How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

UKR Humvee evacuates wounded from battlefield. When it drives, AP-mine has blown up under the wheel, but the vehicle continued moving

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

That’s my assumption. Maintenance for most things is most of the overall cost over the lifetime of the thing.

With the Kerch Bridge, you gotta imagine that’s a priority for civil engineers over all sorts of other useful things around the warzone or in Russia that they could be doing instead. Better focus on the bridge, and maybe even kill a few.

The other thing I didn't mention is related to your point.  If Ukraine damaged the bridge beyond repair, Russia would not attempt to fix it and would instead invest resources into something else.  If Ukraine instead hits it hard enough to disrupt use, but not so hard that it is a lost cause, then Russia will pour resources (including time) into fixing it. So, from a disruption standpoint it is arguably better to damage the bridge to the point of reduced functionality, wait for Russia to spend time and money on fixing it, then hit it again as soon as the repairs are complete.

3 hours ago, poesel said:

One reason not to drop Kerch Bridge maybe that it makes retreating easier. Having a way out lessens the resolve of the defenders. IIRC that's from Sun-Tzu, so nothing new.

We discussed this with the Kherson bridges and I believe it to be a part of the equation. 

3 hours ago, mosuri said:

There's also the simple possibility that they tried with more but it didn't work. The drones might have reliability issues, being a new tool, or EW jamming might make them inoperable. Not sure how much kinetic interception Russia is capable of doing at night.

Reminds me of the various midget submarine operations in WW2. Sometimes spectacular results, sometimes damp squibs.

Yup, exactly.  There could be a number of practical reasons why Ukraine can't drop the bridge.

Steve

[Haiduk]

The scene, worthy of movie %) 

UKR machine-gunner of 3rd assault brigade lies together with captured Russian and talks with him:

- So, what do you do here?

- I went to enlistment office to get military ID - I'm 33 y.o, - in order to get a job [by the law employer can't hire a man without military ID]. But theese pidars just shoved me in here, fu..k. I even didn't serve in army, fu...k

- I'l just f...k it 

- I have three children

- I'l just f...k it... Let even ten. 

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Next R-330Zh Zhytel' EW asset was HIMARSed by 3rd SOF regiment targeting

 

 

[Haiduk]

This morning UKR General Staff oficially claimed units of 35th marines brigade liberated Urozhaine village. It's took more time than expected after Russians abandoned the village, because they defended own lasr positions in several houses in souuthern end of village and conducted two large counter-attacks in order to recapture Urozhaine back. Now Russians pulled back to Zavitne Bazhannia and Staromlynivka. Simultainoulsy, UKR troops started to make recon in force from Urozhaine toward Kermenchyk village - next keypoint of Russian defense in eastern direction.

DeepState TG reported the battle for Urozhaine was hard and as example told about UKR vehicle losses during liberation of Staromajorske and repelling of Russian counter-atatcks on this village - 19 differnent combat vehicles. 

On the video is an episond of 2-3 days ago during the fighting for Urozhaine - UKR tanks conduct "hit&run" attack of Russian positions in the village - UKR tank on full speed approaches to the village, conducting supressive fire with main gun. Russians fires back. On 2:28 something big has exploded - maybe remote controlled IED, which Russians activated too late, when the tank already passed this place.

There is other video of this episode, where UKR drone team, who watch this action cheers on guys in this tank

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

a long illness.. is that a way of expressing that the window was above the 8th floor?

Very heavy example of defenestrosis, perhaps.;)

There are various explanations as to Zhydko position before and during this war. He was probably of Ukrainian descent, albeit born in Far East; some say he was one of more talented on Russians side and one of planners of successfull southern Russian offensive. But others seem to be not thrilled by him and compare to other Soviet-minded commanders.

[Haiduk]

Russian position, taken some on southern front. It's claimed Russians were eliminated by DPCIM. You can see at least 8 bodies, while UKR soldier walks about several dozen meters

 https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1691805607391592741

Russians write in TG they suffered heavy losses of DPICM, especially many wounded and this caused additional load on medical evacuation and hospitals. One milblogger in angry wrote RU MoD told they also have DPICM, but as turned out most of these artillery shells already in bad conditions and didn't work properly. In conditions of almost full absence of effective counter-battery fire, UKR artilelry cause big problems and allegedly retreat from Urozhaine was caused also because of UKR artillery unpunished work. 

Though from UKR side feedback about DPICM is not so unambigous. I have seen posts, where told DPICM initially were set to air explosion on too high altitude, so the shell created too wide circle of subminition explosions and the center of this circle had was almost "safe zone". You could see such explosions several weeks ago on numerous videos. Now altitude is sets some lower and efefctiveness  became higher, but not always.  

 

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR sappers use drones with thermal cameras to detect minefields. Likely because of hot weather the mine hulls accumulate a heat and it can be seen in thermal from the above

 

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian position, taken some on southern front. It's claimed Russians were eliminated by DPCIM. You can see at least 8 bodies, while UKR soldier walks about several dozen meters

 https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1691805607391592741

Russians write in TG they suffered heavy losses of DPICM, especially many wounded and this caused additional load on medical evacuation and hospitals. One milblogger in angry wrote RU MoD told they also have DPICM, but as turned out most of these artillery shells already in bad conditions and didn't work properly. In conditions of almost full absence of effective counter-battery fire, UKR artilelry cause big problems and allegedly retreat from Urozhaine was caused also because of UKR artillery unpunished work. 

Though from UKR side feedback about DPICM is not so unambigous. I have seen posts, where told DPICM initially were set to air explosion on too high altitude, so the shell created too wide circle of subminition explosions and the center of this circle had was almost "safe zone". You could see such explosions several weeks ago on numerous videos. Now altitude is sets some lower and efefctiveness  became higher, but not always.  

 

 

Many thanks for the updates Haiduk. DPICM had a learning curve like everything else, it just seems to be an inevitable part of it. It still infuriates me that it took fifteen months to start sending them, and that he M26 Rockets for the HIMARS STILL are not there.

[Haiduk]

Dash camera films UKR HMMWVV crew fight from inside. Three fighters dismount themeselves, driver, commnder and gunner still in vehicle. At the end Humvee was struck or blew by mine, but all three could abandon it.

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

DeepState TG reported the battle for Urozhaine was hard and as example told about UKR vehicle losses during liberation of Staromajorske and repelling of Russian counter-atatcks on this village - 19 differnent combat vehicles. 

Rybar claims there were 28 vehicles in his count from this video:
 

 

[akd]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

On 2:28 something big has exploded - maybe remote controlled IED, which Russians activated too late, when the tank already passed this place.

The tank is dragging something behind it at the start. Hard to tell if still present when camera is zoomed in on tank firing, but I think I can still occasionally see the rope / chain / entangled wire.  Extremely aggressive form of smoke screen?

[Haiduk]

New maritime drones "Sea Baby". 850 kg of warhead. Exactly this type of drones struck Kerch bridge month ago.

 

[kevinkin]

Let's systematically step by step start staring Putin down:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-nato-war-risk-black-sea/

I can't think of a better domain to start with: the sea. The Montreux Convention should be temporally disregarded until Russia leaves all of Ukraine. 

When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit. The USA is not a signatory to the Convention.

The west has to stop playing to Russia's only strength, ground combat, and attack through their well know weaknesses. 

In response to the Russian withdrawal from the grain deal, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused Russia of "dangerous and escalatory actions in the Black Sea," partly also in reference to Russia's bombardment of Ukrainian ports. NATO added it was "stepping up surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones." 

Not a strong enough response. Same old same old. 

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The scene, worthy of movie %) 

UKR machine-gunner of 3rd assault brigade lies together with captured Russian and talks with him:

- So, what do you do here?

- I went to enlistment office to get military ID - I'm 33 y.o, - in order to get a job [by the law employer can't hire a man without military ID]. But theese pidars just shoved me in here, fu..k. I even didn't serve in army, fu...k

- I'l just f...k it 

- I have three children

- I'l just f...k it... Let even ten. 

 

These clips where Ukrainian and Russian servicemen interect face to face are always interesting.

Makes me wonder if the new Russian POW really does have three kids, or is he just saying that to gain sympathy from the Ukrainians now that he knows he will be their prisoner.

 

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar claims there were 28 vehicles in his count from this video:
 

 

The count seems correct.  I didn't see the usual double counting trick these guys use.  However, most are just blobs with no ability to identify.  Given that Russia contested the village and conducted major counter attacks, it is quite possible (if not probable) that some of these vehicles are Russian and not Ukrainian.

Whatever the case might be, even Ukraine's official count is a high price to pay for a fairly small territorial gain.

Steve

[kevinkin]

Breadcrumbs?:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-nato-official-suggests-surrendering-land-to-russia-for-membership

After Jenssen's comments, a NATO official reassured Ukraine that there has been no change in policy.

"We fully support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as NATO leaders reaffirmed at the Vilnius Summit in July,” the unnamed official told Ukrainian Pravda. “We will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary, and we are committed to achieving a just and lasting peace."

Beyond being a non-starter in Kyiv, the question of a land-for-membership swap is highly unlikely. During its July summit in Vilnius, NATO basically pushed the concept of Ukrainian membership until after this war is over on Ukrainian terms.

Those terms might just have to come to grips with the overall situation. That's neither hawkish nor defeatist. Ukraine is trying to egg NATO into a more active role. If intel suggests Russia is at the edge of the cliff NATO, should apply enough increasing pressure to have them fall off the cliff. If not, adopt the Israel/South Korea model and compete on economic lines. Create a situation were kinetics stop long enough to allow Ukraine NATO membership. Russian will keep attacking even if limited in scope. But NATO just has to get over that and stop using Ukraine as a proxy. I am starting to think NATO is so afraid of the bogey man they are would not help any single NATO nation if attacked e.g. Poland. Jeez, get off the bench and end the suffering. 

Edited August 16, 2023 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Breadcrumbs?:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-nato-official-suggests-surrendering-land-to-russia-for-membership

After Jenssen's comments, a NATO official reassured Ukraine that there has been no change in policy.

"We fully support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as NATO leaders reaffirmed at the Vilnius Summit in July,” the unnamed official told Ukrainian Pravda. “We will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary, and we are committed to achieving a just and lasting peace."

Beyond being a non-starter in Kyiv, the question of a land-for-membership swap is highly unlikely. During its July summit in Vilnius, NATO basically pushed the concept of Ukrainian membership until after this war is over on Ukrainian terms.

Those terms might just have to come to grips with the overall situation. That's neither hawkish nor defeatist. Ukraine is trying to egg NATO into a more active role. If intel suggests Russia is at the edge of the cliff NATO, should apply enough increasing pressure to have them fall off the cliff. If not, adopt the Israel/South Korea model and compete on economic lines. Create a situation were kinetics stop long enough to allow Ukraine NATO membership. Russian will keep attacking even if limited in scope. But NATO just has to get over that and stop using Ukraine as a proxy. I am starting to think NATO is so afraid of the bogey man they are would not help any single NATO nation if attacked e.g. Poland. Jeez, get off the bench and end the suffering. 

Just start with the simple things, send them ATACMs, send the the M26 rockets, and send every round of 155 on earth. The U.S.air force will just have to live up to it press releases if war breaks out somewhere else. 

There is a LOT of recent reporting that Russian artillery is is being beaten down on the Southern front to the point where Ukraine has a real superiority in fires for the first time in the whole war. The best time to win this war is RIGHT NOW, and Ukraine can use the three things mentioned above with little or no training, SEND THEM.

[kevinkin]

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/world-largest-tank-factory-overdrive-russian-losses-ukraine-2550750

But Russia has other means at its disposal. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a US military think-tank, estimated that Moscow has 5,000 older tanks in storage that can be refurbished to make them battle-ready.

“This may enable them to resurrect around 90 older battle tanks per month,” the group estimated – giving a figure that would bring Russia close to matching reported losses. Ukrainian estimates for production of refurbished tanks is significantly lower at around 200 a year.

This type of analysis does not take into account the talent needed to operate the armor. If we assume the numbers are correct, Ukraine's tank leaders are going have to be very good. But even then, does that support offensive operations? 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/world-largest-tank-factory-overdrive-russian-losses-ukraine-2550750

But Russia has other means at its disposal. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a US military think-tank, estimated that Moscow has 5,000 older tanks in storage that can be refurbished to make them battle-ready.

“This may enable them to resurrect around 90 older battle tanks per month,” the group estimated – giving a figure that would bring Russia close to matching reported losses. Ukrainian estimates for production of refurbished tanks is significantly lower at around 200 a year.

This type of analysis does not take into account the talent needed to operate the armor. If we assume the numbers are correct, Ukraine's tank leaders are going have to be very good. But even then, does that support offensive operations? 

I have used my twitter allotment for today, But Tartargami just did a detailed analysis of the the Russian tank refurbishment facilities that are plain to see on open source satellite pictures. He was pretty certain te Russian production was 40 tanks per month or less.  I think a lot of intel analyst are still not realizing that most of the old stuff is just scrap metal. Or at least bad enough that you have to piece thru four or five of them to get one "running" vehicle. 

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The best time to win this war is RIGHT NOW, and Ukraine can use the three things mentioned above with little or no training, SEND THEM.

I agree. But NATO is going to have to go farther almost to the brink of the unthinkable to get Putin to blink. Again, play into NATO's definitive strengths in naval and air. No fly zones and Black Sea escorts. It's become pretty obvious ground warfare alone will not free Ukraine. Why should we have ever assumed it would? 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

This type of analysis does not take into account the talent needed to operate the armor. If we assume the numbers are correct, Ukraine's tank leaders are going have to be very good. But even then, does that support offensive operations? 

Well, putting aside the report's mentioning the T-14 as active in Ukraine, it's the the usual mix of unrealistic Russian claims and Ukrainian/Western worst case estimates.  Nowhere in that article does it discuss the quality problems that are inherent with reviving decades old rusting tanks as replacements for newer tanks that went boom.  There was mention in there about sanctions dodging, but it's not just that.  Reviving 90 tanks a month, to me, doesn't seem plausible at all.  But taking it as if it is, I'd wager it is simply getting the thing running with whatever it had when it was junked.  Even if modern systems were available in quantity, which I also doubt, they would likely take more time to install and ensure worked correctly than what was quoted.

In short... even if we believe that Russia can keep up with losses by filling in with older revived tanks, there will be a noticeable quality decline from what Russia started with.  On top of that, there's the cost and training of new crews to consider as without the ability to support those two things the theoretical tank output is meaningless.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

I agree. But NATO is going to have to go farther almost to the brink of the unthinkable to get Putin to blink. Again, play into NATO's definitive strengths in naval and air. No fly zones and Black Sea escorts. It's become pretty obvious ground warfare alone will not free Ukraine. Why should we have ever assumed it would? 

Because we are still holding desperately to the belief that Putin is rational, competent, and can be reasoned with. If he was any, much less all, of those things he would have  declared victory and gone home in March 2022.

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

40 tanks per month or less. 

I guess we will find out. But I would rather plan against the something in between. Could the US even move 40 M1s a month into Ukraine from storage? Don't forget the sad state of the maritime logistics the US has fallen into. I will look into that and report back. 

[Battlefront.com]

Two articles of interest in Politico today:

1.  Germany reneges on its promise to meet NATO 2% GDP defense spending.  Now it appears to be saying that it will do so averaged over 5 years.  I'm a bit sympathetic to the logic, but other nations who meet the 2% threshold do so every year, which means there's no practical reason why Germany can't.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-change-of-plan-nato-spending/

2.  Former GOP House staffer is working hard to keep the GOP led House supporting Ukraine.  He's doing so from Ukraine and with the insider knowledge of how the House works an thinks (loose use of that term!):

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/13/ukraine-capitol-hill-steven-moore-00108134

Steve