 23, 2006, 02:33 PM: Message edited by: KwazyDog ]