danfrodo

I am going with ChrisL's earlier post on naming the coming kessel -- Putin's Pocket. Which leads to a new game we can play: "what's in Putin's pocket?". Looks like lots of LPR/DPR and VDV. I have seen estimate of max of 15,000. Even 10,000 if captured would be an epic disaster for Putler. Christmas in July Anyone have any good info on what's actually in Putin's Pocket?

I am greatly hoping that UKR counter battery will make them pay for this. Two hours of shelling sounds like lots of weapons firing from same spot for extended periods.

Beleg, GribB, Steve, et al: excellent posts on where RU could possibly go, I am really enjoying your discussion, thanks much. I would like to see the Nats explain to the folks of RU, post Putin, hiow the only way to save RU is through 'victory' in UKR. Folks won't be buying that nonsense for long w the economy & country falling apart around them, let alone w nationwide mobilization. The Nats have no way forward. The 'Prags' at least have something that makes sense on the surface, even if they are way too corrupt to actually pull it off -- end the war, blame it on Putin, and promise to improve life/economy for common Russians. Of course, this will then lead to the Nats proclaiming the "stab in the back" line. Fortunately in this case, the number of veterans to whom this would most appeal is a very small portion of the young male population, unlike after WW1, where just about every military age male was a veteran. And on the subject of RU civil war, it seems we need different terms for the different types of civil war. One is war over the gov't in moscow. Another is war of separatist regions agitating for increased autonomy or even independence against whoever is in (a very weakended state of) power in moscow. -- Imagine if the fossil fuel regions of RU federation managed to break away, there would be no economy left. RU rump would be, what? Afghanistan with empty shopping malls?

Another possibility of this video is it was made to convince commanders that these guys were engaged in deadly combat, while in fact they were just fine. Like the firing down the stairwell to a point 10m away -- if there were UKR soldiers that close these guys would be hit w grenades by now. So maybe this is simply used to fool folks up the chain of command.

Good summary by Steve. Hopefully the pragmatists win out, somehow. And I've noticed in pictures from Moscow there's lots of nice lampposts near the kremlin. I hope one is nicely decorated soon w our favorite serial mass murderer. And it's once again time to test theories against reality. Theory #1 is that RU offensive power is basically spent. We'll find out in the Donbas. Theory #2A is UKR can restrict RU supplies into Kherson region sufficiently to cause RU collapse in multiple sectors or the whole front within the next few weeks (I can picture some holdouts in Kherson proper, well supplied hanging on for a little while longer). Theory #2B is that Putin regime cannot survive a collapse of Kherson region w great loss of troops, gear, and (mostly) face. Depends on theory #2A coming true. And then there's the whole RU fossil fuel debate: who's in worse trouble -- EU for having serious shortages or RU losing its only source of revenue. This one will be interesting to watch because it will say a lot about RU financial desperation. I can picture the RU accountants showing Putler the books and saying "see the red numbers, the ones with lots of digits? That means bad". Any other theories about to be tested? And still no one has offered names for the hoped-for kessel in Kherson? You can't name it afterwards, you gotta do it beforehand.

"I don't know art, but I know what I like". And that video is a masterpiece. Can't wait to see what this looks like when the sun comes up.

The loitering munitions strike. Seems very targeted, I wonder who those folks were? UKR traitors visiting their masters? Nice friends though, drove off full speed right past the wounded. I saw on another site today UKR HIMARS/other hitting fuel depots. "First they came for our ammo, then they came for our command posts, then they came for the fuel depots. then when they came for me....."

We do have evidence that these stats are no more than 2X off. Depends on one's definition of fantasy. Exaggerated? Probably. But not crazy wrong. UK thinks 25K dead. We have evidence of ~800+ tanks lost. So if we divide by 2 we get a conservative estimate. I think reality is ~0.6X what UKR reports -- as if I know anything, but that's my gut feel. Fantasy is what RU reports. Divide all that by 10 or 20.

thanks for starting this post. I won't insult the forum by pretending to be any good at this kind of tactical combat. I often struggle w these kinds of forces, still. I'm definitely looking forward to what the smarter folks have to say.

ah I see. You are worried that UKR is being too clever by half. Which is a good point. Delay opens up more opportunities for unforeseen events -- as does haste also, I suppose Do I care if RU doubles it's combat power in Kherson region? I actually want that. Just more mouths to feed and vehicles to fuel over sporadically viable pontoon bridges, which will be all they have.

It's obvious how Kherson could be a trap for RU. How could it be a trap for UKR? And while I am aware that I am swimming in my own confirmation bias, it does seem that Kherson has that whole "dictator says hold at all costs this untenable position for political reasons". Yeah, this could shape up nicely. Have we decided on a name if this turns into a kessel? -- Kherson-ingrad? Kherson Pocket 2.0? Something better?

Wow, this is fascinating. GrigB, YOU ARE DA MAN!

I am not pro-nuclear power. But do we have a f--ing choice? We are baking the planet and need something to get us from fossil fuels to something better. But something better might take some time. I am aware that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by evil scientists and commie politicians. But what I don't understand is how they convinced all the world's thermometers to start lying also. And so we find ourselves being held hostage by a petro-fascist who is disrupting the entire world economy, especially the EU. Because we didn't take the evil, scheming, lying scientists seriously. Edited note: my current weather: Monday 97F, today 97F, then 96,96,94,92. In a place where historicially almost no one even had air conditioning. And last year we hit ~113F in the famous heat dome incident. yeah, nothing to see here folks, all just a hoax, dang lying thermometers.

Well, looks like some good news on this Monday. Evidence of some nice weapons heading for Ukraine. And evidence of (as per dan/CA) of Putin choosing to lose both the territory and the army -- Hitler would be proud. A new Kherson pocket being formed. Oh please please please put all that stuff from the trains into the kessel. UKR needs the gear, the supplies, and the prisoners for swapping. And I am hoping we are done w the utterly pointless 'degrees of evil' discussion? Those were hashed out over hundreds of posts thru varying threads for years on the WW2 pages. I am on board w Mattias, from post above, the present situation is what matters. what is happening now is serial mass murder that will not stop until forced to stop. And hopefully will be weakened to the point where it doesn't have the power to threaten its neighbors for a generation.

the NATO expansion as excuse for Russian serial mass murder & conquest is hilarious. Free, sovereign nations joined NATO because they were terrified of Russia. Russia then proves all those nations wrong by performing serial mass murder and a war of conquest on Ukraine, solely because it was the most valuable free, sovereign nation that hadn't joined NATO. Really, a fantasy writer couldn't dream up this stuff any better..

I continue to be astounded at how incredibly stupid RU has been on the international propaganda. The correct way to run this war is to say this is an internal conflict since Ukraine is part of Russia. Repeat it over and over and over and over. Continually say how RU is not a threat to anyone. continue to say how RU can be trusted in business dealings by keeping gas flowing. Instead Putin has taught us that he is a rabid dog that will never stop trying to take more territory and undermine democracies. After Ukraine, they have stated they will conquer Poland, the Baltics, they will make Finland and Sweden pay for joining NATO, along w nuking the UK. It's really just incredibly stupid. The western pro-RU factions, which should be working to undermine the war effort (Tucker Carlson, et al), don't have a leg to stand on once RU starts talking about invading and nuking all of the EU.

reduction of speed limit is the compromise they chose? Wouldn't increased investment in solar/wind/other have been a better tradeoff? seems rather odd, small effect. We're between rock & hard place. If we need to displace fossil fuels ASAP, nuclear is probably req'd.

Let me get this straight: RU warhawk reporting offensives will begin out of the Kherson bridgehead. This is hilarious. The one supply route has just been shown to be vulnerable to destruction any time UKR chooses. Of course, IMO this is great news. Yes, RU, please place more stuff on the right bank. To even say such nonsense is really breathtaking. this is a fascinating look at just how delusional folks can be.

great news. Four months in or near the front lines? Ouch. Also could explain lack of UKR counteroffensives thus far. The frontline soldiers need to rotate out for extended rest, refit, & possibly some re-training.

Just noticed the latest posts on this. Absolute masterpiece. Dang, I gotta get outta this day job & house maintenence gig and pursue my true calling full time, CM. Just skimmed this so far, after work will get a bowl of ice cream and savor this. THANKS for all the effort you put into this.

A good post today on DailyKos. Sums things up nicely, might be having private side chats w TheCapt and Steve, since they all seem to have the same talking points. One thing I didn't know was how much progress was being made on the Melitopol front, toward Tokmak, which would sever a critical rail line linking east-west RU stolen landbridge. And it does seem that Herr Putler is quite wisely reinforcing Kherson. "Yes, please, send more to Kherson -- do you have any BMP3s & T90s left? We love those. And if you could pull them off the Melitopol axis it would be greatly appreciated. Also be sure to consolidate your artillery ammo for more efficient distribution. Yours Truly, V Zalensky PS: keep it up, you are a super genius. Victory is in sight!" LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/21/2111620/-Ukraine-update-Ukraine-s-upcoming-strategy-is-starting-to-take-shape-look-to-the-southeast

So RU is primed for a big disaster in Kherson region! Significant forces there and now they've been feeding even more into my dream kessel. Yeah, Putler, don't give up an inch of your stolen land! The more men there the more supplies are needed. We'll see if my dream comes true. I suspect UKR will keep pounding on the bridge until it becomes impossible to adequately supply that big Kherson force, which would needs many tons of supplies every day.

This gets to the point I am most interested in: Does Putin refuse to bend to reality and continue to try to hold the west bank? That is classic dictator choice. He can lose Kherson, or he can lose Kherson and the army holding it. Hitler continually chose the latter. My hope is he throws everything into the fight and it turns into Kherson-ingrad. Though maybe "Kherson Pocket 2.0" works also? I wonder how many tanks & APCs are in the (soon to be) kessel? If he leaves it will have a lot of negative impacts for public opinion & his standing, but he will also have some control in how he spins it. "as a good will gesture we have temporarily chosen to leave Kherson" or some such. I think UKR making it very public that Kherson will be attacked was an attempt to get RU to pull out, since it seems impossible to hold.

ohhhhhhh, it's not actually a cat -- that actually totally changes it for me, thx! I do love military-naval sci fi. back on track: So w your air force background, you think F16 is good way forward for UKR? A few months of training I think you or someone said earlier? Maintenence? Logistics? Or is F16 story just sci fi?

Folks have recommended that series to me, but I just can't get past the telepathic cat that's mentioned in the description. How can people watch RU propaganda and not figure out that it's insane? It makes alex jones look like sane.