Zeleban

Typical example is the start button of motorcycles. The Brits invented it and sold the patent to the Japanese as British bikers were traditionalists and preferred kick starters. Like they say it is now history, I loved my Yamaha with the electric starter granted Triumphs were nice bikes too. 

I was not talking about the the Ukraine air force:
https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-air-superiority-stopping-counteroffensive-zelensky-42a53972
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Russian air superiority was "stopping" Kyiv's counteroffensive, complaining of the slow rate of both Western arms deliveries and sanctions on Russia.
Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration at criticism that Ukraine's counteroffensive has been too slow.
"If we are not in the sky and Russia is, they stop us from the sky. They stop our counteroffensive," Zelensky said, calling for more "powerful and long-range" weapons.
There was not time to equip and train Ukraine for the air warfare needed. That's why a no-fly zone should not be have been out of question early or now; nor would it precipitate escalation. We would be defending the skies over a nation we have given billions to and have killed thousands of Russian anyway. If Russia wants to escalate - Where's The Beef? 
Figuring out Russian is impossible and trying to define their line in the sand as well. Free nations can't let this ambiguity in the way while watching a nation like Ukraine evaporate. 
BTW the S400 and 300 are not at all feared within the USAF. Sort of like a annoying bug on a summer night. Could they get lucky - sure. But never in a tactically meaningful way. This comes from a family member in USAF intel. This is because the operators are idiots and the mechanics are broken down.
Ukrainians are dying because of our fear of escalation which why I brought up the subject of "speak softly; and carry a big stick" i.e. diplomacy and staring down the enemy. There are reasons we don't that are beyond the scope of this thread. 

It would be idiotic to bash any country on this. The US threw it's weight in early and now the EU is stepping  up. It's *great* news that Europe is leaning in this hard and will be understood to be quite bad news in Moscow. 

Please don‘t take this post as bait for country bashing. It is just facts.
Europe (EU & non-EU) has now twice the amount of (pledged!) support for Ukraine. Dark blue is short term, light blue long term support.
Took us a while but it is not that the US bears the brunt of the support alone anymore. Article in German.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/aktuelles/ukraine-support-tracker-europa-sagt-jetzt-doppelt-so-viel-unterstuetzung-zu-wie-die-usa/
 

Anduril (Oculus guy’s drone etc. company)pings me weekly, but I imagine like any decent software engineer, the allure of jumping through security clearance hoops, bad software quality, not working remote and getting paid significantly less… is not that exciting.
This is kind of a problem in my view. The US has lots of very good software engineers, but it’s going to be difficult to lure them to even the newer companies in the defence space with the low salaries and office requirements (and for a decent fraction of us, drug testing). I suspect we’ll lose out to the Eastern Europeans in short order who are more “motivated” to put it lightly.

Seems like a place to drop part of my overtime bonus. I'll add it to my trusted list.
It's a promise I gave myself in Feb 22. Whatever I earn outside of my regular pay eaxh month will go to Ukraine. There are many good causes all over the world which deserve attention, but I have chosen this one because it has special significance to me. And I'll continue each month this goes on, doesn't matter how many years it takes. I am in the lucky position that this is financially possible and I know it's not for many others.
The wife is already joking "And how is your true love, Ukraine, today". 

Just leaving this here for any forum member or lurker who wants to help out.
libertyukraine.org

sooner or later there will be negotiations.  I think everyone knows that.  Even knuckleheads like me know it.  
But for now there's nothing for UKR to negotiate.  The barest minimum start for talking would be for RU to return to Feb 22 'borders'.  And even that most obvious requirement is not on the table.  Right now it would be like Hitler asking to negotiate the status of France in late July 1944, just before Cobra.  

Great point. And I like the reference to maneuver warfare that few understand. Keeping the printing presses going in the name of liberty is vital for Ukraine. That requires marketing the voting public and is key to the war effort. POTUS has to wake up and get out of bed and make the case to US tax payers that there is a strategy with an end game positive to the US and our allies while keeping Ukraine whole. Otherwise, it's another embarrassing defeat for the US. In other words, the case has to made that the US can win the war with debased currency and prevent a draw. A draw would be humiliating to me and so many others who follow the conflict given the losses suffered by Ukraine. On this holiday weekend in the US we should raise our glass to Ukraine fighting a nuclear power with two arms tied behind their backs.  

Mick Ryan about the war. Ukraine needs more, Ukraine needs it faster, and letting the Russian's get anything out of this will cost us more in the end. He appears to either be a regular reader of the board, or his sources agree with ours in regards to the tactical/operational details. He does make a point that Western decision making has never adapted to the new reality. Even when we do that right thing we are too  bleeping slow. That is costing Ukraine dearly now, and it will cost the rest of us even more if China actually goes for Taiwan, or similar.

I watched the documentary and I find it really bad. In german I would say "tendenziös" the english meaning would be tendentiously. A lot of known information was not presented. If this was intentional or just bad research I can not say but especially the spiegel has lost a lot of journalistic credibility in recent years and had a  pro russian tendency. Not long ago they did an article where their only source was a russian spy so they published direct russian propaganda and similar events.
They somehow forgot to mention in the documentary that Diana D. is a russian national, that wasn't born in Ukraine/crimea and only got an ukrainian passport in 2001. After she went to crimea she did a lot of pro russian activity. In the documentary she was portrayed as ukrainian and they found it not strange that she appeared in russia after the bombings.
And I don't know why they missed the seismic profiles of the explosions that clearly contradicts their assumption that only a small amount of explosives was used.
Some of the conclussions they draw there are not very logical. I would like to see how they picture the Andromeda doing the work on 4 pipelines in short amount of time on open sea. I work with specialised ships/ shipcrews that work in bomb disposal. The amount of specialised equipment needed to only work in depths of 5-10m with explosives is really high. I asked some of the divers if they think it was possible to do the work needed from Andromeda. They laughted in my face. Most of the divers have navy background......
 

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

To this point, the milieu in which Ukraine takes over would be in the wake of decisive Russian defeats that will be more than just military. The idea of Russkiy Mir will have been punctured definitively. Russia itself will be in a pretty dire economic situation and Moscow will be looking to retrench control at home in a precarious political position. Whoever is running the Kremlin at that point will have a limited amount of bandwidth and have enormous trade reliance on partners (China primarily) who will want to invest in Ukrainian grain, Ukrainian ports, etc. Ukraine will have won militarily, it will have won in the contest of ideologies and it will have a lot to offer Russian allies who will possess leverage.
Does that make a supported insurgency impossible? No. But it certainly isn't anything like the COIN problems we faced in the Middle East or even the ethnic divides of Belfast. Ukraine will have advantages here that most security forces lack and very powerful political, cultural and security motivations to win. I know where I'd put my money if it came to a bet. 

It could go either way and we don't know definitively yet but elements in the German government are clearly pushing the idea that the Russians didn't stop an attack by amateurs with their professionals on site and didn't do the pig obvious thing (go public) that would have stopped the attack in its tracks. Those are extraordinary claims that will require extraordinary proofs...not a recitation of maybes that have all the hallmarks of a false flag operation or look like over worked attempts to explain away the much simpler realities. That's not directed personally at you, to be clear, but at the faction in the German government that seems dead set on complicating Berlin's support for Kyiv. I'm not someone who denigrates German efforts on Ukraine generally but in this case it very much looks like German intelligence that has gotten pretty much everything wrong for a long time is going all in on the bit.

The morale issue is key, and a continuing puzzle.  Were the russians a western army they would have collapsed last year.  They are badly led, badly equipped, and fighting for an immoral and unethical cause.  It cannot even be argued that they are fighting to defend the motherland since the motherland has not been attacked in the slightest until recent weeks.  They are now outgunned.  They are not welcomed in the occupied territories as liberators, rather despised.  They are often asked to endorse or perform atrocities that must turn the stomach of any human.
What keeps them going?  Day after day they continue to attack and take many casualties.  The medical care is minimal, it seems.  And for what?  They lose ground slowly but surely and every day that passes the corrupt nature of their cause becomes more evident.  Surely one of these days they will turn on their superiors, or surrender.
The power of culture and group think has never been more revoltingly on display.  This war needs to be won on a psychological level.  Morale is key.  The russians need to change their minds about this war. 
 

Over at ISW we have some must read key take aways:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023
For example:
“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] 
Hard to argue with that strategy. What a nightmare for the Ukrainian people. How can they rebuild under such a scenario? Build a school - Iranian drone destroys the school. Build a housing complex - Iranian drone destroys the complex. Have a baby - Iranian drone destroys the maternity ward. Regardless of where the lines fall, Ukraine will not be whole until it's under NATO's umbrella and anything thrown at them is shot out of the skies. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/china-now-sells-fewer-goods-to-the-us-than-mexico-or-canada-do/ar-AA1eXT0N?rc=1&ocid=socialshare&cvid=9d99c6d2b63c446881a696f3081e2664&ei=20
Chinese imports to the US down 25% YTD since last year.  That's a big shift, more pressure on the Chinese government, less US dependence on China, and more diversity in the US supply chain. 
 

This will cause economical losses, and rage of vatniks, directed on Putin, who offered them "Kiev for three days", but instead they will get a war at their home. Don't comapre Germans or Soviets of WWII period and modern Russia. Current Russian politicum and nation are a doorway thug. He is strong, fierce, impudent and haughty, but coward. If he pass several painful hits, he retreats. You can recall First Chechen war. West with his "please do not provoke, do not escalate" similar to refery, which force one side to fight only with boxing rules in boxing gloves, when his opponent can fight free even using prohibited technics and knuckles on his fists. Any attempt of one side to respond the enemy, kicking his balls meets a panic reaction "OMG! This is so inhumane! We do not recommend this! What if he become more angry and attack referies and spectators?!" refery and public to this time think they watch a fair sport competition, but indeed is a no-rule fight to the death. 

I wonder if it had not been better to use the new Brigades and go after Belgorod, then collapse into Russia with close to no resistance, but Im sure Washington has put in some stern words regarding that.
 

When first modern western armor became to arrive in Ukraine, I've read some indignant posts of "veterane brigades" representatives, why Bradleys got 47th, which "sit on their asses on Belarusian border, when we barely hold the enemy on donated techniclas"
I wonder, who on Kofman's opinion had to hold frontline, when veteran brigades would be leave Ukraine for training on western vehicles? They gave opportunity to train several other brigades instead. Also what he meant under "veteran brigades"? The same 47th brigade has many brigade level commanders transferred from 93rd brigade. Also, there are problem with many veterans, especialy who fought long time in ATO - they have "old warrior" complex and they have a problems to learn new features. About this wrote Roman Donik, UKR volunteer, who established the center of intensive effective training for infantrimen and squad leaders. He told many of "olds" , arriving to the center believed initially their survival under fire and intuition experience is better than field manual tatic instructions. And not all of them could finish the course and some of them were dropped out. Also German instructors told sometime experienced UKR soldiers don't want to listen them and enter to the disputes (though, after "you should bypass minefield" I not wonder). So, in some aspect will be better to teach a soldier from "zero level civilian", then re-train "old" servicemen. 
 

Civilian and cargo are not equal. Civilian is a passenger cruise liner, for example. Any "civil" cargo ship can potentially carry military or dual purpose cargo. Russian civil freighters for example, were involved in so-called "Syria express" along with military auxiliary vessels and landing ships, carring vehicles, ammunition and fuel.   
Since 21st of July, according to decision of National Security Council     A N Y   cargo ship, heading to Russian ports or to ports on occupied Ukrainian territory can be considered as those, which carry military-related cargo with all risks for them. Also since 20th of July, due to the same decision, Ukraine prohibited any shipping in Kerch strait as potentially dangerous and this statement was shared to all ship-operators. 
Also together with this decisions Zelenskiy made a statement that Ukraine will be more and more to transfer a war on Russian territory. Most of Russian population support the war or indiffrent and think this is "too far" from them.
This is not a border conflict, not a conflict with civilized opponent, where both sides stick to different rules of war and conventions. This is the same existential war on annihilation as WWII. We can't win this war wearing a "white coat" in order not to make nervous different lefist organizations like HRW and some western governments representatives, expectng in horror nukes because of each UKR strike on Russian territory. Of course, we can't do retaliation carpet bombing like on Drezden in 21st century, but we will strike enemy economical infrastructure and significant objects like Moscow towers (by the way only two "broken windows" caused start of exodus from these towers some commercial tenants and appartment leesess - and this is also economical losses for towers owners)
Video of strike on the tanker:
 

I do not find it strange at all.
1. This is probably spontaneous only as far as the bearded fellow in the foreground was concerned. The children are a folk dance assembly and the bearded fellow is almost certainly their director. Obnce he made his decision and told the children to sing, they sung.
2. The children are a folk dance assembly. Singing is what they usually do.
3. During the Russo-Ukrainian War singing the national anthem has been a widespread gesture of patriotism, defiance of the enemy and support of the soldiers and civilian resistance. I am quite certain that by this point, Hungary is perceived by the Ukrainians as an ally of their enemy, and by extension, also an enemy. Turning the children away from the border on spurious grounds (and finding a turniquet would be spurious grounds for refusal to enter) seems therefore an act of harrasment by the enemy to which the Ukrainians show their defiance in their usual way.
 

Can think of several reasons but let’s keep it to moral courage? They were indeed group of children that were going to visit folk music competition(?). Singing would come natural and should be perceived as peaceful protest in worse case if you ask me. How adult men can be provoked by children singing the national anthem I don’t know. Perhaps xenophobia has something to do with that, you tell me.
Note - there is no point taking leaf out of their book and reference to Hungarians on group level. The original post specifically referred to the individuals as border guards of Hungarian nationality, the last part is relevant as to where it happened. No explicit reference to Hungarians as group, thus no need to defend actions of entire nation because of few morons. We all got those regardless of nationality, put me on top of list by all means.
Nothing wrong in singing the national anthem, of any country for that matter. Ok, let’s exclude first verse of the German, e.g. the verse of “Deutschland über alles”, and we good.

Now compare crew losses from Soviet/Russian armor to NATO/Western armor.