danfrodo

your father was a hipster??

OK folks, what the heck is going on here? Trying to tie down RU forces? Opportunistic attacks to attrit RU forces at "low" cost? I believe there's just one working crossing point over the river at this time? Seems very strange -- I would love to know what UKR is really up to. I suspect they are trying to draw local RU forces into a cauldron because UKR wants to do something nasty somewhere else nearby.

Maybe someone already posted it but Zelensky posted a video at day 100 similar to that first selfie he did w his advisors in the first days of the war. Honestly brought a tear to my eye. SEND MORE WEAPONS! SEND MORE AID! This war only ends when Russia decides to give up and go home.

"Good news, Comrades! The Great Putin has heard your pleas and is very concerned by what you have said! In fact, he has ordered us to alleviate your suffering as quickly as possible. So you are in the first wave in all upcoming attacks! Congratulations!"

Once again, excellent series of posts, thanks all. My big question for today is what is Ukraine doing in Sverodonetsk? Some smart folks are scratching their heads because this salient has no strategic value. Others say maybe it's a morale thing -- that one I highly doubt given that UKR routinely retreats when it wants to. I'm thinking UKR is fighting there to tie down & deplete RU forces. If they can do this at 'acceptable' cost it's a win. But why tie down RU forces there? Is it because UKR has something planned nearby? Maybe around Izyum? Maybe Popasne? Maybe trying to cut off & trap those salients? I don't know but there's got to be a good reason for the generally quite reasonable UKR command to be spending lives to hold this otherwise low value area. What y'all think?

Interesting. A theory that actually fits none of the known facts of the last 3 months. Genius analysis!

well said, LLF. It's insane. An entire national culture built on victimization myths when for the last 75 years they are only victims of their own gov't. Thanks to all for another round of good posts. Ex-artillery guy talks about the logistics of HIMAR type stuff: BEWARE LIBERAL SITE ENTER AT OWN PERIL https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/1/2101780/-Ukraine-Update-Not-enough-Here-s-the-challenge-of-moving-even-four-HIMARS I didn't realize each rocket can weigh 2.5 tons! So loading must be quite the operation w some kind of specialized support equipment. Can't wait for these to rain down on RU arty & LOC assets.

Those generals don't all, or even mostly, sound like they had much to do w Ukraine failure. This smells like dictator terrified of coup purging everyone in sight. I like it. I like it a lot. Shows that things in the kremlin are getting rather toasty.

Wow, I love everything about what SBurke posted here. FU Putin, fer shur. I am tired of the pants-wetting folks not standing up against an unbelievably evil regime and blaming everyone except Putin for this nonstop atrocity. How often is there actually something this simple to figure out the right thing to do? Since we don't actually know whether there's already been training on the new weapons for UKR personnel I suppose we don't really know when the new weapons will be wiping out RU artillery. That's something I'd pay to see -- RU arty getting blasted and not able to counter it. Won't be fun trying to hold that 600+km line w/o arty advantage.

well, maybe that's why the dog defected

BlackMoria, that is the most amazing AAR screen I have ever seen in my life. Wow. Tells me I can do better.

Something occurred to me today: I wonder how much of Putin's planning was influenced by looking at what non-Russian experts were saying about Ukraine's ability to resist. Not to malign those experts, as most thought UKR would fold up quickly. But looking at Putin's plan and the risk, he might have gotten some nice confirmation bias from western sources which helped him to feel OK about his risk.

This is something that each person needs to decide and I am not taking sides. To see the horrors of war can be desensitizing. To not see the horrors of war can also be desensitizing because it makes war abstract when it actually is about ripping human bodies apart. Easy to talk about glory and courage and duty until one sees someone w a face wound.

Hear that hissing sound? It's the sound of 1000 RU artillerymen pissing their pants.

well said, JonS. Multi solution approach is the way to go. Actually here in Oregon solar works really well for ~1/2 the year, pumping surplus current back into the grid. Of course, the SW US is flipping insane not requiring solar on all new construction. The load on the grid is enormous and would be zero w solar on the rooftops. I'm currently putting together the info to officially get on my local solar installer's wait list (~6 months). And best of all it pays for itself, literally, even here. I think folks get caught into an all or nothing thing on energy. First is was "renewables don't work". Then its "renewables can't do everything". As if it's some kind of all or nothing game. If renewables cut fossil fuels by 50 or 60% that would be insanely good -- ask all the folks breathing coal exhaust in china whether that would be good.

yeah, you should win an oscar or pulitzer or some such for this, well done!

I was against nuke power but now am 50-50 based on new technology that is being developed. Example is NuScale, which is located on the same site where I work (well, work there once in a while since at home last 2+ years). Modular, passive safety, VERY different than what's in use today. I've met some of the engineers -- a couple of them are Russians. https://www.nuscalepower.com/technology?utm_source=nuscalepower&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=default-3feat-1 I am posting this because imagine a world where countries like Russia (and Saudi Arabia, et al) no longer have the incredible economic power that comes w fossil fuels. Yeah, that's not a bad world.

Maybe the decreased loss of vehicles is due to smarter tactics, like simply flattening w artillery (which has a cost in logistics and shell supply). Or maybe it's because there's shortage of operational vehicles -- newer vehicles are worn down and lost vehicles are being replaced with old stuff out of mothballs -- and given RU maintenence and corruption history I suspect these vehicles have a very low readiness rate once at the front.

I think the most important factor in the continuing war is russian public opinion. Which will turn completely against Putin and the war when word leaks out that Stranger Things Season 4 has released and they can't watch it (except for the clever folks w VPNs). There will riots in Moscow, St Petersburg, Siberia will try to succeed, it will be an complete breakdown of government and empire.

I have actually been rooting for Dan/CA's Belarus domino theory, as likely or unlikely as it might be. He's been proponent (author?) of theory that fall of Lukashenko would be tipping point leading to RU collapse. I like it not because it seems likely to happen soon, but because it makes me feel good just daydreaming about it.

on current US admin, I'd say two somewhat contradictory things are true at the same time: 1. The US is not providing enough of what UKR needs and could/should provide a lot more 2. The US is providing ~10X more than any other nation So folks can choose which of these to ignore or accept, but they are both true. I accept both of these so I am glad and mad at the same time.

I am guessing Orban is paying below market prices for that RU oil, and/or is getting massive kickbacks. One thing Putin is actually smart about is knowing that people are cheap cheap cheap. A measly $1 million buys a whole lot of good will.

So Huba, you said a lot of deliveries are announced only after arrival -- good idea it seems to me. Despite most EU countries throwing out RU spies (AKA embassy staff), I am sure there's still plenty of prying eyes. But I wonder how much of the equipment coming in is actually not known by RU beforehand? And "territories w no Ukrainians" -- does that mean Crimea? the pre-feb22 donbas areas?

There's a little group of aging hippies who regularly do war protests outside the county courthouse downtown in my town. I sometimes agree w them, sometimes not (I was 100% pro-afghan invasion, 90% anti-Iraq invasion). They protest every day saying US is prolonging war, blah blah. But if these folks were Ukrainians and Putin had annexed UKR, then do they think they'd be allowed to wave signs in public like this? Do they not understand that sometimes one actually has to stand up for one's own freedom? I get that lots of wars are built on lies, but sometimes folks are actually fighting for survival. Do they ever think about Hitler? "if only the jews had spoken w Hitler using non-violent, compassionate communication, then the whole thing wouldn't have happened". There are rapid dogs in the world and they do bite.

Interesting stuff here. I agree w putting pressure on Izyum and Popasne but this does come at the cost of putting forces in the cross hairs of the main RU assets on the whole front. And it seems UKR is looking for cheap wins, not wanting to take casualties. It seems UKR generally wants to unhinge RU forces by threatening supply lines, not directly taking offensives against strong RU units, which is what I suspect Steve means by 'pressure'. I asked yesterday but didn't see much response: what is the state of the contract forces? Are there really large numbers of soldiers w contracts about to expire? And will they be allowed to leave? -- a post earlier noted pressure on contractors who want to leave. And as LLF says above, loses are still ~1 BTG per day (assuming understrength BTGs I suppose). Like Steve says above, RU getting weaker and weaker. They are now down to two tiny little areas of offensive operations -- Popasne and Sieverodonetsk, where advance are made at the rate of a city block per day. What's this going to look like by end of June for RU? Not good.