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cesmonkey

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Posts posted by cesmonkey

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    A negative view from a Russian telegrammer posted about 10 hours ago:
    https://t.me/infomil_live/967
     

    Quote

    Our warrior subscribers from the Donetsk direction spoke about the situation in Avdievka .

    There is no need to talk about successes on our part. The entire theater of military operations consists of 4 forest plantations. If they manage to knock the enemy out of the line of defense, then they completely destroy all the trenches with artillery and tanks. After such shelling, the position becomes impossible to hold. All that has been achieved at the moment is moving the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from ours and increasing the gray zone.

    The current results of the offensive, which has been going on for almost 10 days, are in no way worth the losses incurred. No one cared about counter-battery combat or the ultimate superiority in fired shells. To put it quite frankly, the sector of the front most fortified by the enemy was chosen and no other result should have been expected.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    Thread recommended by Michael Kofman: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714715790153248909.html

    image.thumb.png.79a74e1f3643bda8b6465fbf9b6a2637.png

    Even though the first attacks were repelled, Russia will likely attack in this direction again in the future. There aren't many similar targets elsewhere. Progress will probably be slow, naturally depending on how much resources Russia will direct into capturing Avdiivka. 9/ 

    In Bakhmut, Russians eventually switched from active flanking efforts into capturing the city block by block. If the Russians are fixated on capturing Avdiivka, there can be a long and difficult battle ahead, as Ukrainians are likely just as determined to hold it. 10/ 

    In the long run, Ukraine may need to solve the encirclement threat with a counterattack. Especially the northern direction can develop into a real issue. Russians don’t need to advance far in order to make the situation more complicated for AFU. The distances are short. 11/ 

    There are some worrying features, even though Ukraine managed to repel Russians for now.

    Russia proved two things. It tried to take the initiative in a relatively fresh direction. Secondly, it still has reserves to do it, even though many have claimed the opposite. 12/ 

    Even though it seems Russians have learned some lessions from previous offensives, for example from Vuhledar, the tactical outcome of the offensive in Avdiivka was still a failure. This, however, indicates that Russia aims to actively learn and adapt. 13/

    Russian telegrammer Two Majors claims Ukraine is moving 3 units to the Avdiivka region:
    https://t.me/dva_majors/27658
     

    Quote

    The enemy transferred the 1st separate tank brigade, 45th and 63rd separate rifle battalions to the Avdeevsky direction . Our troops are increasing the density of artillery fire and air strikes.

     

    0

    Israel War Thread

    in General Discussion Forum

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, acrashb said:

    Israel says it was a Hamas rocket that fell short, as 30-40% do, so I'm told.  As they are somewhat home made, it's a credible number.

    So maybe best to reserve judgement for a bit.

    Hi did.  He also noted the "... myth of six million dead jews in WW2 ...."  So, not a serious person.  Blocked him some time ago.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Russian telgrammers report an attack on the Berdyansk airfield:

    https://t.me/fighter_bomber/14410

    Quote

    It's not a good morning.
    At night, the crests attacked our airfield where the Army Aviation was based with ATACMS missiles.
    One of the most serious blows of all time in the Northern Military District. If not the most serious.
    There are losses in both people and technology.
    It’s pointless to write about the fact that “we need to draw conclusions so that this doesn’t happen again.” This will happen again as long as the war continues. We must be prepared for this.

    https://t.me/dva_majors/27536
     

    Quote

    The missile attack on the Berdyansk airfield was massive. Our comrades also report the possible use of this type of missile, and the use of cluster munitions is also mentioned. The number of missiles fired from the ground is estimated to be no less than 40, although this may be a subjective estimate.

    The negative experience of developing and protecting our airfields was not taken into account.

    Two majors
    Telegram
    Turned on the Z war🇷🇺
    By all indications, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Berdyansk at night using American ATACMS missiles.

     

    5

    Israel War Thread

    in General Discussion Forum

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Lethaface said:

    If it is only hammering while the situation stays the same it is guaranteed to repeat in a dozen years orso. Unfortunately people seem to forget about that until it happens again and again.

    Not great, but I've heard Israeli's calling it "mowing the grass".

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

    That is questionable. The lack of ZSU  SHORAD is what enabled the RUS helos. But when UKR got a counter tactic in place (I believe they pushed MANPAD teams further forward, plus (I assume) better integration with local ISR and mech AAD), the KA slowly backed off. 

    RUS however has a much stronger tactical AA/AD envelope.  Unless ZSU does an focussed anti-AD campaign similar to the HIMARSing of RUS arty then UKR helos will die like flies in a furnace. 

    If the Ukrainians are currently, successfully, lofting unguided rockets from Mi-8 helicopters with an effective range of 3-4 km, you don't think they would benefit from Longbow Apache's that can launch fire-and-forget Hellfire missiles with a range of 8 km?

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-military-demonstrated-hydra-rockets-on-ukrainian-helicopters/
     

    Quote

    Ukrainian aviation uses Hydra rockets to conduct distant strikes by low-toss firing. Their effective range when shooting in this mode reaches 3 to 4 kilometers, depending on the rocket modification and the helicopter’s flight parameters, such as speed and altitude.

     

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    8 hours ago, paxromana said:

    Get shot down only slightly less easily?

    I thought we'd agreed that Attack Helicopters ... indeed, any Helicopter near the front ... was now more a liability than an asset?

    Were you following the events this summer in Ukraine's counter-offensive?

    If Ukraine had helicopters equipped with long-range hellfire missiles, they could also do what the Russians have been doing to Ukraine's armored assaults.

    https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf
     

    Quote

    The use of attack aviation has posed a consistent challenge for Ukrainian forces
    throughout the counteroffensive. The foremost threat comes from Ka-52 Alligators
    firing Vikhr and Ataka ATGMs. However, the Russians have also begun mounting
    Ataka on Mi-35Ms, which also engage in area-effect strikes utilising salvos of
    lofted S-8 rockets. Aviation strikes are launched from a depth of approximately
    8–10 kilometres from the target. Ukrainian forces note that the presence of
    attack aviation is often heralded by the lifting of GPS jamming among Russian
    formations, reflecting the need for precise navigation in order to coordinate
    strikes, given that both armies are using many of the same platforms. Russian
    helicopter groups are also often flying with an EW-equipped helicopter for
    defensive purposes, equipped with directional pods aimed at targeting radar.
    The Russians are having to keep helicopters relatively close to the front, making
    their forward arming and refuelling points and other infrastructure vulnerable.
    Nevertheless, shortage of Ukrainian tactical air defence, the low altitude
    maintained by these assets, and the limited period during which they are in the
    hover to deliver effects all make countering attack aviation difficult.

     

    1

    Israel War Thread

    in General Discussion Forum

    Posted · Edited by cesmonkey

    A reasonably insightful analysis/opinion piece from the American Yorktown Institute think tank arguing that Israel can't over- commit to a Gaza operation to the detriment of exposing it's northern flank.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4255065-israel-must-look-northward-and-resist-taking-irans-bait/
    Israel must look northward and resist taking Iran’s bait
     

    Quote

    A Gaza operation would be immensely costly for the IDF. It would require somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 men, likely the majority of them active-duty soldiers — that is, the most effective maneuver forces of the IDF as it currently stands. It would also be a bloodbath. Urban operations require extensive planning and reconnaissance to map enemy strongpoints and mitigate casualties in ferocious close-combat. They are also long-term and manpower- and materiel-intensive, at least when they have more than limited objectives. 

     

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