NamEndedAllen

You are assuming that the USA right wing Congress isn’t the chief nod-nod, wink-wink player? Bad assumption. Even if something were worked out before 2024, to ratify any “Amber” treaty requires Senate ratifification. With 60 votes minimum. Don’t bet on getting those votes any time soon. You think a *new* military commitment to another war in Europe against Russia would be easy and quick to get through? The price demanded for a deal would be so high that senators on the other side would start refusing to go along. Welcome to business as usual now, in the deadlocked Congress. Heck, right now Congress can’t even agree to pay the USA debts, with default looming. Things would be a lot simpler though if Russia were losing big time on the battlefield, in conspicuous retreat on several fronts. THEN you might get a face-saving deal. Not just because China says, ‘Do it.” But because Ukraine with its free world allies *makes* it. China can add its own little push after that. So get the whole package together. All the training, all the coordination, stop the piecemeal dribbling out of endless quibbling about each platform, inviting more naysayers more time and platforms to whine and moan. Map out the plan with Ukraine and the Allies, and make it do. However long this takes, it would be a day less if started yesterday.

My fear is that enough of the “right” NATO nations might secretly give China/Russia a “wink wink, nod nod” to yes, Ukraine has the right to TRY to join NATO or a smaller western military treaty - but they won’t actually ever let Ukraine in. Not of course that a nation has *ever* in history been deceived in an international agreement. Under that misconception, Ukraine might agree to some sort of thin veneer of a reasonable sounding resolution of its violated borders. Russia drops the annexation, but Ukraine agrees that some sort of UN peacekeeping monitors Russia’s administrators in the three conquered Oblasts. Ultimately, Ukraine is out in the cold and loses the eastern Oblasts. Russia keeps its land bridge. Right wing politicians rejoice throughout the Western World that our senseless warmongering against Russia is over, and trade resumes, the spice flows. Oops. I mean the oil.

Awfully large “IF”. IF Russia ever agrees to retreat out of ALL Ukraine, not just parts of it, AND keeps quiet about Ukraine either joining NATO or a similarly powerful and purpose-dedicated military treaty alliance with the USA, Britain and some European nations, AND the USA’s (60 votes required) Senate actually would ratify such a treaty, Then Russia will have lost everything and more. Everything spent this year, everything they had before last February’s invasion. Plus, Ukraine would have the power of an Atlantic military alliance that Russia has striven to block for years. No face-saving could disguise these fundamental defeats. On the other hand, if Ukraine fails to achieve these two pillars, the Ukrainian people and much of the world will see what Russia achieved with no destruction of its own territory, no longer any sanctions, and the successful annexation of large areas of a neighboring country that dared to trust Europe and the USA/NATO to preserve it. All thanks to a China/Russo Alliance. Taiwan will read these more-than-tea leaves. China will too. I am obviously distrustful of this Chinese gambit. If it were somehow to turn out all roses and chocolates for everyone, with a rebuilt, free and intact Ukraine - terrific. I’m all for it. I fear actually what might happen is a grudging pause by Ukraine at the urging of Europe and the USA for negotiations that go nowhere, while Russia rebuilds its military for the next Act (of crimes against humanity). Yes, Ukraine will also rebuild, but the front lines will have been frozen too long, defenses further strengthened, and any reasonable chance for Ukraine to regain any more of its stolen country lost.

Aye, there’s the rub! And if it came to pass, a clear hands down albeit hard fought bloody victory for Ukraine. And by extension, NATO and Europe. Many a slip twixt cup and lip.

And here it is. Very general. Includes ending the sanctions, ending Cold War mentality. Says there should be peace talks. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html Honestly, after reading it and its vague platitudes it looks more like a stunt to score some points. Tellingly, it solemnly restates China’s oft spoken “respect international borders”…right after refusing to vote for the UN resolution on the anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, for Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from all Ukraine. Oh, right! Russia already annexed that big chunk of invaded territory. So, problem solved tor China!

I think you are right, and that would put Europe and the USA (Canada too!) in an uncomfortable spot around the world; China the adult in the room, and with the gravitas to make it do.

Except you could be wiped out. The fraud and the wild volatility make it one heck of a high risk investment.

Couldn’t agree more. However, my reaction was about the Chinese mentioning guarantees for RUSSIA but not for Ukraine. I didn’t see a link in the post for that quote, so can’t check the source for that absence. But certainly a peace plan of any credibility would need both sides’ approval. In the absence of guarantees for both countries, it sounded more like a sick joke than an easy bargaining chip. Not to mention that Ukraine already HAD promises of security guarantees - never ratified, iirc. My sense is at least until seeing the full text of an actual document, I have little faith that Ukraine will find great joy in any Chinese peace plan. Would be happy for Ukrainians if there were one they could embrace. Although such a thing could conceivably be a major blow to the West in terms of international affairs.

Consistent for Russia, but has that always been China’s position. Security *guarantees* for Russia, and not the same let alone primarily for the victim?!

Kevinkin quoted this a while back and I hd to reread a couple times: China intervened to present itself as above the conflict by proposing a catalogue of measures: a ceasefire, dialogue,security guarantees for Russia, protection of civilians and the upholding of territorial integrity. What!? Security guarantees for Russia? The country currently ravaging every city and civilian it can reach? Raping and pillaging while insisting that Ukraine doesn’t exist as a nation?!! And China says RUSSIA needs security guarantees?? Depending on which official said this, I think we can guess that China’s peace proposal will not be joyfully embraced by Ukraine, sending gifts to China of puppies and rainbows.

Yes! Indeed! Or, simply ask him, “What do YOU think the price of freedom is?” The USA 2022 federal budget was 6.011 TRILLION dollars. A billion dollars is a *thousandth* of a trillion. “Countless” dollars??! That 30 billion dollars “poured” into fighting these crimes against humanity (so-called “special military operation”) is a whopping .005 of the American budget last year. Perspective? Americans spent over *50* billion dollars on freaking VIDEO GAMES last year. Yeah. America can do a heck of a lot more even than walking down the street and chewing gum at the same time. Sometimes people forget this, listening to too much fascist inspired crap trying to pass itself off as news.

Movement on the USA armaments tor Ukraine front. Perhaps the Western tanks without Western AirPower issue isn’t going to be so black and white. If the logjam can finally be broken. Along with the damn ATACMS! https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-22-23/h_e8cfb3559bd5978327d401aa3bccb2d0 Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, told journalists he sees “increasing momentum” in Washington toward providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets. “I think there’s a split in the administration, at the national security council, as to how fast and what weapons to put in, but I am seeing increasing momentum towards getting both the artillery and the planes in, and in any event we can start training pilots right now so they’re ready,” McCaul told journalists in Kyiv on Tuesday after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. McCaul said Zelensky had given him a list of weapons Ukraine needed, namely F-16s and ATACMS, which can be fired from US-supplied HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and have a range of up to 300 kilometers (about 186 miles). "I will be a very strong voice on both the ATACMS, the long-range artillery to hit the Iranian drones in Crimea, in addition to the F-16s,” McCaul said

What a moment in time it was. For me, what is forever tattooed into memory is that previous game vs the Vikings. It was a great game, but for me it was the circumstance. My wife’s only sister had set up a dinner for me in a major Vegas hotel’s dining room, when I came to town. Despite being far far along in the fatal journey of brain cancer. But the dinner coincided with the game. Which was being shown on large screens over the bar. The dinner and company were memorable. And they knew how much this game, and Foles’ amazing resurgence off the bench meant to me. So periodically when a cheer went up my sister-in-law would say, “Go!”, I would make my way to the camaraderie around the bar. I really only got the game’s highlights because the real highlights were being with her for the last time together, going out on the town, enjoying herself and all of us. That and Foles making 352 passing yards and three touchdowns, setting up that great toe to toe SuperBowl against Tom Brady. I had hoped and prayed for Jackie to make her own comeback for the ages, and win her personal Super Bowl. But what she faced was far deadlier than Brady’s throwing arm. And relentless. I miss her.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/futuristic-mortar-turret-seen-in-action-at-u-s-special-ops-base-in-syria The U.S. military's main special operations task force focused on combating ISIS across the Middle East has released pictures showing personnel firing an XM905 Advanced Mortar Protection System, or AMPS, in Syria. The XM905 is a turreted, computer-assisted 120mm mortar specially developed to help provide an added layer of defense at forward operating bases. The complete system looks like it could belong in a video game like Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare or Command & Conquer

“How long, oh Lord, how long” -Psalm 13

Great to hear Ultradave! And a most excellent chance you will feel exactly the same way ten years on. At least from my own experience. Something else for those still upholding civilization as we know it: years ago several of my closest longtime colleagues/friends were thinking hard and planning for when to pull the “ripcord.” Inevitably we would talk about what we would be doing, after. I’ve not forgotten what one of them said. “A lot of guys say they are going to *start* doing all sorts of new and exciting things they’ve never made time for. But really, most people never do anything they haven’t already *been* doing.” I think there is a kernel of truth there, even though it isn’t 100% the case for everyone. The message is that guys who don’t have much else going on besides work, are often the ones at loose ends or worse after they retire. It’s a good idea to have cultivated some pursuits apart from work before you retire. You guys here already have that with CM and related stuff. Ultradave’s list though is a good example of a broader life outside of career that can make these later years flourish.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-2-20-23/h_892b2023e3f2e4b6dfcc6f15f5fe47c7 Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized American aid to Ukraine as an "open-ended blank check" and questioned whether the United States should be engaged in the Russian conflict at all. "I don't think it's in our interest to be getting into a proxy war with China, getting involved over things like the borderlands or over Crimea," DeSantis told Fox & Friends on Monday, referring to the Ukraine territories that Russia has seized through military force. China? CHINA?

Yes it will. I’m glad my grandparents weren’t around to see both the Phillies and the Eagles lose right at the very threshold of championships. It would break their fierce hearts. I will make a start myself by buying this year’s upcoming, quarterly Steam releases. So please please please let the healing begin! Release them soon!

Quotes from OSINTdefender’s coverage: Putin: Anglican church plans to consider idea of gender-neutral god, but God forgive them, they don't know what they are doing Putin, “In the West, Pedophilia is seen as a new norm and Priests are Forced to Officiate Same-Sex Marriages.” “Sevastopol and Crimea was their next Target. Putin states, “It is “Them” that unleashed this War not Russia Putin, “We have attempted every Opportunity for Peace.”

Shelling along many areas of the front, but may be routine. But I’m not sure if shelling from Belarus is routine. Tantrums after President Biden’s surprise (cream pie in Putin’s face) visit to Kyiv?

Is this reported anywhere else? It seems beyond credulity that Russia would try to start a war against NATO. Especially after relentlessly striving to destroy its own military for the past year.

Thanks! Added to the Wish List.

Thanks for the lead - just bought the Kindle version.

Also relieved to see evidence that Elvis has survived the terrible disruption in the Force, in Phoenix. I remain dressed in mourning black.

From ISW on the 19th (from its concise summary) A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces crossed the Russian border into Kharkiv Oblast and occupied unspecified border settlements.[31] Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and near Kreminna.[32] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are strengthening frontline positions west and northwest of Kreminna.[33] Russian forces likely secured marginal gains in the northern suburbs of Bakhmut and in the eastern outskirts of the city.[34] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that degraded Wagner Group formations are narrowing the scope of their offensives in the Bakhmut area due to a lack of forces.[35] Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations along the western outskirts of Donetsk city and around Vuhledar