NamEndedAllen

And here is an ugly scenario that must have occurred to some in Beijing. Trump again sweeps through the USA Republican primaries, because his enormous base is most concentrated in them. He runs on “Peace & Prosperity” and targets China and its trade policies as the real threat to the American Way of Life. His first act in office is as expected, dropping sanctions on Russia. He invites Putin to the WH. At their Press Conference, Trump carries out his threat to leave NATO and those “war mongering” European nations that keep dragging America into foreign wars. A week later, Trump and Putin announce a new military and economic partnership, hailed by the Right Wing USA Congress. Rather than having the USA facing hostile powers on both the Pacific and the Atlantic, China sees itself sandwiched between the two big nuclear powers, who are also two of the three largest oil exporters on Earth. Couldn’t happen. But still, best to keep the USA just a bit off balance by not abandoning its long time Red ally, in its great time of need.

There was a Seymour Hersh decades ago who had some credibility as a journalist. Then he went so far off the rails of factual, evidence based, credible reporting he couldn’t get back. I thought he’d been dead for years. This must be some sort of last gasp by him to regain a sliver of recognition. This ties a bow on his shame.

This could be getting interesting. And more complicated. And political as election season in the USA heats up. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-ambassador-un-warns-china-crossing-red-line-provides-lethal-aid-rus-rcna71392

Bring on the ATACMS!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-officials-believe-china-may-providing-russia-non-lethal-military-as-rcna71336 Feb. 18, 2023, 11:02 AM PST By Courtney Kube The US believes China may be providing non-lethal military assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine, according to four US officials familiar with the matter, and the administration is concerned they are considering sending lethal aid. While China has provided some help to Russia, including parroting Russian disinformation campaigns about the war and promoting Russian false pretexts about the war, this is more tangible assistance for use by Russian troops in Ukraine, according to sources familiar with the matter. The officials declined to provide specifics about the non-lethal military assistance, but said it could include gear for the spring offensive like uniforms or even body armor.

Really well-expressed, informative post. Thanks. One thing to know about the trade between the two, regarding Shanghai: “According to a 2020 census, about 157,900 people from Taiwan resided in mainland China, a roughly 7% decrease over the preceding decade. The entire island of Taiwan was home to about 23.6 million people in 2020, slightly less than Shanghai’s population of roughly 25 million people at the time. However, Taiwan’s economy is larger than Shanghai’s, at about $781.58 billion versus $680.31 billion last year, according to official figures. In 2021, Shanghai’s share of mainland China’s GDP was 3.8%.” AND ALSO: “Taiwan’s business and economic ties with mainland China and Hong Kong have grown so large that the region is by far the island’s largest trading partner. Many large Taiwanese companies in high-tech industries such the world’s biggest chipmaker — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC. — operate factories in mainland China. Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the U.S. had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information.” https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/taiwans-trade-with-china-is-far-bigger-than-its-trade-with-the-us.html

Essentially, almost all of it! So, yeah. China would have to look hard at the solidarity in trade sanctions against Russia. And the loss of its massive imports from Taiwan. Not saying this is decisive. But in any large power not named Russia, certainly a major brake on adventurism. (more countries follow, but with smaller snd smaller amounts, into just millions, not billions. China Exports By Country Value Year United States $577.13B 2021 Hong Kong $349.44B 2021 Japan $165.82B 2021 South Korea $148.85B 2021 Vietnam $137.90B 2021 Germany $115.18B 2021 Netherlands $102.43B 2021 India $97.51B 2021 United Kingdom $87.03B 2021 Malaysia $78.70B 2021 Thailand $69.36B 2021 Russia $67.55B 2021 Mexico $67.44B 2021 Australia $66.38B 2021 Indonesia $60.65B 2021 Philippines $57.31B 2021 Singapore $55.22B 2021 Brazil $53.61B 2021 Canada $51.51B 2021 France $46.39B 2021 United Arab Emirates $43.82B 2021 Italy $43.63B 2021 Poland $36.58B 2021 Spain $36.13B 2021 Belgium $30.38B 2021 Saudi Arabia $30.32B 2021 Turkey $29.15B 2021

I was curious about the entire trade and economics scale in all this. The economic ties between China and the USA are well known. I know less about the amount of trade between Taiwan and China. And how important Taiwan’s exports are for China. As far as I could tell, imports from Taiwan are China’s second largest, behind the entire combined EU, and ahead of the USA. Please correct if wrong. Looked first at importance of China for Taiwan’s exports, and then the importance of Taiwan for China as an overall source for its own imports. The chart was surprising to me. A blockade would hurt China, let alone the destruction of much of Taiwan’s infrastructure. Apologies if this was already well covered.. “Last year, mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for 42% of Taiwan’s exports, while the U.S. had a 15% share, according to official Taiwan data accessed through Wind Information. In all, Taiwan exported $188.91 billion in goods to mainland China and Hong Kong in 2021. More than half were electronic parts, followed by optical equipment, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance. As a source of Taiwan’s imports, mainland China and Hong Kong again ranked first with a 22% share. The U.S. only had a 10% share, ranking behind Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia.” Taiwan's trade with China is far bigger than its trade with the U.S. cnbc.com China Imports from Taiwan - January 2023 Data - 2014-2022 Historical tradingeconomics.com China Imports by Country Last Previous European Union 34693700.00 24717800.00 USD THO Feb/20 Taiwan 19225530.44 17419298.71 USD THO Dec/22 United States 15911753.06 16476130.54 USD THO Dec/22 Japan 14715460.09 14153420.64 USD THO Dec/22 South Korea 14379358.00 15370164.00 USD THO Dec/22 Australia 11070900.79 11761709.91 USD THO Dec/22 Malaysia 10210735.40 10212144.54 USD THO Dec/22 Germany 9088666.45 9003880.69 USD THO Dec/22 Russia 8996554.28 10544850.94 USD THO Dec/22 Brazil 8216881.95 8541338.47 USD THO Dec/22

Here you go: the Venn Diagram intersection of of the endless Abrams debate and the becoming endless AI Uber Alles debate: New images have emerged of a U.S. Army M1 Abrams tank sporting an experimental artificial intelligence (AI)-driven target recognition system designed to speed up how fast threats can be spotted and engaged https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/m1-abrams-tank-tested-with-artificial-intelligence-targeting-system Next someone will find how this overlaps with the (private) Capitalism vs (state) Capitalism debate. And evolution. And “balloons”. But eventually, back to Ukraine: From today’s ISW: Key Takeaways US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signaled on February 14 that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s 54 member states will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. The Washington Post reported that US officials have privately signaled to Ukraine that Western security aid to Ukraine is finite, however. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly recruiting convicts and mimicking the Wagner Group’s treatment of convicts as cannon fodder. Russian forces continued offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on February 14. Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City on February 14. Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast or in Kherson, Mykolaiv, or western Zaporizhia oblasts on February 14. Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia have been reduced to one-fifth of their initial strength numbers before the invasion of Ukraine, supporting ISW’s longtime assessment that the Kremlin is not concerned about a NATO conventional military threat against Russia. A Ukrainian and Tatar partisan group reportedly conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a car carrying two Russian military personnel and two Russian special service representatives in Nova Kakhovka on February 10. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may meet on February 17.

That was then. This is now. Russia’s genocidal invasion has focused the world’s attention to the singular question, “What have you done for us today?” Oh! Death, destruction, hate, poison, mass suffering, and crimes against humanity. Well, then…

Exactly so. Always has been and always will be, because this, and the other extreme you mentioned, too much “social care” represent the dynamic in societies between the eternals of human greed vs human group solidarity/allegiance (goes by many names). Unsurprisingly, this is never settled. We as individuals each embrace a position along the spectrum from absolute dominance of the individual all the way to absolute control by society, the state. Each nation has a “set point” that gets tugged in one direction or the other as the after effects of new policies push beyond it. Until enough steam is built up to either correct the tilt, or force a new set point. Some nations achieve a better perceived balance for a time than others. But nothing lasts forever, because…hunan nature. Dividing up the resources is an endless negotiation - among nations, it’s “trade”. Unless it becomes war. Yes. And amen. To both your sentences. Of course the problem is, In theory that’s how economic systems should work. In practice, there will always be the eternal impulse to be utterly free of being controlled, “regulated”, no matter who or what is doing the regulating. Even when it is ourselves!

&*#$ it! Then how about, “Burned out lamp post light”?

Just as I suggested earlier. And why they need a cheaper platform that augments their satellite takes.

How about an annoying Yard Gnome?

Nah. That is a non sequitor. And we and other nations talk about each others’ intelligence satellites in the open, often. But I get it! You have very good reasons for your couching of your analysis in this way. And you may be right! You’ve underscored that you don’t see their persistent method as useful in any way, end of story, without acknowledging the normal caution that we do not know what *they* think. But we ought not to entirely substitute OUR reasoning for the Chinese. Or exclusively for any enemy. Too rigid. BIG CAVEAT: you actually DO know what they are thinking and therefore why they are continuing this long term surveillance program, and that in that light it *is* a failure - but cannot say that, even unofficially. That would be understandable and trump the normal caution.

Piers Morgan? PIERS MORGAN! Hardly a journalist. Definitely a twit.

This is the part that we don’t know much about. We can say what it is from *our* point of view, but we sure as heck don’t know what it is from the Chinese military and government POV. Other than they’ve been flying these drones over many countries for quite a few years. And in several variants. Whether the Big One shot down last week was launched by mistake (unlikely) or in error of judgment (pretty likely!), the open, public clashing is definitely up a few notches. To what end is guesswork.

Perhaps you are completely right, and the Chinese rather uncharacteristically don’t know what they are doing. Just flailing about wasting time overflying several nations with slow moving intelligence drones. Or maybe their satellites aren’t as advanced as ours. Or maybe they do know about what you have reported but still find these slow, large drones to be useful - for them. Open-mindedly, we may not know what they know. But we do know they’ve been doing this for years and with rather large, satellite sized payloads. That much is factual. Much else is speculative.

And THIS summarizes the whole topic with a dramatically loud mic drop. The sad asterisk is that there are any number of people in most places who actually prefer genocide of those they hate, and embrace the monster. As history sadly underscores. Speaking as “a child of the 60’s”, the wave of social and cultural change usually meant by “the 60’s” began with the Civil Rights movement. That can be overlooked at the distance from the present. The putting bodies on the line for the sake of those being lynched, beaten, hung, and dragged through the streets. We LOVED our country. We simply did not love our political leaders and those who supported their repressive, segregationist policies. And who then led the country into a bizarrely obscure conflict in Asia and eventually a full scale war full of tragedy and horror for all concerned. And after the war’s early stages, that too did not seem to uphold the values and ideals of the country we loved and it’s Constitution. All this can easily be drowned out by the ensuing storm and drang of the mixed up and quite colorful culture wars. If we called them drones instead of “balloons”, the discussions would have a quite different tone. The word “balloon” often carries with it a dismissive sense, a party toy, a clownish display.That is a mistake. The payload is the key. And these overflight payloads are from toys. And snickering about. The first and highly publicized shoot down had a payload the size of two busses. The Air Force’s DMSP sat is 25 feet long, but that includes its solar panels. The sensor package weighs 772 pounds. OTOH, the USA NROL-44 is huge in size and expense, but very high altitude geosynchronous orbit, 22,200+ miles. Weighs about five tons. The second shoot down last week had a payload the size of an automobile, and weighed roughly 1,000 pounds. That is at the top end of medium satellites, bordering on the large category. So we can understand that these “balloons” are essentially very slow, steerable flight platforms that carry intelligence payloads of the size and scale of both military and civilian satellites. And do not require enormous and expensive rockets to launch them into orbit, Lastly, their sophisticated sensor suites are far closer to intended targets for optical/camera or signals intelligence purposes. Which means their weight, sensitivity and thus expense can be much less than for comparable orbiting platforms. Bottom line, they aren’t toys.

Thanks for this. Good to see a recent overview of these actions. The focus on primarily the several Russian pushescan obscure what the AFU is doing elsewhere.

If only Ukraine had them…

FLY, EAGLES, FLY! And for the Cognoscenti…IGGLES!

It’s a one line reply to the billbindc post about China.You missed it even though quoted?

Will be interested in how they plan to avoid the Ukraine/USA intel magic eye(s) and ears, once things start coalescing for each spearhead. Also, the tantrum by Musk about denying Ukraine Starlink use for drones is suspiciously coinciding with this buildup.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/f-22-shoots-down-new-object-flying-high-over-alaskan-waters