Marc Anton Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 As the title says why is there no preorder for downloads only ? No problem from my side to support BFC but i live in germany and iam not willing to pay 35$ for the game and 27$ for shipping :-))))) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Emrys Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 No problem. Just wait for the release and order the DL version then. You'll probably have it in minutes (providing the servers aren't swamped ). Michael 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Canadian Cat Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Are BFC changing their policy then? They usually notify those who pre-orded to say they can download and then between 1 and n days later open it up for the rest of us riffraff. Ian 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davek555 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I think they send out an e-mail to the pre-orders a few hours before they open it up for everyone. I don't think it is a whole day...at least I hope not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Emrys Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Are BFC changing their policy then? They usually notify those who pre-orded to say they can download and then between 1 and n days later open it up for the rest of us riffraff. I think in theory the pre-order folks are supposed to get a 24 hour head start before the deluge. However...some idiot usually comes on the board and announces that he has gotten his notice and is DLing the game (right now!). And since BFC apparently has a policy of not turning away anyone who shows up with money in their hot little hands (and it's not hard to understand why), the rush is on. Sometimes it is actually better to wait a day to allow the traffic to thin out a bit. Michael 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Canadian Cat Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I think in theory the pre-order folks are supposed to get a 24 hour head start before the deluge. OK I went digging into the archives to find the timing of those pre-order spoiler messages and the delta until everyone is officially given access. I found reference to BFC's policy of saying that everyone who pre-ordered will get up to a 36 hours head start. None of the delays were longer than 24 hours. Most were within the same business day. The only one that actually caused any significant delay in a person's ability to play was the Gustav Line release where the pre-order people got to download it in the evening and the rest of us got access the next morning. Which meant that if you were working you had to wait almost a full day to play. So, my memory sucks and I apologize. Here is the data I got from the forums along with a bonus prediction of the MG release date: The length of time from the game announcement to release varies wildly. The length of time from when pre-orders are available until release is a bit less wild. With a standard deviation of 11 days that gives us a range of release between October 6th and October 28th. If we we drop the CMBN release data from the sample (it is the oldest and most different from the last three releases) then we get a standard deviation of just over 3 days which gives us a date range for release of MG between October 7th and October 14th. Looks like we are in the range now whichever way you look at it. I predict a release date of October 8th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iMolestCats Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I'm putting my money on preorder DLs on the 8th, then official release on the 9th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buzz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 OK I went digging into the archives to find the timing of those pre-order spoiler messages and the delta until everyone is officially given access...... I predict a release date of October 8th. Nicely done Ian. What does Vegas say Any estimates on SF-2 or "Black Sea"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ithikial_AU Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Ian you bring a tear to this Economist's eye. CM really has some dedicated (and weird) fans. Don't think you'd see this type of work to predict a release date for Call of Duty. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heyhellowhatsnew Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Is the the thread where I say i'm officially on disability for MS from work for a little and is it out yet or coming out this week? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heyhellowhatsnew Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Also for my last 2 and a half hour "I just found i'm sick everyone has to read and respond to my posts including devs" week good benefit: Can I just say that non-digital preorders these days still seem weird to me? I know you're trying throttle the bandwidth so people getting disks and waiting for them can download first but its just annoying to have to make sure I keep checking threads to see if its out and make sure I have the money instead of paying you all upfront. I'd rather much like to pay up front instead constantly making sure I have it on X date to buy the product. Try and experiment with it once at least! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Canadian Cat Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Nicely done Ian. What does Vegas say Any estimates on SF-2 or "Black Sea"? The trouble with the bookies is they set the odds based on what the betters believe. They are not really trying to predict anything. Ian you bring a tear to this Economist's eye. CM really has some dedicated (and weird) fans. Don't think you'd see this type of work to predict a release date for Call of Duty. Where as economists try to figure out what is really going on. I am not an economist but I really enjoy hearing about their way of tackling problems. I just finished listening to a pod cast talking about how poor the quality of predictions are. Mostly due to the fact it costs nothing to make a prediction and if you get it wrong your prediction is forgotten but when you get one right everyone remembers it. It was interesting to hear the ideas for improving the quality of predictions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ithikial_AU Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I just finished listening to a pod cast talking about how poor the quality of predictions are. Mostly due to the fact it costs nothing to make a prediction and if you get it wrong your prediction is forgotten but when you get one right everyone remembers it. It was interesting to hear the ideas for improving the quality of predictions. They are. There's two types of Economists, ones who jump on Television whenever they can and those that actually do pay close attention to an element of the economy. Some focus on currencies, some stock markets, myself... labour markets. Forecasts / Predictions and Modelling are all necessary evils for planning future spending etc. but they are just that "Crystal Balling" with some maths behind it. Not worthless but not 100% error proof either. It's the advent of the 24 hour news cycle that has thrust these things into the spotlight and advertising a forecast as a snapshot look at how the future will play out that causes all the trouble. Unpredictable humans are usually the problem. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson 1812 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 You put your left arm in, your left arm out, in out...in out shake it all about. All things being equal... you turn around... that what's it all about! Forecasting, that easy... except when a leper, plays... Bankers should be banned from playing games like monopoly in work-time! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Emrys Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The trouble with the bookies is they set the odds based on what the betters believe. They are not really trying to predict anything. That's news to me, since when they have to pay out and how much depends on what actually happens. This is why they give low odds to probable winners and better odds to likely losers. That reduces their payout if the expected winners do in fact win, and encourages hopeful fools to bet on the losers. Michael 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Emrys Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 While on the subject of economics, has anybody else here read The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order by Benn Steil? I started this early in the year but had to put it aside under the press of more salient readings. I did however find it fascinating. Most books on economics are obscure and boring in the extreme unless it happens to be a field you automatically respond to with interest, but Steil seems to have pulled off a minor miracle in humanizing a normally dry subject without losing a sense of what it was really all about. But I'd like to hear what any of our "experts" have to say about it. Michael 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buzz Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 That's news to me, since when they have to pay out and how much depends on what actually happens. This is why they give low odds to probable winners and better odds to likely losers. That reduces their payout if the expected winners do in fact win, and encourages hopeful fools to bet on the losers. Michael I think Michael has a point not that I partake in sports betting or have any experience with such a risky amusement A lot comes down to what Ithikial_AU targeted = "Unpredictable humans are usually the problem." Enjoyed your graphics Ian and lets see if today is the day 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Emrys Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 ...not that I partake in sports betting or have any experience with such a risky amusement. Of course not. If you hadn't brought it up, the thought would have never crossed my mind. Michael 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Canadian Cat Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 That's news to me, since when they have to pay out and how much depends on what actually happens. The way it works is they (I'm talking about legitimate betting here not anything bent) set the odds as the bets come in. The odds change so that they end up with a balanced book. No mater the out come they can pay the winners from the looser money. The bookies make their money on a portion of each bet. Check this out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bookmaker#Operational_procedures Back to those unpredictable humans again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilM Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The way it works is they (I'm talking about legitimate betting here not anything bent) set the odds as the bets come in. The odds change so that they end up with a balanced book. No mater the out come they can pay the winners from the looser money. The bookies make their money on a portion of each bet. Check this out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bookmaker#Operational_procedures Back to those unpredictable humans again. I was just about to reply in a similar vein - but took the opportunity to read your wiki link, where I really did LOL when I read this: Their working methods are similar to that [sic: read those] of an actuary, Cannot think of any of the actuaries I've had dealings with over the years would like that comparison very much! Or not publicly, anyway ... Respectable bookmakers? Whatever next! Or is it more a comment on the actuaries? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spinoza Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Ah , e-con-o-mics !! As Macbeth said to Hamlet in A Midsummer Night’s Dream, “We’ve been done up like a couple of kippers”. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.