FancyCat

Tbh it’s just a flag being waved, I hope her village recognizes her regret and isnt too harsh on her. Tho I saw Ukraine has been investigating pro-Russian social media postings by Ukrainians. On one hand, on the other, you do need to ensure they aren’t stirring the pot. War always make these questions impossible to answer vs in peace. I believe the soldier who stomped on the flag in the video wished that she won’t be too socially punished for her actions. Also, apparently they made up in a sort of way after the incident, but the video spread out anyway. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/16/maybe-the-lord-himself-sent-me

Goddamn I did not realize Ukraine was asking for essentially the entire artillery of the U.S x2.

Tbh aside from the physical elimination part for administrators in occupied regions, which I doubt will occur, not sure anything else Haiduk said is sinister. Of course collaboration needs to be punished (Ukraine abolished death penalty anyway no?), it’s war, full scale war unseen since the Balkans for Europeans, increasingly shown as a war of imperial conquest and erasure of Ukrainian identity. Why are you surprised at Haiduk and others anger? As for Crimea, those Baltic restrictions, don’t they have terms for non-citizens to gain citizenship? Those terms according to wiki are quite fine to me. I am not sure why you think some form of collective guilt is bad. It is important for society to have self-reflection and collective responsibility (Germany a prime example). Putin may have ordered the war, but Russia as a whole goes along with it, a war that has shocked European consciousness unlike anything since the Balkan wars or even 1945 as far back. A war seen as unthinkable, for the simple idea that many in the West believed Russia and Ukraine were “brotherly nations” yet somehow Putin was able to get Russia to launch a full scale attempt to seize all of Ukraine and annex it wholly, with the idea of erasing Ukraine as a nation and forcing Ukrainians into a Russian identity, well certainly Putin didn’t make it so that this could occur on his own. Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia had a right to assert to militarily intervene to assert the Russian language be allowed in Ukraine by stating what the UK would do in response to Ireland banning English, or Belgium banning French, Except that is a pile of horse****, in this modern time, no European nation would invade another over language rights! That Lavrov chose to mention Ireland is astoundingly on the nose considering Ireland tossed the British imperial chokehold on their country and certainly if you asked the Irish or anyone in Europe if Ireland had the right to tell Britain to go **** itself before breakfast and after dinner everyday, the answer would have been a resounding affirmation for Ireland doing so, so why does Russia feel like it can tell Ukraine what to do, and why does Russia think inflicting a full scale war is a valid justification of Ukraine banning Russian? (Which it didn’t do anyhow) it would be like Britain attempting to reconquer Ireland over Ireland mandating Gaelic, a absolutely ridiculous notion to consider Britain having the right to do so, and would be rightly considered a British attempt at regaining her lost imperial status over Ireland and yet Lavrov is I dunno, stupid, or just unaware, or horridly too aware of how stupid and outdated the reasoning sounds.

Most of the Russian elite including those ridiculous tv personalities railing against the West have assets, homes, citizenships in the West so its funny as hell to hear them lambast the West even as they fight to retain their assets, homes and access to the West privately.

Didn't we see EW units moving out during the initial stages of the invasion? I wonder if the length and extent of the frontlines made it harder for EW to occur during this maneuver stage vs now. Can't they use pontoon bridges? On that note, does Ukraine have any ability for crossing rivers? If not, wouldn't it be more likely it would be harder for Ukraine to do a offensive than Russia to do a offensive across rivers?

Thank you for correcting me. So he lost his business? What happened to him since then?

Not only are people who are pro-ukrainian basically pushed out, It is long standing policy to russify a region, or to "get rid of" uncooperative elements in the regions Russia wants and import friendlier replacements. The Crimean Tatars are a prime example, they got eradicated from Crimea in the middle of the war! Their population has since been never able to reach the percentage of the Crimean population since then. So obviously there will be fearful civilians in Donbas, Crimea and the occupied regions who dread the return of Ukraine, everyone who remained who is pro-Ukrainian either managed to lay low or got "filtered" and we know from what happened in the previously occupied regions of Ukraine what happens to those getting filtered, (and that **** started after merely a few days and weeks of occupation!! Imagine the suffering in the longer held regions!) and certainly the mass graves in Kherson do not bring good hope. Basically, don't talk about the security and well-being of civilians when Ukraine retakes the territory without acknowledging the ethnic cleansing going on under Russian control. Russia will and is relying on ignorance of it's actions in the occupied regions of Ukraine to assert that Ukraine will be undertaking hostile and unbecoming actions towards civilians and that instances of return of Ukrainian sovereignty will result in repression and therefore Russia has justification for holding on to "pro-Russian" territory in Ukraine and in the event of the war turning, the West should seek a ceasefire rather risk a hostile Ukraine extracting vengeance on these pro-Russian Ukrainians. (Things like the bombing of civilian areas in Donesk, allegedly by Ukraine we saw recently, those are not merely to accuse Ukraine of warcrimes, but to assert that the West risks putting innocent civilians under repression and death should Ukraine retake the occupied regions)

Also the idea that Donbas or Crimea is inherently pro-Russian is ignorant of the displaced internal movements of Ukrainians in response to Russia's seizure of the areas. Of course only the pro-Russian population remains inside Russian controlled areas, the pro-ukrainian population fled in response to repression and violence! The same applies to Crimea. Asking for consideration of the people living in the occupied regions is just ignoring the many people who left the occupied regions. edit: look at this response , as i am being overly broad and incorrect regarding the situation in Donbas and Crimea.

The longer you wait to retake territory, the harder it is to justify it. Ukraine, assuming it can retake her pre-invasion borders, would be foolish to not move further and attempt to take back Crimea and Donbas. Ukraine has moral legitimacy, Ukraine has the backing of the West, this opportunity to settle and regain her borders without Russia seriously penalizing in response will not come again (what more could Russia do now that it has not already done?) As Haiduk put it, the west will eventually decide to equalize the relationship with Russia. Best to retake it now while the West is forced to side with Ukraine. And again, Crimea will remain a dire threat to preventing Ukrainian ports from operating, (not to mention flood Southern Ukraine in a invasion) more so than if Crimea is retaken. While yes, Ukraine can threaten Russia, I think it's best to assume Ukraine will always be disadvantaged vs Russia if nothing else due to risk of nuclear escalation on Russia's part so better to do this now than later.

How much do you suppose the focus on airpower in the west has impacted artillery, particularly in the realm of material being supplied to Ukraine? On that note, do we have any numbers for Russian artillery? At all? I know 10,000 tanks were thrown around, but what about artillery?

Assuming this isn't another instance of Ukraine just no to their visit soon, would mean more weapons and equipment for Ukraine is about to be pledged.

That's a take. I doubt if you asked the Irish if they enjoyed the famines, the answer would be positive. India, I'm sure their famines and deindustrialization aren't taken as a positive. I could go on, but that's some silly stuff, imperial conquest is good, jeez.

Mind you Erdogan is facing a election and he's completely ****ed the economy, this is probably a nationalistic ploy to win votes. While he's veered towards authoritarianism, turkey is still a democracy and he is on the chopping block.

Via Phillip O'Brien, the Ministry of Defense has issued a update regarding foreign assistance to Ukraine. Lots of interesting tidbits, but I'll highlight this:

You know, had the invasion not occurred, i would have largely agreed with you, but....since the invasion has occurred, and suddenly everyone in Europe (aside from the Balkans), must confront the idea of war and military conflict once more, with EE feeling pensive about the faithfulness of its Western European allies, NATO serves to defend Europe, and especially Eastern Europe. For all the idea of Russia suffering massive damage in Ukraine, lets not underscore the fact Ukraine has been severely damaged. No state in EE wants to suffer any of that, and NATO remains the best guarantee at warding off Russian threats. The damage Russia is inflicting on a nation of 44 million people, with hundreds of millions suffering side effects from the economic damage of the food conflict does not endorse your viewpoint.

Well yes nuclear escalation can happen, but there are steps to escalation. stuff like mobilizing the nuclear fleet, placing it on higher alert, actually/pretending to prep for nuclear launch, raising of rhetoric, hell, even conventional attacks are escalatory and are part of the nuclear climb up, in that russia would for example, bomb Poland with a conventional weapon to warn it from pursuing further support of Ukraine or risk more serious, potential nuclear escalation. that Russia has refrained from it, indicates that they dont want to risk escalation, they cant afford to escalate as they lose more, and that they worry the west matches the escalation.

Exactly. If NATO is this enduring threat that Ukraine, whom was nowhere at all close to being allowed in NATO was attacked in a full scale war upon the justification of safeguarding Russian security, than Finland, with it's borders near Russia's major cities and Northern Fleet bases, should garner some sort of escalation, even if ultimately posturing and not real force buildup for a defense/offense of the region. That Russia's reply is a muted "shrug" or the Russian public whom Ukraine's invasion was justified as partly avoiding NATO encirclement gives no regard to Finland joining NATO as a credible threat just tells everyone worried about Russian escalation that their reasoning was a lie. If the Russian public, supposedly very worried about NATO expanding and invading, gives no regard to Finland joining, yes Russians may be annoyed at NATO encroaching, pissed, but this betrays that Russia actually does not fear NATO and speaks instead to Russia's fear of NATO limiting Russian interference in their backyard.

I mean hell, consider two months ago Ukraine was asking for anti-ship missiles and people were fretting over sinking a Russian ship and Russian escalation and now? Nada, Ukraine's Neptunes defend Odessa and UK and US are increasingly likely to supply more anti-ship missiles to Ukraine. We were worried about Ukraine attacking Russia on its own soil and then Ukraine conducts a dashing attack on a oil facility with helicopters and now every so often a ammo dump on Russia's side of the border blows up and nada, we barely hear about it on the news. Caesar SPGs? Nada. U.S MLRS? Nada. Broaching armed UAVs. Nada. During the beginning of the war, we were fretting over Stingers and NLAWs in Ukrainian hands and now we are supplying Rocket, SPG, long range anti-ship missile systems. We never gave Afghanistan close to anything this advanced after 10 years of occupation and nation building (I reference Afghanistan as it's a common refrain for those opposed to arming Ukraine), and in 4 months Ukraine is getting all this. Clearly the pattern is in the positive for Ukraine, and I think Ukraine is well aware of the pattern and I think the fact that Russia has been unwilling or unable to stem it illustrates it is the right decision to undertake.

While Germany is doing gods knows what, other NATO partners are supplying artillery to Ukraine. Hopefully before winter aircraft will be supplied, (tho no indications at all this will occur) while obviously the situation is painful for Ukraine right now, Russia cannot afford to suffer losses that it cannot replace, and to be this slow on the offensive. Russia was supposed to have used artillery to break a hole to stream armored and mechanized units into Ukraine's rear and destroy their supply lines. This should have been what occurred at the beginning of the war, that Russia is reduced to this WWI grinding mass is just pitiful. That President Zelensky can visit a sailent while 10 Russian generals are dead so far is just damning of Russia. I am confident NATO will continue to supply increasing and more advanced weapon systems to Ukraine. Russia has so far been unable to stem the tide of western weapons to Ukraine and with each passing week and month, they have risen in complexity and amount. (Forget Germany tho even the promised equipment is rising in technology wise) No real ability to stop the movement of equipment to Ukraine, no risk of escalation by attacking and daring NATO retaliation by attacking the airfields where the supplies land. NATO is about to be enlarged, such that Russia will virtually face a "hostile" force that directly threatens the Northern Fleet bases and nada in terms of escalation. If I were a cautious NATO member, worried about nuclear war, I'm seeing Russia basically conceding that the weapon shipments are not worth escalation, I'm watching Finland about to give NATO clear approaches to Russia's northern flank and Russia giving barely a peep and I'm watching Russia reduced to WWI combat grind when prior to the war, where we were dreaming of Russian tanks reaching Berlin! If I were Scholz, I'm sweating over the fact that my "fear" of nuclear war over German tanks in Ukraine is just poof, nothing, and how to explain to a increasingly emboldened opposition and coalition my untenable positions.

And yet Putin when asked about the Swedish and Finnish attempt to join NATO, said it changed nothing strategically for Russia. Clearly now that the risk of NATO coming closer nears, Russia does nothing like push troops to the Finnish border, that it would do if NATO were really a threat to Russia.

How much credibility does Business Insider have in Germany? Seriously doubtful about the M270s unless more sources confirm the excuse.

Turkey.

Regarding Turkey and Ukraine and Russia, the grain must flow. both to sustain ukraine's export industry, and feed the world, i hope Ukraine will take the deal, even if mines are removed, and apparently, Russia is demanding the right of inspection over the ships inbound to Odessa. That I don't think should be agreed to, but the grain needs to go. Hopefully, as part of the concessions to Ukraine, Ukraine can get more anti-ship missiles, and anything else NATO has been resisting to hand over so far. Maybe some goddamn tanks.... edit: this bloomberg article says Zelensky wants weapons in return for the opening of Odessa. so, i think the mines in the sea lane are not vital for sea defense, and this is a good way of getting more guns from NATO in return. whether, Russia actually intends to open the sealane remains more uncertain. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/ukraine-cautious-as-turkey-russia-push-black-sea-grain-deal

Kamil Galeev has a interesting point regarding Putin and discontent in Russian society. Dunno if it pans out but hey, I'll trust Kamil on it. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1533868061014511621.html