How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Teufel]

Not heard even speculations about such discussions anywhere. The 21st mechanized “Swedish” brigade was trained for 6 weeks in Sweden without anyone knowing until training was finished. Ministry of Defense publicized the training on the website after concluding.

These Swedes some sly and sneaky bastards, wouldn’t surprise me if this “already started” been ongoing for some time. The SAAB 39 Griffin is available in around 100-120 units across friendly countries of Sweden, Czech Republic and the UK. Let’s exclude South Africa, Brazil and Hungry that also have these but unlikely to transfer to Ukraine.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

For those interested in closer look at the “best non stealth fighter in the World”.

Using highways and roads as airfields to operate from sounds quite interesting.

Edit: Not to forget, as stated towards end of video, the very advanced EW suite - or in practice strong capabilities of suppression or destruction of enemy air defenses.

Anyhow, sticking to engineering of ground vehicles. Someone more knowledgeable of these machines can fill in more gaps and details.

Edited August 19, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

Ninjad, but )))

Looks like Ukraine has plan B about fighter jets due to the question of F-16 supply fell by a victim of political games. 

During today's visit of president Zelenskiy to Sweden was made a statement that several Ukrianian pilots already test JAS-39 Grippen jets. Agreement took place in May. Unknown either Grippens will appear in UKR AF or not or if appear, then when, but anyway this is good alternative of F-16.

I like Gripen, even despite it has only one engine. This jet was designed with opportunity of highway take off and "outdoor" standing and maintenance - this is very suitable for us. 

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-pilots-test-swedish-jas-39-gripen-fighter-aircraft/

Also Zelenskiy told Ukriane and Sweden will find a solution about repair and producing of CV90 IFV in Ukraine. The declaration was signed. It's good choise too, because Ukraine should have alternative to USA supply, which depends on political course and current interests of White House master and his administration.  

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Not heard even speculations about such discussions anywhere. The 21st mechanized “Swedish” brigade was trained for 6 weeks in Sweden without anyone knowing until training was finished. Ministry of Defense publicized the training on the website after concluding.

These Swedes some sly and sneaky bastards, wouldn’t surprise me if this “already started” been ongoing for some time. The SAAB 39 Griffin is available in around 100-120 units across friendly countries of Sweden, Czech Republic and the UK. Let’s exclude South Africa, Brazil and Hungry that also have these but unlikely to transfer to Ukraine.

Swedes for the win!

[Haiduk]

Bradley launches TOW

... And NV sight of Bradley

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR troops in Robotyne.

One account, close to pro-UKR Chechen battalion, fighting on neighbour direction toward Polohy, wrote as if Robotyne already taken by UKR forces, but officially this will be recogized only through several days. But no other confirmations.

 

[Teufel]

Steve had some suggestions few pages back about “bomber drones” loaded with different types of explosives depending on targets.

@Battlefront.com Could you please ask that crystal ball of yours about next weeks Mega Jackpot numbers?

Edited August 19, 2023 by Teufel

[dan/california]

No one is getting the chance to develop an urgent family emergency in one of the stans.

[Teufel]

Those retreating from Urozhaine receiving “welcome gift” at Statomlynivka.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Swedes for the win!

Time to go to IKEA to pick up some Swedish meatballs, and re-watch some Dolph Lundgren movies.

You rock Sweden!

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

No one is getting the chance to develop an urgent family emergency in one of the stans.

Man offers to everybody, who will sign contract 195 000 Ru after signing + 200 000 Ru from charity fund "Spiritual legacy" and then 200 000 monthly in SVO zone. This is roughly 3950 $ of one-time payment  and  then 2000 $ monthly.  Average monthly salary on AvtoVAZ is 47000 RU (470 $), but can be from 29 000 Ru of low-qualified worker up to 50 000 and even 70 000 of qualified turner or miller. 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

59 minutes ago, Teufel said:

These Swedes some sly and sneaky bastards, wouldn’t surprise me if this “already started” been ongoing for some time. The SAAB 39 Griffin is available in around 100-120 units across friendly countries of Sweden, Czech Republic and the UK. Let’s exclude South Africa, Brazil and Hungry that also have these but unlikely to transfer to Ukraine.

The Czech Gripens are leased (as are the Hungarian) and the UK only has one of them, so it's probably Sweden or nothing.

I suspect Haiduk is correct that this is Plan B in case Plan A (F-16s) doesn't happen. I don't think we will see both F-16s and Gripens in Ukraine.

[Haiduk]

Hm... The second claim Robotyne is lost for Russians. But, well, let's see...

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I don't think we will see both F-16s and Gripens in Ukraine.

Ukraine officially asked Sweden about JAS-39. So, with very high probability they can fight together %)

[Teufel]

Morale is high among brothers in arms!

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Ukraine officially asked Sweden about JAS-39. So, with very high probability they can fight together %)

More power to them if they can make it happen but I see only 8 pilots in the first F-16 cadre and wonder how many more are available.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/checks-and-balance-from-the-economist/id1494037881?i=1000624903791

 

Discussion of U.S. Chinese relations. It includes a substantial discussion of munitions production in regards to both deterring China, and maintaining supplies to Ukraine.

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Ukraine officially asked Sweden about JAS-39. So, with very high probability they can fight together %)

I imagine Sweden hasn’t already gotten them in play because there are so few available and they don’t have the capacity to build that many quickly. Maybe they ramped up real fast and will steal the US’s thunder?

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I don't think we will see both F-16s and Gripens in Ukraine.

I don't see why not, many countries have frontline combat aircraft supplied by multiple other countries. Malaysia has F/A-18s, MiG-29s, Su-30s and Hawk 200s, for example.

Edited August 19, 2023 by G.I. Joe
Typo/autocorrect error

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

I imagine Sweden hasn’t already gotten them in play because there are so few available and they don’t have the capacity to build that many quickly. Maybe they ramped up real fast and will steal the US’s thunder?

If they are combat proven in Ukraine as a good enough solution, with a lower maintenance and training load, I would think Sweden could sell a TON of them. I realize F-35s have a lot more capability, and drones are coming like an avalanche, but there is still a lot to be said a for a manned fighter with NATO standard coms/hardpoints/radar and the ability to land on any decent road.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

More power to them if they can make it happen but I see only 8 pilots in the first F-16 cadre and wonder how many more are available.

That's definitely a stumbling block and it may prevent both types from serving together in the short term. But in the long term it has to be addressed either way because 8 pilots is really too small a cadre even for one type and English proficiency is going to be required with NATO integration regardless of equipment choice. My guess is they will probably end up both entering service eventually.

Edited August 19, 2023 by G.I. Joe

[Battlefront.com]

A good article on a way to proactively end the war in Ukraine that doesn't require either a total Ukrainian victory or an acceptable negotiated peace (not frozen conflict) with Russia.  It's a solid idea that has been mentioned a bit here, but not quite like this.

The gist is that Ukraine pause the war, not freeze it.  It then pursues rebuilding its country and becoming a part of NATO.  Since the territory under Ukraine's control is not "disputed", then membership should be allowed.  Similar to West Germany becoming a NATO member despite half the country being part of the DDR or dissolved.  A Russian attack into Ukrainian government controlled land would be Article 4 and 5 material.

Because NATO is a defensive pact, Ukraine could engage in retaking its territory without involving NATO.  Even if Russia attacked Ukraine at this point, NATO could vote down Article 5 because Ukraine initiated hostilities again.  More likely, Ukraine would never ask for Article 5 to be enforced because why would it?  But what it would do is make it extremely dangerous for Putin to attack Ukrainian territory during the interim.  As the author put it:

Quote

Yes, Russian forces could try to go on the offensive again, but the likely futility of attacking fortified Ukrainian positions now backed by the threat of NATO firepower would be a strong deterrent. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia would remain; its economic and military strength would continue to erode; and Putin could only watch as his frozen assets abroad are drawn down to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. He would be left with no agency and no options.

Basically, call Putin's bluff.

This may not be a feasible idea due to resistance within NATO, however it is certainly an option that can be explored next year if things haven't shifted significantly in Ukraine's favor by the end of this year:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/18/how-to-end-ukraine-war-00111752

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

That's definitely a stumbling block and it may prevent both types from serving together in the short term. But in the long term it has to be addressed either way because 8 pilots is really too small a cadre even for one type and English proficiency is going to be required with NATO integration regardless of equipment choice. My guess is they will probably end up both entering service eventually.

"Eventually" being the operative word. Of course there is no reason Ukraine can't operate more than one type of fighter. They do that already. But transitioning to two different types simultaneously seems like a bad idea unless it cannot be avoided, e.g. there are too few fighters of each type available.

For what it's  worth, I came across an article from June in which Sweden called Ukrainian pilot training an "operational evaluation":

"The armed forces are tasked with orientation training for Ukrainian pilots and associated aeronautical personnel on the JAS-39 [Gripen]," a machine translation of the release says. "The Ukrainian armed forces have expressed requests to be able to operationally evaluate the JAS-39 as one of the most urgent measures is to strengthen the Ukrainian air defense with a modern combat aircraft system."

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripen

[G.I. Joe]

47 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

"Eventually" being the operative word. Of course there is no reason Ukraine can't operate more than one type of fighter. They do that already. But transitioning to two different types simultaneously seems like a bad idea unless it cannot be avoided, e.g. there are too few fighters of each type available.

For what it's  worth, I came across an article from June in which Sweden called Ukrainian pilot training an "operational evaluation":

"The armed forces are tasked with orientation training for Ukrainian pilots and associated aeronautical personnel on the JAS-39 [Gripen]," a machine translation of the release says. "The Ukrainian armed forces have expressed requests to be able to operationally evaluate the JAS-39 as one of the most urgent measures is to strengthen the Ukrainian air defense with a modern combat aircraft system."

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripen

Agreed, I think you're probably right in that whichever type arrives first (presumably Gripen at this point) is likely to be the only one used before the shooting stops. But I fully expect the F-16 deliveries and possibly one or more of the other types we've seen discussed as well to continue on the back burner to facilitate as rapid a phase-out of Ukraine's legacy Soviet types as possible.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

For what it's  worth, I came across an article from June in which Sweden called Ukrainian pilot training an "operational evaluation":

Yup.  I've seen it mentioned in various Twitter feeds from time to time for quite a while.  I'm not sure if this new information we're discussion represents a more formal acknowledgement of what's already been going on or if there's something new coming that's more likely to result in aircraft operating in Ukraine sometime soon.

BTW, the author of the Politico article I linked to would be saying this is another incentive for Ukraine to pause the war.  It would provide time and opportunity to really integrate complex Western equipment into their forces.  That includes training, support, and experience that doesn't have a high rate of "pass/fail" (with fail being death).

Steve