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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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I asked the guys for an energy drink, opened the map on my phone. Well, you know with points. The military will understand. I took the radio and started moving my units. I contacted Muraha (point A) and gave him an order to take everything with him to the maximum. At that moment, the commander of the Poltava platoon standing at point G approached me and asked for help to take away 200 (killed). Okay. Take off, cooperate at point A and move to point C.

When taking out 200 on these guys hits with SPG. Tom died from a shrapnel in the head. Tom was another conscript, but he volunteered to help himself. It was he who had previously shot with an ATGM. He showed no fear at all in this meat grinder. This is for those who consider themselves not born for war...

Cook received shrapnel in the lung, and Johny in the back. Another Poltava guy also died here. Two more 200 and two 300...

Having settled on point C, and giving the boys a little rest. I start telling them how to move. A typical situation is the topographic cretinism of subordinates. Knowing the area well, I begin to describe the route, indicating where to go to the gardens and which houses to pass. When they are removed from the point, I demand that they walk through the gardens on the inner side and not go outside. I am hoarse, demanding to obey my orders exactly.

The group slowly goes down. Positions at point A are immediately occupied by the bastards and they start shooting at us. With a light firefight, everyone reaches and pulls into the street between points J and P.

Meanwhile, with the help of a rope, Jackson pulls Juryst and the shot man from Poltava out of the field and places the rest of the group of evacuees. In the middle of all this, Leo reports that he sees a group of bastards near the depot. He works on them, roasting three of them. For some reason, at that moment I thought that it was these guys who shot me...


I give the order to depart from point B. Also leading them through the gardens, I shout and curse into the radio, correcting and clarifying the buildings along the route. If you think of turning your forces from a square to a line in an organized way in the middle of a battle, it's easy - go to hell.

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At one point, Leo reports from point J that an assault group has attacked them from the graveyard. Exactly the same route as we took at night. It was 15-30 meters to the house. I give the order from point P to move forward to the crew of Myrny with PKM and Murah, who has already pulled into the street. With table fire, they will turn all bad Russians into good ones in a couple of minutes. At some point, a shot comes from Leo, stop shooting, you're just shooting at us. Costs of flanking fire.

They contact me from the headquarters, by radio. They say repeat what points your people are standing on. I break down: "I ****ing call everything by points (not J and P, but those names of points that are encrypted at the headquarters). Why don't you just follow my explanations. I'm a ****ing platoon commander and I've been shot."

Then there remains the most insane task of dragging the wounded across the rail. On the one hand, next to the crossing point, I give the order to take the position of a duo with PKM Myrny and Sokol. From our side, I ask to take the position of a couple of Archaeologist people. In case of bad situations, for crossfire. Jackson appoints those who will carry the seriously wounded. The first to cross are those who can walk without help. Little by little, the medical center begins to fill up with my wounded soldiers and Poltava boys. By that time, I was almost speechless. The voice was broken into a hoarse voice. The bandage was pressing on the artery on the neck and on the broken bones, and painkillers no longer helped, but I didn't want to drink anymore in order not to lose concentration. I scraped my feet on the floor in pain.

Jackson came with the last wounded. I report to the company commander that everyone has been taken out - take them away. We

sat down with Jackson to talk. I say if the company commander demands to hold on again, take the people to the railway. It will no longer be possible to hold this position, we have neither ammunition nor water. Moreover, the counterattack failed. As it will later become known, the Raccoon car will be hit with an ATGM when it tries to drive away. Delivery of supplies by road will no longer be available. I remember trying to say something in support of Jurist, but he didn't understand where he was at all. It seems he was shot in the stomach. I thought he was going to die.

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Anyway, after some time, the company commander appeared and announced "Snake get ready, you're going to evacuate." At that moment, I was naked from the waist, grabbed the rifle and jumped out after the commander into the yard. Of course, I did not know that "buses" no longer go to the village.

From the moment I arrived for dressing after the injury, about five hours had passed at that moment. For most of this time, I directly directed the battle based on my knowledge of the terrain and people. I am sure that I am not unique in this regard, but I have not yet met more such fools in the National Guard.

It was snowing lightly. A drone lit up overhead and a tank started shooting at us. Positioned across the street behind the house, a detachment of the 1st platoon, which came as reinforcements with the company commander, was sitting there. The battalion was completely involved in this meat grinder. I leaned against the wall and began to just howl from the cold. I asked for foil from the company commander's first aid kit. He didn't find it. Ryzyk, the squad commander, began to look in his first-aid kit - it was also empty. At the same time, a tank was constantly shooting at us. Running around, he found a foil from one of the fighters, in which I happily wrapped myself.

The company commander began to tell how to go to the evacuation: "You will go to the river. You will go over her. There will be a cemetery, you go further. There you will see a bridge. You pass There, across the field, there will be an evacuee waiting at the landing.”

I don't even speak anymore, I nod and start to leave. Passing by the cemetery, I meet Horko, who was leading another squad. He asks "-How is it here? "- bloody hell. I left, I don't have the strength to talk anymore. Sorry." In the background there was a crescendo of battle sounds. The battle raged around the entire perimeter of the village. I thought about going across the river a couple of times, but the ice didn't seem reliable, and I could see water in some places. The temperature rose abnormally after the frost.

When I reached the bridge, I almost screamed. It was two rails on which one board was lying, and the handrail was broken and it was impossible to lean on it. Stepping slowly, gathering with each step, I will be late on this wonderful trail. Somewhere in the middle, the rifle pulled me to the river, and there was a desire to just let it go, but in my head flashed either fall with the weapon, or get out.

Catching my balance in the middle of this bridge, I went on. The field was flat as a pancake and covered with snow. There was no sign of where to go, so I just walked at random, hoping that it was a bunch of trees and the ****ing line of trees that the company told me about.


When I arrived at the evacuation point, of course no one was waiting for me there. I was already tired of wondering at that moment, so after climbing into the ditch, I wrapped myself tighter in the foil and sat down, staring into the void. After some time, the Nine armored personnel carrier arrived, stopping two hundred meters away, and the fighters immediately began to fall out. Realizing that it's not my evak mobile,
i staggered towards the armored personnel carrier, trying to somehow wave my hand, because I no longer had the strength to shout anything. These were additional soldiers of the 9th company, compared to the company commander, he asked how I was, I just shook my head and climbed into the armored personnel carrier. The armored personnel carrier roared and flew away. The gunner carefully took the rifle from me, proving that I would not be allowed in the hospital with a weapon.
I grimaced at every bump, but in the middle, a puppy's joy was growing. LIVE. I ****ED OUT ALIVE. The armored personnel carrier flew to Vasylkivka and I fell out near the medical post. The driver-mechanic ran up to me and with a joyful cry "Snake, I'm so glad you're alive." He slapped me on the shot shoulder blade. Moaning dully and not responding, I went to the medical center at his apology. My participation in the battle for Soledar ended there.

Explanation to the map:

Ш - the area where the Archeologist's fighters are concentrated

Д - the district where the neighboring forces retreated and entrenched themselves

E - some district was also held by our forces

Г - point G

П - point P

Ж - point J

+ - medical center

КОНТРАТАКА КРАКЕНА - Kraken unit counterattack

ЕВАКУАЦІЙНИЙ ШЛЯХ - Evacuation path

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1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Toblerone is 3rd.

https://swissfood.store/top-10-swiss-chocolate-brands/

 

You probably remember the difference in Nutella for East and West markets?

Edited by Ales Dvorak
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5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Russia is already conscripting Ukrainians on the occupied territories. Why would that be any different on any newly occupied territories?

...

Also, all the NATO stuff is nice, as long as NATO holds. Treaties are cool, but Czechoslovakia had a lot of treaties at the beginning of 1938. Not so much by the end. We will have to see whether we would see repeat of that situation for the Baltic states, if Russia isn't stopped well enough.

The major difference is who those Ukrainians are and how they see themselves.  DNR and LNR saw themselves as Russian before this war and were fine with supporting Russian occupation since 2014.  This is why we saw nearly 40k sign up from these regions to fight (and die).  There has been very limited resistant in the pre-2022 occupied regions.  

We have seen partisan resistance in the newly occupied regions from day 1 (see ISW maps).  I have no doubt some Ukrainians have been pushed into service in these regions, no one has posted estimates but given the Russian way of war it is no doubt a certainty.  However, even if Russia takes over all Ukraine (which it won’t), it does not immediately gain a 40M manpower pool to draw from.  And those that it does force into service make pretty much the worst types of troops to roll into an offensive operation in the Baltics.  

The idea that hardened and western trained UA are going to roll over en masse is extremely dubious.  First off, Clausewitz missed an extremely important principle - largely because he was focused solely on the macro level - all war is personal.  Battle hardened troops in the UA would likely leave Ukraine and try to form resistance groups to go back into Ukraine (and we would support them).  Why?  Because having family and friends killed by Russia is something a human being does not forget easily.  Veteran units would dissolve entirely or reform into resistance.  The Ukrainian government would likely form in absentia in another state - we know this because it was offered at the beginning of this war.

So, sure the RA is going to push cannon fodder where it can but it also has to managed a newly acquired territory filled with really PO’d people who were armed to the teeth by the west over 2 years.  So the ideas that complete UA formations will simply re-roll and spearhead an invasion of Baltics states is frankly nonsense.  LNR and DPR clearly are not on aboard with the rest of Ukraine with respect to the Russian question, and frankly neither is Crimea.  This was a potential problem we discussed at length in the event they were liberated and re-taken by Ukraine.  The situation could be reversed with veterans who fought for Russia now making up an insurgency supported by Russia across the border.

Comparisons with the Germans and occupied region formations during WW2 are not well aligned. In many cases people joined up with the Germans to fight the Soviet Union who had been more oppressive than the German regime - we had one in Parliament last year (whoops).  These divisions were rarely (and I am struggling to find an example) fully formed and simply switched sides.  For them war as personal against the Allies, Soviet Union and Stalin in particular.  Others were driven by colonial and local impulses, such as the Balkans who really did not care who they worked for so long as they got to kill the right neighbour.

Regardless, the entire conversation while interesting is never going to see the light of day in reality.  Or at least it is going to take major strategic and political shifts.  If NATO were to fall apart and withdrew from the Baltic states in ten years, well we have a new game.  Russia is not going to “win” this war unless the west not only withdraws support but pretty much works against Ukraine - which makes little sense.  And Russia gets a major inject from China, that frankly in this context would also not make any sense for them.  My sense is that unless the UA can break this deadlock, somehow, (and more traditional conventional hardware is likely not going to do it) we are looking at a Korean Peninsula situation.

But this is not over yet. Russia has demonstrated a baffling ability to engineer its own defeats, so let’s not write this one as over just yet.  There will likely be a 2024 offensive.  As I have mentioned several times war is an exercise in competitive learning as much as it is anything else.  We will see if the UA has figured this puzzle out.  If they can break the Russian defensive line and break out, well all bets are off.

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41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

DNR and LNR saw themselves as Russian before this war and were fine with supporting Russian occupation since 2014.  This is why we saw nearly 40k sign up from these regions to fight (and die).  There has been very limited resistant in the pre-2022 occupied regions.  

 

Residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions consider themselves Russian no more than residents of the Kharkov and Zaporozhye or Odessa regions. Think back to 2014. The flags of Russia and the Kharkov People's Republic hung over Kharkov at that time, and the Kharkov City Hall was captured by pro-Russian militants. Nevertheless, in 2014, security forces were able to crush the protests in Kharkov.

I assure you that the residents of the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Lugansk regions have no more desire to fight against Ukraine than the residents of the Dnepropetrovsk or Nikolaev regions under Ukrainian rule. In the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, from 2014 to this day, the same guerrilla war has been waged as in the Zaporozhye or Kherson regions. Look at the number of people executed in the DPR for treason.

It’s just that Putin has all the necessary mechanisms in the territory under his control to force anyone to do anything. 

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Updated information of civilian victims after yesterday strike:

39 killed, 159 wounded. 

Number of dead in Kyiv increased to 16 (because of the 16th body was found about a hour ago, total number of death in Ukriane can be 40 so far). This is largest number of death in Kyiv throughout the war. 

Some photos and videos of yesterday strikes

Kyiv (16 dead). Burning fragments of shot down missile hit the tall building. It like a God's hand - the building still under construction

Zaporizhzhia (9 dead)

image.png.df614de5435bb8f748272dc3f38e9065.png

Dnipro (6 dead)

Shopping mall hit directly

image.thumb.png.b2b3d8fafb0a9ccad76d0759b4e2e661.png

... and maternity hospital (fortunately close impact, only four light wounded)

image.png.d7e37af0a7bb0782885f3286bb5c3b5b.png

Odesa (4 dead)

image.png.0b58b93f2fd59aa7a8d1f83dfbc7e95b.png

Kharkiv (3 dead). This city got a sad record - Total a dozen of S-300 missiles from Belgorod and several Kh-22/Iskander-M hit multiple zones, mostly industrual areas. 

image.thumb.png.ff3a7def781f7ed73aaf72f70fdadf36.png

Konotop, Sumy oblast (2 dead)

image.thumb.png.adaf09a04707a22503f687c3ac039d03.png

L'viv (1 dead)

image.thumb.png.5dd517df6f0825bbbce571226a8555a1.png

Kyiv, Odesa and Dnipro cities announced a day of mourning.

image.png

Edited by Haiduk
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6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions consider themselves Russian no more than residents of the Kharkov and Zaporozhye or Odessa regions. Think back to 2014. The flags of Russia and the Kharkov People's Republic hung over Kharkov at that time, and the Kharkov City Hall was captured by pro-Russian militants. Nevertheless, in 2014, security forces were able to crush the protests in Kharkov.

I assure you that the residents of the Russian-occupied Donetsk and Lugansk regions have no more desire to fight against Ukraine than the residents of the Dnepropetrovsk or Nikolaev regions under Ukrainian rule. In the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, from 2014 to this day, the same guerrilla war has been waged as in the Zaporozhye or Kherson regions. Look at the number of people executed in the DPR for treason.

It’s just that Putin has all the necessary mechanisms in the territory under his control to force anyone to do anything. 

Ok.  Given your previous rants, you will excuse me if I do not take you as an authority in this area no matter your postal code.  I am just going to leave this one here and let people read for themselves:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic

Multiple sides of the story I am sure, but a region that not only promoted and voted for Viktor Yanukovych - who holds a lot of responsibility for being a Russian stooge and triggering a lot of the mess in 2014.  I mean this guy was the Homer Simpson of Russian stooges if there ever was one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yanukism

The situation appears to be "complex".

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15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok.  Given your previous rants, you will excuse me if I do not take you as an authority in this area no matter your postal code.  I am just going to leave this one here and let people read for themselves:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic

Multiple sides of the story I am sure, but a region that not only promoted and voted for Viktor Yanukovych - who holds a lot of responsibility for being a Russian stooge and triggering a lot of the mess in 2014.  I mean this guy was the Homer Simpson of Russian stooges if there ever was one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yanukism

The situation appears to be "complex".

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Президентские_выборы_на_Украине_(2010)

Unfortunately, I cannot post a separate image of the 2010 election results. Therefore, I am posting a link to a Wikipedia article with the results. The graphs clearly show which areas Yanukovych won in 2010. In addition to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as well as Crimea, it includes the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions. The assertion that Yanukovych came to power thanks to the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions is absurd. 

 

It was chosen by the majority of residents of Ukraine.

By the way, his closest competitor at that time was Yulia Tymoshenko, also a very pro-Russian politician. I can say that before the events of 2014, the majority of Ukrainians were pro-Russian

Edited by Zeleban
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What I can find online about the 2010 elections at least tends to describe it as a successful democratic election - international observers and all  not finding anything too untoward unlike his previous attempt  back in 2004  . What happened after the election and the direction that Yanukovych took Ukraine - leading up to the events of 2014 is another matter . He was however the democratically elected President of Ukraine at the time .

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Well... Citizens of Belgorod joyfully write a gloating posts, when S-300/S-400 from their city outskirts were launching on Kharkiv. Now Belgorod received the second, more tough strike since last night. Officially 14 citizens of Belgorod were killed (among them two kids), 108 were wounded.

The center of Belforod is in 58-60 km from northern Kharkiv outskirts and in 40-45 km from the border area. Somebody say this is "Russian false flag attack". I doubt (if this wasn't Grad). Let they feel the same that feel citizens of Kharkiv almost each week two uears so far and citizens of other Ukrainian cities.

Pilots of Allied bombers without hesitattion were pushing buttons to drop heavy bombs of German cities. This is a war for annihilation. To hell hypocritic humanity. Russian cities have to look like Gaza after all these two years, maybe this washed remains of their brain back. No mercy

Belgorod several hours ago

image.png.1dc443804ce2d9323fb44a6ba3866ae8.png

Mmmm... Do you scream? Scared? Really? Not so joyfully now?

Russian MoD made official statement, claiming Belgorod was shelled with two "Vil'kha" missiles and MLRS "Vampire" rockets (eeee.... Vampire has 20 km of range, are you kidding?). As if most of missiles were intercepted by AD. So, according to Russian logic in deaths of Belgorod citizens local AD is guilted. If they didn't intercet missiles, its fragments would not be fall on civilains and just peacefully hit military objects! 

image.png.b2346465303337dfbd82e4944a1c1407.png

Edited by Haiduk
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10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Президентские_выборы_на_Украине_(2010)

Unfortunately, I cannot post a separate image of the 2010 election results. Therefore, I am posting a link to a Wikipedia article with the results. The graphs clearly show which areas Yanukovych won in 2010. In addition to the Donetsk and Lugansk regions as well as Crimea, it includes the Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions. The assertion that Yanukovych came to power thanks to the residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions is absurd. 

 

It was chosen by the majority of residents of Ukraine.

By the way, his closest competitor at that time was Yulia Tymoshenko, also a very pro-Russian politician. I can say that before the events of 2014, the majority of Ukrainians were pro-Russian

Ah, so which is it then?  A weak Ukraine barely holding it together, ready to jump into Russian arms without hesitation and turn on the West.  Or a strong entirely united nation standing against Russian aggression.  Seems to shift based on which day of the week it is.

I am sorry but you pissed away any credibility you had left about three pages ago.  I strongly suggest everyone go out and do their own research. 

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10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I can say that before the events of 2014, the majority of Ukrainians were pro-Russian

Absurd. They were too enough tolerant to Russia as in a memory of common culrure post-Soviet space, but obviously most of them didn't want to hear that Ukraine have to be part of Russia. And 2014 became of the year when this tolerance cracked down. And since 24th Feb I think we have no return point. I hope

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1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Ah, so which is it then?  A weak Ukraine barely holding it together, ready to jump into Russian arms without hesitation and turn on the West.  Or a strong entirely united nation standing against Russian aggression.  Seems to shift based on which day of the week it is.

I am sorry but you pissed away any credibility you had left about three pages ago.  I strongly suggest everyone go out and do their own research. 

I don't care about my authority on this forum. It is much more important that the participants of this forum are not captive of their own echo chamber about the “bad” residents of Crimea and the Donetsk regions and the “good” residents of the rest of Ukraine. After Russian troops occupy a territory, FSB units arrive at that territory and identify the most anti-Russian residents of the area based on their activities on the Internet. After which torture, persecution and execution of such persons begin. The rest of the residents are well aware of the cruelty of the Russians and do not dare to oppose them. This is how it was in Donetsk, this is how it was in Kherson, this is how it will be in other European cities after the fall of Ukraine

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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Absurd. They were too enough tolerant to Russia as in a memory of common culrure post-Soviet space, but obviously most of them didn't want to hear that Ukraine have to be part of Russia. And 2014 became of the year when this tolerance cracked down. And since 24th Feb I think we have no return point. I hope

I'm talking about myself and other residents of Krivoy Rog. All my friends and relatives supported Russia until 2014.

 

That is, in your opinion, Yanukovych did not come to power as a result of fair elections and the full support of Ukrainians?

Edited by Zeleban
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1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

I don't care about my authority on this forum. It is much more important that the participants of this forum are not captive of their own echo chamber about the “bad” residents of Crimea and the Donetsk regions and the “good” residents of the rest of Ukraine. After Russian troops occupy a territory, FSB units arrive at that territory and identify the most anti-Russian residents of the area based on their activities on the Internet. After which torture, persecution and execution of such persons begin. The rest of the residents are well aware of the cruelty of the Russians and do not dare to oppose them. This is how it was in Donetsk, this is how it was in Kherson, this is how it will be in other European cities after the fall of Ukraine

You just spent ink telling us how "they are all bad" and going to lose.  You have spent enormous effort trying to build that echo chamber for whatever reason.  And now you expect us to accept this new narrative.  I am sorry to me it sounds a lot like you are simply making this stuff up.

I have zero doubt Russia has been oppressing and conscripting...hell they have not even been subtle about it.  I also have zero doubts that there are groups and communities that are on-side with the Russians and see themselves as more Russian than Ukrainian...or perhaps a mix of both.  I also think that it is not a stretch to consider that out of those tens of thousands of LNR and DPR troops that a fair number were only fighting for their own homes and no greater Russian cause.

As to them universally opposing any and all Russian overtures...I call BS.  There is enough evidence of collusion and support for Russian agendas in these regions to sow seeds of doubt. 

Of course none of this matters, right?  Because according to you Ukraine is going to lose the war entirely and embrace Russia. 

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14 minutes ago, keas66 said:

What I can find online about the 2010 elections at least tends to describe it as a successful democratic election - international observers and all  not finding anything too untoward unlike his previous attempt  back in 2004  . What happened after the election and the direction that Yanukovych took Ukraine - leading up to the events of 2014 is another matter . He was however the democratically elected President of Ukraine at the time .

This is not the whole story.  Russian influence over the politicians and the political structures never ceased after the fall of the Soviet Union.  Therefore, for almost 20 years Russia was able to shape the 2010 elections to favor its agenda.  When Yanukovych failed to follow the will of the people (reforms and Westward embrace) this control became far more obvious.  It wasn't new, it was always there.

Therefore, it is correct to say that Yanucovych was the winner of a largely democratic election set up by Russia to benefit Russia. 

Steve

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