FancyCat

Looks like it wasn't the main base but a fuel, storage site south of the oil refinery. Something to keep in mind, aside from fuel needed for the military, as we saw with the earlier fuel depot attack, it spurs civilian anxiety about shortages. So far, Ukraine has done admirably, (assuming it is Ukraine) with these targeted, infrequent attacks, spaced out enough to let Russians feel better over the prior attack, then get a nice surprise waking up. Fuel depots probably have lower amounts of people at risk vs military bases and they do burn very well. Anyone in the region will see the smoke.

Oh how satellite widespread deployment changes the world....where once we were left to rely on governments who were privy to information like this, now anyone can see this, yes it's a NASA satellite but anyone can see the data it spits out.

Something to consider, while we understand Russia using attacks on their soil and mobilizing, something else to consider is how much the propaganda is making it seem Ukraine is on the ropes, so a attack on a tank depot and a oil depot deep inside Russia is a indication the war is not going well, so maybe Russia wants to make it seem like a accident? Things like understating Russian casualties, would fall within that vein as well. It's interesting, for all the talk of defeating Nazis, Russia seems intent on keeping the war away from normal Russians as a legit war, with deaths spiralling high, attacks on home soil. You would think Russia would want to tout this as a reason for mobilization but with all the lies about how Ukraine is on the ropes, I suppose they can't easily back out of the falsehoods. Or maybe its too early to say, and the attack response is still developing.

Well, well a fuel dump and a arsenal? Very good for Ukraine. Wonder how the Russians feel about this strike deeper than last time. If it is Ukraine, it's notable how they are reaching deeper into Russia.

According to FT, Putin is committed to taking more territory.

So how is Russia supposed to reinforce and supply their forces in Syria? Thru Iran i suppose, except if I were Iran, I would ask them maybe you should sign the new Nuclear Treaty allowing Iran to trade again....

Ukraine is expanding their red lines for peace talks, while obviously Russia has several factors in deciding not to finish off the Mariupol resistance, it's notable that Ukraine is now expanding their red lines to include if the fake referendums are held. Definitely Ukrainian confidence is increasing diplomatically. I hope in a month Kherson will be liberated and the idea of a Kherson people's republic is dead where it belongs.

I keep going back to the information that Russia keeps a huge intelligence focus and desk space for the west, for China, for Europe, but for Ukraine, nada, not even after getting stopped by Ukrainian resistance in 2014. SVR runs foreign intelligence operations, FSB was assigned Ukraine, despite being a domestic intelligence agency. (Apparently CIS countries are FSB domain thru a agreement between SVR and FSB) I wonder how misinterpreted the rest of the information on CIS is in FSB. You probably saw this article on how Russian surveys of Ukraine prior to the war likely led them to some wrong conclusions. Surveys are well and good and all but war has a habit of being a destabilizing activity that changes perception hugely. That Russia somehow felt this wasn't war and that a survey should convey Ukrainians attitude to war is insane. I would go further and suggest that the major most single factor in Russia losing this war was their outlook on Ukraine and planning perception, as much as Russia has ****ed up, it is very clear that their planning was based on a long list of falseness about Ukraine, that say if we looked at Russian war plans for something like the seizure of the Baltics, Russia vs NATO would be much different. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-through-russias-eyes https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/11/putin-misjudged-ukraine-hubris-isolation/

I feel that in the case of U.S officials, the U.S wants to warn the Russians against any attacks while they are in the city, lest they accidentally kill them and force the U.S to up the ante in response.

Isn’t it still muddy? Don’t the Russians still have a lack of infantry? Admittedly, this is expensive losses for Russia, but unless Russia goes purely defensive, they don’t seem to have a lot of options to inflict damage on Ukraine to spoil their defense than these pushes. I suppose Russia could leverage their artillery, go defensive and let Ukraine attack, except unless Ukraine attacks, the only thing I can think of is Russia does not have enough artillery rounds, and a lack of intel enough to use what ammo is remaining to simply bomb everything in front of them. I mean I think the Russians are going to pursue offensive action, but I’m struggling to find a reason against them not going to the defensive, and focus on punishing Ukraine for any offensive moves, and use their artillery to disrupt Ukrainian buildup. Is this considered normal probing actions not indicative of a greater offensive? Am I missing something?

I recall a long while ago a bunch of separatist commanders dying. How long before Igor gets the same treatment for being too outspoken?

Making fun of the fact Russian officers treat their soldiers like crap, give them no context to their orders, and just generally lead them into slaughter over and over again.

Maybe Russia has indeed acknowledged the inability for the Russian forces to mount a offensive, but could it simply be intended as a short/midterm measure to reequip and rest formations while waiting out bad weather and mud? Instead of a long term switch to the defensive, maybe they finally got it into their heads they need to start prepping for a real stage 2 of the war.

Belgium is looking into supplying M109A4BE SPGs to Ukraine. Very lovely, Zelensky has sounded a note of approval regarding allied shipments of requested arms in his daily communications.

Thread regarding the loss of the chemical plant due to fire, sabotage is a much more likely reason considering the essential nature of this complex to Russian industry, war and civilian. https://twitter.com/Spoonamore/status/1517510440598843394?t=AwOU57emZn6uU4leyOGkzQ&s=19

I'm assuming NATO ammo is standardized so won't German ammo stocks of 155mm be usable in American howitzers? Would ensure no ammo shortages. My take from the report on the front is not great, Russian artillery is causing issues for defenders who can't give up territory without causing damage first. Absolutely NATO artillery is needed, I hope everything is flowing now and in motion. Ideally, the entire Ukrainian artillery arm should be transitioned to NATO as much as possible to ensure healthy supply. (Not that ex-soviet stuff gets decommissioned but I'm assuming the NATO stuff is better)

Thread from Hertling on the artillery from the U.S, nothing groundbreaking, tldr, not SPG, but will do the job of counter fire just fine, the package includes counter battery radars, light drones, AND have a logistical tail, training time less than SPGs, which is essential for Ukraine. https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481?t=5hunfjamfnyKmFDJ4v3l6A&s=19

France sounding like it is sending SPGs Ceasar to Ukraine. https://twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1517418849917878272?t=-ATlIQLKdtHrDaav8PANLw&s=19

From the same statement your tweet is probably looking at, the Russian military spokesman apparently also referenced Transnistria, so Odessa is still targeted. That they still declare the seizure of southern Ukraine is intended, and the "protection of Russians" in Transnistria would indicate state TV's insane rantings are not so insane in the Kremlin. Whatever the state of the Russian military, this is not great for the idea of Russia learning it's lesson. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517423108378042369?t=7IXVvQOH12Zw4ZymJ4ukkw&s=19

Maybe it's just me, but a infantry army that is roadbound and a mechanized army that is roadbound, the infantry army should still be outclassed but Ukraine is holding on. Still, the biggest argument for the war is going poorly for Russia is the fact they abandoned the northern front. Interesting you mention Kherson, a few Ukrainian officials fled at the beginning of the war, looks like those defections are directly related to the poor defense in the south. Still, personally the reasoning for the withdrawa of the northern front is ridiculous. If you really wanted to give peace overtures, simply pausing artillery and missile fire onto cities is a sound way of conveying overtures.

https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf I assume this document is well read here, its on how a american BCT can fight and defeat a Russian BTG, apparently the BTG served well enough in Syria, since they had a wall of pro-Assad forces to be cannon fodder, and the BTG provided supporting fire.

I think for political, economic reasons, yes its important Ukraine preserve manpower, and build up, but its also important to liberate territory as soon as possible, so I'm going to assume Ukraine launches a offensive this summer, and pushes the Russians back enough to cause a general collapse, and Ukraine can push into the prior lost territory. Once they get to that point, yes Russia can keep fighting on, but I think the ability for Ukraine to push into new areas and threaten Crimea mean its either talks or the impending loss of Crimea and full defeat. Yes, the loss of Ukrainian and Russian exports will affect the supply shortage worldwide, causing more inflation and potentially more civil unrest, and of course risk nuclear war. I know people think war makes money, but defense makes money too, and whatever the outcome of the Ukrainian-Russian War, Russia will remain as a threat for arms sales, even in peacetime. Difference is, Ukraine can actually pay for it in peacetime. https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-19-20-april-2022-43dee2800321 While I cant find the source for Kupyansk (it was from a Pravda interview with the governor but i got it 3rd hand), this says they got to Shevchenkove yesterday, but Russia pushed some forces to block them. I defer of course to you. Korobochkyne vs Shevchenkove, is a big difference, hopefully we will get word of the latter being true soon if true.

The big question is the recent Belarusian moves to end their neutrality of stationing nukes on their territory, if those nukes are there, Russia has a feasible move to intervene, and risk escalation. The problem is while the Belarusian military does not want to die in Ukraine, they helped stop the overthrow of Lukashenka, unless lower tiers of the military coup him, its likely they will stand behind him. If Ukraine really wants to, they could probably liberate Belarus without too much trouble, but I doubt Ukraine wants to pursue offensive action like that. Maybe if their contacts in Belarus signal some positivity on a quick end..... I don't have a source, apparently, Ukrainian forces are already in western Kupyansk.

Ukraine should also consider ending the war sooner, as with public opinion and favorable administrations in France, Germany (yes they are cautious about weapons but money i dont doubt german finance is itching to advance in Ukraine), the EU, the US with Biden especially, Britain, the sooner the war ends, the better deals Ukraine can sign with them, than in 2024 with whoever replaces Biden for example.