Panserjeger

Barbarian.  Clearly there are times that no other word will do:

And finally, assessments of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the part of the enemy.
Several Russian publics, more or less adequate (and therefore not very well known “in their own family”), quite unanimously came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had planned, organized and worked out their actions through the Dnieper in advance. I won’t point them out now, so as not to advertise the enemy, but I will point out that they argued their conclusions quite adequately:
- The Russians were unpleasantly surprised by the speed and efficiency of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units, especially in the area of increasing their efforts. “First, 2-3 sabotage groups are found there, then they form a platoon, and after a couple of days, when they have gained a foothold, they begin to transport mortars there and a company already appears there, and so on.”
- Also, they came to the conclusion that the Ukrainian command had found an opportunity, in some still unknown way, to ensure the replenishment of their advanced units and organize their logistical support, in sufficient quantities and with appropriate efficiency (otherwise the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not have been able to conduct intensive combat operations on the bridgeheads for a more or less long period of time, and they, in addition, manage to expand them).
- It is also obvious that the width along the front and the main areas and directions of active actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “through the Dnieper” were not chosen at all by chance. They are clearly tied to the nature of the terrain, the composition and operational formation of Russian troops, even the water level and the most successful and convenient places for landing and hidden advance in the floodplain are taken into account. The Russians come to the conclusion that they are dealing with a carefully planned and prepared, especially in the field of intelligence, operation to seize and hold bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper. Although, of course, they believe that by “restoring order” and “concentrating efforts” they have a significant chance of eliminating them.

For those who have forgotten, let me remind you that I already wrote that from the 7th Airborne Division in this direction, until recently there were essentially only three battalions (171st separate air assault battalion, 104th separate tank battalion and 162nd separate reconnaissance battalion). The main forces of the division (3 of its air assault regiments) were, at one time, transferred “near Verbovoe” to take part in flank counterattacks against the advancing Ukrainian group.
Well, now, given the fact that with the “flank counterattacks” in the Tokmak direction, nothing meaningful happened anyway, and the Ukrainian marines staged a fatal counter-strike for the Russian motorized rifles and mobs in the Dnieper floodplains, Monsieur Teplinsky clearly demanded from his “senior commanders” return this formation of airborne troops “back” to him. Let me remind you that the regular position of this general is commander of the airborne troops of the Russian Federation.
However, the fact is that the Russian command is now unable to pull out the main forces of the 7th Airborne Division from under Verbovoy in the Tokmak direction “purely physically.” The division's 108th and 247th air assault regiments are closely involved in the fighting. And the 56th Airborne Regiment, which has already been reorganized “almost anew” 2 times, can send “to Teplinsky” right now no more than 2 of its battalions. Although, probably, “a little later,” this Feodosian rabble will go to the Dnieper in full force (if it hasn’t already).
As for the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, 2 of its motorized rifle regiments are ALREADY involved - the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment is still unsuccessfully trying to push our marines back from Krynki to the flooded areas, and the 28th Motorized Rifle Regiment is probably included in the second echelon of the tactical group operating along the line Peschanka - Podstepnoe, north of the village of Radensk, somewhere southwest of the village of Chelburda. At least one small infantry regiment and another tank regiment (tp) of this division are also “roaming somewhere.”
A month ago there was information about the tank regiment that it was continuing to be “reformed” in northern Crimea, and the motorized rifle regiment was allegedly concentrated in the area of Skadovsk.
Be that as it may, the enemy will soon be forced to “deal with the problem of Ukrainian bridgeheads” on the Dnieper. After all, if they leave this issue to chance, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will still be able to get a section of coastline on the right bank of the river, where the bulk of Russian artillery will not reach. It’s not for me to explain to you what it will be.
Naturally, it still has to be reliably covered from the air. On this score, I also have certain, far from unfounded (judging by the information coming from the troops) hopes.

A bit of statistics about this thread.
First post 11.2.2022.
Page 1000 on 7.7.2022, 2000 on 3.2.2023 and 3000 on 6.11.2023.
It took 146 days for the first 1000. Then 211 for the next and another 276 for the last. So we are slowing down.
With a bit of extrapolation, it will take 318 days for the next 1000 - that would be September 19, 2024. Let's hope we are discussion the end of the war by then.
 

3000 pages, one thousand for each day of the three-day special military operation?

As usual, I'm suddenly finding I accomplished something entirely by accident and feel a culturally ingrained need to apologise...

But hey-ho, back to work.

This is Mashovets I presume? Where the hell does this guy get his information from that he can cite enemy single-digit precision personel numbers? He too has become a source I've lost some trust in over time, especially after he claimed in June or July already that the Russians had to throw most of their strategic reserves into the South to hold the line or some similar nonsense.
Saw this yesterday already and felt incredibly saddened. My wife was still pregnant when this tragedy occurred and now our daughter is taking her first steps, while lies dead besides his. Words can not describe how much I hate this war.

Video of 3rd assault brigade squad, holding own position under intensive mortar fire - several shells hit almost on breastwork of the trench. Soldiers fire at recon Mavic and say this was second shot down drone. Then FPV attacks them, but missed. Soldiers fire at some invisible target in the trees and one cries "Look out FPV!". At the end M113 has arrived to change them on position with other squad
 

I suspect that patriotism, like christianity, has falling poll numbers for the same reason:  these concepts are being polluted by scoundrels.  Young people are less likely to be religious because the religious have given religion a bad name.  Same w patriotism, where extremist, ignorant, monsters claim the mantle of patiotism.  But I bet that if the US were attacked, these same young people would sign up in droves to fight.  Just like in Ukraine, where all these allegedly sissy-fied young people are now cold-*** killers.

I was going for a more mocking angle to be honest.  Since the dawn of time people - usually old people - have somehow hooked whatever social ills they see onto a crisis.  “Moral decline”, “Hippies”, “Homosexuality”, “Women who can vote”!
Human social systems are naturally a mix of progressiveness and conservatism.  And rarely, if ever, does a war start based solely on whatever social issue means most to you.  We did not start wars because “the church” since the Crusades, possibly the Middle Ages - and even then there was a whole lotta money and power at play.  We sure as hell have never started a war over any of the rest of “damn kids these days” stuff.
The West is not going to fall over the obsolescence of religion or LGBTQ issues, or whatever you are worried about.  Why?  Because it didn’t last time with “women voting”, “civil rights” and “rock and/or roll”.  In fact since those End Times, the West has continued it rise in power and wealth.  
If anything does destroy the West it will be power hungry egomaniacs that leverage all that social angst into something really dangerous.  They aren’t doing it because they really care about our church/mosque/raccoon ratios - they are doing it to take more power.  The dismantling of democracy, social divisions that turn cancerous, deep corruption and greed- this is how empires die.  Not because we decide to stop going to freakin church and start this strange new thing called “meditation”.  

And “raccoon stealing”…let’s not forget that.  As if raccoons have no agency of their own!  
Emptying our raccoon churches and filling them with ambiguously self-identifying marmots…wake up sheeple!

I get that you might be having a bad day but there is so much unwarranted angst in this post: absolutely nobody in “The West” argues that children should have the right to choose their gender.  No-one is emptying our churches (though there are many fewer people heading in) and less than nobody is “emptying churches so they can be turned into mosques”.
Reconsider the merits of whatever media source has told you these things.  You rightly identify that we are in a collision of systems but make no mistake: it is the enemies of our Western system who promote misinformation such as what you posted above in order to foster the very division you warn against.   Seeing through that, being less angry about things that aren’t happening and therefore being a part of a secure Western system is the best way to maintain focus and win. 

CMBS reflects reality of 2011-2012, when artillery had usual Soviet communicatin system. In 2014 during ATO calling of fire of supporting unit of artilery brigade could take 15-30 minutes and some less for own brigade artilelry. Since 2015 Ukrianian volunteers developed special softawre for PDAs, which could communicate each other via digital radio network or via commercial sattelite, so some local information battlspace can be created and this allowed to increase significantly accuracy of coordinates determination, reduce a time of artillery firing data calculation and got fast information exchange between different levels and units, so even usual platoon commander or recon got an opportunity to target the enemy, without artillery spotters and if arty wasn't busy, they could open fire through 3 munutes (when it was ready to fire) and their fire could be ajusted immediately. 
But all ajustment and targeting anyway was classical - from the ground. Ukrainain army became use drones for artillery ajustment only since 2016-2017, when first Furia and Leleka in small numbers went to artillery brigades. Civil drones like Mavics in that time were not widely used, mostly some mortar batteries and recons had them. The art of drone usage - recon, spotting, targeting, ajustmemt, dropping - have been developing through several years of ATO and rised on new level since large-scale war. So, classical CMBS shouldn't have enough fast artillery fire call and ajustment. But anyway it should be more fast than in CMCW. 

Pretty impressive counter battery work of a sort - track a GRAD to it's base.  Then destroy everything that's there - vehicles, ammo, personnel.
 

Russians moved to front even old experimental armor, which wasn't in service of Russian army. Near Avdiivka was spotted BTR-90 "Rostok". This is developing of 1994 year armed with 30 mm gun in the turret similar to BMP-2. Despite MoD adopted this APC in 2008, it was never ordered. Later in 2011 MoD finally rejected BTR-90 for the sake of developing of newest platform "Boomerang". Later BTR-82/82A was choosen as wheeled APC
Probably only several BTR-90 exists. 

 

Situation around Avdiivka

UKR TGs wrote today Russians continued hevay bombardments of the city and our posiotions with artillery and aviation, but amout of artilelry/MLRS fire is less than day ago. About 10 airstrikes. Russian asaults today also not so intencive and mass as yesterday. If yesterday Russians operated mostly with company-sized units, that today are mostly platoon-sized. UKR TG source said we have also many damaged and destroyed vehicles because of massive artilery fire, airstrikes and drone atatcks.
Russians from the south try to breakthrough from Vodiane to Lastochkyne to cut off a road to Avdiivka. Despite they could yesterday to seize several our positions they couldn'r reach own objectives and lost many armor and infantry there. This is reflected on the map above.
On the northern flank map of Poulet Volant has some inaccuracy - in area of height 230 (waste heap of coke plant) Russians had advanced much closer to this artifical hill than on the map of French OSINTer. 

Just example of the scale of yesterday Russian assault groups
 
Some videos of yesterday Russian armor hits
Video of 116th TDF brigade of Poltava oblast - northern flank, west from Krasnohorivka. Russian tank with "tankodesantniki" has blown up by mine
Russian drone observes destroyed armor of 114th motor-rifle brigade of DPR and their infantry
Javelin of 53rd mech.brigade hit Russian armor (southern flank)
Continuing of this episode - two Russian BMPs damged in tree-line, third disembarked troops and had time to flee as HE and DPCIM artillery shell impact near infantry
Likely continuing - simalar to the same location - Russians inspired by Hamas attack, decided to breakthrough on two bykes, but... Logo of 53rd mech.brigade
 

This is a very interesting point! And again, I can’t offer too much details about specific things but let’s keep it on general terms. Keeping the equipment running goes according to the same principle for both sides. Damaged and recovered equipment which in Western military operations would never see action again goes back into action in Ukraine. Damaged and structurally compromised equipment is better than no equipment. That tank or IFV that saved the crew first time around may not or certainly will not save the crew next time but it’s going back in.
If the armor on the left hand side is compromised after hit with RPG it’s not disqualified from action in Ukraine. Run a mine and destroy the mine protection, it’s either replaced or disqualified in NATO conflict. In Ukraine, it’s welded up with industrial grade steel and resembling bucket from Home Depot on the damaged side, it’s going back in! Real quote “left side is compromised? Does that mean if we get hit on the right hand side we will survive? Maybe? Ok, if maybe it’s going back in!”
Out of necessity, like fighting without body armor, as long as your AK-platform fires you got a chance!
Same for Russians. I wish we could have these “health bars” we see in video games projecting on top of equipment. I’d be hard pressed to find, primarily Russian, equipment that has more than 50-70% vitality left. If it was piece of junk before, imagine what it is after no or little maintenance or worse being hit by western equipment?
But it still rolls and it maybe fires. The increase in “suicide tanks” last month or so is for this exact reason. Turret probably damaged beyond functional repair but tracks work. Load it with shells, mines, anything that explodes and send it with brick on gas pedal towards Ukrainians. Better value than pulling something they can’t repair anyway back home in Russia. This goes back into previous post, long term the Russians are screwed. Only if West assumes that now invisible health bar glows healthy green than critically wounded red are the Russians going to stand a chance and we will come to regret it.
On the morale side, can only speculate but knowing little bit of the inner workings of Eastern Europe military. Combination of indoctrinations (read brainwashing), hard drugs, in group and third party punishments, and primarily at this point - apathy. Man that looses fear in combat fights without anything to lose, including his life. Fear suggests you have something to live for, if nothing else for sole purpose of survival. Being under these conditions, probably injured many of them, left with only punishment if you speak up, and far from any chance of getting out of this hell. They become hollow shells of their own humanity, like walking dead. You would never treat soldiers or put them through circumstances Russians do in the West. It’s unheard of and thus we have hard time comprehending it.
Edit: “third party punishments” as in your family members back home threatened to be or actually harmed by your own actions at the front. Surrender and you will survive but rest assured your family will not.

Too early.  That is a really tough one without being inside the UA staff and knowing the details.  Of course there was political pressure, we were talking about a UA offensive months before it happened.  But there were also military factors.  How long do you let the RA dig in?  How long to replace losses from their failed winter offensives?  What was the force generation trajectory for UA reinforcements?  How are sustainment and enablers holding up?
My guess is that 1) the UA knew the RA was pretty badly mauled, 2) was creating a Putin line of defence along their most likely axis of advance, and 3) they were in about as good a shape as they were going to get.  Alternatively, perhaps the UA knew the offensive would take much longer to yield results and wanted to get to those benchmarks before Winter.  
The UA tried a western style larger push at the beginning and they all got blunted pretty badly.  So they switched to Kherson style small bites, which also would have been programmed into any options analysis.
Finally, the rules of war are all up in the air.  I am a broken record on that point.  Take any metrics you may have about how war is supposed to work and throw them out the window.  We have never had a war operationally like this one since Iran-Iraq in the 80s.  We have not had one strategically since Korea.  We did learn that minefields, ATGMs and stand-off tac aviation still work for the RA, even if their arty has been degraded.  It appears that even basic tac ISR is working for the RA in holding a line.  The RA are leaning on what they are good at…lots of troops dug in.
What is surprising is RA morale.  How on earth they are holding it together after last winter is beyond me - I guess that Russian steel is still out there.  They have also managed to keep an operational system floating after horrendous losses.  As we discussed, the bar is much lower on defence, but still…
So here we are, waiting for something to happen.  Or not, which is still something.  Can the RA still break?  Definitely. Can the UA fail and lose initiative?  Definitely.  Is you favourite pet platform going to make a difference, probably not, but we should probably keep pushing it anyway.
 

This is kind of the same logic that terrorists use when killing civilians in Europe and USA.
 

Oh my someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.  I was more playfully talking about the pearl clutching and hand wringing "the half empty glass is breaking!!" sentiment, which appears to be spreading.  Long list of posts with that tone have your name at the top going way back, hence why I "pulled you in"...and you never disappoint!
So we have moved from the monolithic invincible Russia specter, to "how long can Ukraine possibly hold out?!"
As long as they want/need/have/can?  I sense you, and many others, are really struggling with the unknowns in all this.  Welcome to war.  It is a collision of certainties that create massive uncertainty.  The RA is a "shattered shell" of what we feared on 21 Feb 23 - you can debate that one all day but it is done.  It will take a decade or more to rebuild what they were shooting for back in the 10s.  They broke it all over Ukraine last year; talk about bad decisions.  But they can Defend - as the old Prussian also said, that part is easier, but it does not get the business done.
So how long can Ukraine "last" really depends on what they are doing.  Can they freeze this conflict in place - yeuup, the RA suicide-fest last winter proved that one.  Can they re-take all of former Ukraine...well, jury is still out.  Can, as a nation, they sustain a war longer than Russia?  Well we will see.  Are we talking low-intensity "we are all dug in and raiding now and again"?  Sure.  Are we talking insanely high intensity combat - well probably not, no one really can.
My main point is that just because you can't get answers you want does not automatically mean the worst is happening.  Based on what I can see (not imagine I am seeing, like fully functioning Russian rail systems pouring thousands of tons of supplies onto fat happy Russian defenders), the West is committed through the Winter at least.  If Ukraine can pull off a breakthrough and regain some momentum, they have a good chance at some serious gains- as we have seen in this war, no one cracks like the RA.
If no breakthroughs happen and all we get is very expensive leg humping, then I expect some difficult political conversations are on the table late-Winter, early-Spring.  Maybe we call it where it stands and everyone wins/loses.  Putin can claim the "greatest Russian victory since Bagration" as he retains an extra 6% of now-blasted and mined wasteland, that cost them 100k lives.  Russia can go back and lick its wounds while trying to figure out who to fend off NATO, who scored Finland and Sweden out of this deal - Russia got a pretty weak China...and the big stuffy animal filled with asbestos that is Iran.  Oh and lets not forget the BFF of North Korea - like being best friends with that weird kid who tortures bugs at recess while touching himself, and everyone tries not to notice.
Ukraine gets to stay Ukraine, starts laying mines - hey look they can do it too! And we wind up with a Korean solution.  Maybe Ukraine does not even get to enter into NATO or EU, but money and alliances will be created because containing Russia matters now - South Korea made it work pretty well and their capital is under gun range of one of the craziest MFs since his Dad.       
https://datacommons.org/place/country/KOR/?utm_medium=explore&mprop=amount&popt=EconomicActivity&cpv=activitySource,GrossDomesticProduction&hl=en
To my mind, that is about as bad it will get, at least as things stand right now.  If the West - especially Europe, cuts Ukraine lose entirely, then this whole show was a complete waste of time as Ukraine will not be able to survive for long without a massive reconstruction/investment effort - we let that happen, well we deserve what happens next. 
I know this is not the war you ordered, sir, but it is the one we got.

Hey all, I just started a new thread on the Israel war that hit us today.  Hoping to keep this thread more on UKR war.
 
 
 

Yeah, the correct answer is obviously 'it depends'.
I don't recall what the specific area of effect for each submunition is, but let's go with a grenade, so a lethal radius (for unprotected upright soldiers) of 5m, which means you want submunitions landing in a regular pattern about 2-3m apart if your target is unprotected upright soldiers, which equates to one sub approx every 5m2
Vehicular targets is a different problem - for those - and especially for even lightly armoured targets - you need a direct hit since the jet from a shaped charge doesn't have an area effect; either it really ruins your day or gives you a giggle. And, again, I don't really know what number of hits you'd need to get on an armoured target to assure an effect - and anyway that depends again on the target - truck vs MRAP vs BMP vs T-72, the answer is different for each.
The top area of a T-72 is 7m x 3.5m = 21.5m2. The projected area for an object approaching at about 40° from the horizontal - ie what a DPICM round would actually be faced with - would be different, and smaller (I think? Pretty sure smaller?) but I can't be bothered doing the maths to figure that out, so for this we'll just assume the rounds are approaching vertically. So if you just went with the infantry approach of one sub per 5m2 you'd be looking at most likely getting four hits on any T-72s within the impact area. That's probably good enough for government work, which means that you don't need to adjust the height of burst for different target types (handy!) and also means you could design the dispersal to work optimally at the standard height for a prox fuze (handy!).
Each 155mm M864 round carries 72 subs (of two different types, but for this we'll assume equivalent effectiveness). Assuming even distribution, each round can cover an area of about 350m2, or a circle of radius 10-to-11m ... which is tiny for a 155mm round. A battery shoot of six guns with one shooting at the centre of the circle and the remaining 5 distributed around a ring or radius 20m ... you're only looking at a battery impact zone of radius 30m which isn't barely enough to cover a platoon defensive position, and unlikely to contain more than one vehicle.
Hmm. That can't be right.
Let's double the dispersion (and drop the effectiveness); so subs in a regular pattern 5-6m apart, or one every 24m2. That gives each round a potential effective area of 1700m2, or a radius of 23-to-24m, which is broadly equivalent to unitary HE rounds (handy!).
So, if you want to increase the effectiveness - or increase the assurance of effect - you can then pump more rounds onto the target, or use time fuzes and fiddle about with the height of burst; lower for denser and increased effectiveness but lower coverage, higher for sparser and lower effectiveness by increased coverage.
Or, to put that another way, lower HOB for armoured or dug in targets, higher HOB for unarmoured or exposed targets.
Either way, though, accurate targetting is key. If you are even 50m off with your target grid you are going to miss and have no effect.

How does one provide cover from smart-DPICM raining from the sky?  This is a criticism I have about the entire "tank defence", it picks a few threats and goes "we can solve for that".  What it fails to do is recognize:
1) The technology to defeat any counters is moving too fast.  As Steve notes every time a solution is found, two more pop up.  Ok, we layer APS on everything to counter those pokey and vulnerable ATGMs.  Then someone builds an ATGM with sub-munitions, so Javelin 2030 (tm) splits into 6 smart attack vehicles and APS can't keep up.  Oh wait there is more...standoff EFP.  Worked very well for insurgents in Iraq and is aching for a comeback.  Now you could have a ATGM that essentially explodes 50m out and drives a slug thru your tank.  Now APS needs to push out even further.  The trends of lighter, smaller, cheaper and smarter are accelerating anti-tank weaponry to the point that the tank is trending towards marginalization.
2) The entire tank system is too damn fragile.  Even the tank itself is pretty fragile.  The thing need only take a few sub-munition hits and one can knock out the engine, or the gun, or the track.  Then all of the support systems from forward repair, to recovery, to logistical support are also heavy, hot and easily spotted.  So now one has to bubble wrap that entire system just to keep the tanks in motion - even assuming away all the threats to the tank itself.  I am pretty sure our gas trucks burn as well as Russian ones.
The tank is being squeezed, along with the rest of mech.  And it is also being replaced.  If the job was to hurl energy at targets from 2kms+ back, well we kinda got that covered off without needing 50 ton behemoths to do it.  Infantry support...this one is interesting especially in this war.  Between ISR and UAS, infantry and artillery have formed an unholy union.  Add in UAS attack capability and if infantry need something under cover to die there are ways to do it not involving a multi-million dollar vehicle that needs a Broadway production just to keep it rolling from A to B.
I am sure people will still buy tanks.  They built battleships for years even after they were pushed out.  But the trend will be lighter, longer, lethal and cheaper.  We will see militaries de-aggregate into lethal mist.  If someone brings expensive, big, hot and heavy to a fight that mist will simply rust the entire heavy system to ash.  No, mist on mist is where this is going.  
   

I always loved that painting.

One way to look at it is to consider what the Russians get out of the Black Sea Fleet:
Roving air defence/radar pickets that are much harder to track down than land-based assets. Strike capability with a much easier avenue of attack on Ukrainian grain exports- whether at sea or in port. As we've seen recently with Poland, forcing Ukraine to seek other means of distributing it's grain can create political friction within supporting international structures. Logistics back-up for the Kerch Bridge. A fleet-in-being: because naval forces can move faster and with less restrictions than land-based forces, Ukraine constantly needs to worry about what the BSF might do and where it might be today. That uses up assets and bandwidth that Ukraine could be using elsewhere, as well as impinging on Ukraine's freedom of action. Remove the Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine should have an easier time striking Russian logistics infrastructure in Crimea (only having to deal with comparatitvely predictable land based air defence (which they've been striking)), which should significantly degrade Russian forces in the south and lube up the counter-offensive.

That's on top the psychological benefits- we all saw the reaction when Ukraine sank Moskva. That wasn't only an important boost for Ukraine, but demonstrated Ukrainian abilities and resolve to the world.

Stuff like that.