FancyCat

Why hit the railways when you can hit the ammo dumps at the end and cause tons of social media chatter as the skies darken from the smoke and flames?

O'Brien lays out why this attack is so bad for Russia. Putting parts of it below.

I want to bring up from my prior post the assessment by the U.S on Russian logistics. Is this a Russian logistical failing or a Soviet failing, the reference of a lack of doctrine on munitions and safe storage has me quite perplexed that the "2nd most advanced" military in the world stores ammo like this.

Better to pretend these are civilian targets, for PR internationally and to hopefully convince the public that Russia isn't losing valuable supplies needed to defend.

If we review the wiki article on the New Union Treaty, the attempt to maintain the USSR, the majority of potential members are independent states now, with smaller number still part of Russia.amd being quite small geographically. Not sure whatever remained part of Russia till today is viable as a potential state to engage in either catastrophic or negotiated collapse. Maybe engage in seeking more devolved powers but remaining as a federal subject of Russia. This devolved conflict I think would be much less worrisome than the feared 1991 breakup scenarios. In essence, Russia decays slowly with no fear of actual collapse.

I think I found it. Two things stand out significantly for me, one, his invoking of the Spanish Empire but he did not elaborate on it I believe. Two, he does not in the thread go into detail on why the same sort of factors generated the breakup of the Soviet union don't apply here (mass action, etc, but I will say Russia socially does not nearly look close to 1991 Soviet Union in dissent and protests so I'm inclined to support that the Russian people will not attempt to change the course) He does point out that fraying economic ties and political elites attempting to make up for it will cause the factors for breakup later down the line. I know nothing about the exact circumstances of how regions interact in Russia so I am assuming he understands it more as a native. His mention of the division between the mainlanders and the colonial subjects in the Spanish Empire, I do think there can be comparisons to the way Moscow exists with the other regions in Russia. Spain of course had the collapse of basically all central authority and the large amount of wars that occurred, while perhaps this is how Russia falls apart, I don't see how the central authority collapses in such a manner as Spain to cause active military conflicts to arise and again, the people look unlikely to cause central authority collapse.

Russia actually never wanted the Donbas annexed into Russia, what Russia wanted was leverage to prevent the Ukrainian state strengthening, and to ensure Russian influence persisted in Ukraine (case in point Crimea was annexed quick as hell). Now, if the 2022 invasion had been successful, maybe in some far off future, Russia might have annexed the Donbas, but only as part of a broader project absorbing the rest of Ukraine. The pre-2/24 borders that one could see maybe Russia and Ukraine reach a compromise are actually absolutely defeats for Russia, that cannot be waved away domestically. 2/24 if you remember means Ukraine still retains control of parts of the two republics claimed de jure borders, and especially with Putin claiming such lofty goals like denazification, demilitarization, not to mention dreams of New Russia, and explicit immediate goals of liberating the republics territories still occupied by Ukraine, 2-24 is impossible for Russia to agree to as it is clear defeat. Also, 2-24 precludes major land important (economically) portions of those Oblasts, and economically not whole, both are utterly useless to Russia, annexing them may unlock economic gains (doubt) but that would remove the lever on Ukraine. 2-24, the same reason Russia cannot accept it as a peace point, Ukraine cannot accept 2-24, for the fact that Russia still holds a lever to interfere in Ukraine via the republics if the republics are not annexed. Ukraine cannot cede any land and so the existence of the Republics poses a threat to Ukraine, more so than if annexed into Russia. But again, Russia will not annex useless territories. So 2-24 is sorta impossible so either Ukraine or Russia to formalize a agreement around. (Maybe a stalemate, but that would involve skirmishes, active military conflict) 2-24 is impossible from a negotiation standpoint, and if Ukraine reaches 2-24 from a military standpoint, there isn't a argument, I see for Russia being able to stabilize the front to prevent Ukraine from pushing further beyond 2-24 if Ukraine has reached the point of the 2-24 borders.

Kamil had made several threads detailing Russian collapse scenarios, one was a loss of centralization but slowly and not as chaotic as one would think. I can't find it anymore but I find it useful since so far Russian broader society seems unwilling to do anything concerning the war so I'm doubting they will overthrow Putin or insist on reforms. Likely it will be infighting among the political class.

In a interview with The Times, Defense Minister Reznikov makes clear (unless its a bluff) that Kherson is the site of the Ukrainian counter offensive. Makes sense, Ukraine has been slowly itching its way towards the city itself, the location of it on the far bank of the Dnipro makes it hard for Russia to defend, the limited crossing points make it very easy for Ukraine to defend the region once retaken, as the only capital of a Oblast taken by Russia in the 2022 invasion, it has been given significant significance by Russian occupation authorities for a future Novorossiya, retaking it will shatter the image of Russian victory domestically and worldwide. Especially worldwide, Russia argues partly conflict is meaningless, as its superiority makes it impossible for Ukraine to regain, and promotes pro-ceasefire, negotiations, and status quo solidification of the occupied territories. No other frontline nearing city has as much significance as Kherson, holding Lysychansk for 4 months will not equal the damage to Russia the retaking of Kherson will inflict. Hopefully this will occur sooner than later.

Interesting they targeted a police base. Rosgvardia units don’t appear on battlefield anymore right, beyond those columns in the first waves? Some assistance to the partisan units is nice to see occurring. im mulling over what happens next for Kherson. The warnings by high level Ukrainian government officials indicate a battle for Kherson, the question is, is Ukraine going to shut down the nearest passage to Kherson? On one hand, Ukraine needs to stop further Russian reinforcements, on another hand, I’m not sure why they haven’t lobbed something to blow up the nearest bridge yet since that would be top priority so maybe Ukraine hopes to generate enough fear to force Russia to leave the city?

I would say a essential thing to read. A very important tidbit, the utilization of Europe as a safe harbor cannot be underestimated. Ukrainian personnel train without fear of death, Ukrainian equipment is repaired, etc. This is a tanker? Quite good he refers to combined arms warfare with infantry. am I the only one who does a double take at the fact Ukraine offers financial incentives for soldiers to register captured and destroyed equipment? Certainly a common idea, but I feel uncommonly seen in western armies….but if it stops corruption, I’m all for it.

From @5urpher on twitter, no idea if its legit bases, but what a map, OSINT is wow. https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=14Q6WqozGQhpE4KgQr-5zIPNjYiU&ll=48.202766704995796%2C38.00556793133162&z=10

I dunno what the rest of the book says, but with the hindsight of the invasion confirming it, the Donbas has always been merely a lever for influencing the rest of Ukraine. Minsk was a attempt to handicap the Ukrainian state and give Russia a veto in Ukrainian internal affairs. The reason why Russia never wanted to annex Donbas or entertained the republics requests for annexation was actually absorbing it into Russia removes it from leveraging it to damage Ukraine like Bosnia and Republic of Srpska. Crimea they went ahead and annexed it but not Donbas.

Important to note that statement about Donbas being such and such of Ukrainian GDP is most likely incorrect. China and I assume the other country is India? While both are happy to purchase Russian resources, their response to supporting Russia otherwise has been tepid at best, useless at worse. The problem is, it looks like China, despite being supportive of Russia undertaking this war, was not expecting 1. Western resolve to be this firm. 2. Ukrainian resolve to not break. 3. Russia to get bogged down in a conflict absolutely unbecoming of its prior invasion supposed military strength. Before the invasion, the popular refrain was Russian tanks to Berlin. The failure of Russia to destroy the Ukrainian Air Force, destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, supply their armies enough to push into Kiev, and this months long slog in the Donbas more akin to the western front of WWI is entirely unbecoming of Russia’s supposed military prowess before the invasion. Prowess Russia itself asserted was true. Therefore, to say Russia sucks at war is 100% true. When comparing the Effort to control Afghanistan with Ukraine, it would be potent to remember Russia does not equal the Soviet Union, and obviously the USSR included Ukraine. To conflate the Soviet Union capabilities, with Russian capabilities is frankly probably why Russia, and the world has underestimated Ukraine so much and overrated Russia. So much of Soviet strength and power was from her other republics other than Russia, and Ukraine was a essential part of that strength. Without Ukraine, Russia cannot be a Great Power, I believe Putin stated that? Whoever stated that, I think it’s completely true.

Thank you again Grigb for your involvement in the thread, as well as Haiduk and others, your language skills and insights provide so much. I assume the leadership of the republics has been purged sufficiently that any idea of a top down led attempt to bring the republics out of the war and spare further losses and damage is impossible? This idea of using the republics population instead of Russia, speaks a lot to the infeasibility of seeking a peace without the expulsion of Russia from all of Ukraine. A peace where Russia can regroup, rearm, purge and turn the 2022 occupied territories into more bodies for Russia to use against Ukraine, to burn Ukraine into ash, is plainly unacceptable for Ukraine, and should made clear to all proponents of ceasefire, peace, and nonintervention in Ukraine.

A lot has been said about the ability of the Russian people to influence the course of the war, whether to keep pressing forward, or end the invasion, it might be time to ask the same regarding the civilians in the separatist republics now the most prominent sign of the course of the war is artillery striking areas of the republics that to my knowledge were pretty much left unaffected directly till now. How encompassing is the information bubble? Will they double down and insist on defending the republics from being reconquered by Ukraine? Will they seek ceasefire and more peaceful reintegration with Ukraine, sparing their soldiers from death? Or is their ability to influence as curtailed like that of the Russian people now?

Twitter replies indicate this was stupid on the part of the Russian tank moving in the video.

Ukraine has been remarkably restrained in attacking across the border, but i could see raids across the border in response, hopefully Ukraine clamps down on loosely commanded units.

a twitter reply says the Toplovsky monastery is in Crimea, sounds pretty likely this man is from Crimea.

On one hand escalation is bad, on the other, these Russian missiles launched by Russian aircraft from Russian territory are bombarding all of Ukraine.... Interesting how varied these attacks are. Also, quite good we have these high-level bodies returning home for burial, pilots are valuable personnel for Ukraine to kill.

Russia has been forming a 3rd Army Corps, Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod region, alleged by Ukraine, that CIT confirmed.

Ugh, horrible someone could get conscripted into fighting their own country.