Is Iran the Next Iraq? on now 3a.m. PDT H. Chan U.S. -Time Warner

[John Kettler]

Show is an episode of Hardcore History. Presentation is sober and very groggy. Looks like somebody's making the Administration's case for attacking Iran.

Call the evidence impressive, provocative, and disturbing, to include high speed centrifuges from Pakistan (courtesy of Pakistani Bomb father A.Q. Khan) found aboard a ship (boarded by CIA and SAS

commandos) headed to Iran in 2003. There are lots of mindblowing overhead images, together with much information I was unaware of, to include a full blown set of nuclear missile warhead plans. Seems highly pertinent to CMSF in terms of how the case for war would be made. Extreme measures taken to protect nuclear secrets include razing several large buildings.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Peter Cairns]

So far the Iranians haven't broken any treaties, and the best they can be found guilty of is "Knowing how to build an atomic bomb", which isn't actually an offense, under any treaty that I am aware of.

Given that the US has just agreed to cooperate on nuclear energy with India and is arming both Pakistan and Israel, it's hardly got the moral high ground when it comes to preventing nuclear proliferation.

I am not sure what the threshold is for a radiological weapon, but if Iran has already reached the 3% needed for fuel rods, they can probably contaminate the most expensive real estate in any western capital if push comes to shove. It just depends if we are stupid enough to push and shove that much.

Do I want Iran to be a nuclear power, No

Do I think they are going to do it, Eventually Yes.

Do I think using force will do anything more than delay it, No.

Do I think a nuclear Iran would use them in anything other than the type of crisis that we would use them in, No

Do I think that kind of crisis is likely, No

Do I think that kind of crisis is far more likely if we've been bombing them, YES YES YES YES...

We went in to Iraq to protect ourselves from the threat of terrorist, Dictatorships and the failed states that breed and harbour them, and look at the place now for god's sake.

Peter.

[Londoner]

Hahaha, defty put Mr Cairns! Now get back to counting those beans.

[oren_m]

Just remember that during the 1930's until the invastion to Poland, Hitler did'nt broke any treaties also, that's still does'nt made him a peacefull human being.

So the fact that Iran "only" have the nuclear knowledge makes it a good target for a regieme changing war.

Ahmadinajad speaks freely and publicly about the distruction of israel and against the western world, i'm not even speaking about his opinions about gay people and even about other arab ethnic groups such as the Sunnis.

So, think what would such a man will do with a nuclear bomb...

Oren_m

[ April 23, 2006, 10:46 AM: Message edited by: oren_m ]

[Peter Cairns]

Ronald reagen talked about Bombing Moscow, Pat roberts wants to kill Chavez, and he's not exactly keen on gay people either.

Hitler had annexed the Czechs and had already killed hundreds of his own people. True Iran backs anti Israeli groups in Palestine and the Lebanon, but the US backed the Contras and Afghan Rebels, and despite repeated calls for the end of Soviet domination of eastern europe, I don't think that justified a soviet pre emptive strike.

Hell given current trade rhetoric comming off capital hill these days, on that basis the Chinese would be launching a nuke a week.

Peole are always bringing up the "What about Hitler" line, on the basis that as there was once this terrible guy that wasn't stopped you should shoot first and ask questions latter. That's why ever year so many kids in the states goofing around get shot by people scared of burglars.

Peter.

[TC_Stele]

I think we should let the UN handle this one....... (giggles madly)

It's going to be a damned it you do, damned if you don't situation. With the friendly relations Iran has expressed to Israel lately, you can be sure that if the US doesn't do anything, Israel won't be comfortable just being idle. They sure didn't let Saddam have his toys, so I'm pretty sure they won't let a nation, which chants their death, have them either.

[Peter Cairns]

If Israel acts then the U is in the firing line anyway. this isn't like the Israeli attack on the Iraqi reactor site, when they just cut across a small piece of neighbours air space.

To hit multiple targets deep in Iran more or less similtanoiusly they will need a lot of aircraft, certainly 50 plus, including AWAC's and Tankers, and they will need to not only fly but loiter over Iraq.

That means the US which has air superiority, and indeed as the occupying power, probably has legal responsibility to defend and protect Iraqi airspace.

So the US has to decide does it intercept or do nothing. I suspect it's do nothing, in which case as far as the Arab world will be concerned it's an American attack.

It leaves the Saudi's in an awkward position, as they will probably have the ability to warn the Iranians ( AWAC's) and will have to decide whether or not to do so. Again if they don't then it will be seen by the Iranains, many arabs, and probably a lot of Saudi's as making them a party to the attack.

The Saudi's would have to weigh up the consequences of failure. If this doesn't work and Iran goes nuclear, they will have a very powerful and angry neighbour.

I don't if the Syrians will want to get involved, but they will almost certainly warn Iran. Even with the best will in the world, this is unlikely to be a surprise attack.

I think the round trip to Iraq and back was about 1,250 miles, this time you could well be talking close to 3,000, depending on the route for some of the units.

This article seems to cover most of the points, although I'd have thought flying the tankers as commercial flights be they air charter or frieght as a cover would be an option.

Attack on Iran

Anyway up shot is I doubt israel can really pull it off with any real chance of success unless of course they go for the nuclear option, or have a ALCM system they aren't telling people about.

Peter.

[Kiwi Joe]

To a man with a hammer every problem looks like a nail... No wounder 1/2 the world hates America.

[Sixxkiller]

I think whats missing here is not that Israel can attack Iran if they get a bomb, cause there is no doubt thats what will happen. Doesnt matter if they have to invade anothers airspace. Who besides us can do anything to stop them?

Not like we will intercept and shoot them down if they go over Iraq. Not like our position is really any different than the Israeli one. Besides if Iran gets a bomb it AUTOMATICLY puts everything the US has done in the Mid East back 50 years. I cant see a US President letting that happen. As long as its after my discharge on June 3rd I am happy.

[Peter Cairns]

Sixxkiller,

And why exactly does it put things back 50 years, to what 1956.

Lets see whats happened since then, the suez crisis, the Yom Kippur war, rise of the PLO and terrorism, the seven day war, invasion of the Lebanon, and the fall of the Shah. I

f you look at Us policy in the middle east since the late fifties it's hardly been a string of successes.

Sure Israel is still there, but that's a bit like saying the siege of Leningrad was a victory because it didn't fall, technically true but hardly much consolation for the tens of thousands of people who died.

Oh and take a look at whats been happening to Indian/Pakistani relations since Pakistan got nuclear parity, have things got worse, no now that Indian has to be careful about the possibility of a war, surprise surprise they are willing to talk and are taking measure to reduce tensions and build confidence.

Gee whiz, now if you were a cynic, you might think that what's really worrying Tel Aviv and Washington is not being able to tell the arabs to "F*%$ OFF" if they don't like US/Israeli policy....

Peter.

[MikeyD]

Iran's on the front burner because of some collossal mistakes on the part of the U.S. in recent years. Bush overran Iran's neighbor for no apparent reason, scaring the bejezus out of them (would they even want the Bomb if the U.S. weren't continually threatening to attack?). As a result the centerist government got tossed out and a right wing religious hardliner was elected to office on the strength of a largely overlooked conservative rural population ...same as happened in the U.S. in 2000... except for the difference that in the U.S. election the right wingers actually lost and had to grab power via a judicial coup d'etat.

[TanksMucho]

Originally posted by Peter Cairns:

So far the Iranians haven't broken any treaties, and the best they can be found guilty of is "Knowing how to build an atomic bomb", which isn't actually an offense, under any treaty that I am aware of.

Given that the US has just agreed to cooperate on nuclear energy with India and is arming both Pakistan and Israel, it's hardly got the moral high ground when it comes to preventing nuclear proliferation.

I am not sure what the threshold is for a radiological weapon, but if Iran has already reached the 3% needed for fuel rods, they can probably contaminate the most expensive real estate in any western capital if push comes to shove. It just depends if we are stupid enough to push and shove that much.

Do I want Iran to be a nuclear power, No

Do I think they are going to do it, Eventually Yes.

Do I think using force will do anything more than delay it, No.

Do I think a nuclear Iran would use them in anything other than the type of crisis that we would use them in, No

Do I think that kind of crisis is likely, No

Do I think that kind of crisis is far more likely if we've been bombing them, YES YES YES YES...

We went in to Iraq to protect ourselves from the threat of terrorist, Dictatorships and the failed states that breed and harbour them, and look at the place now for god's sake.

Peter.

Will you stop for a minute and reflect on how right you are?

Are you the voice of reason and the consummate diplomat? Absolutely.

Should your sanity and cool head entitle you to takeover as president? Yesterday isn’t soon enough.

Should your less handsome, equally perceptive brother replace Rumsfeld? Without a doubt.

Is your level of intellect paralleled within red states? In a pig's eye.

Are you an expert on the intricacies of the NPT and laws which govern it? Par

excellence.

Are you and like-minded Americans who aren’t in a trance too late to save us all? Afraid so.

Will many say you told us so at the $8 a gallon level? Lamentably yes.

[Peter Cairns]

$8 a gallon.....

I am paying £1 a litre, and Scotland is an oil exporting nation, see if you can figure that one out.

Peter.

[TanksMucho]

Originally posted by oren_m:

Just remember that during the 1930's until the invastion to Poland, Hitler did'nt broke any treaties also, that's still does'nt made him a peacefull human being.

So the fact that Iran "only" have the nuclear knowledge makes it a good target for a regieme changing war.

Ahmadinajad speaks freely and publicly about the distruction of israel and against the western world, i'm not even speaking about his opinions about gay people and even about other arab ethnic groups such as the Sunnis.

So, think what would such a man will do with a nuclear bomb...

Oren_m

Here’s what YOU should remember, the Iranian president is merely addressing unfinished business. He’s lamenting the fact that Hitler didn’t incinerate your grand parents along with then-toddler Olmert genius.

You’re concerned about the well being of gays are ya? That’s one sorry ass predicament, a Golani nance.

Heck, half the population of the union’s red states, rural and middle America want Israel and its kind wiped off the map, the mullah merely had the stones to announce the desire of half the globe. Suddenly everyone is shocked, shocked!

All you impotent Israelis wanna do is fight to the last American. And you’ve three stooges in the white house buying every one of your diabolical designs.

Israeli generals brag to the media about takin' out Iran’s subterranean facilities preemptively eh? Why the Israeli air force couldn’t take out a massive herd of goats in south Lebanon, let alone distant, scattered bunkers. You ran outa there like horrified flea-infested gay dogs. But hey, Olmert can sure lobby Kike-placating Americans to sacrifice their constituents’ sons for the ends of a manipulative and damnable Jew state.

The only force on earth that can undertake such a bombing mission is the US Air Force. Tel Aviv can only stoke, poke, drool, wish and dream.

Consider this though, Israeli soldiers like your Cabala Shylock ass are very good with bulldozers. Hell, give Oren a bulldozer and he’ll turn Harlem and its inhabitants into Fenway Park & Cemetery overnight.

You can talk, nag and whine till you turn blue and dead, Iran will get the bomb, later rather than sooner, but will get it. The days of Kikes being the lone Nukes-bully in western Asia are long gone shmuko. Start learnin’ to be on the receiving end. Oh! Wait, you’re already good at that, you’re Oren nance.

The only regime change that’s takin’ place in your neck of the woods is that of your blimp and comatose ex prime minister, the Pol Pot of the Mid East (worse than Hitler). Because he sure changed his regime, he once weighed a ton and now, after a good brain toastin’, his comatose ass may resemble earth dwellers after all. It’ll be nice if all of Israel follows this kinda Kike “regime change.”

I'm confident the above lighthearted observations won't be construed as anti-Semitic.

[ April 24, 2006, 01:36 PM: Message edited by: TanksMucho ]

[TanksMucho]

Originally posted by TC_Stele:

I think we should let the UN handle this one....... (giggles madly)

It's going to be a damned it you do, damned if you don't situation. With the friendly relations Iran has expressed to Israel lately, you can be sure that if the US doesn't do anything, Israel won't be comfortable just being idle. They sure didn't let Saddam have his toys, so I'm pretty sure they won't let a nation, which chants their death, have them either.

When it comes to bombarding Iran’s numerous nuclear facilities, Israel has no choice whatsoever but to remain “idle.” It can feel as uncomfortable as it wants, foam at the mouth and lay eggs, it has neither the capability, ordnance, airspace, or logistics for such a distant and complex mission. Better yet, an air campaign which must be sustained for at least several days to have any semblance of success.

The implied claims and threats of Israel are the stuff of posturing, grand standing, theatricals and misinformation. The only country in the universe capable of mounting such a bombing campaign is the USA. Next to America’s might, Israel comes off as a crushable termite.

However, termites by their nature are destructive and treacherous insects, they covertly infest giants and begin to attrit and corrode. That’s how Israel incites and indoctrinates Washington neocons to do its dirty work. The Israelis attain a strategic piece of mind over the dead bodies of young American soldiers and their Defense $billions. __ First Iraq, and now the nagging and whining on Iran ( proof? Oren m Nance).

To compare the Iraq 1980s bombing run to a potential Iranian bombing campaign is futile and militarily comical. In the 80s, Iraq was engaged in a vicious war with Iran and had ONE overground, merely defenseless and uncompleted nuclear reactor. Israel exploited Saddam’s preoccupation with the first Gulf War and struck. Even with all the latter Iraqi debilitations, Operation Sphinx almost failed due to refueling problems.

To add to what Mr. Cairns stated, in order to insure first strike success, an Iran campaign has to designate hundreds of targets in a coordinated, integrated, simultaneous maritime, surface and air effort.

The above is notwithstanding the need for in place, vast supplies of smart, dumb and b bustin’ ordnance coupled with covert ground element laser guidance. Add to the latter, battleship, sub and naval patrol presence to keep the Straight of Hormuz open for tankers and your SUV. Whence da **** does Israel come up with such colossal, superpower capability and assets? Hah? From a bagel shop?

By the time US bombers begin returning to Diego Garcia, and as we complete our 5000th sortie, Israel would still be sucking Turkey’s dick to let it over pass with its two F16s. Forget about Syrian, Jordanian and Iraqi airspace, not gonna happen. And as if airspace was the only prohibitive factor.

Now if you tell me Israel has the capability to bombard heavily populated, emaciated and famished Gaza ghettos, I’ll more than agree with you. But even then, it’ll run out of ordnance and ask us for more; freebies of course.

Such grandiose campaigns are for giants, not their flea-ridden pets. And the mere reassuring knowledge of Americans possessing this almighty, unmatched capability is enough. Prosecuting a last hooray, $costly and needless Iranian campaign at the behest of Israelis and Rumsfeld is pure folly.

[ April 24, 2006, 01:09 PM: Message edited by: TanksMucho ]

[John D Salt]

Originally posted by oren_m:

Just remember that during the 1930's until the invastion to Poland, Hitler did'nt broke any treaties also, [snips]

Up to a point, Lord Copper.

If you are talking about Adolf Hitler, I would point out that he broke the treaties of Versailles and Locarno, the Washington Naval Treaty, the Munich agreement and the non-intervention agreement for the Spanish Civil War before invading Poland -- probably plenty of others, too, but all those are pretty well-known to anyone who has looked at the rise of Nazism.

If, on the other hand, you are talking about William Hitler of Liverpool, then you're probably right.

Originally posted by oren_m:

Ahmadinajad speaks freely and publicly about the distruction of israel [snips]

So, think what would such a man will do with a nuclear bomb...

Not much, unless he really wants Iran to become the world's biggest radioactive glass ashtray.

All the best,

John.

[Peter Cairns]

Johns right,

For all we might not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, all the evidence is that they act as a restraining influence on leaders rather than embolden them.

They may help to negate another powers conventional advantage, I doubt that we could have assembled a coalition to get a nuclear Iraq out of Kuwait, and that could lead to escalation which could get out of control. but we just have to live with that.

It's an odd thing about revolutionary countries, they talk about spreading and freeing the workers, but once they get in and their feet under the presidents desk, it's amazing how defensive they become. Without Hitler there is no good reason to believe Stalin would have struck east.

China has never invaded Taiwan despite the rhetoric, and where revolutionary states have acted such as Afghanistan and Tibet, it has been seen as low risk (although like Saddam in Kuwait , things that look low risk aren't always) and on the margins.

For all the talk there really isn't a lot of evidence for Iran attacking it's neighbours. The revolution was in 1979 nearly thirty years ago and by far the worst anti western events were in the first five years, indeed compared to Russia and China the chao's was neither as deep or long lasting.

According to the CIA yearbook, Iran exports 2.5m barrells of oil a day, which if we assume a $50 dollar profit at todays prices, makes $45bn a year. Israel has a GDP of $140bn, Iran over $550bn.

Given the current situation Israel probably doesn't want, and could ill afford an arms race.

If I was the the Iranians and want to undermine Israel, I'd keep up the rhetoric and the occasional missile test etc, and with luck, Israel will bankrupt itself trying to compete with someone who isn't really trying.

Peter.

[Londoner]

Originally posted by TanksMucho:

I'm confident the above lighthearted observations won't be construed as anti-Semitic.

I bet you are.

[oren_m]

I still cannot understand why people like ThankMucho are allowed to be born...

[TanksMucho]

I don't mind J D's Saltiness, nor am I looking for longevity on thsi board. To have lasted more than 1 post is a triump already. Cha, Cha.

[ April 24, 2006, 03:37 PM: Message edited by: TanksMucho ]

[John D Salt]

Originally posted by TanksMucho:

[snips]

Since I’m in arbitrage and derivatives, I have some figures for you Peter: since there’s 3.785 liters to a gallon and today’s Sterling exchange rate is @ £1.7891 to the US Dollar (not bad actually, glad I bought Sterling last week), your projected war petrol cost will be ~ £3.781 per liter.

If you're in arbitrage and derivatives, why can't you convert dollars to pounds accurately?

Oh yeah, I remember, you're a Jew-hating imbecile.

John.

[Pirate Bill]

In the words of the nation of Australia:

"WTF mate?"

[Peter Cairns]

TanksMucho,

Oh and I think you forgot to convert from US gallons to Imperial as well, not being an arbiter of anything i don't have an exact figure, but it's around 4.45 ltrs.

I am also with john ( a guy I don't to be honest often agree with), on his comments about your language. As most people on this forum know, I am neither a fan of current US policy or long term Israeli policy towards the West Bank and Gaza.

However even though I disagree with guys like Oren and have said so to him, I have never isnsulted him, racially or otherwise, because I don't agree with him. Nor have I attacked Israeli's or jews in particular for their respective governments failings, no more than I blame Americans for Bush, or Germans for Hitler.

If we ever needed evidence that Steve etal are hard at work it's the fact that you haven't been booted already for some of that language.

I may not have an higher status than member ( though it would be nice, hint, hint) heres some advice for a junior one,

"Tone it down or you soon won't be one at all".

This was not a political discussion and was doing nicely till you crossed the line.

Peter.

[TanksMucho]

Originally posted by oren_m:

I still cannot understand why people like ThankMucho are allowed to be born...

I can give a lucid answer. My parents are loving and tolerant folk, when they had me, little did they know their son would be on to your country's and people's ruinous designs on mine.

Who's America's worst friend and enemy? Israel. Who's a threat to the globe? That's right. Whose barks will no longer be heeded (hoepfully)? Right again.

There's yet a lot you're incapable of understanding, so Spare us the sentimental malarky why don't ya.

[Moronic Max]

So, which current (or former) forum member is TanksMucho?

On topic, I'm not worried about Iran using nukes on its own; I'm worried about Iran supplying nukes to people who will use them.

I'm not sure if that's a realistic fear, though.