danfrodo

So overall lots of good news for UKR. More Caesars. More T-72s. And maybe long range missiles. I get that Kherson is the focus right now, but I wonder how long they want Kharkiv to be in howitzer range. Maybe that will be hot sometime soon also.

Either those fellers can't spell or they are talking funny. who is it and what did they say?

I am picturing discussions going on right now w UKR staff -- do we blow the bridge now? Do we let them know we can blow the bridge so they leave (demonstrated today)? Do we entice them to reinforce then blow the bridge? I am for enticing them to reinforce then blowing the bridge, but if they aren't reinforcing I'd go ahead an destroy it. Hopefully Putin will do the usual dictator thing and order 'not one step back' and send lots of nice hardware into Kherson, along w some high ranking officers. It will be hard to reconcile "everything going according to plan" with "Kherson is lost w hundreds captured along w all their equipment and supplies". Assuming the public ever actually finds out.

Maybe the Kherson forces would be less cut off than those in Mariupol, but it would be a much greater number of troops needing food and ammo & fuel and would be in hostile territory (partisans, infiltration teams). So my bet is on collapse pretty quickly if the two routes over the big river are cut. Local unit collapse, here & there, end of first week. Full Kherson-ingrad within a month. So please, Putler, put everything you've got into that kessel.

Dude, you forgot the airfields. Gotta hit those also. Then maybe offensive actions can have more success. Seems arty & air is the big RU advantage stopping UKR advances. And I kinda don't want to drop the bridges yet. If Herr Putler is gonna feed more men & gear into the kessel, let him!! Then drop the bridges. If they have moved their main supply dumps on the crimea side of the river (due to HIMARS, MLRS) then. once cut, the forces on the Kherson side will run out of resources very quickly. Kherson-ingrad. That's the kind of epic, unmitigated disaster that could bring down Putin.

what consequences could Germany apply? Send more weapons to Ukraine? In the short term there will be a nasty shock to energy market and prices, which Putin hopes will turn public opinion his way. In the longer term, Germany and EU will find different oil suppliers and speed up alternative energy assets. But in the short term Putin loses some money but causes big headaches to allies of Ukraine.

and this all gets back to whether RU forces would be cut off if the bridge & dam were sufficiently interdicted. I would love to see a nice reverse-stalingrad situation. It would be especially fun to watch how RU state TV spins it. This whole thing smells like a trap being set by UKR. Putin believes he must, politically, keep Kherson. And that makes him vulnerable to manipulation and defeat.

yeah, german troops laughing at antiquated Stuart tank 37mm gun. Then it fires canister. No more laughing.

Well said, Dan/CA. But is Kherson such a big propaganda loss for Putler that he decides it must be held at all costs? It could be a potential disaster for RU, both in lost forces and in propaganda. I like that UKR has very low risk in fighting on this front while RU has great risk of taking massive losses. If RU counterattacks UKR can simply fall back locally and there's no operational objectives at risk. While for RU, they are in constant danger of having a huge portion of their forces being completely cut off and losing a region that Der Putler has already boasted will be a new breakaway republic/puppet state.. I am starting to see why UKR is concentrating their current efforts there. Low risk, high reward. And maybe has the nice benefit of getting RU to shift even more forces into a trap.

Finally, some good news on the ground. I am hoping for some RU units to break somewhere along this front. It wouldn't be some huge armored thrust I suppose, but maybe some nice ground gained and some panic by Putin. A panicky Putin might make some less than optimum military choices.

Have you already done the cold war books by Ben MacIntyre? These two are excellent, especially the first one below. Soviet guy who spied for the west. https://smile.amazon.com/Spy-Traitor-Greatest-Espionage-Story-ebook/dp/B0782X9PFP/ref=sr_1_2?crid=33R6O8L0SML43&keywords=ben+macintyre+books&qid=1658093855&s=digital-text&sprefix=macintyre%2Cdigital-text%2C142&sr=1-2 Woman was soviet spy during war and afterwards. https://smile.amazon.com/Agent-Sonya-Moscows-Daring-Wartime-ebook/dp/B085BWLNR2/ref=sr_1_5?crid=33R6O8L0SML43&keywords=ben+macintyre+books&qid=1658093902&s=digital-text&sprefix=macintyre%2Cdigital-text%2C142&sr=1-5

I can't even say the original post was wrong, to be wrong one has to have some kind of actual statement, some supposition, that is false, and this didn't rise to that level. Like RU propaganda. It's doesn't make enough sense to even be wrong.

Oh, I'm a lemming too, so not judging. I almost got swept up in it.

why is this thread bothering with this? Someone says something nonsensical and dragged us over a cliff. Anyone got any Ukraine updates? Seems like the front is in a holding pattern w lots of arty and not much else. RU will probably continue its WW1 pulverize and inch forward strategy. UKR seems to be waiting for something. Maybe they just don't have enough of the new units ready w proper training & gear?

well, now that we are done w whatever the F all that was.... Seems nothing new out of Kerson region other than UKR hitting some more ammo dumps. I still wonder whether this is will be a feint offensive or the real deal. RU seems to be treating it seriously enough, which may be the whole point. With the Slovyansk front now straightened, UKR arty can use its longer reach to punch RU assets. In the salient UKR had to put arty in relative danger due to the 3-sided RU front. RU has satellites, so I suppose it'd be impossible for UKR to really mass troops w/o RU knowing it. So how does one pull off an offensive other than methods championed earlier by Steve -- infiltrate, disrupt, then strike w small armored teams, consolidate, repeat.

I'll throw my theory into the ring on why Putin pulled the trigger: because he was convinced his plan would work. If the assassinations/treason weren't completely successful, he'd have the hostemel airport and would be flying in reinforcements. Those troops would take the stunned capital ~day 2. Then by day 3 the armored column would arrive so the light troops would only have to hold for a day or so. Putin believed his plan was failsafe because he had multiple layers of increasing force, meaning he didn't need the plan to be perfect to work. I think Putin really thought his plan simply couldn't fail because he believed it was so very robust, so he chose to go -- what's the risk when you can't conceivably fail?

yeah, I agree w SBurke. Too many folks still think of Putin's plan as an invasion cake with coup icing. It's a coup cake with invasion icing. Meaning the military invasion was the icing on the cake. The Ukrainian command and control people were supposed to all be dead on day one, with puppet immediately going on television & radio to tell everyone it was already over, while local bribed traitors (mayors, etc) kept local order. Then Putin does victory dance by day 3, western powers unable to respond because it's a fait accompli.

good point. You are probably right -- but why then does EU want the railway opened? If it's not for some kind of leverage then why?

this just made me realize that the Kaliningrad supply route is a nice bargaining chip for Europe. Putin wants to cut gas supplies? OK, Kaliningrad railway is blocked. Good arrow to have in the quiver.

Ah, some professional-grade humor from Aragorn. Nicely done!

on Germany and other RU fuel consumers, it's important to remember that Putin can only use this lever for so long. He can exert heavy pressure in the short term, but only at high cost to his own coffers. And in the longer term these countries will find other resources, even if at higher price due to transport costs (getting via the pipeline was relatively cheap).

There would be so much poetic justice if Putin orders big buildup in Kherson, only to have it completely cut off. We would all be laughing at his stupidity for decades to come. So, y'all: could HIMARS actually take out the big bridge? What about that other crossing -- is it a dam? Can UKR actually cut off the Kherson bridgehead?

gunfire & explosions heard in Melitopol?? what is that? Partisan activity? That's a long way from the front. So RU sounds like it's going to send more into Kherson. I guess Putin doesn't want the bad PR from losing the north side of the river. But can he really hold it? If UKR drops the bridge all the troops & gear there is trapped, what a coup for UKR -- talk about bad PR! Seems like the kind of decision Putin would make, classic dictator running the war. I'd leave that potentially untenable region in order to hold the rest of the territory I've stolen.

back on the main subject: any news from Kherson front today???

Whatever happens w the war, it's clear that Europe must be free of dependence on RU resources. That will take time & pain and hopefully voters won't be so stupid as to think there's some magic, simple answer to this complex problem and vote in clowns. This is a pivot point that is a terrible challenge but also an opportunity. Some sectors will continue to need fossil fuels, some things can be transitioned away over time to other resources, but many can't. Fools (yeah, that's me included) who hoped that mutually dependent trade would mostly tame Putin have learned our lesson. And while I am reviling dependence on evil Putin, I suppose there's those nasty Saudis that deserve mention. Weaning off fossil fuels is not just for lefty tree huggers -- it's a military strategic imperative. We'll need fossil fuel still, but we certainly don't need to use it for nearly as much as we do now.