cesmonkey
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Posts posted by cesmonkey
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10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Yes, but we not Russia, we havn't hordes of slaves for conscription. And a Russian slogan "don't feel sorry for soldiers, broads will give birth more" is not match for us. We havn' t suffer such type of losses, caused by stupid orders.
Very depressing. Makes Kofman's analysis from the other day seem "spot-on".
Let's hope some lessons get learned from the Ukrainian side and the Western allies that prepared these new brigades for this counter-offensive. -
29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Yes. I wonder what source of his map layer. Though, his location of units often too conditional, but useful enough.
From his twitter post he says this as the source of his maps:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua
(Ultimately OpenStreetMaps and OpenTopoMaps)
And this is the source of his units:
https://twitter.com/projectowlosint -
14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Ukrainian units of 35th marines brigade and 7th battalion "Arey" of Ukrainian Volunteer Arny (of Dmytro Yarosh) libereated Staromajorske village (V.Npvosilka salient)
Yesterday situation map for this sector
Thanks for those updates. This is the source for those maps, right?
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13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
in response to the restart of the offensive jumping off,
In my reading of the Russian telegram channels, they have no doubt where the real axes of advance are being attempted right now.
For example:
https://t.me/polk105/9594QuoteHeavy fighting on the Vremievsky ledge: the enemy sent elite forces to break through the front near Staromayorsk, Harvest and Priyutny .
The enemy offensive at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR does not stop, the enemy dreams of breaking through along the T-08-15 highway through Staromayorskoye to Staromlynovka and further in order to cut through our defenses on the South-Donetsk sector of the front and try to cut off land communication with Crimea.
It's not easy for the guys in Staromayorsky and Harvest now - there are constant attacks of the Ukrainian. After artillery preparation, the 35th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the support of special operations forces, attacks from Makarovka.
Also, the enemy, with the support of artillery, seeks to advance through the landings at Priyutny and Harvest, so far to no avail.
Under Harvest, the enemy attacks in small assault groups, trying to break through and hit our flank. There are swings.
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23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Situation in Klishchiivka - Russians organized heavy counter attack. Fighting in northern part of the village is going for each meter. Probably Russians threw in the battle units of 102nd MRR of 150th MRD, moved here from Maryinka direction.
With this and the actions in other sectors, it sounds like today is going to be a very bloody day of the war.
Hoping for the best!
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Russia telegram channels say a particular strong attack by Ukraine near Robotyne in three waves was repulsed. I guess we'll see. War Gonzo reports that they will have video of it soon taken by their own crew.
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Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, @annamaliar, says:
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the number of our casualties on the offensive lines is much lower than that of the enemy. On Bakhmutskyi, we die 8 times less than the enemy. In Berdyansk and Mariupol it is 5.3 times less.
This is despite the fact that usually the side that advances loses more. -
Ukrainian naval drone:
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/107200
QuoteAt the IDEF 2023 exhibition in Istanbul, a new Ukrainian maritime drone MAGURA V5 was presented.
It is designed for reconnaissance, patrolling, search and rescue operations, mine countermeasures, as well as protection of the naval fleet and combat missions.
Its characteristics:
Height above the waterline: 500 mm;Cruising speed: 22 knots;Maximum speed: 42 knots;Range: 450 nautical miles (about 833 km);Payload: 320 kg;Communication: Mesh radio with aerial repeater or satellite communication.
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Today’s commitment in security assistance, valued at up to $400 million, includes additional air defense munitions, artillery and other ammunition, armored vehicles, anti-armor weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.
The capabilities in this package include:
1. Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
2. Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
3. Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
4. 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
5. 120mm and 60mm mortar rounds;
6. 32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
7. Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
8. Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
9. Hornet Unmanned Aerial Systems;
10. Hydra-70 aircraft rockets;
11. Tactical air navigation systems;
12. Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
13. Over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
14. Night vision devices and thermal imagery systems; and
15. Spare parts, training munitions, and other field equipment. -
3 hours ago, dan/california said:
They said that perfectly.
Agreed. But whether or not the West will make the necessary investments to support and sustain Ukraine to not only contribute to a successful counter-offensive but help Ukraine to win back their territory for what still looks to be a very long war seems questionable.
Putin may be very correct in thinking that Russia has longer staying power for this war of attrition, even if they do endure a higher causality ratio. -
An interesting interview.
One of the things mentioned is that Ukraine has a substantial need for non-lethal aid like communication equipment and portable generators but tells the United States that it only wants lethal aid as they believe that there is a limited amount of funding available from the US and its better to devote that entirely to lethal aid. Non-lethal aid can "usually" be bought commercially off the shelf while the options for buying lethal aid commercially are very limited. However, Ukraine still has big needs for non-lethal aid that are unfulfilled.
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https://t.me/operativnoZSU/106951
QuoteThe first photo of the 155-mm cluster projectiles, which were recently transferred to Ukraine by the USA.
Extended-range M864 projectiles (29 km), each of which contains 72 dual-purpose submunitions.
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6 hours ago, kevinkin said:
Ok, I agree the nuke stuff is going nowhere. Maybe we can lighten the discussion up. Which war game (computer or board game) would best simulated the static combat we are observing in eastern Ukraine? And would those products shed light on the war and combat so we all can learn from past mistakes? I use Combat Mission and Command, but they are obvious choices. Sure many other gamers do as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_War_I_video_games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_War_I_board_wargames
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_War:_Western_FrontMaybe mod in some drones? Or maybe the capabilities of air balloons and aircraft of that era could stand-in?
Note: I'm only half-way joking. -
Things seem to be kind of hot now in Kleshcheevka according to Russian telegrammer, Two Majors:
https://t.me/dva_majors/21974QuoteKleshcheevka, Southern flank of Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
We are informed from the field that heavy bloody battles continue in the direction. The enemy throws tanks and infantry to the settlement, there are shooting battles.
The strength of the enemy is the massive use of drones for reconnaissance and ammunition drops, trying to concentrate fire on our fortifications, bringing some of them to complete destruction.
When our small groups of infantry are detected, the enemy fires from tanks, uses mortars and cluster munitions. Also, the enemy will use anti-tank systems from the surrounding heights, which makes it difficult for the Russian Armed Forces to use armored vehicles.
The massive use of copters by the enemy has a significant impact on the development of the situation.
"We are at war, without panic. We hold on," our contact concludes the story.
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1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:
ATACMs are off the table again. Or maybe they were never on it.
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But U.S. defense and administration officials familiar with the issue said that despite what one called a growing public perception of “some sort of slow, gravitational pull” toward approval, there has been no change in U.S. policy and no substantive discussion about the issue for months.
The Pentagon believes that Kyiv has other, more urgent needs than ATACMS, and worries that sending enough to Ukraine to make a difference on the battlefield would severely undercut U.S. readiness for other possible conflicts.
The number of ATACMS in American stockpiles is fixed, awaiting replacement with the next generation, longer-range Precision Strike Missile, called the Prism, for PrSM, which is expected to enter service by the end of this year, officials said. Lockheed Martin still manufactures 500 ATACMS each year, but all of that production is destined for sale to other countries.
“The problem now is not their ability to strike deep” into Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, Kahl said. “They have that ability. They are doing it now. The Russian command and control, their logistics, have been disrupted in the deep.”
“The problem is not a hundred kilometers away, it’s one kilometer in front of them with the minefields”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/22/ukraine-us-long-range-missiles/
I wonder if the US would allow one of its ATACMS-equipped allies to send a few missiles to Ukraine just to find out how effective they could be?
Or is the the language above just hiding the real reason - which may be to not provoke Putin? -
War Gonzo reports some small Ukrainian advances in the south and near Bakhmut, and a Russian advance near Luhansk
https://t.me/wargonzo/13937Quote
️Front-line summary for the morning of 07/23/2023️
In the Ugledarsky sector, after artillery strikes, Ukrainian troops managed to expand the zone of control along the northern outskirts of Priyutnoye and reach the rear of Russian positions located even further north on the line to Staromayorsky. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, with the support of artillery, tried to counterattack from the side of Urozhaynoye in the direction of Blagodatny. Failed to advance. Russian troops fired on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Novodarovka, Neskuchny, Prechistovka and Vugledar. Themselves were under attack in Staromayorsky, Harvest and Novodonetsk. (Fig. 1)
On the Donetsk front, the RF Armed Forces, after shelling, attacked north of Novomikhailovka. There is a promotion. Similar actions in Maryinka, near the city of Krasnogorovka and Pervomaisky were unsuccessful. Russian troops hit the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Konstantinovka (not to be confused with the settlement of the same name southwest of Bakhmut), Pobeda, Georgievka, Maksimilyanovka, Ostrom, Nevelsky, Avdeevka, Novokalinovo, New York and Druzhba. (Fig. 2)
In the Bakhmut direction, fierce oncoming battles near Kleshcheevka. After artillery strikes, the Armed Forces of Ukraine temporarily pushed the Russian troops back to the city limits in the Khromovoe area. The counterattack of the RF Armed Forces in the direction of Grigorovka was repulsed by Ukrainian troops. Under shelling positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Aleksandro-Shultin, Stupochki, Rozdolovka, Controversial and Verkhnekamensky. Russian - in Kurdyumovka, Kleshcheevka, Yagodny and Berkhovka. (Fig. 3)
In the Luhansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces, with the support of aviation, attacked in the Serebryansky forest from Dibrova and near Nevsky. No success. The same result of assault operations in the Makeevka area. But from the side of Karmazinovka - a significant breakthrough of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine already on the right bank of the Zherebets River near Novoegorovka. A little to the north, the RF Armed Forces tried to force this water barrier in the Nadia area. Russian artillery worked on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belogorovka, Torskoy, Novoosinovo, Kupyansk, Sinkovka, Novomlynsk and Krasny Pervy. (Fig. 4)
See daily reports from the @wargonzo
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Claim that Storm Shadow missiles were used to strike an oil depot and ammunition storage in Crimea:
https://t.me/rybar/49946
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On the strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles at Oktyabrsky in Crimea
Today, Ukrainian formations fired two British cruise missiles Storm Shadow at the Oktyabrskoye village in the Krasnogvardeysky district of the Crimean peninsula .
An oil storage facility and an ammunition depot of the Black Sea Fleet were hit: a large fire broke out in the incident zone, local residents report sounds of secondary detonation.
The authorities announced the evacuation of the population within a radius of five kilometers from the scene to temporary accommodation. To minimize risks, traffic on the Crimean railway was suspended. According to the latest information, there were no casualties.
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10 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
some pointers:
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Was to the idea of establishing new "western" brigades proven/disproven?
- another way to go would have been to reinforce the existing experienced units with new battalions.
- a lot of the progress in the south was made by the older experienced units
- jury is still out but already merits questioning was this the way to go? Eighter way it was worth trying
Thanks for the link!
Kofman spends some time on the idea that the officers that went to the newly formed brigades were not the best the Ukraine military has because the officers that experienced brigades would be willing to spare for this task were the ones that would not be missed much from the current brigade.
Whether that is based on speculation or some evidence he is aware of, I don't know. But if it were true, then, yes, it would partly explain the performance of the new brigades. And it would reinforce the idea that it would have been better to upgrade existing brigades that create new ones.
It would be nice to hear from the NATO officers that trained these brigades what they thought of the quality of Ukrainian officers assigned to them.
So how does one extract a quality cadre from an experienced brigade for the purpose of forming a new brigade without hurting the existing brigade too much? -
Was to the idea of establishing new "western" brigades proven/disproven?
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A few miscellaneous tidbits:
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/49657Quote
The enemy showed preparations for breaking through the defense at Orekhov with the help of the American M58 MICLIC demining system
Zaporozhye front. The footage shows the 15th brigade of the National Guard "Kara-Dag" making passages in the minefields in the area of Novodanilovka - Rabotino.
Coordinates 47.49137, 35.85339.Now the enemy has not been conducting active offensive operations for several days, regrouping and pulling up assault groups to the lines of advance in the Rabotino-Verbovoye area.In the area of Novodanilovka, the delivery of assault groups and the placement of armored vehicles are recorded: Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, as well as tanks in closed firing positions to support infantry attacks.Demining vehicles have also been deployed to the area to make new passages in the minefields.In the near future, offensive operations are expected to be resumed by forces of the 65th and 47th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the 15th brigades of the National Guard.
QuoteData on the use of cluster munitions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being received from the Zaporozhye, Artemovsky (Bakhmut) and Kherson fronts.
A lot of voices are echoing the CNN story on:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/20/politics/pentagon-watchdog-report-ukraine-weaponry/index.html
Pentagon watchdog finds some Western weaponry sent to Ukraine was stolen before being recovered last year
What I find interesting is this part from that story:
QuoteThe report is dated October 6, 2022. In late October, the US resumed on-site inspections of Ukrainian weapons depots as a way to better track where the equipment was going.
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51 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
First recorded use of cluster munitions by Ukraine?
Don't know if it's the same place or if the writer has Tiger tank syndrome, but:
FYI. This appears to be the telegram post that NOELREPORTS translated:
https://t.me/obrazbuduschego2/14813
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Probably a very touch subject, but do you think the Western partners should put "more strings" in what manner their supplied weapons should be employed - so that they are used successfully? Would that help?
Of course, many of us believe the West isn't providing enough support such that they should deserve "a say" in this matter.