danfrodo

Just saw that US says first batch of 200 UKR finished training on M777 artillery. I suppose another thing that could speed collapse is when RU's one big advantage, artillery, starts getting destroyed or has to flee the scene. And then all those NATO guns open up on you. I'd definitely want to flee from that.

well, Russia, being a serial mass murderer is why you can't have nice friends. Enjoy your isolation and poverty.

So TheVulture, you are thinking that the river obstacle will keep UKR from moving further east? Bummer. The site where I got this map says the bridge at Staryy Saltov is blown.

Quick fanboy message to all the folks here that are enjoying this thread but haven't yet tried out Combat Mission Black Sea. You will be absolutely shocked at how accurately the simulation matches what we see in the field from videos. So pick up a copy and get to it! Last night I used precision artillery to knock out troublesome BTRs, while one of my javelin teams was spotted just before firing by a BTR and got chewed up by 30mm fire -- that is a deadly gun. Ambush is easy w modern weapons, advancing is HARD!

So some advances toward Slovyansk by RU. But as pointed out above, the terrain gets increasingly bad beyond Lyman, so would be even harder to keep going there. Meanwhile, there's report of big UKR advances NE of Kharkiv. Any of you have any thoughts on what could be achieved NE/E of kharkiv to unhinge RU forces from Izyum and the Lyman fronts? I am of course hoping for full Romanian collapse (ooops, donetz milita, not romanian collapse -- weird I keep making that mistake......)

This all gets into how utterly F-d Putin is militarily. Probably politically and economically also, though he's certainly hoping to pull a rabbit out of a hat in those areas. He was so confident of an easy, swift coup-type takeover that he simply didn't plan for, or even consider, what happens if his plan fails. Militarily, he can't raise new army w/o threat of widespread political consequences. His current army is completely inadequate and might fold up under UKR pressure within weeks from now. UKR grows stronger while he is being bled white. And he can't reverse that w/o consequences that make things worse. But hey, he's well recognized for being a genius. By another prominent genius. So all is good.

Holy Moly! is that a BOLT ACTION rifle? I thought Dan/CA was kidding at first about WW2 weapons. I guess not.

Golly, this whole thing almost feels like there's some dictator w no real military experience directing everything from far away w/o really understanding the reality of the situation -- strengths, terrain, LOC, etc. Yeah, almost looks like the work of a very desperate amateur.

So when the history is written I hope it says "DPR troops performed in a manner that would've made November 1942 Romanians proud"

really glad I wasn't drinking something when I saw this. I would've spit it all over my monitor. Professional humor.

While most US media is focused on what US does, I saw on an Oryx twitter (via DailyKos) that Poland just sent massive weapons haul: (I don't have twitter so didn't know how to share, but here's cut & paste) - 230+ T-72M(1) MBTs - 40 BMP-1 IFVs - 20+ 2S1 Goździk SPGs - 20+ BM-21 Grad MRLs - WB Electronics FlyEye reconnaissance UAVs - 100 R-73 air-to-air missiles [For Su-27 and MiG-29] 230 T72s -- that is game changing when coupled w all the artillery coming online.

Looks like another score for this forum: the probes were the offensive, not some prelude like pundits were saying. So for Slovyansk, Russia would need to advance through highly restricted terrain, where it doesn't matter how many tanks have because they can't deploy. HIt the front of the column, block road, shell w artillery. Russia could bring up it's artillery and shower the area for days, then try to push thru, but that is very time consuming and only works if the Urkainians abandon the areas completely. The new theater commander has an impossible task.

Yo Aragorn, check your messages. I was worried Putin sent a team after you.

Given the massive, generational economic damage coming Russia's way, the only rational way out is it kill Putin and some of his cronies and blame everything on them, then make big concessions to Ukraine as a peace offering. Of course, there will be a "stab in the back" myth in the Russian fascist circles, but hopefully they won't get to take power. There is no other way forward. If Putin stays in power it's all bad possibilities: grinding war w increasingly powerful Ukraine, severe and never ending economic depression, dramatically increased repression within Russia, possible break-away regions from Russia. When one little bullet could start Russia on the path to recovery. One little bullet.

ah, yes, let me clarify. "Putin had a Plan A and it looked great on paper" -- to Putin.

I agree w this from IMHO, though I would say it differently. Putin had a Plan A and it looked great on paper. The problem is he no plan for if Plan A failed. So, like IMHO says, everything since Plan A failed has been reactive, ad hoc desperation. Just like Barbarossa -- Hitler was so sure it was going to work he didn't need to consider the consequences of what happens if it doesn't work. Meanwhile, around Izyum RU making some small gains at great cost. And they haven't even gotten to the difficult terrain, including bigger towns sitting on the roads, that they'd need to get to anywhere useful.

And what does this actually mean to Russia if they default? Sky falls? What exactly happens??

And who says dreams don't come true? Putin taking over day to day running of the war -- I've been thinking this is probably what's been going on but now have some corroborating evidence. Hopefully as he's busy micromanaging down to the BTG level he's also being given false information about unit strength, UKR strength, etc. Maybe he's like Hitler thinking the soviets are down to their last gasp and are about to collapse -- Steiner's army will cut them off! So Mr Putin, Oh Brilliant Genius Omnipotent Manly Man, keep pushing forward w understrength, tired and demoralized units and losing them at the rate of ~company or more per day. And burn up all your artillery supplies while you are at it.

that's what I like to hear! This smells of collapse and mutiny. More, please. The orcs of mordor fighting w the uruk hai. SamWise and the forces of good have an opening here, I hope. and ELVIS: congrats on your fancy new eagle friend, $25M a year but quite a talent.

I suppose it all comes down to whether one wishes to drive around a hot area in a brightly colored kia mini SUV or an M113. I would take the M113. It's obsolete against BMP, BTR, etc, but why wouldn't I want it as a battle taxi if they only other choice is a civilian vehicle?

so you are saying I should still dust off my dancing shoes? Excellent My big concern is that the weapons we're sending will be too late. Not too late in the sense that Ukraine loses the war, but too late to help them smash the current offensive. Any land they lose now they might have to lose soldiers getting it back later. I much prefer military history to military real-time. This is stressful, we are so in the dark as to where this is all going to end up. And of course there's Ukrainians dying every day, lives destroyed, children displaced, so the stress for them is infinite.

well, hard to say. But this is one area where the two political parties seem to have been working well together so far. Other than the pro-Putin members of congress it seems like it will be OK, but those are a small minority -- meaning Putin needs to spend more money on lobbying I guess.

So AKD, you think this is information is false? Dang it.

GLORY GLORY HALELUJIAH ALLAH AKBAR AND THANKS TO EVERY GOD I CAN THINK OF!!!!!! It's actually in the battle? -- this is great news!!! RA biggest advantage is artillery right now. Can't wait to see drone footage of RA arty positions getting smashed miles behind the lines, thinking they are dishing it out w/o any fear of counter battery. Yeah, I will be dancing when I see that. Now they'll have to fire & displace, which should dramatically reduce the firing rate per day overall. And when they are destroyed it reduces it even more

I really like the height of the vehicle for allowing an ATGM soldier standing on the roof to be able to fire from deep hull down or even behind a low building. Very glad to see these guys not driving around in hyundais.