FancyCat

No offense but everyone seems to have forgotten COVID, and while Western countries have to robust healthcare systems and vaccines aplenty, that does not apply universally, so for the duration of the pandemic, many countries with lower wealth were forced into economically devastating lockdowns to preserve their medical systems, and the lives of their citizens while inflicting much economic damage. This continues with China, recall the amount of things made in China, then recall their lockdowns which essentially freeze entire metropolitan regions for a decent period of time, Supply shock shortages are the cause of inflation. Always has been since COVID began. You cannot expect the world to maintain Just in time logistics and not see increased costs from the massive disruptions in shipping, manufacturing, transit. The fact that seemingly inflation is rising despite the "end of covid" ignores the fact China literally still have Shanghai locked down, so all that disruption of shipping, logistics, manufacturing is still ongoing. Active oil production was not impacted by the Biden administration. Our oil industry is privately owned, not controlled by the government. That means what's good for the government (lower oil costs) isn't good for oil companies. Oil industry isn't drilling, isn't capitalizing on expanding oil production in order to ensure higher oil prices stay for longer, ensuring more profit. A auction of land for oil production exploration expired with no bidders. Food prices, I don't think many here appreciate the situation, increasing food costs affect the poor the most and after the economically dire impact of COVID on many poorer countries, rising food costs and the production of food will only pile more burden on them. Arab Spring comes to mind. 100% the west needs to reopen Ukraine and ensure it's victory, not in the least to support global stability.

One reason why I appreciate Galeev and why I think he's worth listening to despite some detractors that are Russian experts, is partly cause he is from a ethnic minority in Russia, the Volga Tatars. What better way to see rot in Russian society than those of it's under status who lived it? Your not likely going to get the same analysis as Galeev from a Russia expert soaked in Russophilia or a Russian in the opposition. The war has not been able to impact wealthier Russians yet. If Russia begins mobilization, I'm certain the wealthy will escape conscription, and certainly that will drive the minority and poor resentment to the government.

Isn't there indication that support for war is much softer than one would think? That when faced with much more frightening realities, instead of doubling down, Russia might well blink due to the fact the population has not been prepped for a actual war with Ukraine? Yes, lots of bluster from Russia and Russian population but ain't no one volunteering....the volunteers are already mobilized. There wasn't some overwhelming patriotism that causes enlistment to rise was there? It's easy to deny Ukraine is a potent force, when Crimea is threatened, will look much different.

Nothing would pierce the Russian narrative or bolster Ukrainian resolve more then retaking Kherson, destroying Russian hopes for a puppet republic in Southern Russia. Retaking Kherson would indicate to the Ukrainian population that their country's ability to defend them is secure, and the calculations for those inclined to cooperate with Russia will substantially decline for Russia. Would also be very disastrous for Russia domestically and internationally. There isn't any evasive arguments for Russia giving up Kherson, unlike Kiev, Kharkov.

Interesting, TDF on the heaviest parts of the front, its one thing for TDF to be placed in secondary fronts, but right in Donbas? Obviously I understand the regular army isn't big enough to staff the entire length of the front, but damn. Is this a newer video, or the original video floating around pro-Russian channels about UKR forces refusing to fight due to lack of equipment and support?

A very good thing about the Neptune sinking the Moskva is that Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to sink Russian warships using their own home-grown weaponry, in the same manner towed artillery, soviet-era tanks and AA systems are considered not as escalatory cause they are merely adding to Ukrainian capability and not necessarily new capability/technology, that Russia can point and feasibly denounce with any traction. Any Russian shouting at the top of their lungs at another warship being sunk by a Harpoon, and Ukraine will need to merely point out Russian warships were already reaching the bottom of the sea, nothing "escalatory" about the Harpoons.

While its unfortunate it is occurring, I am under the impression, that Russia continuing to attack, and spending combat power on costly offensives is more beneficial to Ukraine in the long run than full shift to defense. As long as Ukraine does not wholly collapse, and is prepped for defensive fighting in depth, draining Russian combat power is vital for any future Ukrainian offensive no? Longer thread than just below.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-tells-zelenskiy-french-arms-deliveries-ukraine-will-intensify-2022-05-17/ Macron has promised more aid to Ukraine is inbound. I still think France's military industrial complex is lapping at Macron (I doubt he needs much convincing) to let them supply Ukraine and hook them to French armaments. It would very shortsighted for France to neglect Ukraine in favor of Russia relations in my opinion.

Moscow Times has condensed the reported attacks on recruitment offices for the Russian military.

OSINT community is quite useful, even if it seems like nationalistic bickering sometimes. Conclusion further down but oryx is doing quite well basically.

Politico is also a notorious political gossip rag in the U.S so color me skeptical on anything they write. There was a slight worry Poland would get themselves condemned and isolated by the EU for defending and being alongside Orban and turning anti-democratic, but I'm hoping with Russia reminding Europe and Poland where to point the sword towards, Poland cools off and recognizes its place in the EU as part of a strong EE bloc is much better than trying to do whatever the hell its doing with its judiciary.

Not too concerned about Germany, Italy, France being cowardly at this time, dunno about France or Italy, but Germany's coalition government is divided, Ukraine can pull public opinion levers in the same manner it did for the heavy weaponry, the Greens and opposition look like they are willing to hit Scholz in the face for political gain. Eastern Europe holds firm behind Ukraine, the UK, the U.S the same. But this does underscore, Ukraine does not have all day to pursue the liberation of all Ukrainian territory. A stalemate will have Ukraine win eventually but. Nobody likes supporting a stalemate. Everybody can support a winner. But I have no doubt there are still doubters who think Russia can hold and cause a repeat of the Donbas. If Germany, France and Italy think Russia can still cause a stalemate, they don't want to be forced away from Russian gas and oil forever. The longer that war continues, the more likely the states cannot back off a ban, which has not yet occurred. Therefore, a ceasefire that in their minds was always going to occur due to a stalemate happens sooner, "saves lives" and avoids the difficult problem of supporting Ukraine further and having to ban energy imports from Russia. I think Ukraine needs to finish this war by the end of the year. Ukraine must pursue offensives despite costing lives earlier than later, than let Russia regain initiative diplomatically and argue for ceasefire and solidification of the lines.

Obviously, I'm not ukrainian, but I think they did their duty and beyond, they deserve every chance at survival. I never got the Russians boasting about the Snake Island defenders surrendering instead of dying to the last person, don't you want your fellow citizens living (maybe to fight another day) or just simply living instead of dead?

I've been pondering the increase in the frontline assuming Ukraine expands across the east of the Donets, its kind of insane, that the potential for Ukraine to turn Kup'yans'k into a frontline contested town is possible. Iyzum, assuming the Russians haven't been scrambling to move stuff east of the Oskii, becomes this pocket for Ukraine to hit on 3 sides. Putin better have some reserves to push to defend the Donets river cause wtf, you just let them in, like there must be Russian forces covering the entire river span.....right?

I recall the notion that DNR and LPR were just full of pro-Russians at this point, while certainly political resistance would continue if it continue following Ukraine's liberation of the territory, i have a feeling there won't be any military or violent resistance. So how much of a traitor is someone who collaborated with Russia, do you suppose? Has the option for leaving Russian controlled territory for Ukraine controlled territory been in the past, doable for civilians to undertake? Or was the border locked down such that wasn't gonna happen and if you were in the DNR/LPR, that was it, no hope of leaving for Kiev? Or could you have simply gone to Russia and then crossed again into Ukraine?

Tbh i kinda assumed Ukraine would be able to cross the river, as their forces are substantially more "light infantry" than Russian forces. (I know nothing about the river or fordability) Also, with how the DNR and LPR forces are near worthless, unless Russia pulled in actual Russian units, I'm sure they can ford it fine. Now if they got mechanized or armor units across, or maybe they still have a intact bridge, sure, Russia failed spectacularly.

If Russia is saying it, worthless paper.

satellite availability is such a boon for OSINT.

There were reports of Ukrainian politicians and military officers fleeing their posts at the beginning of the war, and Zelensky called out two of them for being traitors and stripping them of their rank. Most likely they sabotaged and handed information over to Russia to facilitate the advance in the South. One of them was head of the SBU in Kherson. Not sure how important the other one was, but I'm assuming the head of SBU in Kherson is a nice asset to turn. I'm amazed they didn't have more traitors, or that Zelensky didn't get killed in Kiev at the beginning of the war. https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1090253301/zelenskyy-generals-traitors-ukraine

Assuming the takes given in this thread are correct, if a pile of wargamers can see the writing on the wall, surely Russian strategists can see that losing Crimea and Donbas is worse than general mobilization? The longer they take to pull mobilization trigger, the more time Ukraine has to assemble and begin a offensive Russia can’t stop. surely general mobilization won’t cause Russia to collapse immediately. That they seem allergic to war is just mind numbing.

Part of longer thread, but it’s astounding that their fear of general mobilization is forcing them down a even worse path. Their propaganda media justifications must be brittle if after all this time, and they can’t find it cheaper to declare general mobilization and have a chance at freezing the conflict vs this undercover mobilization producing useless conscripts that be grinder into dust by Ukraine. They are burning their reservists and willing personnel piecemeal.

Whatever softness about the West on Crimea, had more to do with appeasing Putin and the assumption Putin and co weren't insane enough to seize all of Ukraine, and that their rhetoric was, simply rhetoric. Since that **** is proven false, I think the West's opinion on Crimea and Donbas will harden, we already have statements from the G7 stating that recognition of the seizures of Ukrainian territory in either area will not occur. Whatever Russians think of Crimea, it really comes down to the fact it was only taken 8 years ago. Political apathy also abounds in Russia, the loss of Crimea and the included realization Russia has been militarily defeated will not result in Russians seeking to nuke the world to death, but to rearm and avenge the loss, and punish those who failed. The internal clashing in Russia will certainly mean crazy orders won't be followed.

The State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research was notably one of the only IC agencies to dissent that Iraq had WMDs.

Crimea was taken in 2014, in less than 10 years (8 to be exact), they make out like a bandit by being able to claim a region as worth risking nuclear war and getting it legitimated? Hell no. Might as well just declare the same for Donbas. Hell, why not heartened them to hold Kherson while your at it? Same principle applies, just ethnic cleanse the hell outta it and claim ignorance 3 months down the line.