Indeed! Apart from the Capt’s range of more nuanced post war scenarios and the more aggressive varied positions here, the battlefield has a big vote. Right now, it looks as if Ukraine is making concerted efforts to be holding a big time Royal straight flush at the negotiation table. They and/or Russia and their mutual interlocutors may already be quietly speaking about the shape and size of that table. But won’t the scale and impact of Ukraine’s battlefield victories be the loudest voice? (assuming that the near unanimous opinion here that Russia will not be making a Hail Mary game-ending drive).
What we don’t know is how and when Ukraine’s counter-offensives will culminate. Until then our discussions here are largely academic, and need not boil over. Far too much has already been spilled on the battlefield. My opinion, worth less than you paid for it is that Ukraine has the deciding vote on when open negotiations can start, although certainly not without advice from the Allies. IIRC, fighting continued during drawn out negotiations between North Vietnam and the USA. So both may be carried out in parallel. The currently winning side needn’t call a cease fire until it is good and ready. Does Ukraine definitely see 2014 “borders” as that time? Don’t know.
if settlements were made only by the pure light of reason, perhaps the abstractions of fully rational outcomes would always be the result. Then the Capt’s painstakingly measured best outcome and future projections might somehow come about - AND be stable. Bitterly fought WWI did not end that way. But an unconditional WWII type surrender by Russia is not in the cards, even if they withdrew their various forces. Is there a plausible version though? Collapse appears to be the only Walk Off scenario. And most here see that as either a black hole of misery and nukes, or an even worse replacement than Putin at the helm. Again the Capt has an off-ramp vision of a terrible dictator of a rather broken state, but a sorta kinda tame enough one that we could “ manage” and do business with. Maybe that’s the best we could *reasonably* hope for. Stable? Well, how long did Putin take before beginning to subvert, invade and reduce Russia’s neighboring countries?