Jump to content

danfrodo

Members
  • Posts

    3,349
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    13

Posts posted by danfrodo

  1. holy moly, huge body count from UKR strike on a RU training site.  ~100 bodies.  Plus bradley pounding MTLB & russian armor getting mauled, always a pick-me-up.  Plus some further tragedy for UKR people in the form of lost young heroes & other stuff.  

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/5/1/2238296/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-ATACMS-destroys-Russian-training-site?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

     

  2. Thanks for the info @ThathumanHayden and @Halmbarte    But y'all are making me sad.  I want to destroy T64s, by the dozens.  Nothing worse than rounds bouncing off a T64.  A sherman or T34 vs panther frontal armor I am used to bouncing shells, but in the cold war I really want to win.   Once the module arrives I am sure I will welcome the challenge.  I suppose I should think of how I handle shermans, where I need to be creative if I'm gonna win against superior armor.  

    I wonder if we'll get a brit module someday with the challenger 1s?  Will those shred T64s?

     

  3. 1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

    I assume we are talking about this:

    image.thumb.png.52089edd32a2219af5ea3a0d88759787.png

    Gotta be honest, I see a lot of potential dangerous salients forming up, which was how the Germans made life miserable for the Soviets.  The RA lacks the logistics to really support a major drive unless conditions have changed there.  I get the concerns but until the RA can take a major operational objective - which based on this map looks like Povrovsk - we have death by a thousand nibbles.

    However, I do share the concern that the UA is fully capable of collapse as well.  If that happens things could shift quickly, albeit likely slower than in Fall ‘22 re: Russian logistics.  We need a Deep Battle here to get corrosive warfare happening again.  My sense is that this war has recently shifted to front edge attrition which is not what we want.  This plays to Russian strengths.  The key Russian weakness is systems-fragility and for that we need deep deliberate corrosive warfare approaches.

    We expect UKR to exploit these vulnerable salients, and sometimes they do make attacks on them.  But in general we don't see UKR choosing to do this in any meaningful way.  These are new, unfortified flanks, yet UKR hasn't the will or strength to contest them as strongly as one might hope.  

    Is this due to lack of artillery (thanks to the US delays)?  Is it RU FPVs/arty making cutting those flanks too costly?  Is UKR simply too weak or too casualty averse?  Is it UKR just wanting to play the delay/attrit card and is willing to lose the territory?  Is UKR building up for something else?   

    Every time I see these salients I hope to see it cut off and right now it's just not happening, for whatever reason.

  4. 5 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

    @FlammenwerferX's luckiest artillery shot ever.  Somehow this one landed right on the deck killing my entire SMG HQ riding on the tank in addition to KO'ing the tank and killing the entire crew as well.  

    Ugggh.

    1710.png

    That's a painful one for sure!  Lose the tank, lose the men, lose your well laid plans, all w one shell.  Or was it an FPV drone? -- awfully precise for artillery.  Thanks for sharing, as always.

  5. 4 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

    If trump were to become president again, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point we have a thread talking about how hot Europe is going to get - because the MAGA regime will shift to cold war against 'satanic woke europe', withdraw from NATO, and threaten to INVADE Ukraine and help our Russian allies in Christendom

    I think first we'd want to invade Canada & dethrone the woke socialists in Ottawa.   "First we take Hull, then we take Berlin!" as the old song goes.  

  6. Much thanks to @The_Capt for the excellent analysis over last few pages.  So yer sayin' there's a chance UKR to actually go on the offensive someday......  

    I think recruiting in UKR might go better if there's a clear line to offensive action.  Easier to get folks to sign up for offense & victory than for getting ground down in a trench for weeks at a time doing holding actions.  I'm hoping there's a big chunk of UKR army actually training & preparing for offensive action, I suppose in 2025?  Or if things go right maybe later in 2024.  As TheCapt said (paraphrase), keep shaping and be ready for offensive action when there's an opportunity.  

     

  7. 1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

    Ok, I don’t intend to get into or start an off topic political discussion, but I have to respond to this. Unfortunately, we in the U.S. are living in a blatantly partisan political environment. The Democratic Party are just as partisan as the Republican Party, and will pull the same crap. They are mostly more concerned about getting a leg-up over, and embarrassing the other party than doing the “right thing” for the American people and its allies. The two extremes of the parties have driven out all of the “old moderates.” Yes, the Republicans have their MTGs, but the Democrats have their AOCs. Both are equally destructive to the process.

    I keep hearing about how disruptive Republican Mitch McGovern was as the Senate Majority Leader, but everyone seems to forget about Democrat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who refused to allow a single proposed bill that was proposed or passed by a Republican House, to go to the Senate floor for a vote.

    I’m really sick and tired of the extremely partisan comments and camouflaged attacks that are constantly being posted by Liberals and Conservatives on this supposedly neutral Forum Thread. How about everyone who is doing it, stop and consider whether whether or not the Left and Right Wing garbage they are Oh, is appropriate to this thread.

    your attempt to play the both-siderism game is pathetic and shows an incredible amount of ignorance, both in historic and in current events.  What Gingerich did was completely unprecedented.  What McConnell did was completely unprecedented.  And Trump is off the charts for breaking both norms and laws.  ANd where on the left are the insane ones that are wielding power?   Where's the dem Matt Gaetz?  MTGreene?  American democracy is on the brink and it is due to one side and one side only.  Guess what --  Biden won't attempt to throw the country into a civil war to unlawfully try to cling to power.  Trump's been doing that for last 4 years, including a full on mob-coup attempt that left people dead.  So just WTF are you even talking about?  Clearly you've been watching Hannity or some other bull**** monger and now you are parroting their bulls--t.

    So stop watching Fox & newsmax.  It makes you look like a damn fool.

    Oh, and please respond by telling me how it's the dems fault the GOP held up UKR aid for 3 months.  Dems aint the ones on Putin's payroll.  

     

  8. Some good news, some less good, but mostly good in this installment.  More patriot systems probably will be entering the pipeline.  Maybe big US aid on the way?  Hopefully.  RU continues to lose a lot of radar, hopefully one day we'll find F16s & lots of missiles/drones running through those AD holes.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/18/2235874/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-More-Patriots-may-be-on-the-way-for-Ukraine?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

  9. 13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    A friend of mine, smart and truly a good person, believes that the only way to fix the REAL problems with our government (and for sure the list of REAL problems is very lengthy) is to "tear it all down".  This is why he supports Trump.  What he doesn't realize is that is equivalent to someone in debt and trying to raise a family advocating demolishing their home, with everything still in side, because the toilette backs up every so often.  He really doesn't understand the ramifications of what he's advocating for. 

    Steve

    well, one solution for 'house has rats' is to burn the house down.  Easy and mindless.  But a smarter, less lazy person might actually choose to do the work of actually removing the f-ing rats.

  10. 3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Recently Rep Greene has been babbling the "Ukraine is Nazi" Kremlin talking point lately in her crazed attempt to help out Putin.  She got her butt handed to her in Congressional testimony:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4601264-moskowitz-confronts-greene-on-ukraine-nazi-remarks/

    And a Dem was kind enough to point out that Greene has openly embraced white supremacy (aka American Nazism):

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4601568-frost-condemns-greene-for-disavowing-white-supremacists-damn-hypocrisy/

    It's always entertaining to watch real Nazis say we shouldn't fund fake Nazis in their fight against real Nazis.

    Steve

    ah yes, the most powerful kingmaker in the GOP, showing her brilliant colors again.

    Meanwhile, stuff happening in the war.  Airfield hit in Crimea.  Tank has much bigger instantaneous bavovna than one would expect.  And flooding in RU, where residents go online to chastise Putin for the lack of sufficient response & aid -- that'll go well for them.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/17/2235660/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-launches-devastating-attack-on-Crimean-airfield?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

     

  11. 4 hours ago, poesel said:

    no one is using solar panels instead of fences in Germany. But some people have installed solar panel as(!) fences. That did occur, but is very rare

    Vertically oriented solar panels are a thing, I just saw a whole video about it (w manufacturers/installers/users being interviewed).  They are not installed as fences, but can double as fences.  Installing solar panels as fences would be really stupid & expensive, unless these are old, worn out ones that don't work anymore.

    edit: By the way, california generated enough renewable energy to provide 100% of grid demand for for 30 of last 38 days.  That's california, the 6th largest economy on earth.  

  12. I hereby swear that if M Johnson actually allows for big aid package to Ukraine that I will not call him any more bad names.  Until the next UKR aid package he blocks.  UKR needs this so badly.  I wonder how long before US 155mm & patriot ordnance is actually on site at the front?

     

  13. Oh, are we gay bashing?  Definitely the root of all our problems!  I thought it was jews but the insightful & informative views here have convinced me it's actually the gays.  Or is it the muslims?  I can't keep up on who is currently destroying western culture/society so thanks for all this information on things that really matter.  Why, in the US 20 years ago we were told how gay marriage would destroy america, and it certainly has!  

  14. 31 minutes ago, White2Golf said:

    Appreciate the comments.   Lurk Mode: Re-engaged.

    I didn't read it, so I'll go ahead and comment 🤪

    Let's say UKR did cut off and destroy a lot of RU forces.  We know now that Putin is impervious to losses -- he just throws more at the problem, though of course quality in men/equip/training going down continually w this approach.  UKR was not capable of a big offensive operations, so wishing they had done so seems kinda silly.  They won thru some very good active-defensive actions against an overextended enemy.  

  15. 3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    The attacks on the oil/gas industry are not yet having a noticeable impact on the war, but they are a great thing to concentrate on.  There are a limited number of targets, they don't move, due to size and vertical nature they are easy to hit, they are insanely expensive to repair, some components are difficult for Russia to replace, and there's only so many qualified construction crews and engineers to fix things at any given time.

    And best of all, oil/gas facilities burn.  So the damage can orders of magnitude greater than the explosive power in the drones.

  16. 27 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

     

    Once again I feel like a member of the german general staff, circa 1941-42.  "look at these losses, they can't possibly sustain.....".   Yet now, like then, somehow they are still shelling UKR positions, every day all day.  Be nice if we could UKR some more shells & tubes for firing back.....

     

  17. I actually have a positive suggestion:  @sfhand -- how about you start a new thread, something like "open debate on global geopolitics"?  

    And meanwhile, good video of the failed RU attack that cost them 20 armored vehicles -- mostly to ATGMs it looks like  -- apologies if this one was already posted. And other RU stuff blowing up.  And sadly, an RU advance to Chasiv Yar, I think it's called.  Dang it.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/1/2232830/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-downs-an-expensive-new-Russian-drone?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

     

  18. 2 hours ago, sfhand said:

    So, to be clear, you are saying that disagreeing on geopolitics is a bannable offense here now? Well I'm not gonna recant but I am not trying to offend your geopolitical sensibilities. By the way, I'm not conspiring with anyone. I feel like I've been thrown back into the 1950s.

    This is a Ukraine war forum, not "open mic night for arrogant narcissists".  Your spiel is so classic, you know lots of 'facts', some actually true, but mostly not.  So you strut like a f--ing rooster "what about article X of broken treaty Y!".  Yeah, what about it?  What is actually happening is mass murder, mass destruction, nuclear extortion and a general threat to world peace the the world economy.  How does minsk treaty language matter when one party physically invaded the other and is actively killing its people and trying to enslave the entire nation?  

    But I guess you're right, we need to start seeing things from Putin's point of view, he was very oppressed and had no choice but to fight back.  I am sure we could all develop  a more balanced view by sympathizing with mass murderers more often.  More 'what abouts' and less paying attention to the horrific reality of Putin's choices, day after day, is what's in order -- thanks Dude, I am feeling so much more enlightened.

  19. 5 minutes ago, photon said:

    Here's my take from reading the thread and a bunch of OSINT:

    This is one where I think it's meaningful to separate "Russia winning" from "Putin's regime winning". I'd suggest that on day 1 of the war, those two were in alignment: Russia wins by absorbing a large neighboring state into its sphere of influence with only targeted bloodshed (at the ruling elite). Putin's regime wins by propping up a vision of pan-Russian nationalism and empire building that cements Putin as Czar.

    On day today of the war, those visions of victory are no longer in alignment. Russia has lost - they will not absorb Ukraine into their sphere of influence with only targeted bloodshed, and have actively reinforced the global ruleset by pushing Finland and Sweden into NATO and reawakening Europe to the necessity of self-defensive capability. They've also offered the west a huge opportunity to figure out what fighting a 21st century peer war looks like.

    For Putin's regime, victory looks like staying in power. And he's been far more successful at that than we collectively predicted. Even Prigozhin's coup-like thing proved a manageable threat (for reasons that are unclear to me). Somehow recon-by-meat-assault isn't provoking civil unrest, &c. &c. So that one's not a loss for Putin yet. Economy still appears to be sort of functioning? Though it's hard to see how he can keep it that way indefinitely?

    For Ukraine, the day 1 objective was "remain an independent and free society". That still appears to be their objective, and they're doing a yeoman's job of that. Jury's still out, though, on what the end state looks like.

    Excellent post, Photon.  Succinct & clear & concise and well reasoned.  Just using words like 'win' and 'lose' are too simple for what's going on at this point.

×
×
  • Create New...