How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

22 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Drone v Drone

I think I've been advocating nets (and even just hanging lines, like used to keep birds in an aviary) since we started talking about anti-drone things.  All you need to do is foul the props and they'll fall, or at least become uncontrollable.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

Closer and closer to slaughterbots.

Those who enjoy war porn (i've had my fill) will be engaged by the bradley shooting up the town - but wait for the end where the drone flies into the shelter entrance and blows it up. So make that a small swarm with some autonomy, and fly instead through the shelter with communications relay drone remaining at each corner to allow the mini-swarm to act as a unit and send BDA back to headquarters.  Then the shelter isn't a shelter, it's a pre-dug graveyard.

This is right around the corner.  With the current rate of AI development and drone innovation (driven by the Russo-Ukraine war) I say eighteen months or so.

Can't tell you how glad I am to be living in a mostly-peaceful country with a friendly neighbour.

 

M1 Candygram

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I think I've been advocating nets (and even just hanging lines, like used to keep birds in an aviary) since we started talking about anti-drone things.  All you need to do is foul the props and they'll fall, or at least become uncontrollable.

If you combined them in with cam nets we could be onto something.  Of course they could just put bigger grenades and frag through the net but at least the damn things won’t fly directly into a bunker.  Or at least until they start one-two punching in pairs.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If you combined them in with cam nets we could be onto something.  Of course they could just put bigger grenades and frag through the net but at least the damn things won’t fly directly into a bunker.  Or at least until they start one-two punching in pairs.

We have seen extensive use of nets and chain link fencing around artillery positions, in particular.  They do work, provided there's no gaps.  We've all seen how nimble drones can be when they want to.

The counter to the nets is pretty simple.  Existing grenade based kamikaze drones that are controller detonated.  Fly one of those into the net, detonate, and chances are there's now a big hole in the net for a FPV drone to sail right through.  Wouldn't even have to be immediately following as it would take the crew some time to patch the gap.  Especially if they took casualties when the grenade detonated. 

In fact, the breaching grenade could damage critical systems on whatever is being protected, such as tires, hydraulic lines, optics, sensors, etc.  Might not put whatever it is out of action for long, but the disruption could be critical to some sort of tactical action.

Steve

[Zeleban]

52 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Political dynamite…elections. And all that jazz:

“A senior Ukrainian military officer with deep ties to the country’s intelligence services played a central role in the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline last year, according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation. The officer’s role provides the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership to a controversial act of sabotage that has spawned multiple criminal investigations and that U.S. and Western officials have called a dangerous attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure.” 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/

 

 

It is very interesting how a former intelligence officer, while in prison, managed to organize and carry out one of the most complex operations of our time. Despite the fact that he had only a few childishly naive failed operations.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

It is very interesting how a former intelligence officer, while in prison, managed to organize and carry out one of the most complex operations of our time. Despite the fact that he had only a few childishly naive failed operations.

Yeah this is all completely unconvincing.

Edited November 11, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We have seen extensive use of nets and chain link fencing around artillery positions, in particular.  They do work, provided there's no gaps.  We've all seen how nimble drones can be when they want to.

The counter to the nets is pretty simple.  Existing grenade based kamikaze drones that are controller detonated.  Fly one of those into the net, detonate, and chances are there's now a big hole in the net for a FPV drone to sail right through.  Wouldn't even have to be immediately following as it would take the crew some time to patch the gap.  Especially if they took casualties when the grenade detonated. 

In fact, the breaching grenade could damage critical systems on whatever is being protected, such as tires, hydraulic lines, optics, sensors, etc.  Might not put whatever it is out of action for long, but the disruption could be critical to some sort of tactical action.

Steve

Totally unbelievable.  Ten years ago this all would be science fiction.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Totally unbelievable.  Ten years ago this all would be science fiction.

As someone who has been studying the progression of this stuff CLOSELY for professional and personal curiosity reasons, I can say that most science fiction is less imaginative than what we're seeing now.

As much as I like an alien invasion movie or book just like the next (smart and interesting) person, the bulk of what I've consumed over the years falls back on cold war concepts of warfare.  Only exceptionally innovative writers, such as Gibson and Brinn, have really examined where all this tech is headed.

It's a pet peeve of mine, in fact, but I do understand it.  The most likely alien invasion would be wave upon wave of viruses and fungi that are genetically aimed at killing or sterilizing Humans.  The thought of F-16s being able to dogfight with alien fighter craft makes for much better cinema, but that's about as realistic as the Red Barron taking on a F-22 and coming out ahead.

Steve

[Haiduk]

UKR drone damaged Russian tank with dropped AGL grenade on full speed and likely disabled it. When other tank arrived to tow own comrade, next dropped grenade barely killed tank gunner, but probablly HEAT charge penetrated turret top armor through gunner sight and slightly wounded gunner in leg - he spent too much time to close the hatch. But gunner sight obviously was damaged by explosion

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Totally unbelievable.  Ten years ago this all would be science fiction.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03267-0

We haven't seen anything yet, this new IBM chip architecture is a huge advance in running AI code efficiently. Up twenty five times less power in some applications. They are talking about self driving cars, but that is effectively identical to a drone autopilot. I say this every three days, but we haven't seen anything yet.

[Jiggathebauce]

 

Seems to me that Ukraine could make a hole for Russians to retreat through- if they soften up the barrier troops enough to where they can't enforce compliance

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR drone damaged Russian tank with dropped AGL grenade on full speed and likely disabled it. When other tank arrived to tow own comrade, next dropped grenade barely killed tank gunner, but probablly HEAT charge penetrated turret top armor through gunner sight and slightly wounded gunner in leg - he spent too much time to close the hatch. But gunner sight obviously was damaged by explosion

 

 

I agree with the commentary with the video... that has got to be the most incredibly aimed grenade drop ever!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

 

Seems to me that Ukraine could make a hole for Russians to retreat through- if they soften up the barrier troops enough to where they can't enforce compliance

Imagine Ukrainian troops making a deal with frontline Russians "hey, if you tell us where the barrier units are, we'll take care of those so you can go home".

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian TG confirms 810th naval infantry brigade was hastly moved to Krynky area from second line of Zaporizhzia front (brigade only some time ago was moved to more calm place after heavy battles). During this short time fighting brigade already had a time to lost own chief of the staff colonel Yan Sukhanov, he died from wounds in hospital in Moscow.

 

PS.
As addition, commander of signal company of 810th naval infantry brigade lieutenant Vladimir Toropov was killed on 29th of October. Looks like command point of brigade was hit. Interesting signal company commander is a duty for senior lieutenant as minimum, but this guy on last photo had a shoulder straps of warrant officer. Obviously a consequenses of losses in officer staff. Guy was urgently promoted to officer to got this duty 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

              Okay, to distract everyone from conspiracy theories, I’ll translate a very interesting article by a Ukrainian mortarman about his participation in the Kherson offensive. The article gives an understanding of the offensive tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

              According to my personal belief, the defense forces in our area switched to active assaults in the second half of August.
              It all started with the fact that our battalion was removed from its position and another battalion took its place. We moved a little, regrouped.

                 I was infinitely "lucky" and at that moment two commanders of the unit were dismissed from the unit. That's probably why they said to me: "Congratulations, you're the platoon commander? You'll provide people with information, you'll control it." The last thing I wanted was for someone to die under my command.
              At the briefing, everything looked optimistic and wild at the same time. I understood that it was a high bet that the enemy would run away. Considering the fact that we had both 120 and 82 mortars, I was put in command of 82. Because they have to be much closer to the contact line. And the line, in turn, will move. So the guys will have to constantly move to get to the targets. When I came and outlined to them the task that was set for me, in their eyes you could clearly read something like: "what are you, stupid!?".

           The task was as follows. While the long-range artillery was working on the enemy's artillery, the forces of the battalion and several guns of the brigade had to destroy the enemy and press them to the ground so that our infantry could storm. In particular, we had to suppress the enemy's machine gun units.

             Everything was supposed to happen like this: Our infantry loaded on the armor and went bluntly (the effect of surprise, quickly, ammunition on the armor) to the enemy positions. At that time, the artillery works against the enemy (machine guns, ATGMs, automatic grenade launchers) preventing our infantry from being destroyed.

              When it was clear from the drone that our infantrymen were approaching the nearest enemy positions, we shifted our fire to their next positions and pressed them to the ground. In order to immediately reach the planned targets, we had to drive very, very close to the contact line. So close to where they used to walk at night or run if it was daytime. At that moment, I explained to the guys that this must be done, because if we do not suppress machine guns, grenade launchers and ATGMs, then our guys in armor will simply be destroyed. Was I scared? Yes. Only fools are not afraid. I explained the work to everyone as much as possible, we determined in advance the points from which we would shoot, how, where and when to move.

              The battle began: first the artillery worked, Grad's, then a couple of tanks rolled out, they hit the enemy's position with direct fire. Since the enemy was very busy with tanks, we drove into the first line of fire almost unimpeded.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

             We spread out, raised the drone. Yes, we corrected ourselves so as not to clog the radio channel with chatter. There were no conversations on the radio. A minimum and only on business. Everyone knew what to do and so on.

              We barely had time to throw a couple of mines to hit the targets, and armor and infantry rushed past us. The heart was pounding. The tanks have already finished their work and left. Our infantry was approaching enemy positions, we (mortar battery), AGS calculations, fuel... Everyone was shooting at the enemy.

But the enemy also started shooting at us. The first shell flew 100 meters from us, the guys immediately looked at me. Were they shooting at us? Maybe. But was it possible to drop everything and hide? No. I began to shout that this is not our fault, that the enemy simply missed and will now redirect.

And for everyone to immediately continue shooting. At the same time, I detected explosions and corrected them. It was clear that they would not be able to work on all our fire means at the same time. And therefore it was necessary to shoot as much as possible.

              There was complete chaos around. Everyone and everything was shooting. Projectiles were flying, everything was exploding, and the infantry reported that they were landing on enemy positions. At that moment, we were already moving to the next positions and shooting there. Ammunition consumption was crazy, but it looks like our plan worked.

The enemy threw a couple more shells at us and switched to infantry. After assessing the available ammunition, I asked the guys to bring us more. Ours secured new positions, there was a couple of minutes of rest before the next attempt. It was terribly hot.

              Later, we received a command to change our position even closer. We piled into pickup trucks and drove in the direction of the front. Our next fire was almost at the place where "zero" was literally just recently ("zero" - the closest position to the enemy).

              I was thinking only one thing while driving. F**k this platoon, f**k this army. Why am I not on the 120th mortar, which is far from the front. But I said out loud that the enemy had fallen and everything was going well for us. The people had to be encouraged

              During that day, we changed positions many times, and even then almost all of our positions were where the enemy had been before. That is, the front was moving. And we also buried the suspension on the car. Armored vests, sleeping bags, sometimes automatic weapons, RPGs, the bodies of the occupiers were lying in the forest strips...

              But at some point we could no longer move on. Everyone stayed where they were. Shells were constantly flying, during the day we took significant hits from enemy artillery a couple of times. They shot well and did not spare the projectiles at all.

              We spent the night in the forest, we were given ammunition and food. In the morning, they went to look for new firing positions and the road. It was necessary to make sure that the road was not mined. We immediately prepared our firing positions near the holes that the enemy once dug.

              We came close to Ternovi Pody. We could not go further. Why? You will understand when I write the next thread. It was the end of August, beginning of September. Then the total pressing of the enemy with artillery began. Everyone was shooting and from everything. There were days when we fired 100+ mines per day from one mortar.

[Zeleban]

              On one fine day, I was concussed when an enemy shell exploded literally a meter from a hole into which I jumped at the last moment. Then another stone flew into my ribs and I thought with relief that now I was wounded and would go to rest.

              But it was just a stone, and all I got was a very bad headache for the next few months. When the very active phase of the assault ended, the service was established, then I finally transferred to Petrichenko's gang to fly the Mavic. How it was and what it cost is a separate story.

              It was there that we encountered the moment when the enemy left Kherson. Yes, the enemy left in November. But in my opinion, these were the first steps towards them leaving. In the next thread, I will tell how they left, how we entered the villages, how I climbed the enemy's positions and how I almost died.

              Were there any wild moments? So. Were there any problems? So. But let me tell you about them after the war. Not to go storming Pisky now.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Zeleban

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

              On one fine day, I was concussed when an enemy shell exploded literally a meter from a hole into which I jumped at the last moment. Then another stone flew into my ribs and I thought with relief that now I was wounded and would go to rest.

              But it was just a stone, and all I got was a very bad headache for the next few months. When the very active phase of the assault ended, the service was established, then I finally transferred to Petrichenko's gang to fly the Mavic. How it was and what it cost is a separate story.

              It was there that we encountered the moment when the enemy left Kherson. Yes, the enemy left in November. But in my opinion, these were the first steps towards them leaving. In the next thread, I will tell how they left, how we entered the villages, how I climbed the enemy's positions and how I almost died.

              Were there any wild moments? So. Were there any problems? So. But let me tell you about them after the war. Not to go storming Pisky now.

 

 

This is example of good planning and lucky development. But somebody will tell after the war about Davydiv Brid...

Maybe best picture to Kherson liberation Day

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

We have seen extensive use of nets and chain link fencing around artillery positions, in particular.  They do work, provided there's no gaps.  We've all seen how nimble drones can be when they want to.

The counter to the nets is pretty simple.  Existing grenade based kamikaze drones that are controller detonated.  Fly one of those into the net, detonate, and chances are there's now a big hole in the net for a FPV drone to sail right through.  Wouldn't even have to be immediately following as it would take the crew some time to patch the gap.  Especially if they took casualties when the grenade detonated. 

In fact, the breaching grenade could damage critical systems on whatever is being protected, such as tires, hydraulic lines, optics, sensors, etc.  Might not put whatever it is out of action for long, but the disruption could be critical to some sort of tactical action.

Steve

Yes - for static close-by nets, that's definitely an issue.  I'm thinking more deployable nets on the anti-drone-drones to entangle and crash the explody drones far from their targets (people have even done shotgun shells that deploy nets, gladiator style).  Then they can explode all they want with minimal effect.  They can be fairly low mass relative to an explody thing, and releasable, so that the anti-drone-drone can carry several and take out multiple drones before it's spent or needs a refill if it's reusable.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

As someone who has been studying the progression of this stuff CLOSELY for professional and personal curiosity reasons, I can say that most science fiction is less imaginative than what we're seeing now.

As much as I like an alien invasion movie or book just like the next (smart and interesting) person, the bulk of what I've consumed over the years falls back on cold war concepts of warfare.  Only exceptionally innovative writers, such as Gibson and Brinn, have really examined where all this tech is headed.

It's a pet peeve of mine, in fact, but I do understand it.  The most likely alien invasion would be wave upon wave of viruses and fungi that are genetically aimed at killing or sterilizing Humans.  The thought of F-16s being able to dogfight with alien fighter craft makes for much better cinema, but that's about as realistic as the Red Barron taking on a F-22 and coming out ahead.

Steve

Plus the aliens have to travel really, really, really far, so it's a major pain to bring a lot of mass.

There was a paper in PNAS (open sources, so anybody can read it) a couple years ago that estimated that the total mass of coronavirus at the time (around peak pandemic) was less than 10 kg. That's not a typo. Ten.  And that was an upper limit. 10 kg of virus particles on the whole planet, distributed among all the people on earth, caused a huge disruption to human society.  And the aliens wouldn't even have to deliver 10 kg - the vast majority of those 10 kg are virus particles that people manufactured themselves from the instructions provided by their infections.

I've been advocating for a while that all these people with the idea that we'll send people to other stars is silly.  It's more effective to send E coli, or a mixture of various bacteria that can survive a range of conditions.  Eventually they'll evolve into something that's customized to wherever it lands, and if it evolves enough to be able to read, you make sure there were a bunch of indestructible "books" (information storage devices) sent along with it so they don't have to reinvent physics and chemistry.

[Haiduk]

M882 ARV resqued from battlefield damaged Bradley. Likely this was under fire, because M882 got some fragments at side hull. But crew completed own mission - Bradley soon will be in "hospital" and return to beat Ruissians again. 

In previous days in Stepove area near Avdivka five Bradleys were damaged.

 

[Haiduk]

New video of upgraded Lancet attacking Bradley in side hull probably with EFP type HEAT, but no visible effect after the strike 

 

[Haiduk]

Twitter RUMINT from our militaries

- we lost one Abrams even without battle. During the march the tank fell down from bridge and broke the gun

- during recent ballistic strike on Dnipropetrovsk oblast (of Dnipro city) NASAMS launcher area deploying was hit (result unknown). Launcher stood on one place more than a week. 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Carolus]

 

Missile got GPS jammed?

 

[Haiduk]

The report from Kherson oblast, Krynky bridgehead. Russians about hour ago dropped many heavy gliding bombs, looks like of heavy calibers FAB-1500 UMPK or KAB-1500. Explosions were too heavy for usual 250/500 kg bombs. Bombs impacted in radius more than 1 km around Krynky, hitting the village, islands, right bank

 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Haiduk