cesmonkey
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Posts posted by cesmonkey
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Russian telegrammer Rybar on the explosion at the customs warehouse at the Tashkent, Uzbekistan airport:
https://t.me/rybar/52447
QuoteThe current owner is the president's eldest son-in-law, Otabek Umarov . According to rumors, Inter Logistics is a joint Russian-Uzbek venture. Against the backdrop of Western attempts to isolate Russia and eliminate all ties between Central Asia and the Russian Federation, it suggests that what happened was hardly accidental.
The tasks performed in warehouses can be quite specific, and putting the enterprise out of commission in this situation is beneficial to interests with an anti-Russian position. And whether it was sabotage or “failure to comply with fire safety requirements” is not so important. The result is already there.
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Is it a drone or a long-range torpedo?
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Interesting article:
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3 hours ago, FancyCat said:
Manpower is probably the most valuable resource among Western nations (cause I prefer not venturing into other countries beyond) and the most politically vulnerable to lose. Nothing cheap about that. I mean review Ukraine's own political and social concerns around their soldiers. Consider how that is a clear marker of difference between Russia and Ukraine, and how the ensuring pleading from Ukraine has been for what keeps their soldiers alive. Artillery, western tanks, IFVs, APCs, despite the amounts of Soviet hardware given, it has always been Ukrainian preference for Western hardware and vehicles.
Also, ATVs, quad-bikes? I haven't seen one video of Ukrainians on a ATV or quad-bike. Are these armored popemobiles? I fail to see how anyone would willingly take a IFV or APC to the front instead of a ATV or quadbike.
At least 80 quad bikes donated to Ukraine from Latvia:
https://jalopnik.com/latvia-donates-electric-scooters-quads-to-ukraine-war-1850161897
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine#Utility_vehicles -
34 minutes ago, poesel said:
Yes, if you fight abroad for someone else or an idea.
No, if the Russians march into <your country>. Or anyone else, but in this context it's the Russians.
A misconception which was the downfall of many a dictator.
Yes, and no. I'm sure the Finn's in the 1939-1940 Winter War wish didn't have to face an enemy with much deeper manpower reserves then themselves.
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3 hours ago, poesel said:
It seems it was necessary to make this video which states the obvious. That frightens me a bit. But still a good thing.
I had to lookup who was behind this group. Makes sense.
https://gopforukraine.com/2023/08/14/new-2m-republicans-for-ukraine-campaign-launches-around-first-gop-debate-and-congressional-aid-fight/QuoteRepublicans for Ukraine is a project of Defending Democracy Together, led by Bill Kristol and Sarah Longwell.
https://www.defendingdemocracytogether.org/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republicans_for_the_Rule_of_Law
QuoteRepublicans for the Rule of Law is the principal initiative of the conservative, anti-Donald Trump political group Defending Democracy Together, founded by Bill Kristol, Mona Charen, Linda Chavez, Sarah Longwell, and Andy Zwick in 2019.
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From the Russian milblogger Rybar:
https://t.me/rybar/52299
QuoteSo far, only formations of the 35th , 36th and 37th Marine Brigades have arrived. It is also expected that 38 infantry infantry fighting vehicles and seven artillery battalions will appear. All these connections were removed from the Vremevsky site , which is why there is now a lull there.
️Judging by the concentration of forces, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have prioritized an offensive across the Dnieper to reach Crimea . Therefore, attempts continue to occupy the island zone of the Dnieper to provide a bridgehead.
The most likely direction should be considered Novaya Kakhovka . But the implementation of the plan is possible only with a simultaneous attack on the Orekhovsky sector , as well as from the Black Sea .
Given the increasing activity of the Ukrainian landing force off the coast of the peninsula, preparations are in full swing. Moreover, at the Rabotino - Verbovoe line , the Ukrainian Armed Forces are again preparing for an assault.
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1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:
While that would not shock me I'm guessing it's because there are a lot more DPICM warheads in inventory than unitary.
Or they are more willing to send the oldest and least-capable variant that the US is less interested in keeping in its inventory.
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What do you think would be a good target for ATACMS containing sub-munitions?
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1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:
Consider in US small coke is like half liter and small car has six tons, I hope it's at least a thousand.
Assuming the Wikipedia article is accurate - it's probably not up-to-date - you can do the math on how many are available:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS#Variants
QuoteVariants[edit]
- M39 (ATACMS Block I) missile with inertial guidance. It carries 950 M74 Anti-personnel and Anti‑materiel (APAM) bomblets. Range: 25–165 kilometres (16–103 mi). 1,650 M39 were produced between 1990 and 1997, when production ceased in favor of the M39A1. During Operation Desert Storm 32 M39 were fired at Iraqi targets and during Operation Iraqi Freedom a further 379 were fired.[22][23] The remaining M39 missiles are being updated to M57E1 missiles.[24][25] This is the only variant that can be fired by all M270 and M142 launcher variants.
- M39A1 (ATACMS Block IA) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries 300 M74 Anti-personnel and Anti‑materiel (APAM) bomblets. Range: 20–300 kilometres (12–186 mi). 610 M39A1 were produced between 1997 and 2003. During Operation Iraqi Freedom 74 M39A1 were fired at Iraqi targets.[22][23] The remaining M39A1 missiles are being updated to M57E1 missiles.[24][25] The M39A1 and all subsequently introduced ATACMS missiles can only be used with the M270A1 (or variants thereof) and the M142.
- M48 (ATACMS Quick Reaction Unitary [QRU]) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries the 500-pound (230 kg) WDU-18/B penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead of the US Navy's Harpoon anti-ship missile, which was packaged into the newly designed WAU-23/B warhead section. Range: 70–300 km (43–186 mi). 176 M48 were produced between 2001 and 2004, when production ceased in favor of the M57. During Operation Iraqi Freedom 16 M48 were fired at Iraqi targets and a further 42 were fired during Operation Enduring Freedom.[22][23] The remaining M48 missiles are in the US Army and US Marine Corps' arsenal.
- M57 (ATACMS TACMS 2000) missile with GPS-aided guidance. It carries the same WAU-23/B warhead section as the M48. Range: 70–300 km (43–186 mi). 513 M57 were produced between 2004 and 2013.[22][23] Accuracy is 9 m (30 ft) CEP (Circular Error Probability).[26]
- M57E1 (ATACMS Modification [MOD]) missile with GPS-aided guidance. The M57E1 is the designation for upgraded M39 and M39A1 with re-grained motor, updated navigation and guidance software and hardware, and a WAU-23/B warhead section instead of the M74 APAM bomblets. This variant includes a proximity sensor for airburst detonation.[24] Production commenced in 2017 with an initial order for 220 upgraded M57E1s.[22][23]
Update:
SLEP is the name of the program for updating the bomblet variants to the unitary warhead version M57E1.
The target was a maximum of 500 per contract:
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/sensors/article/14207794/munitions-navigation-and-guidance-payloads(290 for FY 2019)
https://www.defensedaily.com/lockheed-martin-receives-358-million-atacms-deal-readying-precision-strike-missile-testing-2019/army/
Given that they funded this multiple times, nearly all may have been upgraded by now:
https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/atacms/QuotePROGRAM STATUS
2QFY18: ATACMS Unitary Height-of-Burst Operational Test #1 and #2 at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico
3QFY18: SLEP 2 Production Contract Award
3QFY19: SLEP 3 Production Contract Award with two Options
2QFY20: SLEP 4 Production Contract Option 1 Award
PROJECTED ACTIVITIES3QFY21: SLEP 5 Production Contract Option 2 Award
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Nice chart from Rybar:
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Video clips from Sevastaopol from a pro-Russian western journalist:
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Quote
The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $325 million, include:
AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
Avenger air defense systems;
.50 caliber machine guns to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems;
155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM;
105mm artillery rounds;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
59 light tactical vehicles;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment. -
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Interesting possibilities:
South Korean newspaper editorial:
https://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2023/09/06/2023090601594.html
QuoteIf Putin tries to supply nuclear-powered submarines, reconnaissance satellites and cutting-edge fighter jets to North Korea, South Korea should consider supplying weapons directly to Ukraine.
And I bet South Korea's own sanctions against Russia would be ramped-up significantly.
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Quote
The American people deserve to know what their money has gone to. How is the counteroffensive going? Are the Ukrainians any closer to victory than they were 6 months ago? What is our strategy, and what is the president's exit plan? What does the administration define as victory in Ukraine? What assistance has the United States provided Ukraine under Title 10? It would be an absurd abdication of congressional responsibility to grant this request without knowing the answers to these questions. For these reasons and certainly until we receive answers to the questions above and others forthcoming we oppose the additional expenditure for war in Ukraine included in your request.
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28 minutes ago, Artkin said:
Pansir Man Portable Air Defense
Perhaps a bad Google translation?
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Report on what the Ukrainians hit in Crimea
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/115534
QuoteTonight, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Navy launched a large-scale fire strike at the Saki military airfield in occupied Crimea.
According to our sources in the Security Service, there were at least 12 combat aircraft (Su-24 and Su-30) and Pantsir MANPADS at the airfield. The Mojaher UAV operator training base was also located there. It is these drones that the Russians use to coordinate their own air strikes, as well as as a combat strike drone.
Strikes by the Security Service and the Naval Forces hit the target and caused serious damage to the occupiers' equipment. Drones were used to defeat the enemy, which overloaded the Russian air defense system, and then they launched Neptune missiles.
It is interesting that even Russian telegram channels confirm serious destruction and losses - they write about at least 30 dead soldiers.
The SBU assures that every day the "cotton" in Crimea will bloom more and more - the occupiers cannot feel safe on the occupied peninsula.
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Rybar had this interesting telegram post about Ukraine's tactics for launching storm shadow missiles against Crimea:
https://t.me/rybar/52150
Quote️
Combined attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Crimea
A few hours ago, Ukrainian formations launched another missile strike on Crimea . 11 Su-24M bombers took off from the Starokonstantinov airfield, five of which were carriers of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles. Having flown to the border of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, the groups of aircraft split up: nine remained in approximately the same area, and a pair went south to Ochakov . Eight Storm Shadows were launched around 12 o'clock in Crimea .
At the same time, reconnaissance groups of the Bears PMC noted that two Su-24M , passing at a low altitude of about 40 meters above the water , launched from the Black Sea . And before this, Ukrainian planes fired three AGM-160 MALD decoy missiles to mislead air defense systems.
Crews of the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division shot down five cruise missiles over Cape Tarkhankut and the Belbek airfield . Three Storm Shadows fell in the Verkhnesadovoye area - the target was likely a former military facility near the village.
A few hours before the attack fromA reconnaissance drone of an unidentified type took off from Kherson , which, rounding Cape Tarkhankut, occupied a patrol area west of Kachi and directed aircraft. It is highly likely that he was shot down by air defense systems.
This attack demonstrates a slight change in cruise missile tactics. Previously, such massive raids were carried out at night or early in the morning, but not during the day. And the flight of bombers at extremely low altitude is something that Ukrainian crews have been practicing for many months, trying to exploit gaps in air defense detection systems.
High resolution map
English version
#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar -
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Slightly off-topic, but interesting:
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted