danfrodo

I just went to a sub-single A baseball game (west coast college league) at Oregon State baseball field. I think RU would definitely be at the bottom of this league and this league definitely not filled w future major leaguers. Being college baseball players, they are in a league that doesn't even pay them -- that's probably a lot like the RU army I bet. I wonder how many of those soldiers actually get their promised pay & bonuses.

I keep looking at this from perspective of Hitler after 1941 and each subsequent year. He already knows he's lost if he can't flip the chess board. So he keeps trying new offensives, except that each offensive is less likely to work than the last which was already unlikely to work. It's called desperation. 1. if you keep on current coarse you will most definitely lose, and you will personally die 2. so anything, even if only a 2% chance of success, you try. because maybe some miracle will happen. Not trying it is 100% chance of death. Trying is only 98% chance of death. So Putin has entered the Hitler-1943 phase of his reign.

Exactly. If RU wants to attack from Kherson-east toward Kyrivi Rih (sp?) that would be excellent. They can't sustain that on supplies alone. If they attack toward Zaphorizhya they have solid supply like behind them, but UKR can trade terrain and allow RU to get stretched out and ready to be cut off and destroyed. UKR has the excellent position of being able to easily shift forces on either of these fronts, while for RU anything that goes into Kherson might not get back out. And even getting anything heavy there in the first place is becoming unlikely.

as per Huba's comments above, I do like the idea of UKR stealing a march on RU. But I would do it much more locally. I think the easy crossing that UKR has in Zaporizhya might give UKR some elements of surprise. They could stage on either side of the river and make a big show of massing. Then once RU reacts switch to the other side & attack. RU would have a much harder time repositioning than would UKR, since unplanned. -- and over a big river. While UKR could steal a night march and have a couple days to hit before RU could react. Then if things get to hot when RU reinforcements arrive, pull back some after whupping up on local RU forces.

So we're seeing more & more HIMARS being used in the daytime. I wonder what that says about fear of RU counter measures.

I'd say no one bothered to looked at the strain on Germany's military because of the elephants in the room: 1. germany beat very powerful France/UK in 6 weeks 2. Russian military showed itself to be a paper tiger against tiny Finland 3. Stalin purged nearly the entire officer corps above rank of major 4. Stalin's killing machine was hated and feared by much of the populace, who would not lift a finger to save Stalin So based on the facts above, few thought Germany would have to fight all the way to Moscow. Stalin's govt would collapse after devastating German blitz and Germany could install some nice puppet. In retrospect we see the german weaknesses. Like in Ukraine now -- the weaknesses only matter because the coup didn't work even though most folks thought it would (Steve excluded). Kursk: I remember when I was younger there were actually folks that argued that Germany won Kursk because RU losses were much higher. Except that any time the outcome of a battle is that you spend the next month retreating +200km cannot exactly be considered a success. Pisky will be another realtime test of the belief that RU is spent offensively. If in another week RU is still stuck there, it's another data point in favor of the 'spent RU' camp (a growing camp).

Most definitely the above. UKR in most any sector on the front can retreat w/o facing disaster. RU in Kherson cannot. The thinner that front gets the more firepower UKR can bring onto rear areas that should be farther back but have no where to go. what's the range of 82-120mm mortars, like 5-8km? Not much retreat and UKR has mortars hitting nearly all the way to the river. That's a disaster, when there's nowhere that's not under inexpensive enemy fire. I would not want to be in this kessel, no no no.

So given that these engines are already old and many sat unused for a long time, do you think the 250 hours might actually be optimistic? Parts like rubber seals degrade not just w usage but w time. Of course, the fact that we are seeing ancient tanks on the battlefield already tells us much about the state things for RU.

On a +600km front, there's bound to be shortages of arty, tanks, etc, in many spots on the front. The question comes down to how much of this is due to choice. I'd thin out where I could to put mass in other places and to build up reserves. That's a different case from every machine and man is already at the front. For Ukraine, I hope it's somewhat more by choice than for Russia (somewhat redundant to what Steve just said, he posted while I was just finishing this)

Putin sentences Britney Griner to 10 years. This is so N Korea. Kidnapping an american citizen who came to his s-hole country by invitation. Damn him.

Maybe folks should not just jump down Aragorn's throat for every one sentence post he makes. All he said was that he believed it was better to search out and destroy those that were planning attacks. Can disagree w/o disparaging Aragorn. (coming from someone who has gotten in lots of trouble here on the forum for disparaging certain public figures)

I hope they managed to hit those ferries along w the bridge. The ferry spends the majority of its time in one of two spots, so even w/o realtime targeting could still take some high probability shots at it. So let's review: Two RU supply trains destroyed last few days -- huge amount of supplies lots plus the rail line is blocked in two spots. RU rail bridge recently damaged. Multiple supply depots obliterated. Kherson west area cutoff from Kherson east area by dropping bridges over that north-south river bisecting the RU bridgehead. And RU recently put more units in this kessel recently meaning supply needs have gone up. Sounds like maybe RU will try an offensive on left bank toward Zaprorize in an attempt to take the heat off Kherson. But there's a lot of space between RU front lines and anywhere that really threatens UKR strategically or operationally. So go ahead, RU, make that move. This seems like a good time to start poking the bear in Kherson (w various probes & feints) to force him to expend ammo foolishly. UKR can leave Pisky and no crisis. RU is stuck in Kherson for epic history-book-laughing disaster. I prefer UKR's position right now.

Yeah, I am picturing Eisenhower walking into the first big staff meeting during battle of the bulge, seeing map and wetting his pants . Oh wait, I mis-remembered that. He actually said something about the great opportunity provided by the germans leaving their defenses. (Note, I don't think anyone here on the forum is wetting their pants, but the pundit world probably will be) Current situation is on-going murder, but everything RU gets comes at much greater cost to RU than to UKR. And if RU decides to keep its arty doing massed fire on this small sector then it's an opportunity for UKR CB fire. Plus RU is plowing through shells that aren't going to be available elsewhere, all to take one town that is still very, very far from Bakmut. This is unsustainable for RU. Meanwhile they are weakening this front to shore up Zaporize & Kherson. So if they couldn't advance w everything in the donbas, how they gonna do it w less? RU transferring troops from around Izyum to the west means UKR can move troops also, or try to cut the road thru Izyum, creating another crisis for RU. Maybe I'll be proved wrong and this really is the beginning of a local disaster. But what I see if RU offensives have been getting smaller and smaller and smaller, until the little town of Pisky is the only 'major' thing going right now.

This youtube channel is GREAT! It's week by week ww2 w special episodes now & then. All theaters. Currently they are in 1943 for the weekly episodes. Kursk just ended and RU pushing hard on german lines over very broad fronts. We all know what's gonna happen but great to see it w animated maps and excellent writing/narration. And there's lots I don't know that surprises me.

Is there a known reason for his disappearance?

I find that to be truly heartbreaking. Thanks Putin. I wish enough Russians would start to care about this and turn out in the streets in big enough numbers that the police can't simply pick them off and thrown them in buses for detention.

Indeed, indeed. The question for me is at what cost to themselves RU moves forward. Are they depleting themselves such that UKR's (hoped for) reconquest becomes easier? If so, then retaking places like Pisky at some point becomes easy because RU will actually withdraw because they are collapsing in other sectors and need to pull back. But that all remains to be seen. In the meantime, RU's program of "ravaging the lands and peoples" continues. And it only costs RU its military and economy now and in the future. Seems like a bargain to Putin, I suppose.

I think we might be overreacting to Pisky. Does losing Pisky constitute a crisis? According to someone on the ground there's a local lack of artillery, and that's bad, but for all we know UKR is moving more arty to the area. Let's also note that RU is able to mass arty only on this single, tiny little sector. Does that tell us something? It's not like they are flattening huge sectors of even that area, let alone across a broader front. RU took a few weeks of relatively low action to prepare for its next offensive -- and it's attacking on a front this small? I get that RU is hitting lots of places, but it's not flattening lots of places. So I don't think we can conclude from this that RU is going to smash UKR. We also can't conclude that UKR has an artillery crisis (I want more, much more arty sent, of course). If RU gets Pisky they will act like it's the greatest prize in the world, but it's not. It's just on stop on the road to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. And if it took them multiple weeks to set up for this grand offensive, it shows weakness not strength. They'll have to repeat this over & over & over & over to get anywhere important.

I agree w Steve on Kherson -- the risk of doing it slow and steady is what happens to the civilians. starving RU troops just means they'll break down every door looking for food. Tough, tough decisions ahead. UKR also in need of a more obvious victory. Most folks here know that every day that bleeds RU army is a victory, but UKR could use a nice boost all the same. Something to shatter Putin's illusions, something that even the generally brainwashed RU populace will not be able to ignore. And Kherson seems to be the best candidate.

exactly! Feasible is really a secondary concern, if it's even on the list of concerns. I know I sound like a broken record but every day I'm thinking "OMG they just keep doubling down in Kherson, how clueless can Putin be?". And every day he plumbs new depths of stupid.

y'all are thinking I know enough to mangle these old fellers. Just paraphrasing something I heard once. Obviously UKR war was an attempted coup that turned into a war. And now the reasons for that war are simply so that Putin can save face enough to survive. That's not why the war started but it's why it continues. WW1 started over various things, but it kept going because the Kaiser needed to find a way out that he could call a victory. France couldn't end the war by just walking home, they already were home. The kaiser was the only one that could simply walk away and have the war end w/o anyone losing territory. But hey, it's all about the optics, no? what's a million dead when the only other choice is I look bad?

Ouch. So this is what it feels like when your ammo dump gets hit. Not good. I hope UKR can stabilize ASAP. I am not disturbed by losing the terrain but am disturbed by the "heavy UKR losses".

Absolutely heartwarming video, TMonkeyKing. I laughed, I cried w joy, a sublime experience. Watching those orcs scurrying away from the scene was a true delight. And a whole bunch of much needed RU supplies either up in smoke or stuck in derailed railcars. And this is the rail line that's gonna feed an offensive to Kryvhi rhi?

I agree w the esteemed Dan/CA. NOthing would be better than seeing Saudi Arabia become what it should be, an uber-impoverished wind-bitten wasteland. On China, this got me thinking: Do we want to think of China as an enemy? Rival, most definitely. Potential enemy, for sure. But I wonder about throwing around enemy w a country with which we have massive trade, and where US companies are deeply ingrained. Will Chinese nationalism and pride push it to war at some point? Would sure be dumb. Spend multiple generations using the greed of capitalism (race to the bottom for wages) to become the manufacturing center of the world then throw it all away over Taiwan? War would cripple the american economy but it would destroy China's. So talk of China taking steps to prepare, financially, for war, would signal that they consider the insane somehow potentially feasible. Humans are truly unbelievable (US very much included). We seem to have a complete inability to do a basic cost-benefit analysis where war is concerned. Like drunks in a bar who think that some perceived slight is worth getting half their teeth knocked out and next day not even remembering what they were fighting about. What's the saying ?-- (paraphrase) "wars start for reasons. But once started they continue for the sake of the war itself, the reasons nearly immediately forgotten." -- WW1 being the perfect example.

A heroic, though doomed, effort, unless he gets a lot of help and financial backing. It can definitely be done. But there are reasons the costs are so high and the time so long. He has better graphics, but what's going to make his AI any better? Pathing is not simple. Decisions are not simple -- when under fire keep running to objective? Stop & shoot? Hit the dirt? run for cover? Run away? Shoot wildly on full auto while running full speed?