FancyCat

This was in response to Poland tearing down Communist monuments. The horrid thing is how they are comparing a cemetery of a massacre vs a monument.

If the Russians were lying to themselves, Western Intelligence whos reading Russian lies, would be imparting the same conclusions as the Russians themselves. I saw this one tweet, I cannot find it again, that noted that the Russian intelligence capability on Ukraine was woeful, and emblematic of how Russia and Russian society sees Ukraine and Ukrainians, from a scholar on Eastern European colonialism and imperialism. I'll pull some quotes since paywalled from this Washington Post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukraine-hubris-isolation/

Sounds quite doable, but Ukrainian deployments to the East, isn't Kharkov a major point to oppose a Russian push from Izyum? Won't they just run into the same units that smashed the northern front and relocated?

Ukraine offered to discuss this further with Russia, over a longer timetable independent of securing a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian forces to the preinvasion lines. ISW has released a update, looks like Moskva indeed was not equipped with missiles to attack land based targets. Still, the withdrawal of the rest of Russian warships from the area indicates their ability to fire at the southern front is degraded. ISW believes Russia will throw forces piecemeal and not wait for a grand offensive, so looks like the May 9th deadline is looking true. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1514986517109907461?t=o_IFpPX1I5eQ4KRl_Xq6Lw&s=19

So far Ukraine has seemingly offered a return to the pre-invasion borders as perfectly acceptable for ending the war. I don't think Russia will retreat and give up the territory taken for peace, for one, one of the reasons for intervention was the security of the separatist republics, and restoration of their de jure borders which have not been accomplished. Two, Mariupol needs to be kept. three, with the shiny new equipment Ukraine got, the Russian position pre-invasion is much worse than before if the lines shift back to before. If Russia has returned to earth, their objective is to hold what they have and force a ceasefire where their forces remain on whatever ground they hold. That's the most realistic position Russia will attempt to accomplish imo.

I want to underscore that much of Russian basis for the invasion was based on a completely false premise that, well...it was a rotten house that would collapse with a good shove. It seems clear that the West, Russia, probably every major nation did not regard Ukraine's ability to resist would be this good or Russian war making be this bad. The West, in the most Ukrainian leaning sense seems to have merely regarded it as the beginning to Afghanistan, where occupation ended after decades of bleeding. Russia seems to have completely shut their ears and just believed their lies about Ukraine not being a real nation and not worth it to the population to resist Russian control. (I hesitate to call it lies, it's simply clear they actually believed it to be true, this is akin to at least being a sort of Suez Crisis for Russia, in that their imperial myth is being shattered before their eyes) Now if the basis of Russia's premise was true, the economic, intelligence power of the west wouldn't have mattered for ****. The Ukrainian government would have collapsed, Zelensky would have fled to Poland, sections of the Ukrainian military and government would have turned traitor. Europe would have probably just shrugged and levied minor sanctions. I deeply wonder what Russia took from the end of the American-backed Afghanistan government if anything.

If you recall the videos of a BTR fighting in Mariupol that took out several Russian vehicles, including a tank preoccupied with fighting infantry, I'm gaining a big appreciation for the way Battlefront games stimulates morale, experience and especially suppression. There isn't a lot on the gaming market that let's you reflect Russian soldiers don't want to fight actions without tank support, or that Russian tankers are too overwhelmed to notice a BTR in front of them. It's one thing to read about a German force being suppressed in a book on WWII, another thing entirely to get HD footage of a BTR taking out tanks buttoned down, or TDF being suppressed by machine gun fire. Obviously I think we all wish this never happened, and we could have lived in ignorance of Russian and Ukrainian large scale combat capabilities forever but it's going to be interesting to see how a future Combat Mission shows the conflict. (Or maybe more apt to say how scenario and mod packs do it depending on your design decisions) Haven't been able to play any modern combat games since this started admittedly. God willing, Russia leaves sooner than later.

Ukraine has more night vision equipment than Russia apparently. (Uh anyone think that Russia not being able to do night fighting is just insanely disappointing?) Anyone notice the big chunk of Ukrainian partisans on the ISW map, I think that's Melitopol. Now I don't think ISW is willy nilly covering convoys being blown up map wise with big chunks of contested land so maybe this uprising in Melitopol is substantial enough to contest the city and require reinforcements? https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1514758998221901827?t=s19c7-kNPsMdVP57qFPxYw&s=19

So true, a attack from Izyum into JFO will have Kharkov stabbing them in the back. Really a push on Dnipro is impossible without Kharkov. I guess the question is what's their deployment of units in the area of Kharkov? I believe the reports are that Russia is prepping for a new offensive on Kharkov.

JFO looks solid as hell. Throwing themselves against that fortified region sounds like a recipe for disaster. Best to take their rear from north and south. Notably, with the weather and mud, Ukraine's road networks pretty much have cities and towns as nexus points, and like the Kiev front shows, keeping them isolated and bypassed requires troops Russia does not really have. Now the question is, does Kherson fall before the Russian offensive kicks off? If Kherson falls, with the Black Sea Fleet out of action, can Ukraine threaten Melitopol? If so, there's a chance the southern piercer never kicks off. Also, what the hell is Russia thinking? End the bridges over the Dnipro. The idea that Russia has been holding back that many pro-russian analysts have suggested falls completely flat when Russia can't disrupt the transit west to east. As far as I can tell, there is a completely unbroken road network from Lviv to Dnipro. Russia has bridge layers, Ukraine? Does not? I really want to know if Ukraine has lost S300 systems, or if Russia is lying. Obviously Ukraine will seek to hide that loss immensely. So far the way their sorties are slowing down, indicates a pause, rest, but if they want to succeed at the new offensive, they will need to up their sorties much more soon no? Or do you suppose the S300s are still contesting the sky? So I've seen conflicting info about the Moskva, did it carry missiles used in targeting land based targets or was it purely acting as a fleet anti-air platform?

I wonder how the naval personnel who defected in 2014 feel about the course of the war, 8 years later, do any of the former Ukrainian navy still serve in Crimea or the Black Sea Fleet? If Turkish, or Romanian ships had to rescue sailors, I really hope we get some photos of the warship soon.

Russians got high off their own supply? I would like to ask, whats the possibility Ukraine lets Russia envelop further and then simply keeps draining their flanks? As long as they hold the JFO and its fortified areas, why not let Russia keep advancing narrow road bound pushes? https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1514665548646391812?s=20&t=Z4KlXL594xoZqwuOVOTMAA https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/trump-putin-and-the-paradox-of-propaganda.html

According to this article, Operation Mars was intended as a false flag: https://www.rbth.com/history/332003-most-successful-soviet-intelligence-operation Looks like future access to Soviet archives in Russia is gone again....

We have specific amounts, not sure how to embed tweets... 11 MH-17s, 18 155mm Howitzers, 400k artillery rounds, 10 AN/TPQ-36 counter artillery radars, 200 M113 APCs, 2 AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars, 100 armored high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles, 300 switchblades, unmanned coastal defense vessels?? https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1514316351703330829?t=G6wjHjVieG5wG-0kQ0byiA&s=19

Something to note, prior to war Russia provided a demand for NATO forces to pull back to the 1997 borders, in effect giving up Eastern Europe. The ability for the West to negotiate out of this crisis basically required impossible preconditions that would have ended the NATO alliance.

You know the funny thing is, Russia did pretty well in carrying out Maskirovka, in deceiving France and Germany and their populations in concealing their intentions of annexing Ukraine, and in countering American and British warnings about what was coming. Maybe too well. I think the shock of what Russian intentions truly were, had a big impact on shifting German public opinion on Russia and Ukraine. Maybe there was no other way of keeping Germany from shifting her foreign policy and military policy after invading, but I have no doubt Russia delivered the equivalent of a knife into the back of Germany in terms of destroying public and government consensus on Russia. Germany had always betted on increasing economic ties with Russia to be key to ending Russian aggression. The fact that Russia undertook a full scale invasion with a intent of annexing all of Ukraine plays too close to German history to ignore. Had Russia only undertook a operation to kick Ukraine out of the contested oblasts, no doubt this public and government change have been more limited.

The reason why I am emphasizing how their rhetoric and propaganda impacts their decision making is that most analysts have assumed it was just packaged koolaid for the Russian population/foreign consumption and Putin isn't actually a believer. If the man is truly dying, or aware of his own mortality, if he truly believes in the Russian imperial project, he indeed needs to strike now, before Ukraine gets stronger, and not merely continue the chunk biting previously. Chunk biting won't secure his legacy. Something else to emphasize, Russian imperialist rhetoric emphasizes Ukraine is key to a Russian Imperial revival. Russia without Ukraine's population, Ukraine's resources is not a viable Russian Empire. If the actual goal is to freeze Ukraine out of NATO and EU, cause chaos in Ukraine, limited invasion, taking chunks of Ukraine in small bits accomplishes the goals of doing so. I'm no military oriented person but I would say destroying the Ukrainian military via a limited invasion would have played much better to Russian doctrine than this full scale invasion. Limited invasion and Western sanctions would have been of limited impact. This is why I don't believe that the goal was merely to show off Russian power or anything short of Russian annexation of Ukraine cause a limited invasion would have served those above stated "real" goals of Russia nicely and with much less risk. No, I think it's very clear that Russia's stated goals are truly it's goals. That when Putin declares the Ukrainian state as illegitimate, and the Ukrainian people as being misled ethnic Russians, I think he believes in it 100%. This is why many people were thrown off about this occurring in the first place. A true believer in the righteousness of their cause is much more different than a power hungry realist.

Imo, this illustrates that Russia still hopes to conquer all of Ukraine, yes I'm sure many Russian analysts are aware it is impossible, but in the same vein that Russia undertook the option most unlikely to succeed and therefore the most dangerous, outlandish and unthinkable to occur in a full scale invasion of Ukraine, I think we underestimate just how screwed up Putin/Russian government is calculating the odds right now. I know Putin has a aura of being right, but part of it isn't just choosing right, it's also knowing when to walk away. Had he chosen a limited invasion, he probably could have taken the rest of the contested oblasts, damaged the Ukrainian military heavily, kept his own forces intact largely, and limited Western involvement. Rinse, repeat every few years, boil the frog. Also, a limited invasion would have damaged the hell out of Zelensky's government, by forcing a calculation between peace or heavy fighting. Full scale invasion with overly loud signals of full annexation and of near genocidal intent for the Ukrainian population, the frog is jumping out. Meshes well with reports that many Ukrainians were shocked this invasion happened (tho I will readily accept being wrong if resident Ukrainians chime in)

Wow I completely forgot about that. France is dearly protective of their defence industry, it must kill them to be so sidelined in Ukraine due to the election. Once the election ends, I would bet on big-ticket items being offered, the opportunity is just too great to let the U.S or Germany or the U.K to have all the money. Macron of course can't tout it too much, a lot of it will be free (till the war ends) but the long term advantage of securing a Eastern European state for armament sales is going to undoubtedly outweigh any prior Russian sales or other Russian anger. Plus, while it is important to underscore that Russia is heavily disadvantaged and will lose this war in some factor, national survival being so important a factor in Ukrainian resolve and resistance, it is deeply important to emphasize that Russia's imperialist, colonial mindset in it's population and government will not disappear and die so easily. We saw in the 2nd Chechen War (that Putin made his bones on) Russian humiliation forged into revenge. Yes, Russia is gonna be screwed now, but regime change is impossible from the outside due to nukes, and impossible on the inside due to a somewhat docile population. (No offense to Russians but Maidan, the Orange Revolution illustrates Ukrainian civil society is very strong and active) Ukraine will continue to maintain a active, upgraded and aware stance towards it's larger neighbor and that entails all the lovely money for Western armament sales. Looks like China will lose out. Ukrainian arms industry will certainly have some good selling points afterwards, I expect the Ukrainian arms industry to flourish in spite of NATO armaments as Ukraine will be undeniably worried about being left alone in a future fight. Ukrainian civil society is also a deep important factor in Ukrainian civilian resolve and resistance, we now know that the U.S prewar warning that Russia prepped kill lists targeting Ukrainian government, civil society was true, and that decapitating the civil society was just as important as ending the Ukrainian government and destroying it's military.

NATO/U.S support in the background must be huge and ongoing since before the war began but I would also caution underestimating Ukrainian information warfare capabilities nor that of Eastern European states who are also experienced technologically and fighting Russia cyberwise and can support Ukraine as well. People are aware of Russian hackers, but let's not forget Ukraine's IT industry is very big and important as well, and there was a good degree of mixing with Russia's IT sector prewar. Also, the fact Ukraine is able to read Russian language basically fine, but most Russians can't read Ukrainian might help in a underhanded sense. Yes, there will be specialized groups with language skills, but I'm sure that factor helps.

Regarding France, maybe the concern with blasting them is due to the ongoing Presidential election between Macron and Le Pen. Would not do any good for Macron to get criticism, not with Le Pen basically having Putin's stamp of approval. Once the election finishes, I could see military aid ramping up. Something to think of, if I were the military industrial complex, having Ukraine get NATO armaments and equipment, would serve nicely as the beginning of integrating Ukraine into NATO and dovetail nicely with future weapon sales. If I were France, I would definitely offer a Rafale or several to Ukraine lest the U.S gets in with their F-16s.

Maybe someone who is actually Ukrainian can correct me if wrong but maybe outsiders are underestimating the level of internet infrastructure in Ukraine and underestimating how digital Ukraine is? I think there is a certain degree of ignorance of pre-war Ukraine that many Eastern European states are brushed with concerning economics. Also notable, Russia is pretty connected, at least urban Russia via the internet. The idea that Russia can do a wall dividing Russia and the rest of the world is sorta overstated?

There is a divide in German government that Ukraine is taking advantage of to pressure for more heavy equipment. Even as Zelensky rejected a meeting with the German President, a meeting with leading members of the German Parliamentary committees and from the 3 governing parties was announced with the Ukrainian parliament. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1513907436012331017?t=_j5X465R7lVvpX1sQupb9A&s=19

Hi, just wanted to say CMSF was a lovely game, and I'm happy to see Battlefront is still ongoing all those years later. Denazification has been taken by many people as only referring to Azov and the far-right in Ukraine, but that is ignoring Russian rhetoric, which has been casting the Ukrainian government as Nazis since before the war, and hyping up Ukrainian military buildup and evolution as a dagger at the separatist republics. The rhetoric also declares the Zelensky government illegitimate representatives of the Ukrainian people whom Russia is overthrowing. During the early part of the war, Russia called on the Ukrainian military to overthrow the Kyiv government and facilitate peace talks, seemingly in complete ignorance of the reality of the resolve of Ukraine. Considering how badly Russia has misjudged Ukraine and its resolve, it's important to note while it is "propaganda" in a sense, Russia's government probably believed in it enough to have disastrously underestimated Ukrainian resistance. It's also important to note people predicting Russia was not going to invade fully, probably downplayed or did not take seriously Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine, especially domestically. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/unpacking-putins-denazification-ukraine-and-my-forecasting-failure Something to note, Russian rhetoric has been extremely virulent and dangerous, as seen in the RIA state media op-ed, which represents a escalation of blame, in response to Ukrainian resistance and the shattering of the illusion of Russian troops being warmly greeted as liberators, while Russia invaded fully, it did so under a "special military operation", important to emphasize that the newer rhetoric accuses the majority of the Ukrainian population as Nazis, tainted and needing to be "cleansed" and its important if Russia intends on pursuing the conflict in a longer term to use more dangerous rhetoric to justify mobilization.