billbindc

So after two years of this thing, you have not noticed that the Russians tend to up-play things they do not care about and stay silent of stuff they do?  An apartment building gets taken down and it is all over the RUS-IO sphere but things that actually hurt - like deep strikes on oil infra - they really don’t make a fuss. Ya think maybe it is a bit of a ploy?

I would be absolutely flabbergasted if this idea came from the US. 

There is no way the US green lit a strike on Russian strategic deterrence architecture.  Unless this was a whoopsie, and if it was it was a really big one.  No responsible (or sane) strike authority is going to sign off on this, any more than a Russian commander or politician is going to green light strikes on our own NORAD architecture.

Forgive me if that wasn't clear but I did not say they had violated an agreement. I said that it was deeply irresponsible to hit that particular target. It is of only marginal use to the Russian military vis a vis the war in Ukraine but is a significant strategic Russian asset that tracks incoming ICBMS. That's flat out destabilizing and provides fuel to those who want to limit ATACMs, etc.  

If nothing else, this episode is a great example of why the US has legitimate concerns about the use of American weapons. The first and foremost priority is to avoid nuclear escalation. If Ukraine cannot commit to that principle in the use of aid then the US has every right to put limitations in. 

It could very easily have been a misunderstood target of opportunity but a blunder none the less. 
Also, it's *very* unlikely the Russians would advertently do this to themselves. They are already paranoid about regime survival and weakening their own strategic early warning systems is just not a thing.

It could very easily have been a misunderstood target of opportunity but a blunder none the less. 
Also, it's *very* unlikely the Russians would advertently do this to themselves. They are already paranoid about regime survival and weakening their own strategic early warning systems is just not a thing.

Forgive me if that wasn't clear but I did not say they had violated an agreement. I said that it was deeply irresponsible to hit that particular target. It is of only marginal use to the Russian military vis a vis the war in Ukraine but is a significant strategic Russian asset that tracks incoming ICBMS. That's flat out destabilizing and provides fuel to those who want to limit ATACMs, etc.  

No idea...but there should have been bright red "Do Not **** With This" warnings all over these targets on the Ukraine side. Kyiv actively hurt it's cause here. Acton with more detail: 
 

This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns.

This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns.

This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns.

This is, or should be, embarrassing to you.

It's pretty simple in a certain way. This is a mafia state. Corruption is standard operating procedure. Fealty and money moves up while protection is provided down. Once Shoigu lost control of the MoD his 'tail' no longer had anyone to pay and nobody to provide krisha. Rule *by* law then applies. All of the obvious theft that was ignored when they were under Shoigu's wing suddenly becomes a state case and they are ejected in favor of officials who are of the newly favored faction. 
Here's where it gets interesting. Does Belousov have a faction with which to populate the ministry? I don't think so...at least not in the way in which the thoroughly political Shoigu did. I take that fact to mean that there will be more selections that answer directly to Putin. The goal being to coup proof things more thoroughly and also to attempt to streamline the Russian military industrial complex for a long war.  

This is, or should be, embarrassing to you.

It's pretty simple in a certain way. This is a mafia state. Corruption is standard operating procedure. Fealty and money moves up while protection is provided down. Once Shoigu lost control of the MoD his 'tail' no longer had anyone to pay and nobody to provide krisha. Rule *by* law then applies. All of the obvious theft that was ignored when they were under Shoigu's wing suddenly becomes a state case and they are ejected in favor of officials who are of the newly favored faction. 
Here's where it gets interesting. Does Belousov have a faction with which to populate the ministry? I don't think so...at least not in the way in which the thoroughly political Shoigu did. I take that fact to mean that there will be more selections that answer directly to Putin. The goal being to coup proof things more thoroughly and also to attempt to streamline the Russian military industrial complex for a long war.  

This is, or should be, embarrassing to you.

Exactly this. To the lay man, nukes are just a weapons system. In reality, they sit within a long thought out and tested set of systems and assumptions that every nuclear power devotes a military and political bureaucracy to. The entire structure is to ensure that nobody, ever, destabilizes the system because destabilization almost certainly leads to use. 
When that system collapses in any country, we are all in a hell of a lot of trouble.

Exactly this. To the lay man, nukes are just a weapons system. In reality, they sit within a long thought out and tested set of systems and assumptions that every nuclear power devotes a military and political bureaucracy to. The entire structure is to ensure that nobody, ever, destabilizes the system because destabilization almost certainly leads to use. 
When that system collapses in any country, we are all in a hell of a lot of trouble.

For those folks who think there's anything like stability within the Russian state:
 

It's extremely important to note that the withdrawal was made in the context of what the Soviets believed was a retrenchment in a struggle with the West that would continue into the foreseeable future while they were leaving behind a government that looked pretty durable. It looked like a wise move to a new Soviet regime that was seeing economic dislocation and political unrest but it seemed like a *very* long way from a decisive loss.

Added to which while we've never seen a full bore civil war in a nuclear armed state we *did* see how vicious a Russian civil war can be from 1917 until 1923. Does anyone want to seriously claim that nukes would not have been used by the Reds or Whites had they been available in that conflict? 
The rule of un-rung bells says that nobody will get credit for working to avoid that extraordinarily bad outcome but from where I sit, they certainly should.

"The Putin regime may not seem weak on the surface, but its stability is a mirage produced by the repression it exerts."
 
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theory-victory-ukraine

"The Putin regime may not seem weak on the surface, but its stability is a mirage produced by the repression it exerts."
 
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theory-victory-ukraine

For those folks who think there's anything like stability within the Russian state: