NamEndedAllen

Indeed. And the “who benefits” question is always a fine one. At this point, we really have no solid irrefutable evidence, so exploring various scenarios - brainstorming - is all we got. A few thoughts: 1. Putin rose to power on the back of his vicious assault on a terrorist/hostage situation in Moscow. It’s widely viewed as his shrewd, brutally effective false flag operation. In comparison, this pinprick is low risk/high return for whipping up a blood lust war frenzy in the heavily government-controlled Russian media environment. 2. I speculated earlier that the recently leaked alleged Talking Points Manual for dealing with the Ukrainian offensive might be laying the groundwork for a Putin/Russia off-ramp, in case of significant losses. The coincidence of the drone attack not long after that Official Talking Points Manual is interesting. Regardless, we could dismiss that longshot speculation and instead consider its opposite. Regardless of who launched the drone attack or why, Putin now has at least significant and contemporary internal support for battlefield use of tactical nukes within Ukraine. If threatened with a looming significant defeat. And the option of claiming legitimacy by way of military use, not the “cowardly” assassination of the political leader. 3. In effect, recent days have strengthened Putin’s options for how to react to significant defeats in Ukraine. In the case of battlefield defeat, seeking a way out of conflict and into peace talks. Of course organized by China. Or for apocalyptic culmination of the war, if bizarrely he cannot see or accept any other way forward. This seems so unlikely and “unacceptable”. But so did the invasion itself. These are extremes. End-of-the-spectrum possibilities. I don’t think either is highly probable. More likely as many have speculated is a grinding onward in back and forth efforts over the next year or two. Or longer. The often suggested collapse of Russia is another outcome, but I am not sure how likely that is. We do know there is a strong current here in the forum and among the Western Allies to prevent it because of the fear of unleashed chaos and thousands of loose nukes. This summer is sure looking like one to remember.

“Snowflakes”

Interesting to consider this Russian publicized alleged assassination attempt, factual or not, quickly followed by the drone explosions over one of Putin’s residences. In the very heart of the heavily fortified complex. Rapid reaction by Ukraine, or just coincidence?

Also of interest is the perfectly located site for the video recording and the timing in the middle of the night of the drones’ approach and their cinematic detonation just above (not on) the building. Should be easy to extrapolate the location of the phone or camera. It’s across the river from the complex

Yes, clearly. Agreed. But the peace talks speculation is that the leak of the supposed Putin Propaganda Directives Manual sets the stage for the aftermath of serious setbacks …such as loss of Crimea. And as you say, puts Ukraine in an unquestionably strong position. The “manual” then provides the excuse - NATO, the USA did it. But we fought valiantly and have survived. That may in turn set the stage for peace talks to follow such a significant loss. If the leaked material is not fake, we may be seeing the groundwork for signaling that Putin might accept an off-ramp. But only if it is “earned”. So much rides on the upcoming offensive{s}. And perhaps on a viable, permitted evacuation from Crimea. Just speculating, but Putin and some of the cooler heads that remain could be weighing their options more rationally as the offensive looms. The outcomes we all have dissected for a couple thousand pages are doubtless well-known to them, especially after the Xi and Defense minister meeting. With no fabulously great outcome of an even longer war realistic, avenues for survival must be coming into consideration along with grim and grimmer war planning in a country that may be one battlefield defeat away from cracking.

Putting together the alleged new Putin propaganda advice manual quoted here that details what to say if Ukraine’s offensive is (or isn’t) successful, with the increasing weight of expert analysis - Ben Hodges, @The_Capt - that Crimea is the necessary key to defeating Russia, we can be excused for thinking that in the event, Putin will not order the use of tactical nukes. If the manual is not fake news, it certainly sounds as if the Russian public and perhaps the Western Allies as well are being prepped for a potential Russian off ramp, soft landing. Liberating Crimea is a big stretch - if it is fought to a long and bitter conclusion. But a premature loss blamed loudly in public on NATO and the US (and of course ultimately the British Overlords!), followed by an evacuation in the interest of saving lives blah blah blah…that puts the ball in Ukraine’s and the West’s court. Time for a cease fire and peace talks? Starting figuring out the political fate of the occupied Donbas?? Long shot speculation: Might China have suggested something like this in their recent talks with both parties?

I think you are correct but with this caveat. IF/WHEN Ukraine were to recapture ALL its territories, the political context and strategies would change rather dramatically. At this point, the questions of NATO and EU membership become far more central than during the past year. As would the overall questions of what guarantees of Ukraine’s defense would the Western Allies be willing to make? In lieu of a genuine real peace, what is realistic and achievable in the case of two implacable nations staring at each other across their (mostly) international borders while periodically lobbing military strikes at each other? Your scenario, a territorially restored Ukraine is a clear Russian defeat - losing everything they had *before* this invasion. We talk a lot about Russian collapse, but that is only one possibility. In this sort of fragile “warm” stalemate, would NATO membership really be much too much risk of collapsing the Russian regime? Too much chaos? If so, does the West have enough feasible carrots to convince an enraged, propagandized and mobilized Russia to stand down? No one knows. Otherwise, I’ve been wondering how much of Russia’s military remains within Russia, especially its ground forces? After seeing the wonderfully detailed posts here of the Russian Order of Battle within Ukraine, and thinking about the numbers of units needed for border security, what’s left? And finally, IF the Russians within Ukraine are severely defeated, reduced and mostly driven back into Russia, apart from the nuclear force what military capability remains on the ground?

With lies, of course! Getting waaaay off topic here. But there isn’t a Constitutional separation of hospital administrators and doctors! Admins don’t surrender their licenses to practice. The assertion was that the same people who make the laws here, do not enforce them. That’s the de jure. But de facto? It’s a bit more nuanced. In real life, the same people go back and forth, changing hats but carrying their baggage with them. The law makers and the adjudicators, administrating the law are often the same people. Just a year or two or so apart. Formally, they are supposed to check their baggage first. I think we all know that in practice it falls quite short of that. Which can and does get dicey. Fact of life and scandals. Maybe that’s ok, unavoidable. Fine. It’s just not quite so black and white. Now back to our regularly scheduled war.

Not arguing about the separation of powers of course, or the ethics that we both embrace! Rather, a side bar observation about the similar circumstance of lawyers and lawmakers - the actual individuals - to the revolving door between industry and the federal Agencies and Departments. Lawyers are inextricably woven into both the creation of our laws and their enforcement & adjudication. In the USA, they are often the very same persons, lawyers in different phases of their careers. Not disputing your second paragraph because we agree! Only pointing out that the same individuals - and they are lawyers, not say, scientists - often occupy both roles and carry with them their individual biases both political and personal. Comments are made here about lawyers, often in rather disparaging ways. Yet they are inseparable from societies’ fabric.

Strictly true. But recall that a great number of lawmakers are indeed lawyers. In the recent 117th Congress, 175 had law degrees. State legislators are also often lawyers. A majority of all US Presidents have been lawyers; 26 iirc.

Shocked…SHOCKED!

A quick google suggests these for a start. James Holland - has a bit more British and Canadian focus than some general works https://www.amazon.com/Normandy-44-D-Day-Battle-France/dp/1787631273 Allied armor efforts https://www.amazon.com/Armoured-Campaign-Normandy-June-August-ebook/dp/B08NXW5DF4/ref=sr_1_9?crid=1F0XP8JM2RV3O&keywords=The+Normandy+campaign&qid=1682445534&sprefix=the+normandy+campaign%2Caps%2C165&sr=8-9 John Keegan’s, updated https://www.amazon.com/Six-Armies-Normandy-Liberation-Revised/dp/0140235426

More on drones reaching nearly to Moscow https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-explosive-drones-are-getting-very-close-to-moscow Several locations in Russia, including near Moscow - as well as Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula it has occupied since 2014 - were reportedly hit by Ukrainian drone attacks Sunday and Monday, according to the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD), local government officials and various media accounts. A Ukrainian UJ-22 drone packed with explosives was found near Moscow, in what appears to be the closest discovery of a weaponized Ukrainian drone near Russia’s capital. However, there was a discrepancy in reporting about exactly where it landed.

China backpedals - and puts itself into the awkward position of officially recognizing Ukraine’s sovereignty. https://www.reuters.com/world/some-eu-ministers-say-china-envoys-remarks-ukraine-sovereignty-unacceptable-2023-04-24/ LUXEMBOURG, April 24 (Reuters) - China respects the status of former Soviet member states as sovereign nations, its foreign ministry said on Monday, distancing itself from comments by its envoy to Paris that triggered an uproar among European capitals.

North Korea agrees with your view. Greece does not.

Absolutely! It’s covered by the long recognized international agreement and supervised by the United Nations that illegal immigrants can vote in all elections. And since 2014, if their home country of citizenship chooses to do so, it’s legal to chase the local citizens out first. Or if feeling generous, deport them. But it still isn’t legal to eat the locals. Yet.

1. What countries recognize Crimea to be within the international borders of Ukraine? 2. What countries recognize Crimea to be within the borders of Russia? BIG HINTS. Also from Wikipedia: 1. Nineteen. Guess which ones, and how many are democracies vs dictatorships 2. One hundred and twelve. Guess how many of the most democratically governed nations in the world are included.

Always! most excellent catch, Redwolf.

Yep. Jim, my longtime mentor, enlisted at 17. He was the youngest guy and the Gunny in a 10th Mtn weapons platoon during Kesselring’s defense of Italy. But Sully made him the platoon leader because…Jim stayed very calm. He only began talking about it in the last ten years of his life, during our long weekly Tuesday coffee sessions. His First Time - he sees the young German soldier, who also sees him. Jim fires first. Looked at the kid’s face later and thought, “Doesn’t look much different than me.” But next day, and the next day and the next: no hesitation, no remorse…simply kill or be killed. End of story.

Please don’t feel the request was aimed only at you! Simply the most recent at the time…rather than a reply to the flood of “Who is the worst in playing badly with others” game. Which should be a separate thread. Please!

Perhaps the poor beaten horse is dead by now? How about getting back to the actual war in Ukraine?

Ahh, I think you are not alone here, oh Dan of CA! However…I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was!

Apparently new information not hashed over already. What had been openly reported at first was only a fraction of what was leaked. I think this may have been due to various Agencies requesting the main news sources to delay releasing parts of the trove. That isn’t unusual in these cases. And Iirc, Wash Post reported having reviewed 300 docs not yet published here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/18/china-supersonic-drone-taiwan-leaks/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert A secret document from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which has not previously been reported, shows the Chinese military is making technological advances that could help it target American warships around Taiwan and military bases in the region. The Washington Post obtained the assessment of the WZ-8 program from a trove of images of classified files posted on Discord, a group chat service popular with gamers, allegedly by a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

No better news about sanctions choking off weapon components. Better than nothing, but still too many leakers getting through. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/business/economy/us-russia-chips-sanctions.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShareRussia Is Importing Western Weapons Technology, Bypassing Sanctions —- Senior tax and trade officials noted a surge in chips and other electronic components being sold to Russia through Armenia, Kazakhstan and other countries, according to slides from the March 24 meeting obtained by The New York Times. And they shared information on the flow of eight particularly sensitive categories of chips and other electronic devices that they have deemed as critical to the development of weapons, including Russian cruise missiles that have been used to strike Ukraine.

Why, next you know, they’ll be claiming MOON landings! And forcing Chuck Berry on us, on the telly thing. Let alone Lordy Lordy & God Save the Queen, Little Richard!!