FancyCat

If I'm not mistaken, it is also a rail line into Luhansk no?

This is why Germany is the weak link for Ukraine to pressure on expanding deliveries from NATO. The thread keeps going, but basically the justification given last week was none to spare, needs refit, needs it to reinforce German commitment to NATO 40 Marders to Greece, for BMP-1s Thank god for the Greens, and I hope Scholz is a one term Chancellor.

Leopard 1s. More important than tanks, IFVs, Ukraine needs the ability to preserve their personnel, Marders.

We will have to see. Hopefully, fingers crossed, this stage of the war comes much sooner than later.

One, Germany got itself in this position due to bad PR. Sucks but if Macron who still sticks his foot in the mouth regarding Putin skates pass you somehow, you know you screwed up. Two, again, Scholz's coalition partners are actively stabbing him in the back (or more the front at this point). His opposition is as well. Three, as the largest European economy and mainstay of the EU alongside France, it must lead the EU, and lead Europe. Up until now, Europe has been in crisis and stagnation, and still is, but this crisis may be a valuable turning point for Europe. Certainly this represents a point where Russian influence can be cast out for a decade. I mentioned this earlier, a ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian forces monitored with what? UN mission? (Not NATO lol)(OSCE?) I highly doubt any monitoring mission is gonna occur, but if there isn't, Ukraine will have to regain control over customs and border control and station forces inside separatist areas to monitor the withdrawal. Once LPR and DPR lose the ability to defend their territory, even if Ukraine holds to the ceasefire (which it certainly might not), there isn't a lot for the LPR and DPR leadership to feel safe anymore from a visit by SBU. Also...what constitutes LPR and DPR forces? Russia flooded the Donbas with personnel. Russian MoD has control over large sections of the forces of the LPR and DPR. Ukraine itself declares that all separatist forces are Russian. I could see a ceasefire where Russian forces must leave, but Ukraine declares all armed personnel in the LPR and DPR are Russian and kicks them out. Imo, if the LPR and DPR leadership have any sense, they will attempt to one, retain armed forces, two, establish legitimacy of separatist government, three, and most importantly, keep the borders with Russia open for resupply and personnel reinforcement. Also, a situation where Russia can still flood in arms, supplies, personnel into the Donbas without being at war with Ukraine is absolutely a win. (Why Ukraine must regain customs and border control and alongside it, armed forces inside the Donbas) I could totally see a situation where what I've laid out above occurs, a ceasefire with Russia is declared, Russia withdraws but the LPR and DPR can regroup, rearm and defend the remaining Donbas with Russia retaining the unique ability of having its borders and territorial control to be completely undiminished (nukes, etc) and Ukraine forced to deal with international sentiment being "ehhh". No, this is not viable. And again, any conditions where Ukrainian demands are met, are going to likely result in the LPR and DPR leadership fleeing or doubling down and holding out anyway. Steve, I'm not sure you understand that the 2022 invasion changes everything. Pre-invasion, I would think everything you suggested is viable. Having Donbas be carved out from influencing Ukraine, (imo, carving the Donbas from influencing Ukraine is separatism btw, as the Donbas will influence Ukraine naturally as a response to Ukraine administrating the region, what your suggesting is legitimating their separatism) sure, entirely possible, something Zelensky promised to find a resolution towards. Post-invasion, things have changed. I don't think it can be understated that Russia sought to conquer the entire country and wipe out all pro-Ukrainian sentiment with genocide. Every report we have indicates civilians in the occupied territories being "filtrated" for pro-Ukrainian sentiment and those identified being either killed, deported, or tortured or if lucky, just monitored. I'm exceedingly surprised the Ukrainians don't line up every Russian soldier and collaborator and shoot them. Everything we have in terms of evidence indicates Russia fully intended (and is carrying out in occupied regions) on lining up and executing their opposition, peaceful and violent. They fully intended on cleaning Ukraine of opposition, civilian and military in a manner that is clearly targeted towards the Ukrainian nationality. This is not a clean war. War is never clean, and this war has not been clean at all since 2014 but certainly 2022 marks a huge escalation in Russia attempting to seize all of Ukraine, and in attempting the same "separatist republics" filtration in Kherson as in the Donbas. Maybe Ukraine opts along your lines, it's entirely possible. I think it's much more likely Ukraine cleanses their society, in order to safeguard from this occurring again. Now, obviously aside from whatever I stated, the Donbas is a important economic part of Ukraine, there are millions of people who probably wish to return to their homes in the Donbas, etc, etc. But it really comes down to whether Ukraine considers the Donbas theirs, and whether the cost in blood is worth retaking it all. I think certainly after facing their near destruction, the amount of blood Ukraine is willing to shed for regaining their land and people has certainly gone way up. Let Crimea and Lugansk and Donetsk remain free to cleanse the Ukrainians still there and sit back? Doubtful. (Reminder, they are still there. The massive human intel, partisan action indicates this)

Pre-invasion, sure, Minsk, etc. Post-invasion? Hell no. Not after Russia tried to pull off a Kharkiv and Kherson republic. In trying to seize Ukrainian territory beyond the Donbas, Russia has basically sentenced the Donbas to the position of removing special status by Ukraine in my opinion. Nothing can be allowed to let Russia one day to justify sticking it's claws in Ukrainian affairs. And most certainly that will occur one day in the future, far it may be.

I highly, highly doubt autonomy will be granted to the Donbas, nothing will be given that provides cover to separatist claims of special status to the Donbas or minority rights of Russians. Crimea is more likely but I'm pretty doubtful there as well. And I fully doubt Ukraine will allow a special carve out for the Donbas like a ceasefire for extended negotiations, nothing will be done to legitimatize the separatists, mark my words. Sure, Ukraine may find the cost in blood to be hard. But it would be even more costly to allow the Donbas the special status now that one day Russia will take advantage of to meddle in Ukraine once again.

India will not exactly get closer to the U.S, other western powers like France, or maybe South Korea exist without U.S baggage.

Regarding the reluctance on long range missiles for Ukraine, I saw a comment on /r/credibledefense that made a decent point, anything the U.S provides sets a precedent for future proxy conflicts. Now yes, the USSR provided nuclear weapons capability to Castro (sorta) but the point still stands, any capability provided by the U.S will be viewed in the frame of escalation by others in the future. In that sense, the U.S is keen to emphasize that it will stand by the pledge to not damage Russia on its side of the border. And obviously Ukraine has shown itself to be quite obeying to U.S requests, it's not the U.S government that almost got overthrown in Kiev a few months ago.

I like this piece, cause it provides just a little more context to emphasize how badly 1st GTA is doing in Ukraine. Nothing a lot that is new, but if 5 months isn't enough to restore a supposedly elite unit, what chance does the rest of the Russian military have? From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/13/a-hundred-wrecked-tanks-in-a-hundred-deadly-hours-heavy-losses-gut-russias-best-tank-army/

Put it another way, if he acknowledges Ukraine can conduct broad offensives, he must then acknowledge Ukraine has the ability to militarily defeat Russia and end the war, he must then answer why isn't Germany providing more to allow that scenario to occur. Now, every NATO state has unofficially sorta adopted the same line, the question is...why and who is pushing it to remain? I mean lets be honest, some states are more eager than others in actions and rhetoric. Germany and Scholz absolutely screwed themselves with their statements and PR despite all NATO states adopting the same stance, therefore, Ukrainian demands will hit the weakest point to bend NATO to meet them, that is Germany. USA, HIMARS, France, even the Caesars were enough for Macron to escape most of the rhetoric, Scholz has been too mealy-mouthed and his governing coalition partners are very keen to trip him more and gain. Now this extends to all NATO major countries, but again, Germany is the weakest link, also is for better or for worse, the most associated with Russian rapprochement. German defense companies have been exceedingly aware of Scholz's weakness and have leaked plans for providing aid to Ukraine (whatever their unfeasibility) to his loss of public image and their gain. You don't see this elsewhere. And admittedly, there is a lot to be said about the inability to pledge or promise them upon refit to Ukraine, the Leopards 1, the Marder IFVs, despite the defense companies leaking the plans.

There is a notable context to his remarks as well, and I find it wrong precisely because it is being used to stop aid to Ukraine, as the article notes, the entire context of this is him defending the lack of further weapons to Ukraine, justifying it as "Germany needs to uphold its NATO and EU defense obligations when Russia looks at Europe again" and "Ukraine's ability to end the war militarily is impossible", in that sense, his underplaying of the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, his overplaying of Russian ability to open additional fronts are just excuses to provide political cover to those in Germany reluctant to anger Putin and wishing to conduct rapprochement sooner. This is the main theater of war, Ukraine, not Poland or the Baltics or Finland, smash Russia by providing Ukraine with weapons and NATO and the EU are safe in the future. Allow Ukraine to militarily win the war and you prevent a grinding, long term conflict that turns Ukraine into a basketcase for Europe to hold. This is just bull**** designed to let Ukraine falter, Germany to loudly decry the stalemate and call for Minsk III and then the gas can flow again.

I'm not sure what your getting at, but Kherson and Kharkiv can be classified as fronts, and the advances made in Kharkiv certainly qualify for broad front movement, pending on whether Kherson verifies, broad movement taking place there as well. Movement on a broad front certainly does not mean total defeat either.

Long thread, but it basically boils down to lying at every level of the Armed Forces, such that the picture is so distorted by the time it gets to Putin, it is not reality whatsoever. It is so distorted, that any action, whether it be artillery fire, air support, a push by infantry or armor, anything whatsoever, is marred by lying, and so despite it being reported a successful strike opened the war for a advance, the infantry and armor that move out get a boatload of lead and retreat, except the commander reported his units are intact, succeeded and have more fighting strength than true so then a supporting attack goes underway with the same poor result.... There is a real possibility the Russian General Staff supposed their Izyum and Kharkiv front was perfectly manned, when in reality, everyone was just lying and covering their own behind.

The Inspector-General of the Bundeswehr, or the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff equivalent.

Some interviews with soldiers, civilians, both Russians and those who fled from Ukraine in Belgorod. https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-russian-border-city-pro-kremlin-ukrainians-soldiers-regroup-after-retreat-from-ukraine-11663187679

I'm sure you were only referring to Russian domestic opinion, but I want to note, nothing in Prigozhin's speech gives any indication to the creation of a modern, professional military needed to compete with Ukraine. Nothing about shooting deserters implies a ability to allow lower-command officers to operate on the frontlines with flexibility, nothing about this indicates a willingness for Russian soldiers to feel confident in their hierarchy. I think a important part of morale in the war against Ukraine, is the ability for relying on your command, your society to support you, nothing about this implies any willingness for the creation or reformation of the Russian military into a force that can compete with a Ukrainian military that understands their society is behind them, their command is behind them, that their comrades will be alongside them. Nothing in that speech will keep the Wagner units from breaking in a rout, nothing in that speech will let the units alongside and in front of the Wagner units remain confident in advancing, retreating, nada. Nothing about this speech will let other factions and units in the war in Ukraine give up their fiefdoms and power structures for a greater cause. It is important to recognize even in the time of the Soviet Union, that it was not just fear that drove the fight against the Axis, for example, Stalin and co conducted rapprochement with the church, Order 227 during WWII, was never fully implemented and dropped after the realization that it was not helping. Prigozhhin will do nothing to fix the problems in the Russian military.

While military aid is absolutely important, and its important to recognize that Polish assistance is awesome, its also important to recognize the wholeness of western aid to Ukraine, for example, France offered 25% of its active duty Caesar SPGs, something no other state has offered in terms of active duty, in-use military hardware, Germany offered essential hardware like long-range AD, and short-range AD essential to keeping VVS away from the offensive in Kharkiv, the UK is hosting thousands of Ukrainians for training, and news has arrived Denmark will be hosting troops as well, NATO aircraft are ferrying munitions from states like Pakistan, sneaking stuff from Iran thru 3rd parties, smaller NATO states like the Baltics, Norway, Finland, Macedonia, have contributed good stuff, like the Harpoons on trucks, air frames, etc. It is also extremely important to understand that the EU, being the biggest trading partner to Ukraine, and bordering Ukraine, is a essential part of keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. I don't think it can't be understated that if Ukraine's home front was not upheld by EU money and EU access, Ukraine would been having a extremely tougher time keeping her home front secure, and by extension, keeping her frontlines going. States that see war, see huge economic effects, usually negative as hell, and I'm sure Putin and those RU nationalists were relying on turning home front Ukraine into rubble and poverty as part of any threat to Ukraine, and it can't underestimated, that things like the Polish warmth to Ukrainian refugees, is assisted by EU economic aid to Poland and other states to assist refugees for example. I mean, money is important just for defense needs, Pakistan ain't giving away 152mm ammunition that is newly manufactured (nor should they, poor bastards, that flooding is horrible) for free, and I think its not the foreign reserves of the UKR central bank paying them either, its gonna be some sort of money from the EU or otherwise from the West getting those shells made. End of the day, its important for understanding that Ukraine ability to fight back is not just due to Ukrainian resolve alone, but Ukraine has done a great job harnessing the ability and resources of the West to equalize the playing field more against Russia, and I bet some of the reasons why the analysts were wrong on Ukraine pre-war, did not take into account stuff like the West backing Ukraine. Ukraine isn't fighting with just the Poles standing a little bit back, and the rest of Europe really far away, that is undermining the work Ukraine has done to ensure that the playing field is what it is today, where Europe is a safe harbor for Ukraine to dock in, and I think Putin absolutely did not consider Europe to be Ukraine's friend, and was expecting his efforts in Europe to make it much, much colder for Ukraine, and not a safe harbor where thousands of Ukrainian civilians can live safely from Russian missiles, and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers can train in peace and quiet, and where hundreds can be treated in safe hospitals.

Interesting, rebellion against ineptitude or wanting to go home?

Aren’t they logistically heavy? I’m sure they are tough and have punching power but is the burden of a unit of M1s worth that armored spearhead? I do hope we could send some IFVs tho.

Apparently according to someone else I saw who tweeted on this, they generally have other opinionated people on there, so it’s not completely one sided, just enough to have someone get punched around on the show.

I can imagine how much anyone wants to go to Ukraine to work knowing this ****.

Ehhh...Chuck might not be the best source. Best to wait for photos or better sources to say something.

Small Jomini update, I wonder how every collaborator in the post invasion territory feels at this point? Can't be good watching Russia melt away.