danfrodo
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Posts
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Days Won
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Posts posted by danfrodo
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2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:
Perhaps it was posted before. Russian attack on position of 58th Brigade. Tense clip.
Tense clip indeed. Glad to see RU losing forces, kinda sorry for those involved that were kidnapped (conscripted) and wanted no part in this. Not sorry for any volunteers.
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2 minutes ago, sburke said:
let it go, just not worth it. Clearly he doesn't comprehend what climate change really means. You can't argue with someone that takes pride in their ignorance.... and it is just going waaaaaayyyyy off topic
Heard, Chef
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deleted, the above is so awful just need to walk away
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33 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:
Just what they need Climate Change Zealots in the Ukraine.
Maybe these young people are climate change zealots because they have to live with the catastrophe that our generation chose to mock & ignore. Did you see the temperature data from this summer? This september? -- Off the f--ing charts. Things are getting bad much, much faster than projected a decade ago.
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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
You misunderstood our dear LLF. Which is to say China is not cheering Russia to win the war (this might not be in China's best interests), but is probably quite thrilled to have Russian depopulate the Asiatic provinces by having the most capable of fighting killed in Ukraine. Not only does this give China more room to grow, but it also means there's fewer people inclined to resist because they are already dead.
Ah, I see. I think this is unrealistic because it would take huge casualties to 'depopulate' the region. But I can see where China is happy to see Putin push these regions to revolt over the ongoing kidnapping & murder of these people ( by kidnapping & murder I mean, of course, RU conscription).
8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:Regardless, if this war freezes with Ukraine holding a significant footing on the left bank of the Dnepr it will be a big problem for Russia long term.
Great point. I actually feel a little happier thinking of it that way.
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River crossing hopium here today. I have become rather skeptical of any UKR offensive turning into any kind of operational gain, but I still have some hope. Is RU getting weaker? Seems so, especially as they are burning up forces for nothing. But this could also mean they have much more men and material than we think they do. I am hoping that the current RU offensives are just political stupidity and really are weakening an already crumbling military machine. I suppose Putler believes that with winter coming he'll not be under any real threat of UKR breakout, so why not try to grab some land in anticipation of freezing the conflict.
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
The cannon fodder is disproportionally coming from the Asiatic parts of Russia. So if there's no people there, and things go south in Moscow, guess who would likely benefit? China. Either through new dependent semi-autonomous states or through direct acquisition.
Steve
I think that's my point. China should be wanting Putin to fail, badly, very badly, though maybe they are best pretending in public this is not the case. But the esteemed LLF was saying China wanted Putin to win and have more land, which I didn't understand.
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13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
And China is cheering their best buddy Vlad on. The Middle Kingdom is only too happy to repopulate all those hinterlands, which they would've done in the Ming dynasty had they known it contained useful stuff.
Not sure I understand this. If Vlad wins, what hinterlands are available? If Vlad loses, there could be RU breakup and lots of hinterlands available.
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17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Hm, weird. The end piece looks knotted and tied...why do that with copper? Some sort of artistic thing? I am no electrician but I would have no idea what a copper strap like that would be for then.
Militarily copper would be a terrible idea - expensive as hell, heavy and thermally shiny. Back to this:
Copper is expensive. Doing this w copper would be kinda insane at the dugout/trench level.
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I'll file this under 'hopium'. Feller here talks about pontoon bridge possibilities at Krynky. We'll see. In my mind, kinda pointless to do this over many weeks as RU will simply plant a bunch of mines and put some schmucks in holes, supported by some arty & drones, and nothing will happen. If one were to do something like this I would think it would need to happen fast enough that the enemy can't spend weeks countering it with cheap defenses.
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43 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:
Thanks!! I really thought a few of those did come out pretty good!
Ok then, any of you now want a go at a PBEM? @Vacillator @danfrodo @FlammenwerferX @chuckdyke??
Ha! The gauntlet has been thrown. And remember this thread is all encompassing so it can be any theater.
I mean, me and @Fizou always have 3 different battles going at any time (currently CMBN, CMRT, CMFB), I'm playtesting a campaign for Mr. X and always starting campaigns or saves or new solo battles against the AI so why not take on another??
Day job killing me, you'd be waiting forever, sorry. But you at least would get an easy victory!
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9 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:
Victory! My battle with @FlammenwerferX is over. After much struggle and brutal fighting my troops have won the victory taking all but one final VP location! My opponent put up a fierce defense as usual but my armor and mechanized troops proved to be the difference.
Final photos from the frontlines...
I just love the battle damaged building on this one.
The panzergrenadiers were integral to my victory.
My armor and recon sit atop the last VP I was able to seize.
My infantry rests after taking a farm overlooking the stream crossing and bridge.
Wow, you've outdone yourself with this pics, thanks for sharing.
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Great points above JonS & Tenses: shell production deficit is not the whole picture.
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11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
This is really just an academic cop-out -“F#ck knows, so let’s call it ‘intermediate’ and dump the solution forward”
Some fundamentals of warfare have shifted. Mass manoeuvre on offence is clearly broken as we knew it. Establishing conditions to re-start it remain out of reach. Neither side has been able to project and sustain mass precision, or at least the levels required to break deadlock. I am not convinced that there will be a technological or doctrinal solution by 2025.
I think we are going to start seeing difficult conversations. Ukraine will likely need to dig in and adopt small power strategies of continuing to bleed the RA. At some point Russia will realize this is a waste of time and effort, probably need a few more disasters to drive that point home.
Defensive primacy might be back (for now). Denial primacy definitely is happening. Themes of Denial, Corrosion, projected friction, precision, smart mass, Illumination, Hyper-connectivity, dispersion, deception and attrition seem to really dominate. A battlefield of negative decisions - I can’t have positive decisions but neither can you.
The military problem may be unsolvable. Over to the political side.
Perhaps instead of focusing on things that evidence-based and seem to be very true you could spend a little more of your time telling me things that make me feel good instead? What is it with you anyway?
I do keep hoping that RU gets weak enough that UKR can make some solid gains, somewhere. I don't actually think this is likely, unfortunately. Seems RU can lay mines faster than UKR can get through them.
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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
An article in the NYT about a problem with the reliance upon artillery -> physiological damage to the bodies of the gun crews:
For those without the ability to read this article, the short of it is US gun crews in Syria fired massive numbers of shells (7000+) in a fairly short period of time. The evidence of crews suffering from mental conditions was enough to prompt the USMC to do a study. It concluded that they were suffering TBI and other types of physical trauma. The report (which I've only skimmed) is publicly available:
Seeing pictures of the M777s dug into bermed pits makes me think that's part of the problem right there. The last thing you want to do with harmful shock waves is inhibit their energy from going elsewhere.
Steve
since the wave strength will reduce as the radius^2, I wonder if just have the crew move 5-10 meters away for each shot would significantly help. Can they fire by pulling a rope?
NYT also had article today ( I only saw headline) that UKR wants to expand across Dneiper (Dnipro?) to push RU artillery back from easily shelling Kherson city.
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58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Not directly about Ukraine, but since we talk about Chechnya a lot: younger son of Kadyrov, Adam (mentioned before) reportedly took some unspecified, but high position among senior security apparatus of his father.
Younger fatty (yes, I am mean- kid is already sadistic at 15 years old) Adam will take security and likely military forces; he appears more and more often with his father. Nominally older but more timid Akhmet will likely succeed overall governance and civil administration. Of 3rd, middle Zelimkhan (still older than Adam) little is known. It looks like projected system in case of father's death is something of a family business with carefully limited boundries, likely guarded by closest allies of the family. Imagine succesfull Italian Pizza company but with guns.
For past 2 years we have occassion to watch how conditions are created for future succession in totalitarian regime. Note how Kadyrov is actually more prudent than Putin...despite relatively young age, he knows he can pass away and try to prepare his small kingdom for it.
I suspect Putin doesn't care about the world after himself outside of him being remembered as some great conquerer. Succession plans means danger for himself. I also suspect he's like a character from the book All the Light We Cannot See, or from Raiders of Lost Ark, where he's obsessed w finding ways to unnaturally extend his heinous life.
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2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:
Partisans.
Great picture, ChuckDyke. You should win a pulitzer for this one.
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37 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:
We are now in the waning moments, with under 10 minutes left in our battle. Time has now become my enemy as I don't think I will be able to make it to the final VP, however, I have captured all but two and another is still within my grasp.
Here my Puma advances to the heavy bridge VP location and clears out the remaining Soviet infantry guarding the bridge. The two T-34s were previously knocked out by my advancing Panthers.
Advance, advance, advance!
In the final 30 minutes, I used my Panzergrenadiers on their halftracks to conduct two quick infantry assault and grabs to secure two of the required VPs. @George MC, you would appreciate these assaults. Under cover of armor and as much suppressing fire as possible I rushed two platoons right up onto the Soviet VPs with MGs manned and blazing. My troops dismounted and immediately started advancing and putting more fire on the defenders who succumbed to the incredible and sudden pressure of my assault! My casualties were far lower than if I had tried to advance on the position through my enemies clear fields of fire.
Success! The enemy dead and wounded mark their defensive positions and once we closed on them from multiple angles with the halftracks speed and armor support, they fell brutally quick.
daaaaaaaaaaaang! I love seeing an armor-infantry assault that succeeds like that. I've never had one of course, but I am sure it's a great feeling.
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18 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic, I'd say I'm advocating for sober and serious preparation.
Good points, Homo_Ferricus. On you last sentence, I am wondering what you are meaning. Serious preparation for Putin doing more mischief? Or mental preparation that the conflict might actually be frozen and, like you say, this is what history locks in (Putin takes landbridge)?
I am worried that Putin might get the frozen outcome he wants. But I am not ready to concede that UKR won't get the landbridge back. We just don't know.
Certainly doesn't look good for UKR right now, at end of campaign season that yielded huge RU loses everywhere except territory, and UKR looking like it has no means to get the territory back. Landbridge is only ~100km wide and UKR only managed ~15km of that. Not enough to cut Tokmak, not enough to do much of anything.
My next rose-colored hope is that RU burns through so much men & material in these attacks that UKR can achieve something meaningful over the winter. (and yes, is rose-colored)
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29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
UKR troops in Krynky, left bank of Dnipro
And how they reach left bank. Small river, which soldiers crossed is Konka.
Meanwhile UKR troops on left bank have strong support not only with artillery, but also FPV drones of "Magyar birds". Here they destroyed three BTR-82A
Geoconfirmed Russian vehicles, destroyed on left bank in recent days
Wow, once again Haiduk bringing some very very interesting news.
The video of the burning RU column, was that ambushed? I hear a lot of small arms so it doesn't seem like just artillery strike. Losing basically an entire RU company is some much needed good news.
And looks like some movement west of Robotyne. Do you think this is some new push by UKR forces? Or just map adjustment after UKR took a couple fields?
And is Kherson getting to be something other than a nuisance raid? So hard to say but certainly getting some RU resources destroyed in that area.
And what are your thoughts on Andiivka? UKR is holding but RU just keeps throwing men into the cauldron. That salient for UKR could get into trouble if RU advances much more.
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That's was a really good one to see Haiduk. First ones & then others hit by ATGMs or tank shells, it looks like
3 hours ago, dan/california said:Whatever the Russian excuse for a strategy is, it certainly isn't based on any military competence whatsoever.
This is something that's really been bothering me relative to the beliefs I have. If RU is running short of men & armor & shells, then spending lots of resources in Andiivka should allow UKR to make progress somewhere. but we just don't see any progress other than attrition. I would think that RU going forward at least opens up opportunity to attack the flanks somewhere, especially since UKR should be facing somewhat exhausted units that are on new terrain and not properly dug in & mined.
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12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
He told the level of irrecoverable losses in Shtorm Z companies can be 40-70 % after each attack.
good lord, how can they sustain these losses? Oh, wait, now I sound like German General Staff in 1941. Yikes.
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15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Now turn to Kherson direction
More messages that Krynky village now under full UKR control, but this is unverified yet and likely are rumors.
Though even to OSINT data UKR troops expanded own bridgheads:
Here is Krynky control expanding
... And here is bridgehead expanding near railway bridge in area of Pishchanivka
Russians despite all their bravura claims they will clear left bank soon also recognize UKR troops presense in central part of Krynky.
Russians say it's became betetr with ammunition for artillery on Kherson direction and they have a hope for proper command of new-appointed Teplinskiy, but in other TG Russians discuss about problems with elimination of UKR bridgehead:
Our aviation - if they hit target with one of 10 bombs - that is good enough, but mostly they plow fields with bombs. Our artillery also 1 to 8-9. And after artillery hit at last tarhet with one shell, they stop fire. They have ammo limit of 13 shells for a day, maximum 18. From these shells 8 in fields somewhere near the target, if one at last hit tree-plant, our infantry apploud. So, comrads this is piztets, full pizdets.
For one our Mavic they have full platoon of own Mavics. We hadn't Mavics with thermals, but they have. We have [in army] cheap FPV drones for 30000 Ru (approx. 320$), but they can lift a pack of cigarettes [I think they exaggregate] and we haven't [in our units here] even them, so we buy working variants for 70-80000 RU [from volunteers]. Our generals thought kamikadze drones for 30000 Ru will be effective. Lough. When this blyadstvo will end in our MoD?
Haiduk, thanks for the great posts today. Now, once again, I am on the "maybe UKR will cross the river in real strength to make a real difference" thing again, even though I've fallen for this a dozen times now. Each time disappointed yet I still hope that this one is different.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Really really wanting this to be true, and significant. Now I'll be checking here every 15 minutes all day hoping for confirmation.