FancyCat

Isn't it just one supplier?

Air Defense, there's not a lot to stop Russian aircraft from making mincemeat of any mechanized UKR offensive. That means probably Ukraine is limited to slow moving offensives and unable to gather mass for fear of losing them to air attacks. Not sure how Ukraine resolves this aside from just leap frogging every town and village in Kherson oblast.

Well, i assume this is good.

In some sobering news, the OSCE has submitted a document detailing the results of investigations into war crimes, violations of international and humanitarian law from April 1 to June 25, tho events only uncovered within this period are also discussed from prior time. The war crimes are sanctioned, extensive. https://www.osce.org/odihr/522616 Russia did not bother to assist the investigation nor communicate back to the OSCE regarding it. For a much condensed summary, the U.S has one with helpful page references. https://osce.usmission.gov/response-to-moscow-mechanism-report-on-ukraine/ Mark Hartling puts it quite well. May I add that for a UN Security Council permanent representative nation to so openly conduct war crimes and actions violating international law, and one that was looked upon as to counter balance Western domination on the world stage is a deeply disappointing and terrifying reality if you worried about western hypocrisy and counted on balance to maintain international humanitarian law. There can be no peace without the withdrawal of Russia from all of Ukraine, and the restoration of its citizens back to their borders.

Let's not underestimate terror attacks. They may not immediately break morale but their use strains and tightens the leeway of the rear and home front. Hopefully NATO gets off it's slowness and accelerates the arming of Ukraine. Modern war is intensively resource consuming, but I'm not seeing the ramp up needed to assist Ukraine.

I was under impression Ukraine had retreated to a new frontline at Siversk but the line is anchored east of the city.

The Conflict Intelligence Team is now publishing dispatches in English.

The first MLRS systems are not up and running in Ukraine yet, I assume that the slower platforms that cannot shoot and move as fast, will be assigned to fire support for units in offensive operations, with the faster units keeping strategic targets under fire. I too was worried about the lack of progress, but after watching how the HIMARS worked, and knowing that we still have many more not online and operating in Ukraine, it makes sense to wait, and once the artillery is massed more, Russia can start enduring some of the fire they have been giving the Ukrainians. The real question is once the artillery is hitting Kherson, can the Russians hold, and can the Ukrainians advance with this? Crossing my fingers that quality, range overpower the Russian quantity of guns.

It's interesting, Russia has shown no inclination to even feign de-escalation. Bigger targets, bigger, more civilian targets, the officers house was about to host a concert, whatever the argument between de-escalation vs bombing civilian targets like universities, concert halls, etc vs trying to at least targeting military targets. You would think that Russia would dial it down while upping the offensive. I wonder if the lull in the offensive and artillery ammo shortage meant Russia is simply pursuing missiles to retain some pressure on Ukraine. Nasa FIRMS has been quieter for a few days no?

It takes a lot of time to plan a war, much less a conquest and annexation of a country. I still believe factors like Trump's 2nd term and the prospect of a divided West and NATO meant the time was right, alongside all the other factors mentioned before. Also notable, COVID damaged the worldwide economy and has made economic warfare and pressure extremely potent. We should probably not underestimate the effect of a worldwide pandemic, with morality facing him, one that differs much more than a assassination, and probably quite easier to get him than the latter. His actions with the stupidly long meeting tables attest to that.

German public remains in support of Ukraine. That and the continued Russian terror attacks will only make it easier for NATO to supply more weapons to Ukraine. I expect that the American limit on attacks on Russian territory with American provided equipment will start to falter as this keeps up.

Russian Imperialism and Colonialism, with all the baggage of the Soviet and Tsar era paranoid about invasion. One way I would like think of it, and compare it to, is sorta, the French control of Algeria, and the attempt by France to turn it into a integral part of France, vs simply a colonial part of its Empire, which we all know failed, yet France's government still holds views that veers quite opposed to reflection on its colonialism and imperialism. In contrast Russia and Ukraine are way more tied together but its honestly not too surprising that Russia seeks to control Ukraine, only that it was full scale invasion, but probably just some big Russian arrogance? Rumors indicate that the Ukrainians who Russia proposed as puppets had falsely stated Ukraine would tip over easily. Zelensky, Russian propaganda is quite crude, i wonder, if some of that has to reflect upon what the Russian government thinks of the resistance of the Ukrainian government?

Can't disagree with that. Hopefully this can end sooner than later.

Looks like Russia is finally getting over its shock and redoubling their efforts in the hybrid war.

I recall a sentiment that had Germany during the invasion of the Soviet Union, acted like liberators, they might have defeated the Communists, but that would defeat the entire purpose of the invasion, to genocide the people and repopulate the land with Germans. I find the same principle applies here, ensuring the Russian military does not conduct war crimes may be beneficial to winning except it is completely opposed to their goal of subjugating the Ukrainian people. Putin awarded the units involved in Bucha with Guards designation. Probably the 152mm Soviet guns, and DMS is just saying 150mm. Syria watchers will be quite familiar with Russian war crimes including pursued destruction of humanitarian targets, the utilization of lists provided by international orgs being used instead to bomb, and double tap the sites. This is entirely intended, not new. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian–Syrian_hospital_bombing_campaign https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-hospitals.html

And he mentioned Odesa in the briefing, ahh nevermind, nothing to feel silly about, how can he say "how can Ukraine survive the winter without the grain producing regions including Odesa if Russia gets that far" implying that one, Russia might well make it to Odesa, and two, would do so before winter in time to disrupt the harvest. Which is barring the collapse of the Ukrainian army, basically impossible, it took what, 2 months? for them to make and take this little cauldron in Donbas? How does he expect them to take Mykolaiv much less Odessa? Nah, he's either lacking in information, or is privy to much more information, or has taken the Russian viewpoint wholesale without consideration of Ukraine's. Russia achieved significant penetration of both the Austrian Foreign Ministry, and their Intelligence Agency, and probably deeply politically. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/05/austria-russia-infuence/ Resulting in them being frozen out of intelligence sharing for a time? Wouldn't be surprised if still banned.... Edit: Say there are pro-Russian factions in the Austrian government, both to ensure Austria gets Russian gas, and maybe more personal (bribes) reasons. Russia in order to break European unity and support to Ukraine needs to portray the conflict as lost, in order to empower elements of pro-ceasefire, anti-war, and those against supplying Ukraine and against ruining relations with Russia on the basis that the conflict is decided. In that sense, especially with the banning of many Russian propaganda networks in the EU, it would make sense to get Western experts endorsing the Russian viewpoint.

That article is actually quite illuminating, clearly Ukraine has not reached the point of being able to mass together units without Russia blowing them to bits, but it lays out Ukraine's plan to turn the tide of the war, maybe someone link it to the Austrian colonel. (On one hand I feel quite silly contesting a military man's judgement, I know nothing of military matters, on the other hand, I can't get over the fact he thinks the cauldron worked. I mean it may have but we have no proof of significant numbers of POWs, no proof of large numbers of destroyed equipment, Colonel Reisner thinks significant numbers of western weapons were successfully destroyed which again, Russia has shown nothing to indicate has occurred. Snake Island may be a sideshow so he ignored it in favor of the main fight in Donbas but if Ukraine was on the ropes, and Russia actually dominating, Ukraine should not have been able to force Russia off the island)

One thing I do note, 1917 and the collapse of the Russian army, there was much, much more social discontent domestically, and right now not even the more positive scenarios envisioned at the beginning of the year, like protest movements for peace are existing. As much as we hope for a collapse, 1917 looks quite impossible now and in the near future. Maybe later it develops but we shall see.

You do not deploy police as frontline units in military conflicts. You deploy police to beat down riots, or arresting targets. The fact that Ukraine got to ambush National Guard and Police units, and that the first unit into Kiev aside from PMCs attempting to assassinate the UKR government was a NG unit that got crushed.....these "shock troops" clearly didnt know what was gonna happen or prepped for it. At least the VDV got briefings, according to the BBC.

The fact that Russia chose not to undertake a sustained air campaign to dilute Ukrainian military and communications before deploying the forces against Kiev along a narrow front lends a lot towards that the decision makers in the Kremlin did not expect serious resistance and a quick toppling of the Ukrainian military. Not to mention the leading units being essentially National Guard/Police, or that many units ran out of fuel....en route to Kiev. they ran out of fuel on a 100 mile trip. Statements from captured soldiers not expecting resistance, the fact the Kremlin chose to undertake a air landing without SEAD or quite simply ignoring the fact NATO ISR was watching and providing Ukrainians with information on the air landings dropzones. (if Russia considered the Ukrainian military dangerous, what happened to degrading their ability to operate? if Russia considered the UKR military to be a quick issue, then the disadvantages of all I've mentioned are outweighed by the need for quick Russian seizure before potential NATO intervention/reinforcement)

At 5:42, he states its unknown how many Ukrainians were captured or killed in the cauldron, the lack of Russian POW captures would indicate a very low amount were captured at least. At 7:38, he mentions the BTGs, but ISW and others have pointed out that the BTG theory vs reality of force makeup is very skewed and its much harder to compare BTG vs BTG for force disparity. 11:45, he talks about the lack of air defense and aircraft for Ukraine, except we continue to get evidence that helicopters and aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force are still sortieing out, and the fact Russia refrains from air sorties into UKR territory that it should be doing to suppress UKR western artillery pieces, does not mesh with his statement that all air power or defense of Ukraine is dead. Plus Snake Island, if Ukraine had no more air defense or aircraft, why did Russia fail to hold the island against a artillery battery? Why are Harpoon launchers still able to keep Russian ships from nearing Odessa? Also....im sure hes a great military officer, etc, etc, what sources of intel is he getting from? Austria is not part of NATO, Austria's intelligence agencies are hallowed out after this, Russian infiltration into both the Foreign Ministry and Intelligence agencies being present and high-level, and were frozen out of intel sharing as a result. The biggest concern is why he ignored Snake Island, and he seems to not have a video before this one but after Russia left the island, so I cast doubt on his assertions that Ukraine has no airpower or air defense on the basis that the island should have been readily held had that be true.

Man, all those civilians in Kherson region, God protect them as much as possible.