How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Russia's strategic campaign of destroying Ukraine's power grid seems to be increasingly effective, unfortunately.

In previous year they hit mostly power distributive sites and transformer sites of power plants. But turned out Ukrianian power specialists and State Emergency Service  managed to reapir damages very quickly and substitute destroyed transformers and other equipment - we got alot of this stuff from differnet countries. 

So likely Russian generals decided previous startegy turned out ineffective and dicided to hit objects of generation. This is an indicator Russia has no illusions more that they can grab Ukriane and use our power resourses, but on other hand power units are too vulnerable and can be repaired - after the war we have to rebuild most of thermal power plants. But this is also good sign - less coal and oil fuel generation - it a plus to ecology and opportunity to small nuclear power plants and solar/wind plants. 

But now becvause we lost most of our "maneuver generation" and forced to import electricity, our government has rised cost of electricity almost in 2 times, now we will pay 0,108 $ for kilowatt. 

Concerning today' strike here it statistic:

35 Kh-101/555 - 30 shot down

10 "Kalibr" - 4 shot down

1 "Iskander-K" - 1 shot down

3 Kh-59/69 - no intrceptions

4 "Iskander-M" - no interceptions

47 "Shahed" - 46 shot down

Total 35 missiles from 53 and 46 UAVs from 47 

 

Edited June 1 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

False M777 howitzers

And one of these already done it work

I wonder how much of such stuff mistakingly counted by Orix team as real losses.

[ArmouredTopHat]

55 minutes ago, Viko said:

The recent Russian offensive near Kharkov was carried out with virtually no armor and was very successful. Special forces units played a decisive role.

You know, you kinda show your true colours by referring to Kharkiv as Kharkov. Also interesting take on an offensive that very quickly bogged down and is now resulting in considerable Russian losses.

Edited June 1 by ArmouredTopHat

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Viko said:

The recent Russian offensive near Kharkov was carried out with virtually no armor and was very successful. Special forces units played a decisive role.

Honestly, it doesn't appear you have the background and knowledge necessary to judge military operations.

From what we can tell the Kahrkiv border crossing failed to achieve what the Russians were aiming for, namely to create conditions which were so threatening to Ukraine that it had to draw down forces from the Donbas in enough quantity that opportunities would open up for advances. 

Another probable goal was to weaken Western support for Ukraine by showing that Russia can not be defeated.  The result was the West loosening up 2+ years of restrictions to allow Ukraine a wider choice of how to target Russian assets within Russia.  On top of that, the quick stall out and massive casualties suffered by Russian forces gave pro-Russians another thing to grumble about because they expected more.  It also seems a planned operation for Sumy had to be called off.

Considering the timing of the offensive and the "peace offering", it is probable that Putin was hoping this would get Ukraine to agree to a cease fire on Russia's terms.  Instead, we got nothing on that front followed by the first prisoner transfer in 3 months.

And lastly, Russia had rebuilt this particular force and invested it in a meaningless border crossing because it couldn't make any progress on the main front.  You know, the part they REALLY care about.  This is why I concluded, weeks ago, that Russia is desperate.

This does not mean everything went great for Ukraine.  It appears the local commander botched the preparations for the expected Russian move and lost his job because of it.  Still, even with that the Russians stalled out quickly and died in large numbers.  Further evidence that Ukraine's ability to defend is solid, even if it isn't perfect.

You should listen/watch this video.  Perun speaks of things we covered here the week before he made the video.  It summarizes things quite nicely:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

False M777 howitzers

And one of these already done it work

I wonder how much of such stuff mistakingly counted by Orix team as real losses.

That's an interesting question!  One thing I have noticed is that observers are looking for secondary munitions explosions to confirm a true hit.  I saw some of that with the recent S-300/400 complex that was hit by ATACMS.

Steve

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Honestly, it doesn't appear you have the background and knowledge necessary to judge military operations.

To be fair, that is true for most of us here who are mere armchair generals. Which usually doesn't keep us from judging military operations on a daily basis and with a lot of passion.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

7 hours ago, Kraft said:

Biden admin got cold feet

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7458627/

 

 

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

From what I read, there are several conditions on what America will allow in use of their weapons in the defense of Kharkiv. I don't think this was a "take back" but part of the initial set of restrictions.

For those of us who have been following this war as long as we have it should not be surprising that the Biden administration prefers to do give support to Ukraine incrementally.  You know, "boil the frog" personally I don't like that expression because I'm an animal lover.

Anyway, I would not be surprised to see more and more restrictions lifted in the future regarding AFU's rules of engagement using U.S. donated weapons in Russia proper. Now that the Rubicon has been crossed.

I wish to applaud the Biden administration for taking the steps in the right direction related to this issue in the war.

Edited June 1 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Man, 35th marines brigade still on left bank. Except Magyar we have units who can conduct drone recin and attacks. Our forces abandoned completely destroyed part of Krynky, which they were holding recently and moved toward Kozachi Laheri and established new positions there. I notice that Krynky has about 10 km in length. Also General Staff in own report for 28th of May made a hint we have new bridgeheads on left bank or on islands close to left bank. It was said "in area of Olhivka and Novotiahynka". But these are Ukraine-controlled villages on right bank, so new allegedle bridgeheads can be establishged in area of oppose villages through the Dnipro - Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka.  

About avanture and casualties. There are many opinions about sense of this operation. Many plaints about this operation had to be better supportes with artillery, SAM and EW protection. Many claims to former Marine Corps commander general Sodol (in 2014 he was 25th airborne brigade comamnder), who is blamed in "Zhukov methods" and complete indifference to lives of personnel. But even despite this bridgehead allowed to tie enough of Russian forces (at least new division, two naval infantry brigades/regiments and batch of territorial troop units), which could be moved to Zaporizhzia direction. Also as you could see, above, Russian losses are mauch more then Ukrainian. 

Real sense of this operation we will understand only after the war 

People who do not understand war are easily confused by the meaning of individual battles as they are happening.  They lack the depth of understanding to properly evaluate the relative impact of any one particular action.  This is not surprising because even people with a very good understanding of war sometimes miss understand how wars play out.  Kofman is the best example of this as he called almost everything wrong in the first couple of months of the war before he learned from his mistakes.

I always point to operations in WW2 for comparisons, largely because there's more familiarity with the details.  If Victor had been watching the war in June 1944 I am sure he would have concluded that Omaha Beach was a pointless disaster and yet another example of how bad the Allies were at fighting Nazi Germany.  He would then likely have concluded the entire Normandy invasion was a failure because Allied casualties were high and the Germans unbroken.

There is also a typical Human impulse to judge what has happened instead of what could have happened.  What if Ukraine never crossed the Dnepr?  OK, the Marines would have not died there, though they might very well have died somewhere else and possibly for even less obvious purpose.  But a lot of Russians would also not have died there, so where would they have gone and what would they have done if they hadn't?  They likely would have shifted to the east and might have helped erase the hard won Ukrainian gains from the unsuccessful 2023 summer offensive.

You can not look at one situation, change a variable, and then not reexamine how that variable change affects the entire war.  OK, you can, but if you do then you're immediately flagging yourself as someone who shouldn't be taken seriously.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

To be fair, that is true for most of us here who are mere armchair generals. Which usually doesn't keep us from judging military operations on a daily basis and with a lot of passion.

 

I disagree.  I am talking about the ability to understand what is going on, not having the background necessary to actually direct a war.  I can tell you for sure there is a HUGE difference between me discussing these ideas with you vs. my wife   She's very smart, but lacks the background to understand what is going on.  Victor's abilities are closer to my wife's than yours or mine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 You know, "boil the frog" personally I don't like that expression because I'm an animal lover.

That and it's not true   Some scientists proved that frogs jump out when the water gets too warm, long before it becomes deadly to them.  They might not be Einsteins, but they do understand some basic laws of physics!

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Anyway, I would not be surprised to see more and more restrictions lifted in the future regarding AFU's rules of engagement regarding U.S. donated weapons being used in Russia proper. Now that the Rubicon has been crossed.

I wish to applaud the Biden administration for taking the steps in the right direction related to this issue in the war.

Agreed.  Overall I have always believed that we need to go incrementally on the whole.  I also believe this has largely worked to the world's benefit.  However, there are tactical decisions that have been made that I think were wrong or too slow in coming.  For example, the US should have allowed Ukraine to strike air targets over Russian territory since Day 1.  ATACMS should have been in Ukraine's hands months earlier, even if restricted to recognized Ukrainian territory.  Etc.  However, pacing these policies instead of adopting them all at once is the right way to go about it.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another probable goal was to weaken Western support for Ukraine by showing that Russia can not be defeated.  The result was the West loosening up 2+ years of restrictions to allow Ukraine a wider choice of how to target Russian assets within Russia.  On top of that, the quick stall out and massive casualties suffered by Russian forces gave pro-Russians another thing to grumble about because they expected more.  It also seems a planned operation for Sumy had to be called off.

Some of the people I follow have noted that grumbling from the RU telegrams on the Kharkiv front is really starting to grow now that the elation of a grand Kharkiv pincer or even just a more reliable push has clearly been made out of of been an incredibly unrealistic expectation. Its a frequent thing with the Russian sourced stuff, they overhype a lot of things which only makes a lack of success all the more bitter. 

Perun did highlight that Lapin, the General  likely in charge on this operation is pretty much one of the worst Russian generals out there, famous for doing such general things as staging himself on the frontline directing military traffic (?) during the Belgorod incursions or going to Sumy to give his son a medal before that section of the front collapsed. Cant imagine he is going to inspire much success with the troops under his command. 

[Eddy]

9 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Anyway, I would not be surprised to see more and more restrictions lifted in the future regarding AFU's rules of engagement using U.S. donated weapons in Russia proper. Now that the Rubicon has been crossed

This one:

Quote

• Intercept Russian aviation, which launches bombs in the direction of Ukrainian territory.

is ripe for being lifted. From an escalatory point of view, the difference between shooting down a russian aircraft that is launching a bomb in the direction of Ukraine and shooting down one that is on a combat air patrol is non-existent. The result is the same, a downed russian aircraft over russian territory. That is either escalatory or it is not, regardless of why the aircraft was in the air.

Added to that, the Ukrainians really only know if a russian aircraft is about to launch a bomb in the direction of Ukraine once it has already done so. So as a restriction it is self defeating as the russian aircraft would successfully release it's bomb before the Ukrainians could attack it.

[Butschi]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I disagree.  I am talking about the ability to understand what is going on, not having the background necessary to actually direct a war.  I can tell you for sure there is a HUGE difference between me discussing these ideas with you vs. my wife   She's very smart, but lacks the background to understand what is going on.  Victor's abilities are closer to my wife's than yours or mine.

Steve

Fair enough. I for one just feel that my knowledge is somewhat inadequate compared to some people here with an actual military background. Which obviously doesn't prevent me voicing my opinion.

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Fair enough. I for one just feel that my knowledge is somewhat inadequate compared to some people here with an actual military background. Which obviously doesn't prevent me voicing my opinion.

Provided you have the information and can make pragmatic assessments based on reasoning and evidence, even armchair generals can make pretty accurate assessments / conclusions on military operations. We can be overwhelmingly pro Ukraine and still make such balanced assessments regarding both sides military operations provided we scrutinise the AFU in the same we do to the Russians (The Ukrainians can and do make mistakes that have received plenty of criticisms here and elsewhere)  

Saying that something 'failed dismally' without much of anything to back it up is both crude and in this case flies in the face of reality, at least from the information that we have access to.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Fair enough. I for one just feel that my knowledge is somewhat inadequate compared to some people here with an actual military background. Which obviously doesn't prevent me voicing my opinion.

As I have said before, there is no one left in the services who have seen a war like this one.  From the retired 3-4 stars to the young private, no one has experience in the planning nor execution of a conventional war like the one in front of us.  Students of history likely have as good a fix on what is happening as any.  Military folks can bring context in some areas because somethings are universal, but no one really knows.  Last war of this scale and intensity was Iran-Iraq (and we barely paid attention to that one).  For the West is was Korea.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's an interesting question!  One thing I have noticed is that observers are looking for secondary munitions explosions to confirm a true hit.  I saw some of that with the recent S-300/400 complex that was hit by ATACMS.

Steve

Secondary explosions we can see mostly if SP-artillery is hit. Ammo for towed howitzers often keeps nearby, so if the drone hit the gun we mostly can see just one explosion. 

Magyar on own video with FPV-strike on 2A36 guns told that is not easy to destroy heavy towed guns with FPV. You hit just the iron part and what next? Often the gun after this can be repaired. 

I watched recently reportage from UKR repairing unit, which repairs western howitzers. Some of their "patients" were coming back several times and they managed to repair it. Of course, part of howitzers come dead, but they use it for "cannibalization", some parts they made itself or order it in "garage-production"

So I think enough part of damaged and destroyed western towed howitzers can be one piece, hit several times or it can be repaired after

Edited June 1 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Fair enough. I for one just feel that my knowledge is somewhat inadequate compared to some people here with an actual military background. Which obviously doesn't prevent me voicing my opinion.

As a researcher and sim guy I've found that a military background sometimes isn't helpful or very clearly useful.  This is putting aside people who are pushing an agenda and/or are insane, like Macgregor and Ritter.

The point is that you or I don't need to be experts on anything.  What we need to be able to do is agree upon certain ways the world works, absorb information as objectively as possible, and be willing to engage in a discussion about it.  Learning from each other is important.

As ArmouredTopHat just posted (as I was writing this), putting out extreme and judgemental statements as "fact" requires more expertise to convince the status quo they are wrong.  Failing to do that likely means the person doesn't know what they are talking about.  Repeatedly failing to do so indicates the person isn't interested in reality, but instead interested in living in a bubble.  I just had to ban someone for this sort of behavior.  I don't like doing it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Secondary explosions we can see mostly if SP-artillery is hit. Ammo for towed howitzers often keeps nearby, so if the drone hit the gun we mostly can see just one explosion. 

Magyar on own video with FPV-strike on 2A36 guns told that is nor easy to destroy heavy towed guns with FPV. You hit just the iron part and what next? Often the gun after this can be repaired. 

I watched recently reportage from UKR repairing unit, which repairs western howitzers. Some of their "patients" were coming back several times and they managed to repair it. Of course, part of howitzers comes dead, but they use it for "cannibalization", some parts they made itself or order it in "garage-production"

So I think enough part of damaged and destroyed western towed howitzers can be one piece, hit several times or it can be repaired after

Absolutely!  As the saying in English goes "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence".  A lack of secondary explosions doesn't mean there was little or no damage, but secondary explosions tend to remove doubt!

I remember very well a Russian truck that looked fine from a distance, but when you got close to it you could see 10,000 holes where tungsten balls had flow through it.  That was definitely not a truck going back into service   But was it counted on the various open source counters prior to the Russian mechanic uploading the video?  Maybe not.

Steve

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Absolutely!  As the saying in English goes "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence".  A lack of secondary explosions doesn't mean there was little or no damage, but secondary explosions tend to remove doubt!

I remember very well a Russian truck that looked fine from a distance, but when you got close to it you could see 10,000 holes where tungsten balls had flow through it.  That was definitely not a truck going back into service   But was it counted on the various open source counters prior to the Russian mechanic uploading the video?  Maybe not.

Steve

I've seen today post of Russian milblogger, where he told Russian troops are incapable to shut up UKR artillery and he wondered why - because Lancets and MLRS regularly hit UKR artillery assets, but... almost no effect. Probably this is also a sign of effective usage of false guns. Really it's hard to distinguish real gun from fake if it on real position, covered with mask net and for better reliability some real powder charges can be near the gun or inside to make good "visual effect" after hit.

To be fair Russians also try to do it. There where videos they placed fake mortars, which fired with pyrotechnic charges 

[ArmouredTopHat]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I've seen today post of Russian milblogger, where he told Russian troops are incapable to shut up UKR artillery and he wondered why - because Lancets and MLRS regularly hit UKR artillery assets, but... almost no effect. Probably this is also a sign of effective usage of false guns. Really it's hard to distinguish real gun from fake if it on real position, covered with mask net and for better reliability some real powder charges can be near the gun or inside to make good "visual effect" after hit.

To be fair Russians also try to do it. There where videos they placed fake mortars, which fired with pyrotechnic charges 

I certainly think its a little slept on just how sophisticated Ukrainian decoy measures have grown during the conflict. Its taking full advantage of the...questionable optic quality on a lot of Russian spotting assets. I really do wonder just how many Lancets / other assets have been tied up hitting such targets. 

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Viko said:

The recent Russian offensive near Kharkov was carried out with virtually no armor and was very successful. Special forces units played a decisive role.

And how is that going for them now that its not just sparse TDF lacking both drones and artillery in unfortified positions opposing the numericly superior force? 

Any recent advances since the first surprise on grey zone? No? Dozens of drone videos of dying russians in some, for a change, not cratered field? Check.

The terrain even favors infantry a lot more than the east, yet it bogged down in a week and hasnt moved in 10 days.  

Edited June 1 by Kraft

[chris talpas]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Would love to know what is killing them.

Tanks?
j/k

[kimbosbread]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What we need to be able to do is agree upon certain ways the world works, absorb information as objectively as possible, and be willing to engage in a discussion about it.

Having a correct, or at least good enough model of how the world works is critical. I imagine actuaries, logistics people, operations research mathematicians and code monkeys like me who bang our keyboards and design and build distributed, eventually consistent software systems at scale have a good foundation for this kind of situation where what we observe are secondary and tertiary effects, and we then have to hypothesize what the first order thing is.

As an aside, civil engineering models traffic as a series of springs and masses and dampers in introductory traffic engineering… this is probably very applicable to military actions as well in the most basic sense.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Would love to know what is killing them.

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1d59h62/the_instant_cook_off_of_a_russian_2c19_mstas_self/

 

Twitter hates me so this is a reddit link of a Ukrainian FPV causing a Russian SPG to vaporize. This is at least one piece of proof that either the Russians are pushing their guns stupidly far forward, or that the Ukrainians have figured both the range issues for both the drones themselves, and the comms links to start hunting Russian artillery at its usual deployment ranges. Or perhaps some level of drone autonomy. If it is happening at scale the Russians won't like it very much.

[zinz]

https://materie.at/gb/der-grosse-agentenaustausch-in-mitteleuropa/

Russia had to completely reorganize their spying setup in Europe. The only remaining bases remain in Austria, Hungary and Switzerland.