How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I Google Earth'd Borysoglibsk, Russia and from the image I could count 52 fighter/bombers scattered about the facility., plus another three that appeared to be painted on because a big helicopter was parked on top of them. Again, roughly 500km from a likely Ukraine launch point.

Those are better paint jobs than I have seen on other Russian air bases.

[sburke]

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

He is betting EVERYTHING on a certain election on Nov 5th. If Harris wins and makes clear Ukraine support will continue at the same level Putin's situation may get truly interesting.

Betting with a crappy hand.  Even if Harris loses on Nov 5th, Biden is in office till January.  So at a minimum Putin has to weather current sanctions and support for the UA for another 3 months.  Be interesting if in the event of a loss, Biden says "go ahead and fire off our missiles at any target you want that isn't a nuclear missile silo."

Edited 10 hours ago by sburke

[akd]

3rd Separate Assault Brigade holding a static position in Kharkiv region, with SPG-9 used for indirect fire:

12th SF Brigade Azov defending against Russian attacks near New York.  Russians using up-armored light pickups as assault vehicles:

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@stop_the_prop/post/DAoWlS1q_GH?xmt=AQGzQUPvKkwz1SYIRkmrUJBvNHkSLkr5Y5vX3ZZQglJtng

Nothing is said on russian state TV without approval of the Kremlin. If Vladimir Solovyov can say this live on air, Putin has lost the FSB and Kremlin.

Tik tok, tik tok,

 

Solvovyov pretty much calling for Putin to resign on Russian TV, IF this this translation is real. I would argue that is about the loudest creaking noise we have heard.

[Jiggathebauce]

Ukrainian Kurt Russell in Escape from New York, a new adaptation 

[Offshoot]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.threads.net/@tsua_23/post/DAk1DRTIYz4?xmt=AQGzQUPvKkwz1SYIRkmrUJBvNHkSLkr5Y5vX3ZZQglJtng

The Russians deployed 50 units of heavy armored vehicles in another attempt to break through to the Oskol River near the village of Pishchane.This is the their priority offensive line near Kupyansk,the river is only 1.5 kilometers away. However, our soldiers stopped the breakthrough attempt before the enemy even approached the Ukrainian positions.In total, Achilles claimed to have destroyed or damaged 40 units of Russian equipment on September 26 alone, with each episode filmed and recorded.

Tied in with reports of diminishing stocks and 2025 being Russia's year of reckoning, I wonder if (hope that) the recent spate of large scale mechanised assaults is one last gasp before the rasputitsa hits this year end.

[Offshoot]

 

55 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Solvovyov pretty much calling for Putin to resign on Russian TV, IF this this translation is real. I would argue that is about the loudest creaking noise we have heard.

Putin ordered his military to remove Ukrainian forces from Kursk by October 1 - that's one little mouse that got away.

[sburke]

sounds like he actually did not call for Putin's resignation.

Russian TV Host's Putin Comment Draws Gasps From Fellow Guests - Newsweek

On Sunday, TV host Vladimir Solovyov spoke on the situation in the country's western border regions, and argued that there would need to be dire consequences for Ukrainian "terrorist" attacks on Russian soil.

These included executing members of "Navalny's network," referring to supporters of political activist and opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in February while serving a prison sentence at a corrective colony in the Russian arctic.

Solovyov appeared to say that, as a result of Ukraine's incursion, which began on August 6, "a resignation is necessary."

It was unclear whether he was referring to resignations by officials near the border, or by the country's leaders, but the comment resulted in exasperation from his guests, which included State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov.

Independent Russian news agency Agency News, which posted the exchange on Telegram, said that the misunderstanding stemmed from the guests hearing Solovyov utter Otstavka, meaning resignation.

According to Agency News, he was more likely using the term Stavka, and was calling for the creation of a "headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief," referring to a pre-revolutionary military body of the Russian Imperial Army.

The Stavka served as the headquarters for the army during World War I, first led by Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich and later by his cousin, Emperor Nicholas II.

While the reaction to Solovyov's comment are understandable given his reference to a now-obscure military body, it signals the hold that the Russian president maintains over the country and the infeasibility of his abdication or overthrow.

[sburke]

on the other hand there is this -

Russia Scraps Population Census As War Casualties Mount - Newsweek

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a federal law suspending part of the All-Russian Population Census.

According to some sources, this measure is intended to hide Russian society from the demographic impact that the casualties in Ukraine are having on the population.

A tally by independent Russian media outlet Mediazona and BBC News Russian released on September 27 said more than 71,057 Russian soldiers had been confirmed to have been killed, an increase of 1,998 since its last update in mid-September, although an estimate by Kyiv in the same month put the Moscow's total losses at 649,170.

Newsweek has not been able to independently verify the figures.

The law, effective until January 1, 2029, halts Paragraph 4 of Article 3 of the census law, affecting the frequency of selective federal statistical observations, which traditionally cover a sample of at least 5 percent of the population.

The suspended paragraph had mandated regular surveys as part of Russia's ongoing efforts to track population changes. However, with this change, it is unclear how Moscow will proceed with population tracking in the coming years.

The suspension was approved by the Federation Council on September 25, 2024. Russian officials have yet to clarify if or how they plan to compensate for the lack of up-to-date population data over the next five years.

Additionally, Moscow's suspension of this key census component may affect international bodies and businesses that depend on the country's demographic data for analysis, market strategies, and forecasting. It also adds Russia to a growing list of countries grappling with how to maintain accurate population statistics in the face of financial, technological, and political obstacles.

While the suspension is set to end in 2029, it remains uncertain whether other changes to Russia's census process will be introduced during this period.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Had a nice long break in Scotland for a bit, was a nice break to see the highlands!

In the meantime:
 

AFU tank having some particular fun at close range against BMP's. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Also some rare footage of the Hawkeye at work. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/DAriGYDI_Sa?xmt=AQGzQUPvKkwz1SYIRkmrUJBvNHkSLkr5Y5vX3ZZQglJtng

A Ukrainian FPV drone with a thermite munition burns out a shelter of Russian occupiers.

 

Ouchy