FancyCat

nvm. didn't realize these border clashes were common.

Steve, I stand corrected. Hopefully this increases.

From the Washington Post, non-paywalled article: https://wapo.st/3RFrz0c Some choice quotes. Looks like it was a good idea to lock down the border indeed, if Russians took civilian cars, (and we know they regularly do), certainly some of those fleeing to the border were military and not just pro-Russian and Russian civilians. Also, wtf, did they really just leave a body lying on the floor of a gravel elevator and went past it everyday? Why the hell do they live so trash like? Review of photos and such of Russian military garrisoned in Ukraine is just almost universally just unkempt and dirty. Am i missing the cleaner photos or something?

Big difference between Nazi Germany and Finland/Romania/Italy, and Russia and the LPR and DPR, this is more akin to Turkey and Northern Cyprus, or Armenia and Artsakh. Or the Soviet Union and the Finnish communists in the Winter War. A scenario where Russia is forced out, what keeps Russia out from reentering the LPR and DPR? You would need ZSU forces to reman the border, except, under what scenario can ZSU forces enter the DPR and LPR and set up the proper defense against Russia while letting separatist forces exist? Crimea, they had a autonomous republic, but I'm very doubtful Ukraine will allow any such legitimacy to the puppet republics. Maybe...before 2022 (but im sure others who know more can chime in) but now? Heavy doubt, I don't think Ukraine wishes to give any legitimacy whatsoever to potential separatist entities.

Did not Russia get rid of those pesky warlords exactly to prevent any funny business or unexpected surprises from the separatists occurring? So how likely is it that the people who make peace with Russia aren't Russian? Or even if they are Ukrainian, there's a pretty good chance they get right to prison or war crime trialed, and of course Russia is off limits if they run.

Part of a longer thread, some of these non-subordinated units have more infantry but no access to Russian MoD artillery and other support. Interesting, they have infantry, but their coordination and command is such that they cannot easily combine them for combined arms maneuvers. I wonder if the effort will be made at this point or not? Sounds like these are partly conscripts, or the more experienced raised separatists units maybe?

Mind you, a big part of Russian tank losses is due to lack of infantry. Case in point, link goes to a Russian tank column attempting to enter the NE suburb of Kiev, Brovary, wiki states a combo of artillery and infantry AT fire got them to fall back. This entire war, lack of infantry has been one of the most serious flaws to the Russian forces, if we ask what Russia could have more of, tanks, artillery, infantry for each stage of the war, every time it comes down to more infantry, even for the latter stages where artillery was just being raked over every itch of the frontline. We have piles and piles of Russian tanks, APCs, IFVs just coming online, being destroyed, and replaced, but the one constant has been lack of infantry. https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tau47c/the_battle_in_the_brovarsky_district_a_top_view/ But why? To counter Ukrainian infantry. And that's why we cannot say tanks are useless, cause this entire war, Russia has deliberately shot itself in the leg. (both legs. and maybe a shot to the gut frankly) And if the counter is to point out Russian infantry is useless, sure, but then its the lack of training, in combined arms, in professionalism, the state of corruption of the Russian military that doomed Russia, not per say, lack of infantry. Had Russia had more infantry, to counter Ukrainian infantry, Ukraine would have to rely a lot more on their tanks, artillery, and be even more severely punished for lack of armored infantry transport like APCs and IFVs.

Is that totally true tho? I recall reading that Ukraine after the fact placed a high emphasis on the use of their artillery, some of which was pulled off of training grounds to defend Kiev. Non-Paywalled: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/kyiv-battle-ukraine-survival/ From the article, it points out artillery was used effectively to hit Russian bridgeheads and crossings across the flooded plain NW of Kiev, prevented Russia from landing planes during the airborne attack, and scattered and disrupted Russian convoys. Same with Chernihiv, artillery blasted the convoys as they attempted to enter the city. Not to say attacks by light infantry didn't hit their supply lines hard, but hitting their platoon bridges, keeping the airfield closed, striking their armored columns, was artillery fire. (and tank fire since 1st Tank Brigade)

How do we know they didn’t use tanks to hit fortified positions? We could use more info. Mind you, more IFVs, APCs, are useful than more infantry, but mostly due to being able to mount infantry. But heavier firepower is important.

Decent chance some of those leaving are Russians, civilian and military who came to occupied Ukraine. With how many Russian troops are using civilian vehicles, there is probably good chance some of them are soldiers, which once they get back to Russian territory, can actually somewhat quit the military, vs being stuck in Ukraine and refused the ability to quit. Shutting down the border to check for them might be a good idea therefore.

New Jomini!!

Probably busy attempting to resupply the Kherson defenders. Congrats to Germany, looks like the Gepards proved their usefulness!

Video is from Crimea. One fear, if Ukraine starts winning, the West may seek to let Russia off the hook with retaining territory, Germany's Greens issue a statement that makes it clear the liberation of occupied Ukraine is in Germany's interests (at least for the Greens).

Good to be conservative in the UKR advance, but if truly ZSU liberate Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, I mean its one thing for the Izyum front to be stripped of units, but for the Siversk facing units to be so degraded, I mean Bakhmut facing units, once they hear of Ukraine retaking Lys-Sev, I mean, how is Russia gonna restabilize their front when they have thousands of their forces trapped in Kherson, and a good majority in the left bank of the Dnipro that need to transit back into Crimea to get to Rostov to get into Ukraine from the East, and the remaining good units already deployed in Bakhmut?

Astounding if not some digital creation and PR making, but real or not, pretty astounding anyway. Congrats to all Ukrainians, this victory must be unparalleled so far.

How lovely for Russia to make sure Ukraine can advance with SPG supporting fire as easily as possible. Well, its pretty much settled, unless Russia can somehow stalemate this conflict for a year or so, Ukraine will likely seek and get the restoration of all its territory occupied by Russia including Crimea. On that note, I know crossing into Crimea is hard, i still think with the state of the Russian military being what it is, that Ukraine can achieve it militarily in the event Putin stubbornly refuses to see that it's over.

I wonder how the actual DPR and LPR civilians and military personnel feel at this point. One thing to be Russian and fleeing, another thing entirely when your family lives in and your home is in occupied Ukraine. I hope that steps will be taken to ensure those who fight will be able to lay down their arms as Russia has and will try to emphasize that giving up will mean their deaths and the deaths of their loved ones. I hope Ukraine is not too harsh on those who were conscripted.

Remember, unless stuff gets photo confirmed, probably too good to be true. Plus, it is surely in ZSU interest to spread fake collapses over social media to spur actual collapses.

We don’t want Ukraine to overextend itself tho. That’s 100km in a week?

There's rumint that Lyman is under assault, or even that the Russians are routed. I suppose the next Ukrainian objective would be to take positions alongside the Zherebets river? Or stick to a defensive line from Oskii to Lyman, send units to regroup before redeployment elsewhere on the front?

Thanks for reminding us about the fact the city spans both banks of the Oskii, that said, especially if Ukraine intends on using the Oskii as a anchor, wouldn't it be a bad idea to take over the left bank of Kupyansk? As long as they control the right bank, they can basically turn the railyard and etc into flaming bits and pieces no? Tho it would be nice to seize it intact.

Hate to burst your bubbles but if Putin does not mobilize, the Russian people will probably not care enough to depose him. Oh sure, his popularity will drop to the low digits but unpopular rulers exist everywhere. The only threat is from a elite power shake up. And I've given my opinion on breakup, it's a fantasy. Especially as Ukraine will not push into Russia proper so essentially the personnel part of the SMO will be the only ones to suffer even after Ukraine conquers the rest of her territory.

Astounding, just astounding that Ukraine is able to advance forces in Lyman as well. Those stupid Russian bloggers crowing about Ukraine taking Ozerne a few days ago should have been asking why Russia abandoned a town that defends a river. Absolutely idiots the whole bunch of them.

Someone made a good point, maybe.....there isn't anyone in Izyium? At least not really? How do we know if Russia hasn't pulled as much as they did from Balakliya?