chris talpas Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said: Even if RU Air Force mechanics will be able to get this SU-34 running again. The idea that a Ukrainian "James Bondko" is running around in Russia setting fires to RU aircraft in Chelyabinsk of all places, while giving out heavy metal salutes will not help morale inside the RU Air Force at all. This is priceless. For the record I had to look up where this part of Russia is. Wow you were not kidding that is deep Russia. Chelyabinsk most famous for the large meteor back in 2013 injuring over a thousand people with an explosive yield of half a megaton. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tux Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 https://www.baesystems.com/en/article/us-army-signs-agreement-with-bae-systems-for-new-m777-structures Looks like M777 production is to restart. From what we know of this war I think this is exactly the kind of kit that does need to proliferate (ideally in multiple NATO armies) ASAP. Interestingly, from other reports it sounds like they’re going to have to move significant manufacturing processes from the UK to the US (which will presumably take some time) because Barrow-in-Furness is committed to the Dreadnought submarine programme. One of the perils of being a small, densely-populated country while trying to produce wide-spectrum military equipment at any useful scale, I suppose. “First major structures” due for delivery in 2025. Better late than never, eh? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) Quote US will not support Ukraine at level of past two years – US State Department Quote The United States will not provide military assistance to Ukraine at the level of 2022-2023, because they seek to help the country build its own military-industrial base. Source: State Department spokesman Matthew Miller at a briefing, reports European Pravda Quote: "We will continue to support Ukraine… As long as it takes. That does not mean that we are going to continue to support them at the same level of military funding that we did in 2022 and 2023." I wonder how long it takes to build an "industrial base" that can produce +100 Tanks or so a month, like the russian can. On top of countless IFVs, SAM, EW, Engeneering and transportation. That doesnt get bombed by russia the second its finished. With the current 0$ budget. "[Moral] Support as long as it takes" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/5/7435942/ Edited January 5 by Kraft 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Kraft said: I wonder how long it takes to build an "industrial base" that can produce +100 Tanks or so a month, like the russian can. On top of countless IFVs, SAM, EW, Engeneering and transportation. That doesnt get bombed by russia the second its finished. With the current 0$ budget. "[Moral] Support as long as it takes" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/5/7435942/ You need to read articles like this correctly. They seem to be saying: “We will no longer support Ukraine” 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Kraft said: I wonder how long it takes to build an "industrial base" that can produce +100 Tanks or so a month, like the russian can. They don’t need to produce tanks and other big complicated vehicles; they need to produce drones and artillery/mortar ammunition and anti-drone systems. And a lot of this can be done in Ukraine’s external regions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, kimbosbread said: They don’t need to produce tanks and other big complicated vehicles; they need to produce drones and artillery/mortar ammunition and anti-drone systems. And a lot of this can be done in Ukraine’s external regions. Yes, and also camouflage suits for partisans 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: They don’t need to produce tanks and other big complicated vehicles; they need to produce drones and artillery/mortar ammunition and anti-drone systems. And a lot of this can be done in Ukraine’s external regions. IFVs are essential as ever, unless you fancy walking towards enemy positions in drone and arty space where you could drive instead. So are SAM systems, Engeneering and transportation. And as much as everyone likes to say tanks are dead, they may offer low return on investment but are still essential in breaking defensive lines, as the russians proved by thunder running the slag heap - and capturing it. But, my comment was faceutous. I do not expect these industrial complexes to be built or supported by the US, even under Biden. Its up to Europe now. Edited January 5 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Meanwhile, Russia's allies are supplying it with ballistic missiles 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Kraft said: Its up to Europe now. What interest do the EU and/or their members have in supporting a Ukrainian weapons industry instead of giving Ukraine money to buy from EU companies? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 hours ago, Kinophile said: Yes, but the sea, the moon,, wind and tides still move? Just spitballing here, but: Destroying an oil tanker's ability to control itself is asking for a gigantic environmental disaster. Sure yes, but tug boats. Maybe. If they can get there in time and are strong enough, and it's good weather, and local prevailing winds keep the ships away from shore. And nothing else is happening. Blyat,, that's a few too many IFs for me... And I for one don't envy the ocean and any nearby coastline to such a sunk ship. The idea of state sponsored piracy on the high seas is a terrible one for a large number of reasons. Time to move on. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Butschi said: What interest do the EU and/or their members have in supporting a Ukrainian weapons industry instead of giving Ukraine money to buy from EU companies? Yeah I gotta imagine Sweden is licking it’s lips at selling a bunch of Archers and CV90s and showing the world just how awesome those systems are. Same with Norway for NSM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Butschi said: What interest do the EU and/or their members have in supporting a Ukrainian weapons industry instead of giving Ukraine money to buy from EU companies? I think what he means is establishing factories in Ukraine to produce stuff that is beyond the capacity to produce in existing factories within the EU. Or at the very least creating short term facilities in Ukraine to service vehicles in use there. The latter seems like a no-brainer to me, especially because Ukraine's labor costs are lower than anywhere else in the EU IIRC and I'm sure the Ukrainian government could be convinced to offer extremely favorable tax policies. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Kraft said: And as much as everyone likes to say tanks are dead, they may offer low return on investment but are still essential in breaking defensive lines, as the russians proved by thunder running the slag heap - and capturing it. Yay…Defeatism Day! You are correct the RA has been a shining example of offensive prowess last year. They also proved that Ukraine definitely needs more really expensive heavy metal for “just one more push over the top”. Russia is barely able to push out 50+ tanks per month and most of those are being pulled from war stocks. UA defence industry should likely start with all the stuff to kill Russian tanks, IFVs and artillery at really advantageous ratios. And stop trying to beat Russia at their own game. We are going to have to figure out offensive operations, that much is true but the traditional and conventional approaches are unsound and unsustainable. We cannot play WW1 with modern mechanized forces. We are watching Russia do this and it is breaking them. The UA needs a new game at this point. Creating a Ukrainian defence industry is key to this and smart - it is a defence and security welfare state right now, suffering at western political whim. Unmanned and PGM are the likely best way to go as we have already landed on air superiority below 2000 feet, with denial above that, as essential for whatever comes next. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Butschi said: What interest do the EU and/or their members have in supporting a Ukrainian weapons industry instead of giving Ukraine money to buy from EU companies? Im talking about support, not building a MIC 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: That's now three different views of this particular battle. Each one gives us a little more information about how things unfolded, this one being the most detailed. I didn't see the FPV drone hitting that BMP in the other videos. I also didn't see how it nearly got cooked by the exploding tank and then narrowly missed hitting surface mines. Didn't change the outcome. I'm guessing the second tank was hit by a direct center mass Javelin hit, though I couldn't see any evidence of the missile itself. I don't think a mine could set off all of the tank's ammo at once like that. Even after 2 years of seeing these sorts of explosions that one stands out as impressive. Steve Could have been a shaped charge magnetic impulse mine. Whose go up through the hull and could light up the ammo. I have suspected that these minefields are a heavy mix of different mines for some time now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Creating a Ukrainian defence industry is key to this and smart - it is a defence and security welfare state right now, suffering at western political whim. This is a common excuse. We all know very well that industry located outside of Ukraine is currently simply invulnerable to Russian attacks. While any industrial enterprise on the territory of Ukraine will not last even a few months after its location is known to the Russians. The assertion that the United States will build industrial infrastructure on Ukrainian territory is nonsense. What kind of finances will they use to do this? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 18 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Yay…Defeatism Day! You are correct the RA has been a shining example of offensive prowess last year. They also proved that Ukraine definitely needs more really expensive heavy metal for “just one more push over the top”. How else would they have been able to take the heap and critically threaten the only way in and out of Avdiivka, that was serious enough to switch from "counter-offensive through winter" to "lets redeploy it all to stop russian advances"? With infantry running over open ground? There were 100% a bunch of jammers up there too, so drones are basically out in precision attacks on entranched positions. Go around it? The same dilemma exists for the UA and russia. Just russia was able to capture this position, somehow with useless tanks, which essentially ended UAs offensive indefinetely. Its nice talking about PGM and all that fancy AI drone swarm stuff. Please stay grounded with reality of what the UA has and what it doesnt and what countries in the EU could possibly supply within 1-2 years, when stuff like Taurus is off limits. I dont expect a German drone factory supplying a million suicide drones, do you? Without US support, what is going to defend the UA drone factory when all SAM systems are already insufficient to cover not even the frontline but simply the back of the country? Denouncing me for 'defeatism', when half the forum here was still in the rosy bubble saying the offensive will break through any day now and republicans are just bluffing. I remember also being talked to like that when criticising the "recon in force" of driving 15 bradleys (was that 20% of all stock at the time?) Into the same minefield. Edited January 5 by Kraft 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I never thought that I would admire the coherence and coordination of the actions of North Korea and Russia, but it seems that time has come. While opponents are paralyzed by internal problems and conflicts, it’s time to try to change the situation in their favor, and for some reason it seems to me that they will succeed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Zeleban said: This is a common excuse. We all know very well that industry located outside of Ukraine is currently simply invulnerable to Russian attacks. While any industrial enterprise on the territory of Ukraine will not last even a few months after its location is known to the Russians. The assertion that the United States will build industrial infrastructure on Ukrainian territory is nonsense. What kind of finances will they use to do this? Wait, I thought Russians were in every flower box in Europe just waiting to spring out. 1) No one said Ukrainian industry has to be located in the warzone, and 2) industry can be protected from Russian strikes - which is it, Ukraine shoots down most missiles etc. Or the second a UAS shop sets up it will be destroyed? The story seems to change to fit the day. As to money...well gee I dunno the money is really hard. I mean the US has only managed to donate $100B in a year and half (https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts). I am sure money for a Ukrainian defence industry is simply impossible. Edited January 5 by The_Capt 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, Kraft said: How else would they have been able to take the heap and critically threaten the only way in and out of Avdiivka, that was serious enough to switch from "counter-offensive through winter" to "lets redeploy it all to stop russian advances"? As opposed to infantry in IFVs getting shelacked kms out? How many times do we need to see this before we realize we need better ideas? Frankly moving over open ground on foot look and feels like a better way to go. Are we talking about this Avdiivka crisis? The one where as of yesterday afternoon after losing hundreds of vehicles the RA is poised to crush UA defence...on the same damn lines it has been sitting on for weeks? 17 minutes ago, Kraft said: There were 100% a bunch of jammers up there too, so drones are basically out in precision attacks on entranched positions. This, after endless videos of Russian soldiers getting grenade dropped and freakin chased around trees. Your deduction after all that is "Gee we really need more tanks and IFVs"? We need unmanned systems that are resistant to jamming...another thing a Ukrainian defence industry could master. 19 minutes ago, Kraft said: Its nice talking about PGM and all that fancy AI drone swarm stuff. Please stay grounded with reality of what the UA has and what it doesnt and what countries in the EU could possibly supply within 1-2 years, when stuff like Taurus is off limits. I dont expect a German drone factory supplying a million suicide drones, do you? Without US support, what is going to defend the UA drone factory when all SAM systems are already insufficient to cover not even the frontline but simply the back of the country? As opposed to what? Several thousand armored vehicles coming from German factories in the next 1-2 years? So Ukraine can move by inches. Talk about "staying grounded". We had better figure out a swarm of UAS and fast because it is likely the only way to break this deadlock. I have no problem in sustaining the conventional suite that the UA has to hold the lines but doubling-down on failures that the Ukrainian CHOD has openly declared - namely that this war is freezing for reasons other than "enough tanks"- is really dumb at this point in the war. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, The_Capt said: 2) industry can be protected from Russian strikes - which is it, Ukraine shoots down most missiles etc. Or the second a UAS shop sets up it will be destroyed? The story seems to change to fit the day. Yes, and the destroyed M-Tac equipment factory in the center of Kyiv (the most protected place in Ukraine) is evidence of this. 14 minutes ago, The_Capt said: As to money...well gee I dunno the money is really hard. I mean the US has only managed to donate $100B in a year and half (https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts). I am sure money Ukrainian defence industry is simply impossible. Yes, but what about 2024, because if I’m not mistaken, it’s already 2024 outside the window? or are we still living in 2022? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Zeleban said: Yes, and the destroyed M-Tac equipment factory in the center of Kyiv (the most protected place in Ukraine) is evidence of this. Go underground. Disperse and distribute. Go to a third party nation. FFS, I dunno, do something other than shrug your shoulders and remain fully dependent on hand-outs? Nations across history have managed to sustain a war industry while being pounded -putting the strategic means to fight back into the hands of Ukraine is a very good idea, especially if this war is going to drag on. 11 minutes ago, Zeleban said: Yes, but what about 2024, because if I’m not mistaken, it’s already 2024 outside the window? or are we still living in 2022? So "what have you done for me lately"....that is what you are going to go with? The US is somehow your own personal war valet. What is it with you and the taglines straight out of a Russian IO playbook? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Go underground. Disperse and distribute. Go to a third party nation. FFS, I dunno, do something other than shrug your shoulders and remain fully dependent on hand-outs? Nations across history have managed to sustain a war industry while being pounded -putting the strategic means to fight back into the hands of Ukraine is a very good idea, especially if this war is going to drag on. Hahah. How has your rhetoric changed? From "How dare you doubt the steadfastness of American support" to "I don't know, go underground" 13 minutes ago, The_Capt said: So "what have you done for me lately"....that is what you are going to go with? The US is somehow your own personal war valet. What is it with you and the taglines straight out of a Russian IO playbook? Hahaha 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Let me remind our European friends that the United States is not their personal manager either. Therefore, immediately demand that your governments prepare for a major war. I'm sure a big war in Europe will happen soon 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18 minutes ago, Zeleban said: Let me remind our European friends that the United States is not their personal manager either. Therefore, immediately demand that your governments prepare for a major war. I'm sure a big war in Europe will happen soon Er, what? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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