cesmonkey
-
Posts
1,237 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Posts posted by cesmonkey
-
-
-
50 minutes ago, dan/california said:
AFU says they have breached the worst of it. Unless they are totally blowing smoke I expect it to be an interesting week.
I would like to think so, but given that the Russians have to only defend a relatively narrow front for their next lines of defense versus a very large front for their forward lines of defense, I will wait for real evidence of a significant breakthrough.
-
The tops of Russian bombers were not painted in camouflage to confuse drones, after all:
https://t.me/milinfolive/105941
QuoteAs it turned out, the Tu-95MS on satellite images from Engels were not repainted to blur the silhouette, as previously thought, but were lined with car tires .
This can be understood from the recently published better pictures.
Apparently, it is assumed that the tires should somehow protect the Tu-95MS from dropping ammunition from the copter. Now it remains to wait for the protective visors for missile carriers, by analogy with tanks.
-
Last night's ISW report mentioned that the head of the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Valery Garbuzov, was recently fired from his job for this opinion piece in the Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper.
It has some wonderful quotes, but the whole piece is a good read:
https://www.ng.ru/ideas/2023-08-29/7_8812_illusions.htmlQuoteDirector of the Institute for the USA and Canada Valery Garbuzov on the Lost Illusions of the Bygone Era
Russia needs knowledge, not myths, for self-knowledge
About the author: Valery Nikolaevich Garbuzov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Institute for the USA and Canada Academician G.A. Arbatov RAS.QuoteIn the conditions of the information age, replacing realities with illusions, Russia seemed to be frozen in the past, still relying on the tsar-priest or another firm hand of the supreme power, while trying unsuccessfully to regain its former greatness, lost possessions and world influence.
QuoteShameful, gentlemen, and humiliating!
Background info on the institute:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_US_and_Canadian_Studies -
Russian telegrammer Rybar claims Germany has already delivered Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine:
Quote
“Neptunes” are indeed being used more and more often : over the past two weeks, an attack on the S-300 air defense system at Cape Tarkhankut has been recorded (there is also a version that it was a second-generation Brimstone) , and another missile was shot down on approach. As for the German "Tauruses" , they are already in Ukraine. According to some reports, the cruise missiles were delivered at the end of August, and another batch is expected at the beginning of this month. It is not yet clear which aircraft will be used for this purpose, given that the existing Su-24Ms have been repurposed for Franco-British missiles. But they are taking the Taurus closer to the Kanatovo airfields
and Ozerny , where there are Su-25s, MiG-29s, and Su-27s.
Apparently, now the Ukrainian authorities are waiting for the moment when the leadership of Germany will officially announce the delivery.
And perhaps this was due to the lack of at least a symmetrical (not to mention a decidedly asymmetric) response to the increasingly brazen and frequent sabotage and provocations of Ukraine on Russian territory.
#Germany #Ukraine
@rybar -
Quote
As of the evening of 01.09 at the turn of Rabotino-Verbovoyefighting continues. The leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this area decided to withdraw troops from the southern outskirts of the settlement of Rabotino against the backdrop of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the destroyed village. It is much harder to hold out there, so the RF Armed Forces retreated towards the heights south of Rabotino. From there, active artillery and aviation work is carried out on the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is nothing surprising in this: holding on to the ruins of the village is fraught with great losses and is inappropriate in the current situation. Therefore, the RF Armed Forces withdrew to equipped positions a little to the south (actually, the defensive line). It is very difficult to keep Rabotino without control over the southern heights, so part of the village at least remains in the gray zone, whether there will be counterattacks, time will tell. Well, in the direction of Verbovoye, the battles again went on all day: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are breaking through the fields, so far unsuccessfully, incurring losses.
Team @rabotyno -
This is a pretty interesting listen about the training of Ukrainians "in country" by westerners:
-
4 minutes ago, Rokko said:
Have there been any news from Urozhaine lately? I don't think I've heard anything from that direction since it was captured a couple of weeks ago. Are the Ukrainians still consolidating there, or fending of counter attacks?
This is what the Ukrainian Mashovets said this morning:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1171Quote2. There were no special changes in the Berdyansk and Volnovakha directions , with the exception of the area with. Shelter, where the Russian command tried to "slightly" push back the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of the village. It should be understood within the framework of ensuring the withdrawal of their units to the line of the village of Priyutnoye - the village of Cherished Desire. However, it was not possible to achieve much success, but on the contrary ... it contributed to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine came close to the northern outskirts of the village ...
In my opinion, it is precisely this frontier in this direction that will soon become the place where the main efforts will be made by both sides. The units of the 60th Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 349th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 247th Airborne Regiment of the enemy will have to "try" very hard to hold on to it ... Especially when the Armed Forces of Ukraine resume pressure at the junction between the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Army (OVA ) of the enemy ... in the direction of Cherished Desire - Staromlinovka.
3. In general, in the operational reserve of the command of the GV "Vostok" at the moment there are the following forces and means in order to "fend off" some breakthroughs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of an operational-tactical scale:
- and some other formation of a not entirely clear etymology called "Bashkortostan" (probably, sp MR, or msp TrV, although in this case - "radish horseradish is not sweeter") Well, also, "conditionally" enroll 2 regiments
76- th dshd - 234th and 237th ... which, we will consider, "on the road" ...
Moreover, the location of these reserves is such that they will still need some time to get to the "problematic" Tokmak direction. The vast majority is concentrated in the Volnovakha and partly in the Berdyansk direction.
As you can see, not too much. Not in volume, not in quality.
I think that within the next 5-6 days, the Russian command will be forced to make some cardinal decision regarding the situation in the Southern Operational Zone, where, at least in one of the directions (Tokmak), it has a rather serious crisis ... And I think , this will concern precisely the "search and finding" of additional forces and means from other operational directions and zones. Most likely - from the composition of the GV "Dnepr" ...
-
This Means War Podcast
Manoeuvre theory is in a coma
https://sites.libsyn.com/420071/manoeuvre-theory-is-in-a-coma
QuoteThe opportunities to use manoeuvrist theory on contemporary battlefields are scarce, if they exist at all. Professor Tony King talks to Peter about the three conditions he believes are necessary for it to be successful (movement and scale, defining will and cohesion, and delegated command). Given the geometry, topography and telemetry of today’s battlefields we would perhaps be better off educating leaders about alternatives to manoeuvrism.
-
Interesting, if true:
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27549/4816537/
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/52337
https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18624579
QuoteFSB stopped a series of terrorist attacks in the Bryansk region, which was prepared by the Ukrainian DRG
© TsOS FSB of Russia
The department clarified that two saboteurs were destroyed, five were detained -
Quote
The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $250 million, include:
AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
Mine clearing equipment;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
Hydra-70 Rockets;
Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
Armored medical treatment vehicles and High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.
-
43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Can President in case of ceasing of aid activate the aid by lend-lease?
Likely not, the authority to do this expires at the end of the fiscal 2023 budget year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Democracy_Defense_Lend-Lease_Act_of_2022 -
49 minutes ago, Carolus said:
Aye, that's the intention.
When the GLSDB was approved for delivery to Ukraine at the end of last / beginning of this year, Boeing and Saab announced that they will produce a few new truck-like vehicles for Ukraine because ensuring the compatibility to HIMARS or MLRS would take longer than that.
It seems anything that can be delayed, will be delayed.
-
Time to denigrate the importance of capturing Rabotino:
https://t.me/SolovievLive/205513
QuoteRabotino is a small settlement, 800 meters deep and 400 meters wide. This is the nearest settlement on the road to Tokmak, in the forefield, and not on the main line of defense. According to the calculations of the NATO strategists who created the counteroffensive plan, it should have passed fairly quickly. The Armed Forces of Ukraine intended to go further through Novoprokopyevka and Sladkaya Balka to Tokmak, then to Melitopol, on the coast of the Sea of Azov and to the Crimea.
Alexander Matyushin , war correspondent, senior lieutenant of the UNM DPR, on air SolovyovLIVE
-
2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
And here is Ukrainan officer response: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1695867428247396359.html
And dufman:
Putting the argument over ground teams vs. UAS for reconnaissance, what about the question on how Ukraine is using artillery ammunition? Are the supplied shells being used effectively or wastefully?
-
-
Russia report on the Rabotino sector:
https://t.me/SolovievLive/205338
QuoteSOLOVIEV
Forwarded from
Newspaper 1430 Polka
The situation in Rabotino at 15.30At the moment, the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have transferred all their available reserves to Rabotino. On the air you can hear the negotiations of foreign mercenaries.
Our troops at Rabotino received reinforcements from special forces units of the Airborne Forces and the Marine Corps. The RF Armed Forces successfully deter enemy attacks.
Artillery and mortars are working massively.
There is information about the concentration of up to 80 units of NATO armored vehicles near Orekhov, including Challenger-2 tanks, Stryker armored personnel carriers, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, as well as EW systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The enemy is also trying to attack the area between Rabotino and Verbov. But our fighters with incredible efforts destroy the enemy's assault groups, preventing him from breaking through in the direction of Tokmak.
-
Large update from the Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets. Here's a small excerpt:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1155Quote
So, the Armed Forces of Ukraine started fighting for mastering the first positions of the enemy’s main line of defense in the Tokmak-Melitopol direction.
At the moment I do not have concrete, verified data about their first results. But, according to a number of, as my readers say, “reports from the field”, the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already managed, at least in one sector, to penetrate to a depth of 1 km into the first position of the enemy’s main line of defense.
And another excerpt from his ending thoughts:
QuoteAs we can see ... the enemy’s forces and means, in order to to simply "stop" the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards Tokmak - not so much ...
I think the main question lies elsewhere - how will he use them ... And will the Russian command find something "essential" in the near future to hold the main line of defense. For, "crack" in the area of Novoprokopovka and Verbovoe is already quite clearly audible in Tokmok...
-
50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Oleksiy Danylov, Secreter of National Security Council claims Russian S-400 in Crimea was hit by new UKR missile, have been developing since 2020. He told no any details. I think this can be Neptun, upgraded for ground targets attack. But maybe and some new...
There was another article from yesterday on this:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/25/to-blow-up-russias-s-400-battery-in-crimea-ukraine-tweaked-its-cruiser-sinking-neptune-missile/?sh=5a4b39d57d3d -
From Mashovets' update today, you get the feeling that the Russians have a particular vulnerability in the Tokmak direction at the moment, compared to other portions of the front. Perhaps they were overconfident at that location?
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1153QuoteConsidering all of the above, I do not think that after
Staromayorsk and Harvest grounds to assert that in the Berdyansk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been able to "close come close" to "significant operational success." Before that, it’s still here, well, it’s not very close ...
Unlike the Tokmak direction, here the enemy has a whole set of forces and means to keep the situation in a more or less acceptable position for himself ...
At least he doesn’t shuffle battalions here along the front ... from section to section.
-
Reportedly, Ukrainians reached the first defense line. Whether they were really destroyed when they reached it as the Russians say, time will tell:
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/51974
Quote
Meat grinder in Rabotino: The enemy reached our defensive lines and was destroyed
Report from the Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye region E. Balitsky
For several days, Rabotino remains one of the most intense sectors of the front in the Zaporozhye direction. Last night was especially hot for the enemy, because on the day of the so-called "independence" their commanders did not particularly spare the lives of soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.At the cost of colossal losses yesterday, they were able to reach the first defensive line of engineering barriers, but they go basically even without artillery support.Assault groups of the enemy, which yesterday managed to reach the first line, were destroyed tonight in full strength.The situation is definitely tense. The enemy is trying to wear down our defenses with his constant suicides, but our guys give such a tough rebuff that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not have time to replenish the losses of their soldiers and Western equipment, which burns as well as any other.
t.me/RVvoenkor -
-
-
From the daily summary of Russian telegrammer Two Majors:
https://t.me/dva_majors/24256
QuoteOn the Zaporozhye front in Rabotino , the most difficult bloody battles are going on, they report a shift in the line of contact to the southern part of the settlement, and armored vehicles are being used. The enemy is also attacking to the east, to the direction of Malaya Tokmachka , our aviation is working on it, helping the troops on the ground. By nightfall, our forces opened the transfer of a column of 82 units of armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Orekhovo , a strike on Verbovoye is possible , foreign speech is heard in the radio intercepts .
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Silly me, I just realized the that the text on that page is the executive summary. If you download the PDF there is a lot of good info including detailed maps and analysis. The length of the PDF is 25 pages.